TERMS FOR A PEACE SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE

26 February 2923

The Daily Telegraph put it this way, "we are out of ideas and lack a long term strategy", which is about right.

Fact is, Russia holds the initiative on the battlefield and China diplomatically.

We are sacrificing Ukrainian lives at up to 1,000 a day dead and wounded, to save Western face.

Ukraine will always be neutral and can never join NATO. It has never, in truth, possessed Crimea (peace to Kruschev) and never will. The Donbas prefers to be under Russian govt rule while Russia has taken or will keep Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Kiev state needs overhauling and reform to give its Russian-speaking minorities the same rights as other Ukrainians, introduce democracy and free the opposition and eliminate the oligarchs and their corrupt practices.

In other words, a ceasefire and peace talks to end the stupidities.

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WHO IS DEFENDING EUROPE?

24 February 2023

In the States, there's Tulsi Gabbard who speaks the truth about this war. There was Gen Millie. Who else? And who is identifying the real threats to American hegemony that come from the neocons and this war? And who is speaking up for Europe and European independence and even our "greatness"?

Truth is, there's very little opposition to the "magical thinking" we are fed.

It's not surprising. For the last two decades leading countries from the Rest of the world outside the West have been growing restless, you might say, at the American Order. We move from cold war Bipolar world, to 1991 Unipolar, to since 2017 multipolar, with the SCO, BRICS, now Russia/China/Iran. Using its reserve currency status, America lives on credit and makes war and terrorises, in the name of "freedom and democracy" where it can't get its way.

That is the sweep of history and this war is simply accelerating America's exit as the Rest form alliances and build alternatives to the US Dollarand. That's reality.

But the magical thinking, ok call it propaganda, is needed to keep us calm while this process of being engorged takes place. 

All the nonsense that some readers who post on the DT, FT or Economist seem to believe, the role of the MSM in giving the correct swerves from the MoD to the general public...it is all to keep us in our place, believing it will all turn out for the best, rather than our leaders having to face us with reality and get massive public disobedience. It was a bit like that with covid.

But it doesn't have to be like this. If only brave politicians in Europe would stand up and call a spade a spade and create a vision for Europe instead of this hopeless, impotent, fawning at the coat-tails of America.

There's Orban and Giorgia Meloni and a couple of voices in the EU..who else?

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SAVE OUR PLANET FROM THESE OAVES

It is very easy for any mature person to attack Joe Biden and the neo cons on the conduct of its relations with Russia war, in the light of the coming scarcities of batural materials, price hikes and damage to the planet.

After all, for the last 70 or 80 years we have enjoyed an abundance of energy, commodities and products & services and all at low prices and a clean planet as well.

Now, we are entering a time where most of what we want and need will be in shorter supply, and higher in price than we can really afford, and in addition we risk destroying the very planet on which we live.

So any mature person would see terminating this war as an immediate priority, and getting back to important subjects like climate change and the energy transition as priority. 

Basically, they would say, let's save what we've got and become more efficient and effective in how we deliver growth - if there is any growth left - growth and prosperity, stop soiling our beautiful planet and avoid damaging physical conflicts.

Please, no negative replies or further warmongering. Concentrate on winning the battle to get these oaves round a negotiating table.

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WHAT DOES VICTORY IN UKRAINE LOOK LIKE?

19 February 2023

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban cautioned Europe on Saturday that it could sleepwalk into a direct armed confrontation with Russia by sending increasingly deadly weapons to Ukraine.

https://sputniknews.com/20230218/hungarys-orban-says-europe-may-end-up-sending-troops-to-ukraine-1107582191.html

"If you supply weapons, provide satellite data, train soldiers of one of the warring parties and have its entire government on your payroll, while imposing sanctions on the other party, whatever you call it but you are at war," Orban said.

At what point does the SMO end and Russia says that now the two parties are in a direct conflict ie at war with each other?

The debate at the moment is about what victory looks like.  Is it Zelensky's defn : Ukraine has reoccupied all land within its internationally defined legal border, war damages to cover rebuilding, Putin at The Hague?

