A STORY TO INSPIRE US ALL

Voici une histoire pour t'inspirer à atteindre tes rêves et à ne jamais les  abandonner.  

Il y a de nombreuses années, la femme de mon pote a terminé deuxième dans une concours Miss Scotland. C'était en 1997.  

Plus tard cette année-là, elle a été assaillie par une longue période de malchance.  Elle a souffert pendant des années d'abus de drogues et d'alcool et d'une série de troubles alimentaires.  Elle a perdu une jambe et a dû subir une reconstruction faciale après un accident de la route, la pauvrette.  Plus tard, elle a subi des brûlures à 90 % lors d'une attaque à l'acide non provoquée, la malchanceuse.  Plusieurs de ses dents ont été cassées et un œil a été crevé lors d'une bagarre devant un KFC pour son plat à emporter.  Le stress de tous ces malheurs a causé une grave perte de cheveux et des verrues faciales.  

Mais elle n'a JAMAIS, jamais cessé de croire et finalement, le mois dernier, elle a été couronnée Miss Ecosse 2021.

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GO LONG DEFENSIVES IN VACCINATED MARKETS, LONG CYCLICALS IN JAPAN & EMERGING

To Bank of America global investment strategist Michael Hartnett, there have been three distinct phases to describe market action over the last eight months. 

The first is what he labels the reopening rally, started on Nov. 3 by both the U.S. election and the reports of vaccine effectiveness. That boosted stocks and credit, steepened the yield curve, weakened the U.S. dollar, and led to cyclicals outperforming defensives.

The next phase was the inflation boom, started on Feb. 16 by blowout U.S. retail sales. That led to commodities rising, yields surging, cracks in the technology sector, and value stocks outperforming growth. 

The third phase was what he calls "peak growth/policy," starting on Jun. 16 by the Federal Reserve as well as easing signs from China. That led to a yield curve collapse, bonds outperforming stocks and commodities, the dollar rising, and defensives outperforming cyclicals. 

So what to do now? He says own defensive quality in the second half, as it is both a hedge against peak policy, and peak profits. He advises going

  long defensives in what he calls the vaccinated markets of the U.S. and Europe, 

and

  long cyclicals and reopening plays in markets with vaccine upside, in Japan and emerging markets.

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EAT WITH THE BOSCH, SLEEP WITH THE BRITS

The UK is France's new neighbour and France would do well to remember this. And we are not just neighbours, we are relatives.

And when another of France's neighbours was trying, for the third time no less, to burn their house down, who was the neighbour that came to the rescue and put out the fire?

Well, hmmmmph, that other neighbour is having another go. Best to take a long spoon to the talks about "integration".

Eat with the ..., sleep with the ....

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TRADERS GET COLD IN THE AMYGDALA

Today's Wednesday.

Wednesday, 21 July 2021

You'd have needed a degree in crowd psychology to have been able to predict Monday and Tuesday on the LSE.

The herd of investors (they're not really investors, they are traders) got cold in the amygdala at the thought of covid running out of control over the summer and shutting down the economy, abandoned their positions, and ran for shelter in the dollar bunkers. They sold up and moved to cash, the safety of the dollar, which enjoyed a bounce.

And then the very next day, yesterday Tuesday, FOMO and they all rush back in!

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CONSPIRACY THEORISTS

Normaly, you want to explain something, you have your cause-effect timeline as your plan and proceed left-to-right.

A conspiracy theorist does it all back-to-front. They take the thing they want to explain, then do a right-to-left, picking back through history from the myriad factoids, those that suit their perverse argument.

Anyone can do that, but it's weird and unhelpful.

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REVOLUTION OR EVOLUTION?

All these revolutionaries are the same - utopianists as much as religious extremists (eg caliphate builders).

They begin operations in the same place: your past.

They aim to wipe the past and your memories, clean.

Then they have a nice clean greenfield site on which to construct The New Society. 

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WHO ARE INDIE SAGE?

18 July 2021

Independent SAGE - "Indie-SAGE" they like to be called, borrowing the name of the official advisory SAGE and its name-remit, it's more friendly - link to the official source, SAGE, of independent scientific advice on how to deal with emergencies to government through SPI-B (SAGE). People on "Indie SAGE" are essentially behavioural scientists and some also sit on the official SAGE and make their case to government directly here.

