Summary of "One tiny mistake could turn Cyprus into a new Gaza"
**1. Warning from Turkish-Cypriot Leader**: Ersin Tatar, leader of Northern Cyprus, warns that any minor incident, like the shooting of a Turkish soldier, could escalate into a major conflict. He draws parallels with Gaza, Ukraine, and Bosnia, highlighting the fragility of peace on the divided island.
**2. UN Meeting Anticipation**: Ahead of a meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Tatar emphasizes that Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots reject a one-state solution, advocating instead for a two-state solution to ensure peace and stability.
**3. Greek-Cypriot Position**: The internationally recognized government of Cyprus, led by Nikos Christodoulides, seeks reunification under the Republic of Cyprus, demanding the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the north. This stance is supported by Britain, the UN, the US, and the EU.
**4. Two-State Solution Advocacy**: Tatar, dismissing efforts for reunification as a "waste of time," argues for the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as an independent state. He hints at potential recognition from countries like Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
**5. Security Concerns and Military Presence**: The article mentions recent incidents of violence and tensions, emphasizing the strategic importance of Cyprus, including British military bases and the broader geopolitical implications involving NATO members Greece and Turkey.
**6. Economic and Diplomatic Stalemate**: Both sides face challenges related to the division, including economic impacts on tourism and international relations, as well as issues like the development of the abandoned resort of Varosha and offshore resources.
**7. Expert and Expat Views**: While experts like James Ker-Lindsay see a federal solution as the only viable path, some British expats in Northern Cyprus believe that a two-state solution might be the only way forward, citing long-standing issues and failed reunification efforts.
This summary encapsulates the complexity and sensitivity of the Cyprus issue, highlighting the divergent views on the path to peace and the potential for conflict escalation over minor incidents.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/04/turkey-cyprus-ersin-tatar-trnc-gaza-war/
One tiny mistake could turn Cyprus into a new Gaza
CONCEPTS
A Federal Arrangement
**1. Introduction**
The term *federal arrangement* in the context of Cyprus refers to a proposed solution to the island's long-standing division between the Greek Cypriot south and the Turkish Cypriot north. This proposal seeks to unify the island under a federal system, essentially creating a single state composed of two or more regional governments.
**2. The Historical Context**
Cyprus has been divided since 1974, when a coup d'état by Greek Cypriots aiming for union with Greece prompted Turkey to invade the northern part of the island. This led to the establishment of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey. Numerous attempts at reunification have been made, with a federal arrangement often proposed as a compromise solution.
**3. The Federal Arrangement Explained**
A *federal arrangement* would mean that Cyprus would be a federation of two constituent states – one Greek Cypriot and the other Turkish Cypriot. Each state would have its own government with considerable autonomy, while a federal government would handle national matters such as foreign policy, defense, and possibly economy. The exact powers and functions of the federal and state governments would need to be defined through negotiations.
**4. Benefits and Challenges**
The proposed federal solution aims to respect the identities and rights of both communities, ensuring that neither can dominate the other. It also seeks to bring stability, security, and prosperity to the island, opening up new opportunities for development and cooperation.
However, the arrangement faces significant challenges, including disagreements over territory, security guarantees, property rights, and the presence of Turkish troops on the island. Achieving a consensus on these issues remains a key obstacle.
**5. Conclusion**
The federal arrangement for Cyprus represents a hopeful yet complex path toward reconciling differences and healing a decades-long division. While it offers a framework for coexistence and shared governance, its success depends on the willingness of both communities to compromise and work together towards a common future.
**Glossary of Terms**
- *Federal Arrangement*: A system of government in which power is divided between a central authority and constituent political units.
- *Constituent States*: The individual political units that make up a federation, each with its own government and certain powers.
- *Autonomy*: The right or condition of self-government, especially in a particular sphere.
Devolution and Federation
**1. Introduction**
Understanding the concepts of *devolution* and *federation* is crucial in the realm of political science, particularly when discussing the distribution of powers within states. Both concepts relate to how authority is delegated from central governments to regional or local entities, yet they are fundamentally different in structure, operation, and impact.
**2. Definition of Key Terms**
- *Devolution*: The transfer or delegation of power to a lower level, especially by central government to local or regional administration, without relinquishing sovereignty.
