GIVE US THE FACTS

25 August 2023

Can the MSM tell us the truth about anything  or is it simply the official voice of government ?

Stop telling the public stories, "narratives", just give us the facts and let us form our own opinion. We don't need the MSM to tell us what to think. If a broadsheet has an opinion that they want to broadcast, then by all means do so, but save it for the editorial pages - that's what they are there for.

All subscribers are interested in and paying for is "the news". The facts, the fundamentals, the truth - the facts are the basis on which liberal democracy works.

We don't want newssheets to tell us what to think, we want them to tell us what's going on.

For example, an article is written on training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16, but there's rather more to it than that of course. The choice of airport, the lengthening of runways, all of the associated infrastructure and the supply chain for maintenance and repairs.

In particular, if there are any take-off and landing strips left in Ukraine, which ones will the F-16 be using or will they be flying out of Romania or Poland - in other words are we heading to World War 3?

Plus, what about the numbers? Russia currently has over a thousand equivalent or superior fighter jets and those numbers are increasing. The F-16 is a generation four I am told, whereas the new models coming out of Russian factories are fifth generation.

And a final point worth thinking about is that it's not obvious the Russians would agree to a frozen conflict, nor indeed would Europe ( there are elections of public officials within this time scale representatives who represent us). Strikes me that within the timescale of this F-16 program, the war will be over with Russia in charge, the Russians will have reached the borders of Poland and there will be nothing left of Ukraine.

So this is the new iteration of the old American plan to defeat Russia in Ukraine and with a new government in the Kremlin, bring Russia into the Western sphere for the showdown with China that America expects.

And it's all the MSM tells us about. The plan to escalate with F-16 but without the downside risks.

But what if this plan is based or delusions or simply-put, doesn't work? What if Russia passes further into the Eurasian camp? What if the western public object to this war? What if there will be no showdown with China because China doesn't play ball as it is not looking for military victory, it is looking for commercial opportunity? So lot's of What-ifs that I'd like to know more about.

And most basic and general point of all for the MSM: give us the facts and let us make up our own mind! At the moment the MSM are just giving us the "case for the prosecution", but there is also the "case for the defense" that we would like to hear.

"But what if it doesn't work?"

The neocons have been in charge for at least the last 30 years ... have any of their foreign policy adventures worked out successfully? Why should this one be any different?

So really lots of doubts about America's claims and plans and lots of sadness for the Ukrainian people and European taxpayers.

Lots of hope too that Europe can rise again (even though it may take a generational change for us to get rid of our mediocre leadership).

The MSM needs to present these truths and give us a balanced presentation for us to make up our own minds and return the feedback to our representatives. That is the safeguard of the liberal democracy.

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BRICS CURRENCY

21 August 2023

Worth defining a few terms.

1. Common currency. I gather because alliance means enemy and China wants money not military there may be bloc(s) and banks, but not inter-operable military stuff. Believe it when I see it.

2. Also, not see this as "closing the parenthesis" on Western liberal democracy and human rights. No, we would like these good things back please. But recognise that there are other, what you might characterise as "top down" ways of organising a society ... eg traditionalist:

https://youtu.be/Fzj2Odt6HRo

3. The BRICS+ is the original famous five, plus there are I gather 24 applicants and 50 countries will be in attendance at the conference 22-24 Aug 2023, so anyway  BRICS+ means the admitted membership.

4. Will there be a BRICS+ common currency? 

The USDollar likely has another 10, 20 years left in it as reserve currency. The idea is that each member should fix a parity with gold by weight - so by weight not by price. Then the dollar value of what an ounce of gold would buy in that currency will vary on the day. As a concept and practise, this takes quite a bit of mental gymnastics to figure out what it means.... just picture yourself as an Asian manufacturer looking to buy propylene polymers off Saudi Arabia. You can pay in yen into the Asia Development Bank and the bank will pay Saudi Arabia in dinars, with the conversion rate of USD to a unit of gold being the common factor. Com-pli-ca-ted.

