WAR IS COMING

24 August 2024 

 

 An observation that can be traced back through the centuries to an original thought from Plato.

It seems to be getting to the point where the rest of the world is not necessarily in great fear of the West anymore, on the contrary is more and more fed up with the interference in their lives, the chaos the West is responsible for and the violence against their peoples.

It also seems that in the face of any setback, all the West ever seems to do - and I include Israel and Ukraine, the EU ad UK, as well as America - all they do in the face of setbacks, is to "double down" to use that phrase. Democracy is not working as the leaderships are not interested in the people. America, the cause, is isolated geographically, it is Europe that is closest to the Middle East through the Mediterranean and Ukraine in East Europe.

So no hope it seems of the West stepping back from the conflicts, little prospect of their learning anything, all the rest of the world will ever get is endless violence and war, all sorts of irrational behaviour, driven by fear, greed, hatred, contempt and revenge.

What anyone watching these wildlife films gets is that whether it is a forest fire or an elder lion being mauled to death by younger members of the tribe, conflict is necessary to re-ordering, rebirth, reconstruction ... even welcome. Isn't that what happened after World War Two and isn't that also what happened after the Civil War in America? And what set off the French revolution?

Neil Howe, he of The Fourth Turning fame, makes this point:

 https://youtu.be/LkmXwcglQhE?si=UbBrIjl6bIkvFQbO

So after the last world war people were generally glad, at least at the beginning, that there was a new Order, the American Order, with all those new institutions to informally rearrange the world.

So anyway all this to say that it does look like we are heading to war, whether Civil War or more likely with foreign powers, and this is the only way to rid ourselves of the little dung heap in Washington and start afresh.

What do you think of?

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PLATO'S CAVE

23 August 2024

You know about this allegory then? Yes. To read the original or watch this YouTube is quite a life-changing experience. The story Plato tells is so simple to follow, but if you like it and want to go deeper there's more to find in here. 

The Matrix does a great job of updating Plato's allegory into modern terms.

So now we are sitting in one of the seats in a cinema along with most other people, watching movies that for us are absolute reality, it's the real world. We do not want to turn our head away from what we see on the screen.

At some point in this continuous movie, one of the audience finds the story on the flickering screen to be too much to bear for some reason and he or she stands up and turns around and then sees at the back of the cinema the projectionist setup and begins to slowly and painfully realise that his whole life has been an illusion, a dream.

So he begins to make a long and laborious and difficult journey out of the cinema, past the projectionist and into the street outside.

Once in the street, he looks around him and sees what is a real car, a real building, a real this, a real that etc... not just the contrived images and movies that were flickering on the screen and being passed off for reality.

Finally he looks up at the source of the light that is illuminating the real world: the sun.

Now that he has seen through the falsehood where life is replaced with a movie that people think is reality, he decides to go back and tell the others in the cinema, to liberate from this manufactured universe, but unfortunately they think he is quite mad and kill him.

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UKRAINE UPDATE

23 August 2024

Would it be true to say that Ukraine has, if not abandoned, then at least refocused from the front line to Cusk? And what might have persuaded it to do so? 

You might also ask why it is continuing to shell the zaporexia nuclear power plant and is also continuing to attempt to bring down the Crimean Bridge. 

And then you have to ask why it is breaking Geneva conventions by taking civilians hostage, blindfolding them and tying their hands behind their back and chucking them into the back lorries as though they were carcasses of meat.

If you put those three points together you have to conclude that the Kiev regime out of desperation is turning to terrorism and indeed it is clear that Russia calls this a special military operation, SMO, because it is not making a war with Ukraine and its people, but just against the regime in Kiev. 

Given the above and that Zielinsky no longer has a mandate, it's also understandable why Russia has said that there is no hope in negotiations with the regime in Kev. 

Thus Russia is only now interested in a military defeat for the kiev regime. This was always one of three stated objectives by Russia (regime change, liberation, no NATO) and Russia might well have lured Ukraine into Koursk in order to finish the first job the Cusk region is just vast almost uninhabited step traversed by Rivers streams narrow roads filled with hills and forests and occasional hamlets and looks like ideal ambush territory for the Russian troops. 

Consider also that Russia has the necessary men, arms and supplies to achieve this, aswhere Ukraine has not enough to run the old and new fronts. In fact, there are just 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers apparently in Cusk... how long will they last? They are the best Kiev have and as they fall they are replaced with more off the main front line. 

So what will happen? I go back to my original point of two years ago... looking at a map, it seems that Russia is going to go and take Odessa - now rhat negotiations are canned why shouldn't it. And probably Transnistria, which is also of Russian vintage. 

