Outlining the Government's desire to bring about a “British renaissance”, he will go on to state:
“All history, all experience, shows that democratic countries with free economies, which let people keep more of the money they have earned, make their own decisions, and manage their own lives, are not just richer but also happier and more admired by others.
“The long bad dream of our EU membership is over. The British renaissance has begun."
TSS Tangible shareholder surplus - the average annual growth in tangible balance sheet equity over the past 5 years, added to the forward yield. The sum is then expressed as a percentage of the current MCap after adjustments for the average annual share issuing or share buy backs over the previous 5 years.
The importance of the TSS is that the build up in tangible equity within the balance sheet is a far more accurate guide to actual retained profits than the declared earnings.
Nearly all the valuation metrics currently used such as PE, PEG, GARP and dividend cover are all based upon declared earnings which are often grossly exaggerated.
For example, investment publications or data sources talk about dividend cover. They refer to the alleged earnings left over once the dividend is paid, that is supposedly the dividend cover. Frequently though, despite a healthy earnings dividend cover being declared, the tangible equity shrinks year on year after the dividend has been paid, i.e. the so called retained earnings were not actually retained as tangible equity after the dividend was paid, which means that they never existed at all, otherwise the retained earnings would translate into tangible equity.
In a nutshell, earnings declarations allow businesses to be creative and to exaggerate. So called covered dividends are frequently not covered at all. Being able to understand and to calculate the Tangible Shareholder Surplus allows the investor to identify dividends that are fully covered, giving them a considerable long term edge over the wider market.
@Neil Gibbens my understanding from reading comments from @Bogdan Branislov is that TSS stands for Tangible Shareholder Surplus.
My understanding is that by comparing the current market capitalisation to the growth in tangible assets (less intangibles, plus dividends) it is possible to get an idea of how well the current price reflects the rate at which a business is adding shareholder value - over the medium term.
Fair value tends to give a TSS of around 5%, while a TSS of around 10% might suggest a buy opportunity.
A company like BATS which has borrowed heavily against future profits (transferring much of the risk of legislative changes halting operations to lenders) does badly on this assessment.
A company like LGEN currently provides a case study in what Bogdan is looking for, with a likely TSS of 9.5%. In a company with a market capitalisation of £ 17 Billion that means a TSS of 160 million per year.
I haven't convinced myself yet I can replicate the methodology, so I'm pleased Bogdan has just pre-empted my post!
We are told it is a multitude of small, short-term issues, of which panic-buying fuel is but the latest, and once we're through we'll be in global Britain-times enjoying our prosperity, power and independence to the max.
But as you say, will we? As it feels as though the situation is worsening, with bad surprises flying in every week. And for cause, don't look local, because these are global supply chain problems.
working conditions, pay, red tape, laziness and over-sensitivities, many drivers quitting because of the lockdowns, not training up new HGV operators, and not women, Brexit causing many to return home, giving a shortage of 100,000 drivers. That's a lot and you do wonder what the RHA has been doing - all asleep in their cabs!
It's a lot for Boris to think about (we are getting into a cult figure status).
More short term problems, but even these, can we see any better? Oil prices have reached a three year high, $80 a barrel, and climbing thanks to output disruptions and this high demand. Traditional oil companies are selling out and investing in green, but that is much more expensive. Germany is relying onxoal and Putin!
Then theres the construction sector where more than one in three businesses can't get the materials, goods and services they need within the UK. How will my son rehab the flat he's just bought? What effect housing 300,000 starts?
The gas surge closed two of the UK’s big industrial fertiliser plants in a completely unexpected and inflationary surprise, resulting in more govt takeover in the "market" economy and state aid and yet more borrowing.
So now we have inflation at 4 per cent for the short-term plus a possible base rate rise early next year. America same same with the threat to stock markets from tapering.
Still, no significant upturn in unemployment nor substantial corporate distress. Only inflation, supply difficulties NI rise to threaten the economic recovery (which is already faltering).
And what about the jobs of those coming off furlough? Will they want to back to work? Will employers have work for them? Given the worsening outlook.
Sort out the short term, the central bank needs to say no int rate rises medium term, but the long term is surely out of the hands of any one country.
But you see, Communists *are* fascist. Communism is the dictatorship of the proletariat, it is where the State is more important than the individual, it is intolerant of opposition, it employs violence on its own people.
We say that Nazis were National Socialists and then Fascists, true, so nation is important, aswhere Communism is international.
But that's what we are getting at - denial of free speech is unscientific, against the spirit of rational open-minded inquiry, it is unenlightened ...well, that is true of all utopianists, religious or political, communist or fascist, same same.
The roots of the fascist personality might be in a fear of not having enough control.
And it's sometimes quite rational and even justified, to want to seize control and hold.
Even old Bojo Boris didn't have much alternative if he was to get on top of the pandemic.
But a true fascist is a bit of a control freak and once taken, won't give back, won't let go, not voluntarily anyway.