Or is it something less emotional, more realisable : country divided like Korea with DMZ, the EU admits Ukraine and rebuilds its part of the country plus Ukraine gets security guarantees though not NATO membership per se, forget The Hague.

Could Russia be balkanised? 

Could Russia become like France : has an imperial, militaristic and colonial past ; but is also an "open society"(*)? 

Could Asia be flipped 180° on the vertical along the Mackinder line?

There are wars where one side soundly beats the other...then you get an insurgency...and a counter-insurgency (Iraq).

There are wars that trundle forever, dites "wars of attrition", where each grinds down the other and the host country is wrecked, till one side runs out of willpower or of ammo (Afghanistan). 

The worry here is of a third type of war, a war  of obliteration where the host country is the battlefield and one side obliterates some or all of that fated country (Ukraine?).

Maybe America is stocking up for a post-nuclear Ukraine. Who know? Noone knows, not at the present, not yet. Just keep shovelling in the billions, pile on the sanctions and wait till the supply lines break or there's an "accident" too many (Nord Stream).

(*) K. R. Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies

Karl Popper defined the open society as one "in which an individual is confronted with personal decisions" as opposed to a "magical or tribal or collectivist society."

He considered that only democracy provides an institutional mechanism for reform and leadership change without the need for bloodshed, revolution or coup d'etat.

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WHY AMERICA'S STRATEGY IS DOOMED

8 February 2022

This war with Russia goes back a long way. Why and how to find a permanent peace?

There was The Great Schism even, that's how far back. But the basic fundamental truth is (my opinion) found in the geography. Russia is a huge plain without natural borders, hence v likely it will have one regime, be one country ... one empire in a sense, as fighting originally united all the tribes.

Russia from the Urals to the Atlantic? That is the threat - a land power against a sea power.

As the plain drops down into eastern Europe, there are a series of natural breaks - Baltic Sea, Carpathian mountains, to name but two of nine. So this separates Russia, the country, from Europe.

But those natural breaks, or obstacles, have  gaps - through which Russia has been invaded over 50 times... even Canada has invaded Russia.

This is why Russia seeks (historically) to expand westward - it is to take and to plug those gaps, for its security.

This makes Russia's "near abroad" the most likely theatre for war in the world.

Bearing this in mind, personally I would favour Russia joining western military and economic alliances. But alas, America, Europe's "protector" won't have this and prefers war.

Why does America want war (when Europe wants peace.. at least, its interests lie in peace)? To weaken all potential rivals : Europe (Russia and Germany) today ; China tomorrow ; (yesterday was the Middle East and they messed that up too).

So I don't have a lot of confidence in America's ability to solve this problem. NATO advancement is now about cutting Russia off from its warm water ports, stopping Russian-speakers from cultural assembly and regime change in Moscow with breaking Russia up into small states that can be divide and rule.

None of these three prongs will work - we'd all be incinerated first!

The fundamental cause of this war can be found in geography, the politics of security (International Relations), and America's answer - to nobble all rivals - is OK, but not by a strategy of war. War does not suit Europe. But peace in Europe does not suit America and this is an absolutely ruthless war with no winners.

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PREPARING TO CONCEDE UKRAINIAN TERRITORY

7 February 2023

The reshuffle in Kiev began with the replacement of the comm director a couple of weeks back.

The new MoDefence is much closer to Washington.

Is America, who manages this war, replacing tje Zelensky govt with its own? ...And Zelensky?

The Americans have been telling Zelensky to pull out of Bakmut before it's lost and the best Ukraonian troops with it.

There's also been multiple warnings - from RAND, CSNA, Wadington Post articles...ieAmerican advisors and the Pentagon - that this war is draining The West's resources at a time when it should be preparing for the real threat.

And thirdly, plans have been floated amongst the Am foreign policy elite to partition up Ukraine. Only Blinken and Nuland oppose.