5. Categories of governance. Not think in terms of kleptocracies V rule-of-law countries, after all the greatest fraud ever perpetuated on this planet was the GFC great financial crisis;

and what is the idea behind sanctions if it isn't for the American / EU gov.ts to illegally use their power to confiscate property that is not their own, for political purposes.

Also not useful to split the world by autocracy / democracy because for example Brazil and India are both democracies, while Gore and Trump can complain the election was stolen.

Nor Colonial Powers vs ex-Colonised

6. Best to depoliticise and desensitise and try to see the world in all its objective detail as it is in reality and context, if that is at all possible, at least before exercising our personal or groupthink prejudices and preferences.

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WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE UK ECONOMY - PT 3

20 August 2023

Most people reading this question would give a financial kind of answer rather than others who think the problem is down to a mediocre political leadership.

And most people would say that the UK's problems come from its being a declining great power that doesn't really recognise this reality of decline, and doesn't see that the problems it has are a result of its past successes and a country that generally suffers from too much nostalgia ie living on its past.

DEMOCRACY

People have doubts over the state of democracy in the UK, but we should remember that the elite did eventually recognise the Brexit vote in some way and when there was a problem last year in the LDI market, the prime minister and chancellor were given the heave-ho. 

So perhaps we have fewer problems than in America, where a complete outsider got to run the White House and when he couldn't run it anymore, tried to ransack it. And now the incumbent president has instructed his Department of Justice to find all kinds of charges to imprison his political opponent. 

In the UK, there doesn't seem to be the same level of abuse of the Constitution, nor the same growing civil unrest as there is in the States.

ECONOMIC FACTORS

To know what's wrong with the UK, take a look at long run productivity, growth, investment, equality of income, distribution of wealth and income (smaller countries do better incidentally, the UK is big), regional inequality (London & SE is very wealthy, the rest of the country is poor) all of which show a poor UK performance relative to the EU and US.  

INVESTMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY

Investment and productivity are the problems that Teresa May and Liz Truss, former British prime ministers, tried to address and got booted out for their trouble (May for Brexit too). Investment should be seen as key to the UK's problems and there has been a recent change letting pension schemes invest more broadly in the markets than just government bonds .

TAX

Actually the UK is quite a low tax country and this is reflected in the poor services compared with say France which is the most highly taxed in the world I think....so some have left!

GFC, BREXIT, COVID, WAR

The financial crisis damaged the UK economy more than any other major economy because it is so paper-based ie runs on fibancial products rather than real like manufacturing or commodities. And Brexit delivered another hammering, but strikes me this was the result of the elite greed at the GFC. And the UK was the slowest to recover after covid.

Each time and especially after Brexit the pound got a bit weaker. Trade-ways, Brexit also meant that the UK lost exports to the EU as it found itself on the outside of fortress Europe, but on the other hand imported more than it would have done had it not left, as it remained an open economy.

CURRENCY, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

It seems - according to the experts - that between an uncertain currency and an uncertain export market, investment suffered and this, as has been stated, is key to all the problems mentioned above.

IMMIGRATION

There were thousands of people each year quitting the EU and migrating to the UK, but this is rare since Brexit. Brexit had the opposite effect and succeeded in cutting EU immigration. 

But on the other hand between Hong Kong and Ukraine plus the boat people, immigration has absolutely soared from non-EU countries. 

WORK FORCE, STATE WELFARE

This is really important for the future quality of the labour force and for some sectors like agriculture and domestics, hotels and restaurants. I can't work out if this rejuvenates demographically - Peter Zeihan has not addressed this. Anyway, Brexit failed take back control of our borders. Furthermore the pandemic meant that the proportion of working-age people not in work rose quite dramatically, but for the UK this continued even after the pandemic whereas for all other developed economies that proportion returned to trend and continues to fall. 

Seems the British are becoming more and more lazy, I don't know about the US - maybe it's the Anglo-Saxons becoming fed up with their system and leadership, or maybe it's that low taxes mean low health and welfare, poor housing and inadequate education for a hi-tech economy.

