UK HOUSE PRICES

14 March 2024

https://youtu.be/7IhxhF1o5_A?si=dCiuW_mthnnFuSXt

In the video from the highly reputed Youtube channel Pensioncraft, Ramin delves into the dynamics of the UK housing market, providing a comprehensive analysis that strips away the inflationary sheen to reveal the real underlying trends in house prices over the decades. 

Notably, the video rates change in house prices alongside change in UK wages and inflation to show how the latter drive the former.

Ramin is bang on with his stunning analysis that, "as always" (his catchphrase), challenges popular perceptions.

Summary of Key Points

1. Long-Term House Price Trends

The video begins with historical data from Nationwide (1973-2018), emphasising the close relationship between UK wages and house prices. 

Ramin's baseline is a quite nuanced discussion on the real value of houses, ie after adjusting for inflation, highlighting that the growth in house prices has only modestly outpaced wages and inflation.

2. The Real Value of House Prices 

So, a critical revelation is the real value of house prices when adjusted for inflation.

Ramin's analysis suggests that the real growth rate of house prices across the UK averages at 1.1% above inflation, with regional variations. 

London, for instance, sees a higher real growth rate at 2%, compared to Scotland 0.5% and the North 0.6%. This debunks the myth of universally high returns on simple  property investments - you need to add value or buy cheap in order to make a decent return.

3. Current Market Dynamics

The latest trends: a recent peak in average house prices at around £258,000, followed by a decrease attributed to rising interest rates. Taking a look at current market conditions within a longer history of house price fluctuations, particularly note significant downturns in the 1990s and during the global financial crisis.

4. Adjusting for Inflation

So, the stark reality is that, after adjusting for inflation, house prices have not grown as significantly as raw figures suggest. In fact, in real terms, house prices today are comparable to those in 2004, growing at 1.1% annually net of inflation, while you could expect around 5% net on the stock exchange if you follow unemotionally a plan

(Ramin elsewhere recommends investing in just one asset: an MSCI developed market index tracker ... it's actually quite a complex calculation comparing a house purchase where you are borrowing a huge wedge of money on which you have to pay interest and investing it in property where you also live, with investing on the stock market where you're setting aside a small monthly sum of your own cash each month).

5. Regional Variations and Future Projections

His analysis extends to regional disparities in house price growth and projections for the future, considering factors like the evolution of interest rates, wage growth, and what he calls "the price-to-earnings ratio" - ie the price of a property divided by the average annual wage - it's a whopping 9.9 in London, but much lower in the regions. 

Ramin makes the case that without significant wage increases or changes in the expensiveness of houses relative to earnings, substantial house price growth is unlikely.

6. Reflection on Housing Affordability 

What about housing affordability, particularly for younger generations striving to enter the market? 

Likely to remain difficult, a substantial correction in the housing market is unlikely due to persistently high price-to-earnings ratios (9.9 in London, wow!) and also the ever-present problem of limited supply, not to mention (he doesn't, but we know...) a seemingly endlessly rising population.

For those who get this far, listen to his caution about expecting more money from the sale of your house in today's climate.

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HOW CAN WESTERN GOVTS TAKE CHARGE OF EVENTS AND REGAIN THE TRUST OF CITIZENS

12 March 2024

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/11/too-late-for-west-corpse-that-cannot-be-galvanised/

1. This is about the effectiveness of Western democracies, particularly the UK's and our inability to respond to threats.

2. UK government inaction, ministers as spectators rather than actors.

3. disconnect between politicians and the public sector, institutions hijacked by activists.

4. erosion of public trust in democratic institutions and processes.

5. a lack of national unity and failure to create a patriotic consensus.

6. the next govt needs to plan for radical state reforms and re-engagement with its supporters to regain control and trust.

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EXCESSIVE CONFIDENCE COMES BEFORE A FALL

10 February 2024

The inspiration for this image was what Mearsheimer calls "the anarchy of international geopolitics". It's "survival of the fittest", "might is right", the expanionist greed of a state's elite combined with its uncertainty concerning the intentions of its neighbours.

Hasn't it always been thus? Yes it has.

So Mearsheimer's "Great Power Politics", combined with the "call of the wild" you see in wildlife programs, an "echo of the savanne" realisation. 