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THE CASE FOR NUCLEAR IN UKRAINE

5 February 2023

Nuclear will happen if Russia concludes it will otherwise cease to exist. This would be in Ukraine itself, only in Ukraine, and in this case the West would not respond with nuclear, imho.

Unless America re-prioritises this conflict (on its own initiative, America withdraws or negotiates), there is the risk that America use nuclear. This could provoke a Russian nuclear response outside Ukraine, and we'd be in WW3 and incineration.

An intriguing possibility is if America could take out all Russian nuclear before Russia had time to respond. Intriguing, but impossible.

Neither side can, currently, accept a defeat; plus, there is no "off-ramp" or way out without loss of face.

The most promising conclusion would be a negotiated split of Ukraine between Russia, Ukraine and possibly Poland. Zelensky - front-line responsibility for the conduct of the war - would have to go, a verifiable neutrality with balance of power installed, and very sadly Ukraine would have to accept the loss or injury of perhaps 200,000 of its citizens, as well as a nation-state with rump-staus only and probably dependent on Moscow.

What to do?

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A LESSON IN FLATTERY

4 February 2023

https://youtu.be/xwPq7xAKi9I

Fully agree with Tucker's analysis and conclusions. The way he sensationalises is so funny and that is why people watch him.

After all, what has he just said?

 Boris went to Washington to promote a world war, but refused an invitation to appear on Tucker's show because he is afraid of the questions he'd face.

It would be a war for democracy except the people haven't been consulted and don't want it.

 Consider the position of Lindsay Grahame: a neo-con on foreign policy and an extreme liberal on immigration. (A neo liberal is a no-borders virtue-signaler - the "neo" part - who puts everyone first irrespective of where, which nation-state, on the planet they live.)

Grahame successfully argued for sending Abram tanks to Ukraine and now wants the US to send F16 fighter jets. He also opposed Trump on the wall.

Sending F16 fighter jets would mean America becoming directly involved in a war with a nuclear-armed superpower, and from there it's a short step to exchanges of nuclear missiles and thereafter ... oblivion.

 Now here is something that needs explaining : how can LG be an extreme neocon and an extreme liberal, yet also be  Trump's no.1 supporter in the Senate and campaign for and with Trump?

MAGA Trump, who pulls America out of wars and attacks NATO, America's creature for making war ; and Trump who wants a wall built and who believes in national borders. 

And the answer is that Grahame believes Trump will get the Republican nomination and be the next POTUS, and through Ottoman-style flattery of telling the ruler what he wants to hear, thriugh flattery Grahame seeks to subvert Trump's policies. As he did with Biden's on sending in the Abrams.

 Prefer direct assault and honest crticism to falsehood, flattery and subversion.

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RETIREMENT PLAN - THE SPREADSHEET YOU NEED TO MAKE YOUR LIFE EASY

27 January 2023

PUT IN TO TAKE OUT

What is the one number you'd really like to know for a happy retirement? Yup, it is how much should I tuck away each month - not percentages or formulae, just the number please?

THIS NOTE IS ABOUT

Financial planning is boring but unavoidable. So start here. 

Plus, a note on how to build a neat and tidy spreadsheet.

GOAL

people typically aim for somewhere between half and two-thirds of their final salary as their retirement income. 

NEEDS

By the time they retire, many people have paid off their mortgage, and their children are financially independent, so their expenses are lower. 

RESOURCES

The state pension should also cover at least a portion of needs, while the same level of gross income goes further because you are no longer making National Insurance and pension contributions. 

POT SIZE OBJECTIVE

First, work out how much you need after the state pension. You could multiply your planned expenditure in retirement by 25, which should give you the size of pot you need to be able to safely withdraw 4 per cent a year. 

For example, if you estimate you will spend £25,000 a year on top of the state pension, you will require a retirement fund of £625,000. 

 (Not included here is your investment strategy, ie how you make best use of your resources to achieve your goal...wow, is that complicated! 

 But at least, make a start by knowing where you are today, where you want to be, and how much to "pay yourself" each month to get there.)