It will destroy Ukraine's army, so the more troops Kiev sends to the front lines, the better for the Russian goal. 

It will devastate Western Ukraine to make sure the cost benefit analysis of this conflict is largely in its favour. 

And then it will integrate its new territories, leave the rest of Ukraine to the EU to rebuild at EU taxpayers expense since they have fully committed to support Ukraine. 

And Moscow will put in place a more realistic government in Kiev....another Hungary perhaps.

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REVIEW OF EMMANUEL TODD’S BOOK "LA DÉFAITE DE L’OCCIDENT"

19 August 2024

REVIEW OF EMMANUEL TODD’S BOOK 

"LA DÉFAITE DE L’OCCIDENT" 

(THE DEFEAT OF THE WEST)

 

Emmanuel Todd’s book "La Défaite de l’Occident" (The Defeat of the West) offers a provocative analysis of the current geopolitical landscape, particularly focusing on the decline of Western power and influence. The book argues that the West, led by the United States, is facing a profound crisis, driven by both internal cultural decay and external geopolitical challenges.

 Key Points from the Book:

1. Cultural and Moral Decline

   Todd highlights the cultural and moral decline of the West, particularly the United States. He argues that the collapse of Protestant values and the rise of what he sees as "nihilistic" ideologies, such as radical gender theories, have eroded the moral fabric that once underpinned Western society. This cultural shift, he suggests, alienates traditional societies globally, leading to a loss of soft power for the West.

2. Economic and Industrial Weakness

   The book criticizes the West's decision to outsource much of its industrial base, which Todd sees not only as a strategic mistake but as evidence of a broader project to exploit other parts of the world. He points out that Russia, despite its smaller population and economic challenges, has managed to maintain a strong industrial base, particularly in engineering and military production, which has allowed it to withstand Western sanctions and maintain its global position.

3. Geopolitical Miscalculations

   Todd argues that the West, particularly the United States, has miscalculated its global influence. The ability of Russia to resist Western pressure and the failure of the West to impose its will through economic sanctions are central themes. He also suggests that the rest of the world, including countries in the Global South, are increasingly skeptical of Western values and leadership, leading to a realignment of global alliances.

4. The Ukraine Conflict

   Todd’s analysis of the Ukraine conflict is particularly controversial. He describes Ukraine as a "failed state" and argues that its efforts to reclaim regions like Donbas and Crimea are "suicidal." He posits that the West’s support for Ukraine is part of a broader, flawed strategy that ignores the deeper cultural and geopolitical realities at play. Todd also emphasizes that Russia, despite being portrayed as the aggressor, is acting in defense of its cultural and strategic interests.

5. Western Hubris

   A recurring theme in the book is the West’s hubris and inability to understand its declining position in the world. Todd suggests that Western leaders are out of touch with the realities faced by other global powers and are failing to adapt to the new multipolar world order.

 Conclusion

"The Defeat of the West" presents a stark and critical view of the current global order, challenging many of the assumptions held by Western leaders and intellectuals. Todd’s work is likely to stir significant debate, particularly due to its contrarian perspectives on Western culture, its critique of American leadership, and its analysis of the Ukraine conflict. His book urges a rethinking of Western strategies and a recognition of the cultural and geopolitical shifts that are reshaping the global landscape.

This synthesis draws from multiple reviews and analyses of Todd's work, offering a comprehensive overview of his arguments and the implications he sees for the future of Western power.

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EMMANUEL TODD: UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL DYNAMICS THROUGH DEMOGRAPHY AND FAMILY STRUCTURES

19 August 2024

Emmanuel Todd: Understanding Global Dynamics through Demography and Family Structures

Emmanuel Todd, a distinguished French historian, sociologist, and demographer, offers a unique lens on global politics through his analysis of demographic trends and family structures. His work, which predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, explores how cultural and societal foundations shape political systems. Todd's critique of American hegemony and neoliberal policies highlights the deep-seated demographic and social challenges facing the West, particularly the United States. By linking family dynamics to broader geopolitical shifts, Todd provides invaluable insights into the cultural forces driving global power realignments.

Emmanuel Todd: 

Understanding Global Dynamics through Demography and Family Structures

This piece presents an appreciation of Emmanuel Todd: his theories and his contributions to the understanding of global politics and societal dynamics.

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Introduction

Emmanuel Todd is a prominent French historian, sociologist, and demographer, widely recognised for his innovative and interdisciplinary approach to understanding global political and social dynamics. His work spans various fields, including anthropology, sociology, and geopolitics, making significant contributions to the discourse on the evolution of societies and the impact of cultural and demographic factors on global power structures. Todd's theories, particularly those concerning family structures and their influence on political organisation, offer a unique lens through which to analyse the complexities of global interactions and the shifts in power dynamics across regions.