- *Federation*: A political entity characterized by a union of partially self-governing states or regions under a central (federal) government.
**3. Structure and Sovereignty**
- *Devolution*: Involves a central government granting powers to regional governments, which can be unilaterally altered or revoked by the central authority. The central government retains sovereignty, and the power of regional governments is derived from and limited by the central government.
- *Federation*: Constitutes a constitutional arrangement that divides sovereignty between the federal government and the constituent states. Both levels of government act directly upon the citizens through their own sets of laws, and neither can unilaterally alter the fundamental agreements of the federation.
**4. Flexibility and Autonomy**
- *Devolution*: Offers flexibility as the central government can adjust the devolved powers in response to political, social, or economic needs. However, this flexibility means that the autonomy of the devolved administrations can be relatively unstable or inconsistent over time.
- *Federation*: Provides a stable structure of autonomy where constituent states have constitutionally guaranteed powers. This stability fosters a sense of autonomy and self-determination within the states, but it can also lead to rigidity and difficulties in adapting to change.
**5. Examples**
- *Devolution*: The United Kingdom is a prime example, where Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have their own devolved parliaments or assemblies with varying degrees of legislative power.
- *Federation*: The United States and Australia are examples of federations, where the states have their own government and legislature, with certain powers reserved to the federal government.
**6. Conclusion**
While both *devolution* and *federation* aim to bring governance closer to the people by decentralizing powers, they differ significantly in their approach to sovereignty, autonomy, and structural stability. Devolution implies a more centralized form of governance with conditional autonomy, whereas federation emphasizes a balanced distribution of power and sovereignty between the central and regional governments.
**Glossary of Terms**
- *Sovereignty*: Supreme power or authority.
- *Constituent States*: States that are part of a federal union, having their own local governments but united under a central federal government.
- *Legislature*: A deliberative assembly with the authority to make laws for a political entity such as a country or city.
ARTICLE
Ersin Tatar, the Turkish-Cypriot leader, says the island lives in fear of a ‘little flare-up’ and a two-state solution is the only answer
Nick Squires
IN NICOSIA
4 April 2024 • 10:29am
Destroyed and deserted hotels line the shore in the abandoned Turkish-occupied city of Varosha in Cyprus
Turkey will not accept a one-state solution for Cyprus and a “little flare-up” on the divided island could spark a conflict similar to those in Gaza and Ukraine, the leader of the breakaway north has warned ahead of a meeting with the head of the UN.
A mistake or misunderstanding such as the shooting of a Turkish soldier on the Green Line that divides the two sides would provoke “a bomb” between the two populations, who have been at loggerheads for decades, said Ersin Tatar.
“If you shoot one Turkish soldier you will have 10,000 soldiers on the ground,” Ersin Tatar, the Cambridge-educated president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), told The Telegraph in an interview at his colonial-era mansion in the divided capital of Nicosia.
“Everybody should be calm and reasonable. Turkish Cypriots are not alone – we have got 85 million Turks behind us and they are just 40 miles away.
“A little flare-up, that is what people are fearing. Look at what happened in Gaza. And before that, Ukraine. Before that, Bosnia.”
Mr Tatar’s warning comes ahead of his meeting with Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary General, in New York on Friday, amid renewed efforts to solve the frozen conflict 50 years after it first erupted.
They are expected to discuss the work so far of Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar, a Colombian diplomat and Mr Guterres’ personal envoy, who has been sent to Cyprus to try to kickstart talks after years of stalemate.
Ersin Tatar (pictured), the president of the TRNC, will meet with Antonio Guterres to solve the frozen Turkey-Cyprus conflict
Ersin Tatar (pictured), the president of the TRNC, will meet with Antonio Guterres to solve the frozen Turkey-Cyprus conflict CREDIT: Sam Tarling
Greek Cypriots want to see the island united under the flag of the Republic of Cyprus. That would involve Turkey giving back the northern territory it seized during what Turkish Cypriots call “the intervention” in response to a Greek military coup and attempted union with Greece in 1974.
The Greek Cypriots regard the TRNC as a rogue state and say the tens of thousands of Turkish troops who are stationed there must leave the island. The breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is not recognised by any country other than Turkey.
“I will spare no effort to realise the common dream of reunification,” Nikos Christodoulides, the president of the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus, said recently.