Unless your investments perform poorly or you live to a very old age, following this 4% rule should enable you to leave some of your pension pot to your children.

FORMULAE

A good way to amass a sizeable pension pot is to contribute half your age as a percentage of your earnings every year when you start making contributions – 10 per cent of your gross salary when you are 20, increasing to 15 per cent when you are 30 and so on, including employer contributions.

People who leave retirement saving until later in life may need to work for longer or to release equity from their homes.

 ("Downsizing" is where you sell up and move to a smaller property. This releases equity which can be used, as we get older, for medical care.)

BUILD YOUR SPREADSHEET

Where are you today with your savings plan and where do you need to be? Use compound interest. Here are the basic steps (spreadsheet columns) and inputs for the calculations. Then compound up, year by year, from now to retirement. Et voilà, you've made your plan!

1. Needs - eg 2/3 thirds of final salary

2. Resources - state pension

3. Size of pot required

4. Spreadsheet scenarios - annual savings, number of years, rate of growth.

 

Four key adjustments to keep in mind when you build your spreadsheet.

5. Returns - on long-term average, the stock market has returned 7% a year. The future is less rosy, count 4%, with dividends re-invested, from your investment strategy.

6. Inflation – your withdrawals will need to increase in line with inflation to maintain the same living standards through retirement. 

7. Income tax - tax applies to your retirement income, so work out both the gross and net annual income you want to aim for.

8. Fees - remember to account for fees :   investment, platform and drawdown fees will eat into your returns.

(NOTE ON HOW TO BUILD A SPREADSHEET THAT WORKS

A well designed spreadsheet has three parts : header, detail, working storage.

Header - a very few rows to setup and summarise the results. The title of the sheet, the input parameters and their starting values, summary results.

Detail - the columns work left to right across the process, from beginning to end, each column doing rolling calculations - the rows are runs of the process eg one line for each year.

Working storage (optional) - maybe you need to do intermediate calculations for a step, but they'd clutter the detail line ... so put these sub-steps off the page to the right.)

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GEORGIO

Georgio is seeking the voice of the island, ie the voice of the people of Cyprus. He finds what is dear to them

Family
Traditions
Sea
Nature
Religion

Food

Costume

And in his own way and style, he expresses this. He is a conduit.

His paintings are more naive than childish. He is not a trained artist, he is self-taught. He is honest, he expresses what he sees, for you to see through his eyes.

EXHIBITION BLURB:

The George Pol. Georghiou - Timeless Cyprus exhibition has been organised on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the artist's death. The title, suggested by Georghiou's family, reflects the essence of Georghiou's body of work, almost completely immersed in Cyprus, its people and its history. Far from reducing his work to simplistic representations of mores or folklorist references, Georghiou opted to traverse the island's historical and cultural pathways to gain insight into the present. He sought to trace, understand, deepen, interpret and assert what he considered to be the indigenous voice of the island. In his work, he employed piercing clarity and knowledge in order to elicit time-resistant spiritual values and ways of life, as well as meaningful symbols semantically interwoven with certain fixed coordinates of his country's character.

Georghiou lived and produced the largest volume of his oeuvre on an island colonised by a Western country during a period when peoples across the world were awakening to claims of independence and freedom. The overall ideological climate infused his art. Through his work, he sought to assert an identity based on the local element. The choice he made is a token of love for his homeland, a place with a long, active past that set the scene for a dignified present.

Georghiou's creative dialogue with international artistic heritage, in tandem with the ecumenical values that permeate his art, render his work simultaneously indigenous and global.

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BYZANTIUM

On Byzantium

https://youtu.be/2JHCfe86A8U

Fascinating. Right from the beginning where Paul Cooper tells us how the Mediterranean Sea was created (offset Part I, 8 minutes).

To his explanation of how the Eastern wing survived for  another thousand years after the fall of Rome.

And America has managed 80 years and looks to be on its way out, having learnt nothing of the power of diplomacy from the rulers of Byzantium.

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