THE COLD WAR AND THE FOUNDATIONS OF PAN EUROPEAN SECURITY

20 January 2025

The Cold War and the Foundations of Pan-European Security

During the Cold War, the international system was structured under zero-sum conditions. Two opposing power blocs—capitalist West and communist East—depended on military alliances to maintain bloc discipline and security dependence among allies.

Despite the rivalry, there were incentives to reduce tensions, given the risks of nuclear war.

The Helsinki Accords (1975) provided the foundation for a pan-European security architecture, creating common "rules of the game" for both blocs. This inspired Mikhail Gorbachev's vision of a "Common European Home" to unify the continent.

Post-Cold War Optimism

1. Gorbachev’s Initiatives:

In December 1988, Gorbachev announced significant Soviet military reductions (500,000 soldiers, 50,000 withdrawn from Warsaw Pact countries).

By November 1989, Moscow allowed the fall of the Berlin Wall without intervention.

In December 1989, Gorbachev and George H.W. Bush declared the end of the Cold War at the Malta Summit.

2. Charter of Paris (1990):

This agreement, rooted in the Helsinki Accords, emphasised ending Europe’s division and pursuing indivisible security:

"The security of every participating state is inseparably linked to that of all the others."

3. Formation of the OSCE (1994):

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) aimed to uphold pan-European security. The Bucharest Document (1994) reaffirmed the principle:

"They will not strengthen their security at the expense of other states."

NATO Expansion and Its Consequences

1. Conflict with Pan-European Security:

NATO’s expansion conflicted with America’s ambitions for global hegemony, as noted by Charles de Gaulle, who viewed NATO as a tool for U.S. dominance.

Expanding NATO divided Europe again, abandoning the principle of indivisible security by strengthening NATO at Russia’s expense.

2. Internal Warnings Against Expansion:

U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry opposed NATO expansion, recognising it would undermine peace with Russia.

George Kennan, architect of the containment policy, warned in 1997:

"This expansion would create a new Cold War... It is a fateful error."

3. American Justifications:

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright described NATO as an "insurance policy" against potential Russian aggression.

Joe Biden, then a senator, predicted a "vigorous and hostile" Russian response to NATO expansion but dismissed its significance, mocking Moscow’s warnings about closer ties with China or Iran.

Russia’s Efforts for Cooperation

1. Attempts to Join NATO:

Presidents Yeltsin and Putin explored the possibility of Russia joining NATO but were met with rejection.

Putin sought partnership with the U.S. during the Global War on Terror, only to face more NATO expansions and "colour revolutions" along Russia’s borders.

2. Proposals for Pan-European Security:

2008: Moscow proposed a new pan-European security framework, which was rejected as it would diminish NATO’s primacy.

2010: Russia proposed an EU-Russia Free Trade Zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok, aiming to integrate economies and reduce zero-sum competition. This was ignored by the West.

3. Ukraine Brightest of Red Lines:

CIA Director William Burns warned in 2008 that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a "bright red line" for Russia, likely to trigger war.

Despite this, in 2014, NATO supported a coup in Kiev, pulling Ukraine into its orbit and leading to conflict with Russia.

Collapse of Pan-European Security

1. Betrayal of Agreements:

Gorbachev lamented that NATO’s expansionism betrayed the Helsinki Accords and Charter of Paris, reversing agreements to end Europe’s division.

Putin echoed this, stating:

"The Berlin Wall fell, but invisible walls were moved to the East of Europe. This has led to misunderstandings and crises."

2. George Kennan’s Prediction:

In 1998, Kennan warned that NATO expansion would provoke conflict, which would then be used to justify NATO’s existence:

"This expansion will create a bad reaction from Russia, and the NATO expanders will say, ‘See, we told you so.’"

Impact on Europe

1. Re-dividing the Continent: 

NATO expansion revived Cold War dynamics, creating a divided Europe that is less prosperous, secure, and stable.

2. Silencing Dissent: 

Western elites demonise any opposition to NATO’s narrative, labelling critics as pro-Russian. Dissidents are censored, silencing any debate about the predictable consequences of NATO expansionism.

3. Missed Opportunities: 

The West’s refusal to consider Russia’s proposals for new security frameworks or agreements like "Helsinki-II" has deepened divisions.

Conclusion

The collapse of pan-European security was a predictable outcome of NATO’s expansionist policies. Gorbachev’s vision of a unified and secure Europe has been replaced by renewed tensions and a divided continent. The combination of arrogance, ignorance, and dishonesty by Western political elites has prevented meaningful course corrections, leaving Europe less stable and secure than before.