I remember a clip of hyenas running alongside a zebra, in a chase of attrition, gradually reducing the strength of the animal, weakening it until it was exhausted. The zebra tripped, broke its foot, fell and was eaten. 

The rulers of the world are just the same running dogs really. That seems to be reality whether you're on the plains of Africa or in the corridors of Washington. 

They manipulate and control their empire of Western states, think they can run the world, outrun the world, but just as every dog has its day, so America - current Hegemon, Godzilla! - could reflect that hubris and excessive arrogance come before a fall, or as Mearsheimer puts it, look at America's track record in foreign policy disasters and you'd conclude that it has the Midas touch in reverse!

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WHAT IS NAZISM ANYWAY

11 March 2924

With accusations of Nazism flying around, it would be good to know what we accuse the others of.

Links

https://x.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1766526287223382038?s=20

Popular beliefs

https://youtu.be/0gfYbEk6rBY?si=ZUd18PY3BeHQQ0Bc

Ryan Chapman on popular beliefs

Intro

Nazism, aka National Socialism, is an ideology and practice associated with the Nazi Party, the National Socialist German Workers' Party (NSDAP) of Germany during its Nazi decade in the 1930s 1940s. Nazi is a label applied widely to other so-called far-right groups who are suspected of extreme nationalist, racial, and authoritarian ideas.

Key elements of Nazism

1. Extreme Nationalism and Racial Supremacy

Nazism promoted German nationalism and the superiority of the "Aryan master race" and conversely denigrating those deemed inferior, especially Jews. This thinking was the root cause of the Holocaust.

Nationalism or patriotism, the motherland or fatherland, a sense of belonging, of something worth protecting, is perhaps the strongest force in politics. Nazism carries this force to extremes, where the indivodual completely loses the idea of self as they are buried in the idea of the hive.

2. Führerprinzip (Leader Principle)

This principle of authoritarianism suggested that a single leader (Hitler) had absolute authority, contrasting with democratic governance, though the people of Germany voted Hitler into power.

This required a system of government that is centralised and dictatorial and requires complete unquestioning belief inthe infallibility of the leader and total submission from its citizens to the will of the state.

3. Anti-Semitism

A core tenet, leading to the systematic persecution and genocide of six million Jews, along with some other minorities during the Holocaust.

4. Anti-Communism

Nazism was vehemently opposed to communism and socialism, seen as threats to the Aryan race.

5. Expansionism

The pursuit of Lebensraum ("living space") aimed at expanding German territories, particularly to the east, leading to World War II.

6. Militarism

A glorification of military power and the belief that war and conflict were inevitable aspects of human society.

Conclusion

According to historians, Nazism was marked by its brutality, the establishment of a totalitarian state, and the aggressive expansionism that led to World War II, resulting in millions of deaths. Its legacy is universally condemned for its crimes against humanity, including the Holocaust, and its impact on global history.

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A REVISED ZIONIST MANIFESTO

9 March 2024

This is a manifesto for a revised Zionist philosophy. It is intended for integrating into a constution for a modern state. The Consitution will articulate the concept of a  one-state or two-state solution, chosen according to results of a referendum, along with assurances of equal rights for all citizens, as anticipated in the Balfour Declaration. Governance would be overseen by the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

So this is an updated and revised Zionist Manifesto. It is fit to fold into the Constitution of a modern liberal social-democratic nation, operating in a post-colonial world. 

This Manifesto is articulated and endorsed by well-intentioned people of the Jewish faith. It sets goals for prosperity, progress and justice at home and abroad, together with respect for the environment.

This revision to Zionist philosophy reflects a comprehensive, practical and inclusive approach to nation-building.

The Neo-Zionist Manifesto, 

rev. 01, March 2024

---

The Updated Zionist Manifesto

This document lays out the foundational ideals and aspirations of the Zionist movement, dedicated to the creation of a Jewish non-exclusive homeland, whilst recognising the evolving context of our times and the aspirations of all peoples in the region.

1. Foundation of a Democratic Inclusive State

We affirm the establishment of a sovereign  state within the historic boundaries of Palestine, delineated from the Mediterranean Sea to the River Jordan, and from the Negev Desert to the Lebanese frontier, committed to peace and security for all its inhabitants and respectful of all religious commumities.