Background and Academic Focus

Emmanuel Todd was born into a family of intellectuals and has consistently demonstrated a keen interest in understanding the deep-rooted cultural and social factors that shape societies. His academic background is diverse, encompassing history, sociology, and anthropology, which has allowed him to approach global issues from a multifaceted perspective. Todd's work is characterised by his emphasis on demography and family structures, which he believes are crucial in shaping the political and ideological orientations of societies.

Key Theoretical Contributions

1. Demography and Political Change

One of Todd's most notable contributions to the field of sociology is his use of demographic indicators to predict major political changes. His 1976 book, "La Chute Finale: Essai sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique" ("The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere"), accurately predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union by analysing trends such as rising infant mortality rates and declining life expectancy. Todd argued that these demographic trends were indicative of deeper societal problems, which ultimately led to the disintegration of the Soviet state. This approach underscored his belief that demographic data can provide critical insights into the stability and future trajectory of political entities.

2. Family Structures and Political Systems

Todd's analysis of family structures is perhaps his most unique and influential contribution. He posits that different types of family structures—defined by their authority patterns, inheritance rules, and relationships between family members—can significantly influence the political and ideological orientations of societies. Todd identifies several distinct types of family structures, each associated with particular political and social characteristics:

   - Absolute Nuclear Family: 

Common in Northwestern Europe, this family type is highly autonomous, with little emphasis on extended family ties. Todd argues that such a structure fosters individualism, liberal democracy, and egalitarian values, as seen in countries like the United Kingdom.

   - Egalitarian Nuclear Family: 

Found in countries like France and Spain, this family structure balances individualism with social responsibility, promoting values that align with republicanism and social equality. France, with its emphasis on secularism and egalitarianism, exemplifies this influence.

   - Authoritarian Family: 

In regions like Southern Italy, Russia, and East Asia, the authoritarian family structure emphasises hierarchy and respect for authority, often leading to centralised, autocratic governance. Todd suggests that Russia's political system, characterised by strong, paternalistic leadership, reflects this family model.

   - Community Family: 

Predominant in parts of Eastern Europe and China, the community family structure promotes collectivism and communal responsibility, often resulting in political systems that prioritize collective welfare over individual rights. Traditional Chinese society is a prime example of this influence.

   - Endogamous Community Family: 

Found in the Arab world and parts of Southern India, this family structure involves strong internal cohesion through practices like cousin marriage. Todd argues that such societies tend to have fragmented political systems with strong local power structures, as seen in the tribal and clan-based societies of the Middle East.

Implications of Todd’s Theory

Todd's analysis of family structures offers a profound understanding of how deep-rooted cultural and social factors influence political organisation and societal values. His work suggests that these family structures are deeply ingrained and have long-lasting effects on the political and social organisation of societies. Even as societies modernise, the underlying family structures continue to influence political behaviour, social values, and attitudes toward authority and individualism.

By comparing different regions and their predominant family structures, Todd provides a framework for understanding why certain political systems and ideologies take root in some societies but not in others. This approach allows for a deeper comprehension of global power dynamics and the cultural persistence that shapes the governance and social organisation of societies.

Critique of American Hegemony

In addition to his work on family structures, Todd is also known for his critical analysis of U.S. foreign policy and global dominance. In his 2002 book "After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order," Todd argues that the United States is in decline due to internal social and economic issues. He contends that the U.S. is overextending itself militarily and economically, leading to a decrease in its global influence. Todd’s critique extends to the neo-liberal policies (1) that have dominated Western economies, which he believes have exacerbated inequality and undermined social cohesion.

Todd's views on American hegemony align with his broader concerns about the sustainability of global power structures. He is sceptical of the long-term viability of the U.S. maintaining its dominant position in world affairs, given the demographic and social challenges it faces (2). This perspective resonates with those who are critical of neo-liberal globalisation and concerned about the erosion of national sovereignty in the face of global economic forces and American dominance.

Methodology and Analysis

Todd’s methodology is interdisciplinary, combining demographic data with sociological and anthropological insights. He uses population trends, such as birth rates, mortality rates, and family structures, to predict political and social changes within societies. His work often explores how these internal dynamics influence a country’s stability, political system, and foreign policy.

Unlike traditional political scientists who focus on the behaviour of states and international relations from a strategic or realist perspective, Todd’s analysis delves into the cultural and societal foundations of political systems. He places a strong emphasis on cultural and historical context when analysing global trends, arguing that these deep-rooted factors are crucial for understanding the development of political ideologies and the behaviour of states on the world stage.