Read More

EUROPEAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE

18 January 2025

We keep talking about how Trump wants to pull America out of NATO, or at least make the Europeans pay a lot more for American protection and take more responsibility - not just financially - for their own defence.

But how realistic is any of this? I can’t see NATO staying together if America pulled out, and I don’t think that’s desirable either. Europe is headless, the famous Franco-German couple is broken, and there would be endless squabbles between the members over how to run a European defence function. It needs American leadership for NATO to function.

As for Europe building its own arms industry to match American quality and price - that’s a fantasy, however desirable it might sound. But Europe could run a procurement program - Airbus runs a worldwide supplier network and very successfully manages time quality and price (ask Boeing!), through configuration management and quality control on the production lines. American arms industry as supplier, the customer is king!

And this idea of Europe paying more for its defence - why should it? Paying more doesn’t necessarily mean better defence, currently it would just mean paying higher prices for the same provision. The real question is: why is there even a need for this level of defence in the first place?

This question uncovers the real problem, unresolved since the Cold War...since Mackinder indeed: the lack of a proper security architecture for Europe and its borderlands, the sea power - land power challenge. The former Soviet republics should be as they always were - a buffer space between Russia and Western Europe ( i'm not justifying Russophobia here at all or in any way, I think the fear of Russia is misplaced). But these short-term democratic leaders just keep dodging what is a very difficult and long-term project, maybe 10 to 20 years.

And let’s be honest: the first step to real European security would be for America to give up its underhand hegemonic plans to grab Russian resources. America should order a rewrite of RAND_RR3036 instead.

What do you think?

Oh yea ....

AND EUROPE WILL RISE AGAIN

Read More

UKRAINE UPDATE JAN 2025

16 January 2025

NATO was set up to secure Europe from Russia and Germany. Has it fulfilled its mission? Not really. NATO provoked this war by breaking its not-one-inch-east promise at the end of the cold war. NATO rejected Russia’s reasonable security concerns, welched on Minsk, sabotaged Istanbul, and for three years refused to talk to Russia. In 2008 it promised that Ukraine would join NATO and in 2014, NATO supported the coup in Kiev, despite strong advice that this would lead to war.

As to Ukrainians themselves, most did not support NATO membership in 2014. At the time of the coup, only 20% of Ukrainians supported NATO membership, so NATO’s actions lacked democratic support in Ukraine and were not wanted.

NATO made no attempt at finding a peaceful settlement to its conflict. Minsk was not implemented, Istanbul was sabotaged, offers of talks were ignored, RAND was commisioned to offer detailedadvice on how to weaken Russia, western publics were brainwashed with russophobic propaganda.

NATO failed to defeat Russia on the battlefield, sanctions failed to collapse the Russian economy, and diplomacy failed to isolate Russia.

As to global alliances and restructuring, Russia has strengthened its alignment with China and shifted its economic focus towards the East, we now have BRICS+ whose purposes include protection from a bullying West.

The biggest losers from this war are the people of Ukraine who've endured the greatest suffering, suffered the heaviest casualties and seen their country devastated.

But Europe is not far behind. It too has faced significant defeats - loss of security, economy wrecked, political overthrow by the populists, reduced to geopolitical irrelevance.

Long-term, NATO’s (America's, for the globalist neocons bear unique responsibility for The Defeat of the West)  approach has entrenched an East-West divide that will endure for decades, Russia has turned away from Europe and the West and towards Asia and the East.

Bibliography

https://youtube.com/shorts/zozFJVU4Thc?si=s3Hs5tSonAqJwhjM

Read More

THE PERILS OF ESCALATION WITH RUSSIA

15 January 2025

The Perils of Escalation with Russia

https://youtu.be/rq4J8kXvWfA?si=z-IKsxUcRkTWdXAg

The article warns of the risks of continued Western escalation in the Ukraine conflict, highlighting the potential consequences of misinterpreting Russia's threats and capabilities.

1. Escalation Misconceptions:

The West’s pattern of dismissing Russia’s deterrent threats has led to complacency, with many viewing Putin’s nuclear rhetoric as mere bluff.

However, escalation dynamics are unpredictable and non-linear, with deferred pressures potentially leading Russia to act decisively in the future.

2. Conventional and Nuclear Risks:

Russia’s development of advanced weapons like the "Oreshnik" hypersonic missile allows for powerful, calibrated responses without resorting to nuclear weapons.

While nuclear use remains unlikely, tactical deployment is not impossible and poses significant risks.

3. Russia’s Growing Military Strength:

Contrary to expectations, Western support has prolonged the war, allowing Russia to transform its latent power into tangible military capability.