RECESSION, REVOLT

Now consider what a recession would mean. It would mean even more decline in real wages and a smaller tax base. Austerity lowers welfare, and however conservative and well-behaved are the British, you'd think that after a time this would create very serious political problems.

PUBLIC DEBT

The UK is a debtor nation and depends on foreigners having confidence in its economy enough to buy its government bonds. I just wonder that if we are a declining former superpower, how much longer that confidence will hold and what is the link to interest rates?

INFLATION ORDER

Plus inflation and recession, higher taxes and austerity, and what effect will this have on public order and stability of governments given rhe UK has had three in the last year?

UK debt is about average for a developed economy, the tax base is below average, the regulatory framework is about average, so it doesn't look like cutting taxes and regulations could be a solution.

EU

Rejoining the EU now that almost 6 out of 10 Brits (up 20pc from the referendum) would be in favour of that could be a boost for exports. But would the EU have rhe UK back, and on what favourable terms?

DEREGULATION FTA CUSTOMS UNION

Just consider...If the UK cannot be a free trade economy with Singapore-type rules because we are already as deregulated as is possible; and if free trade agreements with the rest of the world outside the States are not significant; and a free trade agreement with the States is impossible: then why not rejoin the EU customs union? There wouldn't be the problem of free movement of people, but we would have to align to EU product reg.s and standards on food and manufacturing, which after all ought to make industry more efficient - productivity being the key to regeneration - and no-one in industry would object to that. 

It would I think also solve the Northern Ireland Protocol conundrum, though we'd be right back where we were inrhe controversy over having to accept the ECJ, ie eat humble pie.

INTEREST RATES

Seems inflation and interest rates have hit UK worse than any other G7. 

G7 GLOBAL SOUTH

But the G7 as a whole is failing wrt the Global South.

EM STATUS

These factors make you think that the UK is retrograding to an emerging market status where it's bonds and equity markets drop in value, FDI drops and if Singapore on Thames is the scenario then the regulatory apparatus is weakened as well. 

Our wages, standard of living and industrial economic devt are all on the slide, as we've talked about in other articles here. But by way of context, we should bear in mind that all Western powers are facing a rate of economic decline relative to the emerging Global South.

REJOIN

But getting closer to the EU, albeit at the risk of joining a sinking ship, does offer some hope of a revival in the UK's fortunes. It would help the UK retain its status as a financial centre. 

It might also provide the tax revenue to improve the UK's education and workforce skillset, not just for those at the bottom, but also for the mediocre elite at the top. And more jobs in new areas like technology and IT, AI and cyber, improve workforce competencies. 

Welfare could over time help social and cultural integration, let's call it. 

So perhaps the UK could reverse out of the decline to EM status.

WAR

Ending the war in Europe on terms that recognise a multi-polar world - ie promote values of equality, respect, negotiation -  would undoubtedly help all Western economies and the world's. 

If only we in Europe could have the American Order, with its values, institutions and rules, but without America's bullying neo-colonial ways!

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WHO ARE THE TROLLS?

19 August 2023

Many of those sympathetic to Ukraine's cause writing in the Western MSM, broadsheets, are in fact Ukrainians living abroad, outside their country, to escape the call-up. I have met them.

They are sympathisers with Ukraine's cause, but who have fled the country to dodge the draft - but unlike Vietnam, they are not anti-war protesters. They are likely living on small incomes or the children of Ukraine's oligarch elite.

They are supported by the Ukrainian government, which means mostly Western taxpayers' money. Kiev, Zelensky and his backers, in return, expect sympathisers to write comments and to create and engage in numerous other activities supportive of war.

This is more than speculation, it is supported by statistics from the Immigration Dept.s of many European and third-world refugee destinations. These active cases are people mostly not in employment and whom we would call "trolls".

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21 August

I am coming to understand that some, most maybe, of these bloggers are in fact kids living outside Ukraine or Russia, dodging the draft, scared out of their wits, afraid, angry and many of them are just frozen with fear.

When you read their comments, you realise that they don't really have a lot to say. Their thinking is overwhelmed by these strong emotions, fears of what might happen, worries maybe of what has already happened to them or that they've witnessed.