Influence and Reception

Emmanuel Todd is regarded as a significant intellectual figure, particularly in France, where his interdisciplinary approach and bold predictions have earned him a reputation as a provocative and insightful thinker. His ability to predict major events, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, has contributed to his credibility. His critiques of globalisation and American hegemony resonate with those sceptical of neo-liberal policies and concerned about the future of global power structures.

However, Todd’s work has also faced criticism. Some argue that his reliance on demographic data can oversimplify complex geopolitical dynamics and that his pessimistic outlook on Western decline may not fully account for the resilience of these societies. Nonetheless, Todd's contributions to the understanding of global politics and societal development are widely respected, and his theories continue to influence discussions on the future of global power dynamics.

Conclusion

Emmanuel Todd’s work offers a unique and comprehensive analysis of the forces shaping global politics and societal development. His emphasis on demography and family structures as foundational elements of political systems provides valuable insights into the cultural and social factors that influence the behaviour of states. Todd's critique of American hegemony and his predictions about the decline of Western dominance challenge conventional wisdom and encourage a deeper examination of the underlying trends shaping the global order.

In sum, Todd’s interdisciplinary approach and innovative theories make him a crucial figure in the study of global dynamics, offering a fresh perspective on the complex interplay between culture, demography, and power in shaping the world we live in today.

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This dissertation combines the key elements of Emmanuel Todd's work, providing a holistic view of his contributions and their implications for understanding global political and social dynamics.

(1) Neo-liberal policies emphasise free-market capitalism and reduced role for government intervention in the economy. Key features include privatisation of public services, deregulation of industries, lowering taxes, and promoting globalisation through free trade and open markets. 

Critics argue these policies increase inequality and undermine social welfare, while proponents believe they spur economic growth.

(2) The United States faces several demographic and social challenges, including:

1. Ageing Population: The U.S. population is ageing, with a growing proportion of retirese, which puts pressure on social security, healthcare systems, and the workforce.

2. Declining Birth Rates: Lower birth rates contribute to slower population growth and can lead to a shrinking workforce, impacting economic productivity and innovation.

3. Racial and Ethnic Tensions: Ongoing racial and ethnic disparities in income, education, healthcare, and criminal justice contribute to social unrest and weaken national cohesion.

4. Income Inequality: Economic inequality has widened significantly, with wealth increasingly concentrated among the top earners, exacerbating social divisions and limiting economic mobility.

5. Political Polarisation: The U.S. is experiencing deep political divisions, which complicate governance, erode trust in institutions, and hinder effective policy-making.

6. Immigration Issues: Managing immigration, both legal and illegal, remains a contentious issue, affecting labour markets, social services, and cultural integration.

These challenges collectively impact the U.S.'s social stability, economic growth, and global leadership position.

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CAPITALISM SOCIALISM AND DEMOCRACY

18 August 2024

 Summary of Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy by Joseph Schumpeter

1. Overview

- Published in 1942, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy is one of Joseph Schumpeter’s most influential works. It explores the dynamics of capitalism and its eventual evolution into socialism, as well as the role of democracy in this process.

2. Key Concepts

- Creative Destruction: Schumpeter introduces the concept of "creative destruction," where capitalism incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, destroying the old and creating the new. This process is seen as the driving force of innovation and economic growth.

  

- Capitalism’s Decline: Schumpeter argues that capitalism would ultimately decline, not because of its failures but because of its successes. He believes that the prosperity created by capitalism would lead to the rise of intellectuals and bureaucrats who would favor socialism over capitalism.

  

- Transition to Socialism: Schumpeter theorizes that capitalism will evolve into socialism, not through revolution, but through a gradual transformation as the state increasingly takes on economic functions. He suggests that socialism could be more efficient in managing the economy, particularly in large industries.

  

- Democracy’s Role: Schumpeter is skeptical about traditional democratic theory, proposing instead an “elitist” model of democracy. He argues that democracy is simply a method for choosing leaders, who then make decisions on behalf of the public, rather than a means for reflecting the popular will.

3. Implications

- Schumpeter’s work challenges both capitalist and socialist ideologies by suggesting that the fate of capitalism is to be replaced by a form of socialism that arises naturally from its own success. His ideas have influenced economic thought and political theory, particularly in discussions about the future of capitalism and the nature of democracy.

 Joseph Schumpeter's Famous Speech of 1949

Regarding this famous speech that Schumpeter made in 1949, six months before his death, this was a reflection on his life's work and a defense of his theories. The full text of this speech isn't widely available in public domain sources, only in the book. 