Russia’s efficient production of artillery, access to critical resources, and partnerships with allies like China and Iran have bolstered its war-making capacity.

4. Ukraine’s Weakening Position:

Ukraine faces critical manpower shortages and strained resources, making institutional breakdown or capitulation more likely over time.

Russia’s resolve, driven by perceived NATO threats to its security, remains stronger than Western assumptions of imperial ambition.

5. Western Strategy Flaws:

The West lacks "escalation dominance" over Russia, undermining efforts to coerce Moscow into favorable negotiations.

Current strategies risk backfiring, further eroding Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

6. A Call for Policy Shift:

The article advocates abandoning attempts to negotiate from a position of unattainable strength.

It suggests that accommodation with Russia, though unpalatable, is the most practical and moral path to ending the war.

Prolonging escalation will only worsen Ukraine’s plight and force the West to confront harsher terms later.

Read More

CHIANG MAI IS A RECTANGULAR CITY - HOW DID THE ANCIENTS POSITION THE CITY WALLS

29 December 2024

1. Overview of the Rectangular-Shaped City Construction Theory

The theory explains how Chiang Mai, a rectangular city, was constructed using ancient methods to align its walls and moat with the cardinal directions (north, south, east, west).

It draws on advanced techniques involving sunlight, shadows, and precise measurements, reflecting the wisdom of ancient civilisations.

---

2. Key Principles

Alignment with Cardinal Directions:

The city's layout aligns perfectly with the four cardinal points for accuracy and symbolic meaning.

Use of Shadows and Geometry:

The process relies on the shadow of a pole to determine the directions.

Triangular measurement tools (Jua) and ropes are used to calculate positions and create squares.

---

3. Step-by-Step Process

1. Levelling the Ground:

A large flat area is created for accurate measurements.

A pole (14 metres) is set vertically using plumb lines.

2. Marking Shadows:

The shadow of the pole is traced throughout the day.

Positions at morning and afternoon are used to create a curved shadow line.

3. Establishing Directions:

Ropes are used to stretch diagonally from morning and afternoon shadow points to identify cardinal directions.

A plus-sign-like layout is created for further staking.

4. Square Layout:

A square is drawn using stakes and ropes, centred on the crossing point of cardinal directions.

5. Expanding the Layout:

Additional calculations extend the square into larger shapes to define the city’s moat and walls.

---

4. Significance

The process ensures:

Highly accurate city planning.

Symbolic alignment with the cosmos and cultural beliefs.

Practicality for defence and urban organisation.

---

5. Application

This method was used not only for Chiang Mai but also reflects broader Eastern architectural practices like Angkor Wat.

It highlights the sophisticated understanding of geometry and astronomy in ancient city planning.

29 Desember 2024

1. Gambaran Teori Konstruksi Kota Berbentuk Persegi Panjang

Teori ini menjelaskan bagaimana Chiang Mai, sebuah kota berbentuk persegi panjang, dibangun menggunakan metode kuno untuk menyelaraskan tembok dan paritnya dengan arah mata angin utama (utara, selatan, timur, barat).

Teori ini memanfaatkan teknik canggih yang melibatkan sinar matahari, bayangan, dan pengukuran yang presisi, mencerminkan kebijaksanaan peradaban kuno.

---

2. Prinsip Utama

Penyelarasan dengan Arah Mata Angin:

Tata letak kota ini selaras sempurna dengan empat titik mata angin utama untuk memastikan akurasi dan makna simbolis.

Penggunaan Bayangan dan Geometri:

Prosesnya bergantung pada bayangan sebuah tiang untuk menentukan arah.

Alat pengukur berbentuk segitiga (Jua) dan tali digunakan untuk menghitung posisi dan membuat bentuk persegi.

---

3. Proses Langkah demi Langkah

1. Meratakan Tanah:

Sebuah area datar yang luas dibuat untuk pengukuran yang akurat.

Sebuah tiang (14 meter) didirikan secara vertikal menggunakan garis tegak lurus.

2. Menandai Bayangan:

Bayangan tiang dilacak sepanjang hari.

Posisi bayangan pagi dan sore digunakan untuk menciptakan garis bayangan melengkung.

3. Menentukan Arah:

Tali digunakan untuk meregang secara diagonal dari titik bayangan pagi dan sore untuk mengidentifikasi arah mata angin.

Tata letak seperti tanda tambah dibuat untuk penancapan lebih lanjut.

4. Membuat Tata Letak Persegi:

Sebuah persegi digambar menggunakan patok dan tali, dengan pusat pada titik perpotongan arah mata angin.