They also face the public, through innumerable tie-ins, like trades unions, newspapers, internet.

It is in practise impossible to separate the data that describes a situation, from the policy for managing the situation. Data, policy and operations are intertwined.

What precedes policy, what conditions policy, are your beliefs and values, ie your politics. Behavioural scientists study the behaviour of people in mass society. In this situation, it is virtually impossible not to hold a Marxist view of society: we are born into "society" and conditioned by our membership of the class to which we belong. After following the social rules on what to think and do, what is left is our personal sphere of freedom.

Contrast this with a true Conservative, who thinks we are born free and consent to join the group while it offers us protection against anarchy and dictatorship. We enjoy maximum freedom to do as we please, which we agree to exchange a part of for this protection.

Furthermore, a Marxist has a vision of a society that is social, equal, diverse and fair. That's really quite different from a Conservative, who abhors the nanny state (read "dictatorship of the people"), with all its tentacles damping down freedom and competition.

So, long story short, Indie SAGE are to be welcomed, they bring a lot of interesting evidence, conclusions and policy recommendations; but we can hear them coming from afar, in their big red Marxist boots!

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FORWARD TO NEW NORMAL

Seems like we are on the way to understanding and living with this bug. We are more confident now and responsibility can be passed from State to the Individual, at lest for prevention.

Much remains to be done: complete the vaccination program, optimise Test and Trace, improve treatments (improve vaccines, hospital procedures, long covid convalescence ...), plan for future 'virus wars'.

Attention should go to rolling out the programs to countries outside the G7. The WHO could help coordination.

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COVID FOR TRAVELING TO ENGLAND

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-for-people-travelling-to-england

https://www.find-travel-test-provider.service.gov.uk/test-type/green

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ADVICE FOR COMMENTING ON MY BLOG

You can't

The blogging business has changed. A LOT. 

One of the big changes the more traditional news platforms are struggling with is the two-way conversation between news publishers and readers/viewers. Not only do readers now have the ability to engage with the publishers, they frequently do. That’s great. 

But with this engagement there is also a commensurate responsibility for people leaving comments. As the publisher is bound by certain responsibilities and legal guidelines, so too are the people joining in the conversation.

I want the comments section to be a useful and engaging platform for debate and discussion. I understand that some people can end up using the space as their own personal platform, at least, that's what happens on the newspapers I read. I will discourage this where commenters overwhelm the space. Instead, I'll encourage as many people to get involved to share their opinion and commentary.

Or maybe I won't.

Whilst providing a few common-sense guidelines, I still encourage active and robust debate on important topics.

Rules for comments section…

• Argue, disagree or debate with other commenters, but don’t attack them personally. That includes me!!!

• You can, at the moment, include links in your comments. You can also quote other sources and copy/paste some text if you wish.

• Be careful when posting anything that could be construed as libel against brands, companies or people. You will leave us all open to litigation.

• When posting alternate facts to those which are published, please provide a source of your information.

• From time to time I will edit or delete comments as part of my responsibilities as a publisher. Continued abuse of the comments section will end up with the user being blocked.

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FREEDOM LOVING OR RISK AVERSE?

The Terrifying Truth Is That Millions Do Not Want Lockdown To End

I was vaccinated in Feb and Apr, caught covid in May one week no symptoms worth recording.

Sure, I'll wear a mask in crowds out of respect for others, and as a sign that they should too, but otherwise it's carry on camping.

The risk of transmission, the risk of serious symptoms if you do get it, these risks are very small now in a vaccinated society.

We are born free and agree to join society for some protection, we give up some freedom in return, and maybe some very risk-averse folk would sacrifice all their freedom for a totally safe environment, managed for us by others.

But not me.

CASE IN POINT

The film 'The Magdalene Sisters' shows us how we can become tame, enslaved. There is a powerful scene where the incarcerated 'immoral' women, having been subjected to years of drudgery, are outside in the garden. 

Someone accidentally leaves the gate open and your heart misses a beat. "Run Run" you want to shout at the screen. 

The women look at the open gate but they don't leave. Aïe! 

However much they may be intrigued by the prospect of freedom they are incapable of escaping. By then they're imprisoned, not just in body, but in mind too. 

 

The same thing is happening to many in our society now after a year and a half of enforced restrictions. People are afraid. 

We are being offered back our freedom but many are struggling to take it.

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