That plan is backed by Britain, the former colonial power, as well as the UN, the United States and the EU, all of whom have spent decades trying to bring the two sides together for negotiations.
But Mr Tatar, who was elected in 2020, dismissed such efforts as a “waste of time”.
“That’s all past. All those opportunities have been exhausted,” he said.
“How can you unite an island like this after so many years? You cannot possibly unite Cyprus. You have to face the facts and accept reality.”
Two-state solution
The only option now is a two-state solution in which TRNC is accepted as an independent state, said Mr Tatar, a hardline nationalist who is close to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the authoritarian leader of Turkey.
“Since 1974 we have had two states, two regions, two sovereign powers in Cyprus living side by side, coexisting. The only way forward is a two-state solution,” he said.
“Recognition might take time but as time goes by, we consolidate more.”
He suggested that Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Bangladesh may soon recognise the TRNC as an independent country.
At stake is peace on the island of 1.2 million people, where the British army has two key military bases under UK sovereign control, RAF Akrotiri and Dhekelia.
The bases provide the UK with a permanent presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and offer a staging post for military and humanitarian operations.
Greece and Turkey are also both members of Nato.
Recent clashes
Although the island is considered safe to travel around, there have been incidents of violence recently.
In February, a group of eight Turkish Cypriot students were allegedly attacked with sticks and stones by Greek Cypriots during a trip to the Troodos Mountains in the south.
Last August, several UN peacekeepers, including British soldiers, were injured in a clash with Turkish Cypriots who were trying to build a new road to a village in the buffer zone that divides the island.
“We don’t want a clash and they [Greek Cypriots] shouldn’t want a clash,” said Mr Tatar.
“They have five million tourists visiting them each year, especially from the UK. If there is a bomb going off – pop! – not one tourist will come. They will go bankrupt.”
Cyprus has become one of the world’s most intractable diplomatic problems, with each side blaming the other for the failure to find a settlement.
Amid decades of animosity, the two sides argue over how they will share the huge reserves of offshore oil and gas in Cypriot waters as well as the future of Varosha, the once glamorous beach resort that was abandoned by Greek Cypriots and occupied by the Turks during the war in 1974.
Varosha
Varosha has been left abandoned for 50 years
For 50 years it has been a ghost town, its perimeter guarded by barbed wire and Turkish troops while the once glitzy hotels and restaurants that line a long sweep of golden beach slowly decay.
In 2020, the Turkish Cypriots unilaterally opened up part of the ghost town, to the fury of the Greek Cypriots, who owned most of the property in the area.
The Turkish Cypriots want to develop the abandoned resort, despite a UN resolution condemning any attempt to resettle it by anyone other than the Greek Cypriots who were forced out half a century ago.
Turkish Cypriots complain bitterly that they are subject to trade embargos and travel restrictions – it is only possible to fly to Northern Cyprus via Istanbul, for instance, a hassle which deters many potential tourists.
That will not change until there is a solution to the conflict, however.
Four Seasons resort in North Cyprus
Turkish Cypriots complain that they are subject to travel restrictions, deterring tourists
James Ker-Lindsay, a British expert on Cyprus from the London School of Economics, said a federal, unified state remains the only viable solution for Cyprus and that the chances of the TRNC being recognised as an independent country by the rest of the world are zero.
“It’s not going to happen. In the context of everything we are seeing in Ukraine, the EU and US will not want to be seen to legitimise territorial changes that took place as a result of military action.”
But it is not just politicians from the north who feel that the push for a unified island is now a hopeless cause.
Some of the 15,000 British expats living in the TRNC also sympathise with the Turkish Cypriots.
Many of them live in the mountains overlooking the ancient harbour town of Kyrenia, where they look after the old British Cemetery and a memorial to the 371 British servicemen who lost their lives in the late 1950s during clashes with EOKA, the Greek Cypriot nationalist guerilla organisation that fought against British rule.
“The Turkish Cypriots have tried, they really have. I think the two-state solution is now the only way,” said Peter Wilkins, a former police officer from London who moved to the island eight years ago.
Mike Diplock, a retired policeman and a member of the British Residents Society who has lived in Northern Cyprus since 2007, said: “After such a long time, the federal arrangement is just not going to work. You can’t keep flogging a dead horse.”