5. Memperluas Tata Letak:

Perhitungan tambahan memperluas persegi menjadi bentuk yang lebih besar untuk menentukan parit dan tembok kota.

---

4. Pentingnya Proses

Proses ini memastikan:

Perencanaan kota yang sangat akurat.

Penyelarasan simbolis dengan kosmos dan keyakinan budaya.

Kepraktisan untuk pertahanan dan organisasi perkotaan.

---

5. Penerapan

Metode ini digunakan tidak hanya untuk Chiang Mai tetapi juga mencerminkan praktik arsitektur Timur yang lebih luas, seperti Angkor Wat.

Hal ini menunjukkan pemahaman yang canggih tentang geometri dan astronomi dalam perencanaan kota kuno.

Read More

EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE BY DANIEL GOLEMAN book summary

Summary of key themes and insights from Emotional Intelligence by Daniel Goleman:

 

---

1. Definition of Emotional Intelligence

Goleman popularises the concept of emotional intelligence (EI), which he defines as the ability to:

• Recognise, understand, and manage our own emotions.
• Recognise, understand, and influence the emotions of others.

Emotional intelligence is presented as a distinct form of intelligence that differs from traditional measures of IQ (cognitive intelligence).

---

2. Components of Emotional Intelligence

Goleman identifies five core components of EI, grouped as follows:

1. Self-Awareness

   • Recognising one’s emotions and their impact.
   • Accurate self-assessment of strengths and weaknesses.
   • Developing self-confidence based on an honest perception of abilities.

2. Self-Regulation (or Self-Management)

   • Managing or redirecting disruptive impulses and moods.
   • Thinking before acting.
   • Maintaining trustworthiness, integrity, and an openness to change.

3. Motivation

   • Having the drive to pursue goals with energy and persistence.
   • Remaining optimistic even in the face of setbacks.
   • Developing a passion for internal reasons (e.g., personal growth) rather than external rewards.

4. Empathy

   • Understanding others’ feelings and perspectives.
   • Anticipating and meeting others’ needs.
   • Cultivating compassion, tolerance, and open communication.

5. Social Skills

   • Building strong relationships, rapport, and networks.
   • Managing conflict, finding common ground, and fostering cooperation.
   • Communicating clearly, leading effectively, and creating positive influence.

---

3. The Importance of EI Over IQ

A core argument in the book is that traditional IQ accounts for only a limited portion of an individual’s success and personal well-being. Emotional intelligence, Goleman contends, can be a better predictor of:

• Relationship quality
• Leadership ability
• Adaptability
• Overall success in life and work

He illustrates how high cognitive intelligence (IQ) does not guarantee good emotional or social outcomes, whereas strong EI skills often correlate with more fulfilling interpersonal relationships and personal achievements.

---

4. Effects in Childhood and Adolescence

Goleman dedicates significant attention to how emotional intelligence begins to form early in life and how:

• Parenting styles and supportive environments can nurture emotional competencies.
• Academic settings can integrate emotional literacy into curricula to help children develop self-awareness, self-regulation, and empathy.
• Early EI development predicts future success in relationships and careers as it underpins social and emotional well-being.

---

5. The Brain and Emotions

The book explores neuroscientific underpinnings, detailing how:

• The amygdala triggers emotional responses, sometimes hijacking rational thinking in high-stress situations (“amygdala hijack”).
• Prefrontal cortex helps regulate impulses and mediate emotional responses.
• EI involves enhancing neural pathways that allow us to pause, reflect, and respond more thoughtfully to emotional stimuli.

---

6. EI in the Workplace

Goleman highlights how emotional intelligence manifests in professional settings:

• Leadership effectiveness is strongly tied to EI competencies (empathy, communication, conflict resolution).
• Productive teams often rely on high emotional intelligence among members—those who manage their emotions and collaborate empathetically.
• EI can be developed through coaching, feedback, and intentional practice, making it a skill set that grows over time.

---

7. Improving Emotional Intelligence

Crucially, Goleman maintains that emotional intelligence is malleable, providing guidelines such as:

• Self-awareness exercises: journaling moods, reflecting on reactions.
• Self-regulation techniques: mindfulness, stress management, and relaxation strategies.
• Empathy training: active listening, perspective-taking, and open-ended questioning.
• Social skill practice: constructive feedback, conflict-resolution workshops, and leadership training.

---

8. Lasting Impact

Upon its release, Emotional Intelligence profoundly influenced:

• Personal development programs: Many schools and workplaces incorporated EI training into curricula.
• Leadership models: Increasing focus on empathy, collaboration, and relationship management.
• Ongoing psychological research: Sparked deeper investigations into non-cognitive skills and well-being.

Read More