The speech was primarily delivered at an academic event and focused on his concerns about the future of capitalism and democracy, reaffirming some of the ideas he presented in Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. He remained convinced that capitalism would eventually give way to socialism, though he expressed concerns about what that would mean for individual freedom and innovation.

Links

Marc Faber

Doom boom gloom report Faber's website

Huxley Orwell Golding on Human Nature and Society - Animal Farm, referred to by Faber.

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WHY IS UKRAINE INVADING RUSSIA'S KURSK OBLAST

16 August 2024

WHY IS UKRAINE INVADING RUSSIA'S KURSK OBLAST

Ukraine destroys a bridge in Kursk province

This operation aligns with longstanding Western strategies, as outlined in RAND reports and geopolitical theories from Halford Mackinder's on, aimed at extending and stressing Russia to destabilise its leadership, fragment its vast territories and exploit its mineral food and energy resources by pushing it to the brink—much like a pack of predators slowly wears down its prey. Understanding this context is crucial to making sense of the otherwise perplexing tactical actions in regions like Kursk.

But this is a Western perspective. We need to understand the Ukrainian mentality, which is nearer to the Russians to make real sense of this incursion.

Strategy and tactics behind this incursion

All the comment I have seen misunderstands the purpose of this invasion. Trying to make strategic sense of this "special military operation" by American or NATO in Russia, they all scratch their heads and search around for understanding: 

- Maybe it's going for the nuclear power station and advantage at the negotiating table? But it would have to hold the territory for a pretty long time and Putin has said that he will never negotiate under these circumstances where his country has been invaded. 

- Maybe to break Russia's supply line, funnelling supplies into Belgorod and thence fanning out to Ukraine? This seems likely to me as three bridges in Cusk have been bombed but this is a limited objective as there are plenty of other supply lines open to Russia

- To provoke Russia in to using tactical nuclear weapons, which would mean it would lose Russia would lose the support of its friends and give NATO the excuse to invade

- Perhaps to divert Russian effort away from the Donbas, far more significant and where Ukraine is suffering heavy defeat? If this is the objective it hasn't worked as Russia has not transferred troops from Don Beth into Cusk negotiations,  try Ukraine has shifted its best men in to course in what looks like a very risky venture. 

- Demoralise the Russian army and people, the psychology of propaganda, win albeit temporarily the PR war and thus support from the sponsors?

- Simply to stymie any chance of  negotiations, as was done on previous attempts back in April of 2022 and the Minsk agreement of 2015? 

- Alternatively, to force the Russians into negotiations, with Ukraine having something to offer in exchange. 

RAND Report 2019 - stressing Russia

"Fear of Direct Attack on Russian Territory" 

"While many Westerners consider the idea of a direct military attack on Russia as not credible in light of the country’s massive nuclear arsenal, the Kremlin’s military procurement demonstrates that its fear of such an assault is very real. 

Russia originally developed its formidable air defense systems, such as the S-400, to defend its own heartland from attack by a major military power, presumably the United States. In contrast to the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation does not maintain a massive land army in readiness to invade Western Europe. Land forces are arrayed in depth and can quickly be concentrated as demonstrated in regular snap exercises. 

Russian officials and military thinkers continue to express anxiety about attacks against their territory. While Russian leaders might not necessarily believe all of  their own propaganda about U.S. military threats to their nation, they likely would still be willing to increase defense spending in response to a perceived intensification of the threat to their mainland or the  survivability of their nuclear forces. 

However, this reaction might have  deleterious effects on the security of the United States and its allies. It is clear that the Russian leadership’s fears of regime change, loss of great-power status, and even military attack, however exaggerated, offer points of vulnerability that may, with care, be exploited either to drive unnecessary expenditures or to  encourage better behavior." It is clear that this war was provoked some time before Putin entered Ukraine in February 2022

That is quoted from RAND_RR3063.pdf, page 72, published back in April 2019 in its report commissioned by the American Department of Defense. Rand was asked to provide a number of strategies for extending or stressing Russia to the point where its people turned against its leadership, its vast lands could be broken up into ethnic states and where the West, America, would be free to walk in and exploit its almost unlimited resources in food minerals and energy. 

To put it extremely simply and cynically, if the West could lay its hands on Russia's wealth, it could solve its number one problem of fiscal indebtedness and balance of payments deficit and extend the shelf life of its informal empire by possibly another hundred years. The stakes are enormous. Fundamentally, wars are driven by economic greed and the need to protect one's territories from ravenous enemies and America's leadership is absolutely ruthless, callous and calculating in its drive to preserve its hegemony.

So while all those reasons above may be true, the real American reasoning is just this running dog idea of extending Russia until it is so weakened it can be taken over, and the invasion of Kursk is just another strand In the strategy. Will it work? Doubtful. 