But we know that letting go, opening up, exposing ourself to reality, is where we will find the truth, we will understand, and we will make progress. What kind of progress towards the things that matter does a fascist make?
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Cape 27 September - Jordan Peterson 'Maps of Meaning"
Why have people from different cultures and eras formulated myths and stories with similar structures? What does this similarity tell us about the mind, morality, and structure of the world itself? Jordan Peterson offers a provocative new hypothesis that explores the connection between what modern neuropsychology tells us about the brain and what rituals, myths, and religious stories have long narrated. A cutting-edge work that brings together neuropsychology, cognitive science, and Freudian and Jungian approaches to mythology and narrative, Maps of Meaning presents a rich theory that makes the wisdom and meaning of myth accessible to the critical modern mind.
"The book reflects its author's profound moral sense and vast erudition in areas ranging from clinical psychology to scripture and a good deal of personal soul-searching and experience...with patients who include prisoners, alcoholics and the mentally ill." -- Montreal Gazette
"This is not a book to be abstracted and summarized. Rather it should be read at leisure...and employed as a stimulus and reference to expand one's own maps of meaning. I plan to return to Peterson's musings and mapping many times over the next few years." -- Am J Psychiatry
"...a brilliant enlargement of our understanding of human motivation...a beautiful work." -- Sheldon H. White, Harvard University
"...unique...a brilliant new synthesis of the meaning of mythologies and our human need to relate in story form the deep structure of our experiences." -- Keith Oatley, University of Toronto
Jordan Peterson's book is a brilliant enlargement of our understanding of human motivation. He follows a path that has been recommended by many scientist-scholars in the past - but one that is, in practice, so extraordinarily demanding that it is hardly ever done well. Peterson synthesizes research and scholarly literatures ranging from neuroscience to archaeology. He aligns the finds of those literatures with the writings of such authors as Jung, Nietzsche, Dostoevsky, and Solzhenitsyn. There is loving detail in this book - reflection, thoughtfulness, careful study, a passionate desire to understand. This is a beautiful work. (Sheldon H. White, Chair, Department of Psychology, Harvard University).
Jordan B. Peterson is a clinical psychologist and Professor at the University of Toronto and was formerly at Harvard University. He has published numerous articles on drug abuse, alcoholism and aggression.
Self-consciousness means knowledge of individual vulnerability. The process by which this knowledge comes to be can destroy faith in individual worth. This means - in concrete terms - that an individual may come to sacrifice his own experience, in the course of development, because its pursuit creates social conflict, or exposes individual inadequacy. However, it is only through such conflict that change takes place, and weakness must be recognized, before it can be transformed into strength. This means that the sacrifice of individuality eliminates any possibility that individual strength can be discovered or developed, and that the world itself might progress.
Individuals whose life is without meaning hate themselves, for their weakness, and hate life, for making them weak. This hatred manifests itself in absolute identification with destructive power, in its mythological, historical and biological manifestations; manifests itself in the desire for the absolute extinction of existence. Such identification leads man to poison whatever he touches, to generate unnecessary misery in the face of inevitable suffering, to turn his fellows against themselves, to intermingle earth with hell - merely to attain vengeance upon God and his creation.
The human purpose, if such a thing can be considered, is to pursue meaning - to extend the domain of light, of consciousness - in spite of limitation. A meaningful event exists on the boundary between order and chaos. The pursuit of meaning exposes the individual to the unknown in gradual fashion, allowing him to develop strength and adaptive ability in proportion to the seriousness of his pursuit. It is during contact with the unknown that human power grows, individually and then historically. Meaning is the subjective experience associated with that contact, in sufficient proportion. The great religious myths state that continued pursuit of meaning, adopted voluntarily and without self-deception, will lead the individual to discover his identity with God. This "revealed identity" will make him capable of withstanding the tragedy of life. Abandonment of meaning, by contrast, reduces man to his mortal weaknesses. This makes him hate life, and work towards its elimination.
Meaning is the most profound manifestation of instinct. Man is a creature attracted by the unknown; a creature adapted for its conquest. The subjective sense of meaning is the instinct governing rate of contact with the unknown. Too much exposure turns change to chaos; too little promotes stagnation and degeneration. The appropriate balance produces a powerful individual, confident in the ability to withstand life, ever more able to deal with nature and society, ever closer to the heroic ideal. Each individual, constitutionally unique, finds meaning in different pursuits, if he has the courage to maintain his difference. Manifestation of individual diversity, transformed into knowledge that can be transferred socially, changes the face of history itself, and moves each generation of man farther into the unknown.
Social and biological conditions define the boundaries of individual existence. The unfailing pursuit of interest provides the subjective means by which these conditions can be met, and their boundaries transcended. Meaning is the instinct that makes life possible. When it is abandoned, individuality loses its redeeming power. The great lie is that meaning does not exist, or that it is not important. When meaning is denied, hatred for life and the wish for its destruction inevitably rules:
"If you bring forth what is within you, what you bring forth will save you. If you do not bring forth what is within you, what you do not bring forth will destroy you."