2. National Unity and Cultural Revival

Our movement is rooted in the unification of Jewish people, the revival of the Hebrew language, and the promotion of our rich historical and cultural heritage, shaping a society that values diversity and historical consciousness.

3. Clear Geographic Demarcation

We pledge to define our state's borders clearly, ensuring a secure, recognised, and sustainable homeland for the nation, which includes people of the Jewish faith, while respecting the territorial integrity and political sovereignty of neighbouring states.

4. Commitment to Inclusivity and Equality

The envisaged state is a beacon of democracy, guaranteeing equal rights, freedoms, and opportunities for all its citizens, irrespective of their religious or ethnic affiliations, under a Revised Constitution that embodies the principles of this Manifesto.

5. Two-State Solution and International Peace

While our core mission focuses on the establishment of a national homeland for the different communities living within the agreed geographic boundaries, we acknowledge the broader regional aspiration for peace and stability, which includes support for a two-state solution, recognising the legitimate national aspirations of both Jewish and Palestinian peoples within internationally, possibly identical, agreed borders.

Any one-state solution will express power-sharing arrangements that grant the possibility equally to all citizens to participate directly, through vote-from-home or through a system of party representation, in a modern democracy.

6. Economic Development and Social Justice

We are dedicated to building an economy that enhances the quality of life for all residents, driven by innovation, fairness, and a commitment to eradicating inequality, ensuring social justice and respecting the environment.

7. Global Solidarity and Legal Oversight

We seek to fortify international alliances, advocating for global recognition and support, and affirming our commitment to uphold the principles of international law, with the expected Revised Constitution containing egalitarian mandates subject to oversight by the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

This manifesto reaffirms our unwavering dedication to establishing a land which provides for people of different faiths and exemplifies democratic values, social justice, peaceful coexistence and planetary survival, ensuring a prosperous and secure future for all its inhabitants, in harmony with nature, the global community and international legal standards.

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IT IS ALL DOOM AND GLOOM IN THE UK

8 March 2024

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/06/britain-already-too-far-down-road-to-serfdom-to-turn-back/

This article is a damning perspective on UK present and future. The blame rests with politicians, who have destroyed much that was good, who have little new of value to offer, and get off scott free raising doubts about this phase of "Liberal democracy".

The article argues and substantiates the following points:

1. Britain's political, economic and societal trajectories irrevocably undermine individual and economic freedoms, markedly tilting towards state oversight and management.

2. Fundamental values of democracy and market economics are compromised, endangering the country's core principles.

3. Escalating state intervention restricts personal autonomy, leading to an excessively regulated society.

4. Consequences manifest as economic stagnation and a trend towards reliance on governmental support.

5. Politicians are critiqued for these outcomes, the decision-makers are unaccountable, detached, from their enduring consequences.

6. Rising public disenchantment as liberties diminish and capitalist values decline.

7. The UK's direction appears set, shifting from liberal towards authoritarian governance.

8. A warning against complacency in the face of expanding state control and eroding individual freedoms.

9. "both main parties agree on almost everything when it comes to the economy. They offer no real choice, no clash of vision, no alternative to Britain’s slow drift into social democratic irrelevance, no genuine solution to mending our broken public services"

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WINNING STRATEGY FOR SUCCESS IN THE STOCK MARKETS

6 March 2024

Well with weak growth in the economy, all we can hope for is lower interest rates, and yet we are told inflation is "sticky".

So will they cut the rate or not? And if they do before inflation has been "unstuck", won't it just "re-stick" and then the stick will be all over their faces!

Plus, what will happen at the General Election? And not just here, but in the US too?

And if all these near-term risks are navigable (which they aren't - nobody can understand, not even AI), if you think these are just passing "blips", best think again, as isn't the West in "secular decline"?

So with rates, inflation, growth, elections and end-of-the-West, expect a lot of volatility (well it's here already).

Being positive means seeing volatility as "opportunity". Opportunity!

Buy sector-leading companies when they're cheap, like when the share price is at a 52-week low...

....and remember to sell when it's "bounced back" ha ha momentum, ie put on 15% to reach a higher point in its 52-week sine-wave journey.

If you made a mistake (which will be true one case in two), sell if price drops 7% (a one-size-fits-all universal stoploss rule).

See you in the Soup Kitchen !!!