But Ukraine is Russian and the Russian attitude toward is really quite different watsonski is trying to achieve as he has said many times in recent months is to make Russia "feel" the war, thus to increase the weakness of Russia and push for negotiations this would be in line with Clausewitz thinking.

So we understand the strategic object even if the operational objective is not clear to us perhaps it was the power plant perhaps something else.

As such, no wonder everyone is scratching their head, because on its own, it doesn't make much sense and can only be understood as part of this overall running dog strategy of weakening Russia, as laid out very clearly in the Rand report of 2019.

Human Nature has ever been thus

I remember one of those wildlife films where there's a pack of a dozen or more dogs running alongside this zebra and eventually through exhaustion the zebra trips, breaks a hoof, falls and is eaten alive by the dogs.

Halford Mackinder's Heartland

The geopolitical reason for this war is contained in Halford Mackinder's treatise of 1904, amended in 1919, as recounted in a previous post.

America's strategy for dealing with the "geographic pivot of history" is containment. Mackinder was writing over 100 years ago, but his explanation is of the greatest contemporary importance and explains for example the trouble currently in Bangladesh, which is being used to contain India, pressure Russia and stop China from supplying arms to its ruskie ally.

How do the Russian elites view this? 

I would imagine their minds are cast back to the last time Russia was invaded, well it was the Soviet Union at the time and that was 1945. 

They must also think about 1812 when half a million men under Napoleon invaded because revolutionary France saw Russia as part of the ancien regime. They were not entirely French, there were soldiers from many European countries, looking for booty and glory, including many Poles, and in this sense 2024, with Nato plans and arms, resembles 1812. 

Strategies amongst many of Interest here used by the Russians to defeat Napoleon One was Simply Setting fire to the fields and destroying the forage so that the invading men and their horses had No food The second was that Alexander three transformed His people into a national army and this was a novelty at the time. So that might give some hint of Russia's response today For example while the incursion is being portrayed as a humiliation for Putin It may turn out Incur such Roth from the Russian people That NATO is pushed all the way back Out of Russia and out of Ukraine too. 

We have talked about Russia's need for security and it's need to plug the gaps in its natural defenses given that it has been invaded over 50 times and here is a further example of the rationale for Russia's defensive stance. I would imagine that Putin is livid - and he is by nature extremely calm cold and calculating, a former top KGBagent - so it is not surprising that he has stopped all negotiations and I guess that he will now move on Kiev. 

If you combine this invasion into Cusk with the continued attempts on the Crimean Bridge and the continued shelling of the evaporizia power station then the Russians must view this as an increasingly desperate Kiev turning to terrorism as a last Resort combine that with the fact that according to Moscow zielinsky no longer has a mandate to govern and you can understand why the Russians would finally say that they will not negotiate. 

What will happen next

I would imagine that as Russia has three times the number of men at arms than Ukraine and these men are trained and experienced, and with Russia having a free flow of arms and supplies (despite three Bridges being blown up) and Ukraine being resources being limited, I would imagine that this incursion will turn into what is called a fire bag for Ukraine.

If Ukraine tries expanding the territory it has so far captured, it will just be thinning out its troops and making it even more difficult for them to hold this area of Kursk region.

So I would guess that as this incursion was a surprise to the Russians, they will need a week or two to organise their counter attack, but that within the near future they will expel the the ukrainian invaders from their territory, "with heavy Ukrainian losses".

Meanwhile, if it is true that Ukraine has moved a part of its best forces from the Donbas to Kursk, while Russian resources in the Donbas remain unchanged, then I would guess that Russia will press forward even faster in rhe Donbas than it was doing before the Kursk incursion began.

In terms of what has been achieved, Ukraine has failed to take the power station, Ukraine has failed to deflect Russian attention in the Donbas, Ukraine has failed to discourage the Russian army or people. 

All we can see is that Kursk is turning into a firebag for the Ukrainians and providing Russia with an opportunity to progress with less resistance its frontline in the Donbas.

If you combine all of the above then it becomes clear that Russia will not negotiate with an increasingly terrorist regime in Kev but will instead take the east and subreddue the remainder of Ukraine probably including Odessa and Transnistria. 

Thus before leaving West Ukraine, Russia will have destroyed its infrastructure. Ukraine will be left as a stone age landlocked rump state with a government in hock to Moscow and looking to the EU and its taxpayers for rebuilding. 

Detailed analysis

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WHY YOU SHOULD NEVER INVADE RUSSIA

16 August 2024

The real reason for all this trouble between Russia and America can be found in framing military analysis of Halford Mackinder's treatise of 1904, amended in 1919.