When I look at the photos of those Ukrainians that were caught by the recruiters and assembled into fighting units, I see faces that are empty of any intelligence or just full of fear.

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WHEN TWO WORLDS CLASH - THE WORLD OF PAPER ASSETS V. THE REAL

19 August 2023

https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/real-assets/

We live in a world of paper assets v. hard assets. These worlds are more and more at war and many International Relations experts see a non-peaceful resolution of the conflict later this decade, with a New, or Reformed, World Order to be built in the mid-30s, doubtless by Gen X - who get things done - when they take over from the Boomers who were not very good at maintaining institutions.

The paper is the US dollar and all the financial assets like derivatives and so on and banks that hang off this. It is the world of the Western powers, the G7, former colonial masters, the institutions created by America after the last war with the rules for global trade and safeguarding the sea-lanes. It is the world of the US dollar reserve currency and the US debt pile.

The hard assets is a slowly emerging BRICS common currency anchored in the price of gold by weight (by weight - price can vary) and all the commodity and other hard assets, organised through several banks competing with the IMF and World Bank. It is the world of the BRICS, the G20, the Global South. The institutions being created eg at the next BRICS Conf 22-24 August, after the (failure of) war, the (failure of) sanctions, with the rules for global dominance written but revised by Washington (there's Intl Law, then there's "Our" law - the US is not signatory to many rules it imposes on others...). It is the world of a possibly emerging reserve currency, based on trade and diplomacy rather than dollar-dominance and war.

For readers thinking it is a good idea to stay top-dog or allied to top-dog, keep a couple or three things in mind:

We are evolving into a multipolar world which means that it is no longer exclusively the West or America that makes the rules therefore certain respect and power sharing and notion of equity is needed.

When other regimes appear to be in competition with the US or outright hostilities, it is best not to resolve Conflict by military means since the chances of decisive victory is near zero these days, negotiations are to be favored as they lead to win-win situations where both sides are more likely to reach a sustainable agreement.

If you have widely supported institutions making agreed upon rules and if you resolve conflicts by peaceful rather than military or by economic sanctions, then you are likely to keep up the trade flows which is after all what funds the dollar and American debt.

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WESTERN WISHFUL THINKING AND ITS DANGERS

17 August 2023

Article from the FT 16 August 2023.

There are a couple of things that provoke thought by the thoughtful reader. One is that this article and other articles use the West's broad stream media as a place to share - from sharing ideas right through to sharing catchy or elegant turns of phrase. The result is an impressive unanimity of understanding, but of course that is also its weakness.

Because the other "thought for the day" is how life tends to surprise. Just when the majority share an idea and the confidence that goes with that position, life has a tendency to pull the rug and we fall on our ...

So I guess the message is: share ideas by all means, but first of all share the facts, share the truth; and this will enable us to avoid irr mitigate many unforseen "blacks swan" events.

There are seven "untruths" in this article - the future belongs to those who can spot them.

8. "A negotiated outcome, therefore, remains elusive. "

This is the last para in the article and also the first true statement. For consider:

1. "The next big step would be a summit of world leaders to endorse Kyiv’s resolution formula and increase pressure on Moscow to end the war".

As at the Jeddah summit, and the sanctions, there is no support for the Ukraine outside the West. None. And the BRICS conf 22-24 August will confirm this.

2. "The restoration of Ukraine’s full territorial integrity and the protection of its people"

Kiev started the action by shelling its people in the Donbas from 2014.

3. "what began as a war of choice, under the pretext that Ukraine belonged to the “Russian world”, has now become an existential fight not only for Putin but also for Russia itself."

It began in 2008 as an existential threat to Russia when Nato said Ukraine would join - the war followed the threat from Nato, not the other way round.

4. "there were no concrete plans to grant Ukraine Nato membership; this has backfired"

The invitation in 2008 has backfired on America.

5. "Moscow no longer describes Ukrainian territories controlled since 2022 as belonging to the “Russian world”"

Where did Moscow stop claiming that Ukraine is part of the Russian world? Russia is interested in Ukraine up to the Dnieper as it is part of the Russian world.