It took elements from the Portuguese and English cuisine to create something uniquely Indian. It is an Indianised version of a popular Portuguese dish Carne de vinha d'alhos (the Portuguese version of Boeuf Bourguignon or Irish Stew with Guinness if you prefer) in which meat is marinated in wine vinegar and garlic.
It made its way to India in the 15th century along with Portuguese explorers. Carne de vinha d'alhos was a dish that was usually carried by travelers and sailors. It had liberal use of vinegar and garlic and can be preserved. Indian cooks of Goa used local ingredients like palm vinegar, tamarind, black pepper, and spices. With the introduction of chilly to the Indian cuisine by the Portuguese, it adapted itself to a fiery rich curry. The British took up Vindaloo and made it their own and it became an integral part of Indian cuisine.
Kerala Style Beef Vindaloo
Vindaloo became popular in Goa, Konkan, and Kerala because of the Portuguese and Anglo Indian community. Cochin was a one-time Portuguese stronghold and their influence can be seen in the local cuisine. This dish is a must among Christians and the Anglo Indian community of the region, for special occasions and celebrations.
Vinagiri irachi has the spicy kick of black pepper and the earthy flavor of mustard, fennel, fenugreek, and cumin. Chilly powder like kashmiri is preferred for the colour rather than heat. Black pepper was the spice of choice for generations in Kerala cooking.
Goan Vindaloo uses the pungent liquor feni but the Cochin recipe uses a milder local coconut vinegar. A small piece of drumstick or Muringa trees bark is also added as meat tenderizer.
There is no tamarind, tomatoes or vegetables in vinagiri curry and can be made with both beef and pork. There is also liberal use of coconut oil and curry leaves.
http://kichencorner.blogspot.com/2019/10/kerala-beef-vindaloo-anglo-indian-recipe.html
7 Seven of the Nationalists won't take up their seats at Westminster as they don't acknowledge the legitimacy of British rule.
All 5 five of the border constituencies returned Irish Nationalist MPs. 3 Three of the 4 four Belfast constituencies elected Irish Nationalists.
But is the union is on the way out?
Those 9 nine nationalist MPs got 37.7% of the vote and the 8 eight unionists 42.3%. With the unaligned with 16.8%, reckon 65% of their supporters would vote to stay in the U.K. and even 9% of Sinn Fein Fein voters and 35% of SDLP voters would vote to remain in the U.K. i.e. there has been no change in the percentage of NI voters who would opt for a united Ireland in the past 40 years.
Seems it's not going to happen
anytime soon.
1. Lateral flow is sufficient for fully vaccinated visitors. Why? Testing is not really needed once the population is vaccinated, but until then a pre-flight LFT is sufficient.
2. No quarantine for fully vaccinated. Why? Because any positives are eliminated at pre-flight test.
3. No covid insurance. Why? They are never hospitalised for covid (if comorbidities, it can be a different story).
4. Many changes can be made to simplify the permission to stay.
5. A credible plan to restore and enhance the tourist sector, "build back better" applies to infrastructure and staff.
Nato will need reform. The inclusion of Russia could be contemplated on strategic grounds, given its growing closeness to China.
This
alliance could also mature into a new free trade area, and one the EU
could in time apply to join, offering hope for the survival of their own free trade
area, the Single Market and Customs Union.
Clive Woolley - I replied to you last comment on the BAE (22nd sept) thread, albeit a bit belatedly, so I have copied my reply here:
Clive - looks correct to me and certainly the final figure is very much in the right area - I may sound vague here, but the TSS moves every day a little with the share price of course.
I use data which gives the net total assets from which I deduct the intangibles, same result your way so that is fine.
This is obviously a screening exercise and there are other factors that you must consider, often more subjective:
1. Look for anything odd in the balance sheet, things that don't quite stack up, TI Fluid systems for example, as discussed yesterday, the balance sheet and P&L look like they are from different businesses.
2. Watch out for a big debt or liability build up behind an apparently strong TSS - a variation on point 1. But also an absolute red flag.
3. Look at the ten year data, if you look at the ten year tangible equity build up for LGEN and BWY, it is a thing of great beauty like a marvelous piece of art, a balance sheet masterpiece.
4. There needs to be a continuity to the equity build up - that is why Aviva and M&G although reasonable buys I think, are not in the same league as LGEN, within their broad sector, due to the greater uncertainty of future earnings and equity build up for Aviva and M&G.
5. Sometimes when a business has undertaken a cash draining expansion, this can suppress the TSS and mask the opportunity. Forterra for example, with their new brick plant, to produce next year, Covid came as spend was peaking, they had to issue just over 6% shares as a precautionary measure last year and the development spend has obviously held back the divi. But even with the expansion impact, the TSS is still over 7%, so I don't use such circumstances to ignore the all important TSS metric, but I can make allowance under some circumstances if this metric is held back a little by sound expansion spend.