It is about the timeless struggle between land and sea powers and how eastern europe, ukraine, georgia, the caucuses, and beyind is "The Geographical Pivot of History", as he called this frontier "seam" in 1904, before updating to The Heartland theory in 1919: the World Island, the Inner Crescent, the Outer Crescent.

His most fundamental idea is that a land power will beat a sea power, because it has a defendable border and near unlimited resources. Russia's defendable border is very far from Moscow, which is why Russia has gained the reputation of being an expansionist power.

Russia is flat steppe for thousands of kilometers, which is difficult to defend ... until you get to the natural defences. But those natural defences contain gaps which Russia is keen to plug. Let's trace Russia's borders: 

The Baltic Sea with the chokepoint Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the hundreds of kilometers of forests and swamps, along which Finland is busy, pointlessly far as a rational person can see, building a fence as well as stocking up on expensive and provocative new nuclear "defences" from the American arms industry.

The famous Suwałki Gap, a narrow strip of land about 65 kilometers wide between Lithuania and Poland bordering Kaliningrad. Then the heavily militarised Russian exclave of Kaliningrad itself.

The Carpathians, mountains that extend through Moldova, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, and Slovakia.

The Dniester river, Pripyat marshes, Vistula river, Dnieper river, Southern Bug, Danube.

Russia has been invaded over 50 times by armies passing through the gaps in its natural defences. For the story, this included Canada, and Sweden twice. So these would be Russia's natural borders, collectively forming a series of defensive lines that have historically been used to protect from invasions and to control the movement of armies between the Baltic and Black Seas.

Then beyond the Black Sea things get a little more complex, with a mix of mountainous terrain, rivers, and vast steppe lands, with the Caucuses mountains, the Volga river, the Caspian sea and the Ural mountains. 

The Caucuses' strategic position as a buffer zone against Middle East madness, its wealth of natural resources, but its complex ethnic, religious and political landscape. The powerful neighbours beyond the Caucuses and across history: the Persians, Ottomans, Mongols, more recently the Chechen wars.

Massive country, massive borders, massive threats. Russia has always had this reputation of being an expansionist power - this expanionist tendency is not without reason nor limit, as the above long list of imperfect natural defenses and their exploitation by various invading armies, shows.

But Russia is still around after over a thousand years and so while you should never doubt the word of the Chinese, similarly you should never contemplate invading Russia.

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IN WHAT WAY DOES HAMZA YOUSUF REPRESENT THE PEOPLE OF SCOTLAND

16 August 2024

This thought-provoking piece reflects on the controversial leadership of Humza Yousaf as the head of Scotland. It explores his political journey, the challenges he faces, and the broader implications of his leadership for Scottish society. The article provides a critical analysis of Yousaf's policies and their impact on Scotland's future, raising important questions about governance and representation.

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-manipulation-of-perception/

This all arose because Elon Musk called Hamza Yuosuf a racist and a scumbag. Scumbag cannot be proven, but that he is a racist is true since his only objection to people in positions of power is that their skin is white - that is the conclusion of this article. Hamza Yusuf for his part claims that the Scottish system is institutionally racist, which is pretty ironic given that he is an Asian Muslim male and head of Scotland's Parliament with a long career in ministerial positions of power.

So then we get into the row over freedom of speech on Twitter. The old Twitter banned and cancelled people whose views the management disagreed with, and the new Twitter under Musk allows a more balanced freedom of expression.

The old Twitter was good for the SNP because it allowed the SNP to cancel people, but the new is not good because different opinions are encouraged.

Then we get into the freedom of speech article, which argues 

- that hatred has always existed and is not a creation of social media. Suppressing opinions without addressing underlying issues is not a good idea because you drive people into the streets and eventually into Civil War. Yousuf Hamza could argue that non-whites' opinions are suppressed because they are under-represented in the Scottish Parliament, but this would be untrue because numerically there have been four Asian SMPs and that's about right for a population which is 96% white

  

- then the article suggests that individuals should take personal responsibility for managing content they find offensive. This includes using features like Mute and Block or reporting illegal content to the police, rather than expecting social media platforms like Twitter to do it for them.

- next, it is pointed out that criminal speech remains illegal, and defamation is still actionable, regardless of who owns Twitter. Opinions that one disagrees with are not a legal issue, they are a personal issue.

- the piece goes on to posit that the Left's criticism of Twitter under Musk is due to their loss of control over the platform, which they previously used to "cancel" people with whom they disagreed.

- new Twitter - X, if you prefer - is portrayed as a tool that makes it harder to lie to the public due to features like Community Notes, which allow quick corrections of misinformation, unlike traditional media.