6. "The Kremlin is increasingly coming to terms with the fact that Ukraine will neither be “de-Nazified” (there will be no pro-Russian “puppet” government in Kyiv) nor “demilitarised”, nor will it remain neutral."

This is totally made-up by the author - the author is unable to provide one shred of evidence for this wishful thinking.

7. "It is now clear to Moscow that Ukraine will probably become part of the EU and anchored to Euro-Atlantic security structures."

As per above, wishful thinking.

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NATO'S PEACE PLAN

16 August 2023

As to this plan from NATO that Ukraine cede territory in exchange for membership.

is.gd/bFnngo

What the West doesn't consider is the Russian point of view and position of strength. Russia is not looking for empire or land in this war, it is looking to its security and protection of ethnic Russians in Donbas region. In other words, even though this was NATO's next step, the point of Russia's entry into an overt military operstion is to ensure that Ukraine cannot join NATO.

The proof of this is that Putin has said he has no objection to Ukraine joining the EU, if it so wishes, and indeed he will help it, but what Russia will not accept is a Nasty regime, a NATO occupation or nuclear weapons on his doorstep 250 kms from Moscow.

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THE FURIOUS EXTREMES

14 August 2023

We all recognise that civil society is being hollowed out and that there are increasingly furious extremes but isn't the same thing the case in international relations?

Thought for today: the hollowing out of the center, where the moderates are forced out or to take an extreme position, we are all familiar with this argument and we see it happening. There is serious civil unrest, two sides opposing each other, neither will submit, each would prefer to see the whole system collapse rather than lose the argument.

We recognise this is what is happening to our civil society with all kinds of moral questions put up to destroy us.

Well, that's for civil society ... but isn't it the same for geopolitics? Look at the neocons in this proxy war in Ukraine.

Once, nuclear weapons were there to preserve the peace, the objective was preservation of the peace, this was the Pax Americana. But for the last 30 years we've had Russia refusing to accept it lost the cold war and what winds up the neocons even more is to see Russia strengthening as it has been doing since Putin began the task of restoring order to Russian Society.

The Neocons, in power in America and Europe, with Victory and Global Supremacy as their objective in International Relations, see the West's grip on global affairs being diluted . The neocons are quite ready to go to war in its most extreme forms, rather than "lose", as they see it, rather than see America lose its global hegemony, rather than concede what everyone else sees: that more and more we live in a multi-polar world.

The BRICS Summit coming up in a week will be attended by representatives from 50 countries though there are only currently five members It is evidently setting itself up to challenge the West the G7.

Not for the neocons, there is no room for negotiation or compromise, or what many would call an acceptance of the emerging new reality - such talk is labelled "appeasement" and the war, hopeless though it is, must continue, the killing and mutililations must continue, until defeat or collapse.

Seems to me now that neutrality is all but inevitable for Ukraine, alongside the loss of substantial parts of its former territory. We have the neocons to thank for this. We have a mediocre leadership in Europe in disarray and fawning behind these neocons in Washington and we have a bubbling and weeping cesspool in Europe's east west crease, where the whole purpose of the NATO alliance was the promise of Pax Americana, a permanent peace.

And next? ...

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AN OPEN CESSPOOL IN THE E W CREASE

12 August 2023

The US pushed Russia into its invasion of Ukraine and has pushed Ukraine into this counter offensive, with the lure of Nato membership if it prevailed over Russia.

Nato knew all along that the chance of military success was very small - the Wall Street Journal has made that clear in a widely-quoted article. The West seemed to have relied on sanctions although any study of the efficacy of sanctions shows that they are a non-starter. 

In full cynicism, Nato proceeded to wage this war by proxy and the US and EU to arm and train Ukrainians.

The Vilnius summit then said that Ukraine would not join NATO and Stoltenberg the Sec General confirmed this. How could Ukraine ever hope to join NATO, with the possibility of conflict always ready to reignite and under article 5 the risk of bringing NATO's boots ie America's into Ukraine on the ground and in conflict direct with Russia, a direct and hot conflict between two nuclear-armed superpowers.

The offensive is checkmated and losing ground. What is the future? 

The future for Ukraine is either defeat by Russia, opening the possibility of a negotiated settlement if Ukraine and the US recognise that Ukraine has been defeated and agrees to diplomacy, unlikely because Biden will not want defeat clouding his election campaign; or collapse of its army and society and the disappearance of the country and its government in the present form. 

The country will be neutral at any event, so the whole point of the war to bring Ukraine into NATO has been a failure.

Furthermore, Ukraine's infrastructure and its economy are completely wrecked; it has lost half a million of its brightest hopes for the future, tens of thousands are mutilated and many milliobs displaced; territorially it will be undoubtedly shrunken to about 3/4 at best of what it was pre-2014, including loss of access to the Black Sea, and possibly Poland will take over responsibility for some area in the west up to Lviv.

As to governance, the government will be replaced by one that is neutral as regards the West and Russia; and security arrangements will be made that satisfy all stakeholders, which obviously has always included the Russian Federation, limiting the number of troops, the arms, military exercises, and obviously forbidding the stationing of nuclear weapons.

Finally, the reputational damage to the US cannot be overestimated, with consequences for Nato, for the dollar and interest rates, American hegemony and China, the outcome of the presidential elections next year, relations with the EU and European governments, the rise of the global South and of a multitude of competing though equal powers in tge bew multipolar world.

This disaster, the worst in American history outside the Civil War and possibly its last, was completely foreseeable from way back in 2008 when Bush brushed aside European objections to offering NATO membership to Ukraine, if not before, and was accurately predicted by the authors of this website.

What needs to be done is for the leading newspapers publications to start accurate journalism and reporting for the sake of freedom and a free press, without which we are no better than The Rest; and for the neo conservatives in Washington, the EU and UK, to be chased out of office, possibly sent to The Hague; and replaced by rational people with rational thought-processes and thought-through goals and strategies and at least one Plan B, who want to make a success of Europe in a multi-polar world.

Lastly and most importantly, sensible arrangements need to be made for security and trade in Europe and some equivalent to the Versailles conference organised.

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EUROPE SHOULD PLAN FOR ITS INDEPENDENCE

9 August 2023

It has to be said that it was probably a mistake, or at least premature, to admit East European countries into the EU without considered trade and security policies worked out with Russia.

In fact if you look at Europe's place in the world it would have been very wise to include Russia in future plans for membership of the EU - Russia has a lot more in common with Europe than it has with Asia, and Europe would have had the chance to replace America in some Fourth Turning settlement.

Still, never say never ... it is the tired old regimes of the western powers that need updating or replacing and Europe really needs to work towards its independence, though this is a 20-year plan for Gen-Z to implement.

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Is it true that "Asians are less human" because "Russians are Asians"? Ukraine's Nasty security chief thinks so.

Once again, Ukraine today is Germany's past. And we want Ukraine and the Nasties in the EU ... really?

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/273921982/asians-are-less-humane-ukrainian-security-chief

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IS THE TYPICAL MODERN FAMILY REALLY MIXED RACE?

6 August 2023

These are photos of typical family units in America today, we are told. Is this true and if not what is going on here?

Maybe the Melting Pot worked well for America at the very beginning, but despite the 1960s Civil Rights Movement "awakening", multi ethnicity and mass immigration hasn't really worked out for ordinary people, it's led to a lot of conflict and as can be seen in the grievances of the Woke seemingly to a march towards civil war.

It would be interesting to know how significant are cultural differences, what is driving the current social conflict and why government and advertising keep bombarding us with these photos of multiethnic families.

ECONOMY AND CULTURE

People at work and in their finances all obey basic economic and business rules. When they leave work and return home however, culture is what decides behaviour. Culture is what makes social groups different - differences are not usually found in economic activity, though they do exist for example usury or ESG...

ETHNICITY AND RACE

Ethnicity is not so much about what you do, economically and culturally, but where you come from: geographically, genetically and historically. Some people call this "race".