- finally, this article suggests that politicians and media are trying to demonise and control Twitter because they fear the power it gives to ordinary people, rather than because they fear Elon Musk himself. Although the article doesn't say this, the authorities can see that major protest movements and the threat of civil war lie only a little further down the road and they need to control the people in order to assure the status quo.

It seems that this brown man got to be Scotland's First Minister for a number of reasons but one was not that he was elected by the people, he wasn't. Why is he Scotland's First Minister?

- First, his experience - Humza Yousaf is a member of the SNP and has built his career in the party over many years of holding various governmental positions

- He became First Minister of Scotland by being selected as a candidate by the SMPs or party members, not the general electorate - this is a widespread kind of "Electoral College" approach.

- So his base is the party's members, Scotland's elite, but in the country, his support must be very small indeed, especially after calling Scottish people and their system of governance racist, a fake news for which there is no evidence. Does anyone have any figures? I'd imagine he has no popular support - which begs the question what kind of democracy is this and why do the people of Scotland put up with this abusive person?

So I can understand why the SNP is popular: it is because of its focus on Independence. But I cannot see that its progressive, so-called progressive, policies have any support in the country and certainly useless Hamza must have 4% popular support maximum.

Where is the real "make Scotland great again" party? Where is the populist movement?

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THREE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD

6 August 2024

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THESE FACTORS INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD

This article looks at the factors influencing the price of gold and applies this to the current situation of major turmoil in the market.

A. Factors influencing the price of gold

According to Ramin Nakisa of PensionCraft, three main factors influence the price of gold:

1. Real Interest Rates

   - Explanation: Gold prices are inversely related to real interest rates. When real interest rates (interest rates adjusted for inflation) are low or negative, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making it more attractive to investors.

   - Impact: Lower real interest rates increase the price of gold, while higher real interest rates tend to decrease it.

2. Inflation

   - Explanation: Gold is often considered a hedge against inflation. When inflation rates rise, the purchasing power of currency decreases, and investors turn to gold to preserve value.

   - Impact: Rising inflation typically drives gold prices higher as investors seek to protect their wealth.

3. US Dollar Strength

   - Explanation: Gold is typically priced in US dollars, so there is an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and the price of gold. When the US dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for investors holding other currencies, increasing demand.

   - Impact: A weaker US dollar generally leads to higher gold prices, while a stronger dollar tends to lower gold prices.

These factors collectively influence gold prices by affecting investor behavior, the perceived value of gold as a safe haven, and its attractiveness relative to other assets.

B. Price of gold in today's market turmoil

Let's see how the above plays out in the real world.

1. Summary of Gold's Recent Performance

• All-Time Highs: Gold reached new all-time highs by the end of the week, 16 August 2024.

2. Potential Drivers of Gold Prices

• Multiple Factors: Gold prices are influenced by various drivers, with the three sighted above as the main factors, including:
  • Fed's Balance Sheet Size
  • Monetary Policy
  • Geopolitical Risk
  • Momentum
  • Inflation
• Current Focus: The weaker dollar is likely the main driver for the recent increase in gold prices.

3. Dollar Influence

• Weaker Dollar: As the dollar weakened, particularly with the euro rising above 1.1, gold tracked this movement and went higher.
• Interest Rate Cuts: The market expects significant rate cuts by the Fed, leading to a smaller interest rate differential between the US and other countries, contributing to the weaker dollar and higher gold prices.

4. Geopolitical Factors

• Middle East and Eastern Europe: Ongoing conflicts might have some impact, recent understandings suggest an increase in geopolitical risks, although many believe potential negotiations to de-escalate tensions will succeed. A major war will drive gold higher, driving risk off behaviour across all markets.
• Insider Knowledge: There’s a possibility that certain market participants might act on insider information regarding geopolitics and this might be the case here.

5. Monetary Policy and Central Bank Activity

• Global Rate Cutting Cycle: We are in a global rate cutting cycle, which generally supports higher gold prices due to easier monetary conditions.
• Central Bank Buying: Recent data suggest that major buyers like China have not been active in the gold market, so this surge may not be driven by central bank purchases.

6. Market Sentiment and Momentum

• Trend Followers: Markets like gold are influenced by trend-following strategies, where momentum can lead to further buying and push prices higher.
• Economic Policies: Some speculate that market reactions to Vice President Harris’s economic proposals, which could lead to stagflation, might influence gold prices, though this seems unlikely.

7. Outlook on Gold

• Positive Long-Term View: Despite potential volatility, there is a positive long-term outlook on gold, with the weaker dollar being a significant factor to watch.

This summary highlights the complexity of factors influencing gold prices, with a particular emphasis on the role of a weaker dollar in the recent surge.

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