FAMILY PROFILES

It's very obvious from this table of figures that whatever you call it - ethnicity, culture, race - it is very significant as, if I've understood that US census data correctly - it is saying that 98% of Americans live in ethnically homogeneous households.

BIOLOGY BRINGS US TOGETHER, CULTURE DRAWS US APART

This is an old wise Chinese saying. Why do peoples choose to live together within their groupings, but apart at least according to the census data? What are the characteristics that screen and separate?

CHARACTERISTICS

Some differences you can more easily see and use to define and screen a group: skin colour, language, family life styles, health parameters, diet, preferred leisure activities, dress styles.

Some are more subjective: belief systems and values incl religious; wellness practises (like ayuverdic and yoga in Hindu Bali, Shamans in S Africa, voodoo in Haiti...); art and expression; the history of a people as it is recorded.

ATTRACTION - REPULSION

According to the rules of natural selection, there's strength in diversity, we are programmed to mate with people who are different from us, but there's a point where these differences can change from being attractive to becoming quite scary as we get nearer a neighbouring species, by the often slight differences in genetic material. 

It's the objective signs that alert us and may attract us at first, to more frightening subjective cultural differences that reveal themselves later and may become controversial. We might get on fine with people from our own group, we might get on fine at work, but might not get on together with members from a different cultural group on a day-to-day basis - such as socially or in a family. 

And at the group level, ethnic or especially cultural groups themselves might have difficulty interacting with each other. This is how some people would explain race riots for example or supremacist attitudes.

So to turn to the question: why are they spinning us these photos of happy mixed-race families  when the census data paints an opposite picture? 

You could argue that despite trivial external signs like skin colour, these people in the photos are all from the same culture, they were born and grew up in the same culture, they went through the same socialising education system, they lived through the same major formative events of their youth  together like war, beatlemania or depression.

NATION STATE

If you believe in the nation state as the unit of counting, then you will see that when America was being formed, having wiped out the very different indigenous population, the founding fathers had to write a constitution and form a society from nothing and the Melting Pot worked well on such a green field site. 

But subsequently multi-ethnicity through immigration has turned out to be a growing source of conflict, with blacks who did not originally choose to emigrate watching recent immigrants overtake them. Conflict is heightened as hope is destroyed at a time of declining GDP growth, equality, real wages and opportunities. The civil rights movement of the 1960s was the awakening to these problems and the failure to address them resulted in the grievances of the Woke.

GLOBAL ELITE

If you are a member of the global elite, then you will see the world in class terms, in other words that economics and ownership of the means of production is the basic organising unit - a democratic market economy v. an autocratic state-run economy. You will want the same harmony and order found in the workplace to also reign in civic society. You will want order in place of chaos and anarchy. 

HOLLOWING OUT

As moderates leave what you might call the conflict zone, what is left is extremist groups battling each other for supremacy and caring little for the stability of the system.

If this is true, then in America, "leader of the free world", it is coming down to a straight fight between extremists on both sides: a global elite led by international Liberals and neo-conservatives, supported by the mainstream media and workplace HR departments: and a nationalist, populist, anti-establishment movement which some claim is supported at home by those who lost out in globalisation and abroad by foreign powers and enemies of America such as Russia's (now disproven) support for Trump. 

THE FOURTH TURNING

Seeing grievances and conflict mount, as a member of the elite top one percent, you'll use your leadership, your communication and marketing propaganda, to set a good example. You'll try to blend together all these cultures and ethnicities, to iron out the differences, resolve conflict and avoid your people resorting to street violence.

You'll welcome boat people or Mexicans because this will solve workplace economic and demographic problems and you'll be very confident that you can blend all these disparate peoples into one multi-ethnic culture at home as at work; just like you are very confident that you can win the war in Ukraine and maintain America's global hegemony! 

So the photos are more visionary than actual.

THE FUTURE

What is driving the current social conflict? Will things work out for this globalist elite and the American Order, or will events turn towards darkness, war and overthrow, and the emergence of a reformed or replaced Order?

We can watch history unfold before our eyes and can expect and plan for definitive outcomes by the early 2030s.

 

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