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MOVING ON FROM THE COLONIAL LEGACY

4 March 2024

I guess people in countries that were colonised, eg South America, must think about colonisation - if ever they do think about it - in terms of "there but the grace of God go I", aswhere we in the West have suffered considerable "reverse colonisation" - the new arrivals say "we are over here because you were over there".

Over time since the sixties, we've had to change the curricula in schools, rewrite history to include revisionist points of view ie accounts written from the points of view of the colonised as well. Schoolchildren today learn about the mistreatment of the people in the colonies eg the way the Indonesians were treated by the Dutch was nothing to be proud of, they kept them pig-ignorant for example.

Accepting these revisions had developed in us a sense of responsibility for what happened, and a desire for corrective justice. 

Our obsession with colonisation comes from the "diversity" in the populations at home, and also from "globalisation" as we travel abroad for business and leisure. We have become sensitive and aware of these issues of equality, respect and justice.

This is an awareness that minority groups in our midst now shout across the social media, they shout the need for social change, they want the same opportunities and rights as the natives enjoy. 

Through empathy, they get it, after all we were at school together and now we're at work together. Empathy means inclusivity and acceptance, as the basis for equal treatment. 

Empathy explains this push to reconsider public symbols of past glories, like statues and monuments, which make heroes of figures from that past that may have caused great suffering to families back in the homeland. Today, the pioneers sent to open up lands for colonisation are not heroes, their exploits are not heroic, they are tyrants, slave masters and these reminders of past glories are offensive. 

Social change needs leaders, so we get political movements like BLM and we get what's called "historical revisionism" and we learn, accept and move on.

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WHAT DOES IT TAKE FOR THE LSE TO OUTPERFORM OTHER GLOBAL EXCHANGES

3 March 2024

It is curious how the London Stock Exchange's FTSE 100, FTSE 250, and FTSE 350 indexes are underperforming, vis-a-vis New York's Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and NASDAQ, and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index).

Why is this, what could be done about it and should investors invest in the LSE in anticipation of some re-rating?

SENTIMENT

With the exception of Rolls-Royce, all good results are met with negative comment. At what point will the UK's London Stock Exchange become investable to international investors?

Over in New York, investing genius Ray Dalio said this week: "The stock market doesn't look very bubbly", but Bank of America just released a new report titled: "The S&P 500 is egregiously expensive"

So who's right? The S&P has risen for 15 out of the past 17 weeks -- a feat not seen since 1989 -- the current rally is "extremely long in the tooth" and the odds of a correction are high....is now the time to shift liquidity to London?

THE INTEREST RATE CYCLE

Since 1900, equities have outperformed bonds, bills and inflation in every market for which there is a continuous history.

The majority of long-run asset returns are earned during easing cycles. The annualised return on US stocks was 9.4 per cent, 3.6 per cent for bonds, during easing cycles; compared with just 3.6 per cent and -0.3 per cent during hiking cycles. Data for the UK shows a similar pattern.

We are entering a cycle of easing interest rates at this time. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, potentially boosting investment and spending across sectors. Lower interest rates would also diminish the attractiveness of fixed-income investments like bonds, leading to a shift in capital towards equities as investors search for higher returns. 

In a low-interest-rate environment, businesses can borrow more, which can lead to capital expansions, acquisitions, and increased profitability.

INVESTABILITY GUAGE

As we've seen, Britain ranked third in terms of world investable equity market value - a long way behind the dominant US, and Japan too, unfortunately. 

BIG CAP V. SMALL

Large firms everywhere, including the UK, are - for reasons I don't much understand - more and more outperforming their peers. It seems to be to do with big investors seeking reliable quality and profitability. Not to say that in growth cycles, small caps outperform large.

REASONS FOR UK UNDER PERFORMANCE

So why is it that UK listed companies underperform? 

They are on very attractive valuations  This is one reason why new companies list in New York rather than London, especially Tech, to achieve higher share price multiples to earnings and higher valuations. Building materials group CRH is one example . It moved its primary listing to the US last year, a blow to ambitions for London as a global financial centre.

UK FTSE 100 companies are international, so diversified income streams.

They pay handsome dividends, they are undervalued and we are all heading into an easing rate cycle. 

EARNINGS SURPRISES

When a company publishes its results, it always also is noted the "earnings surprise", ie actual to analysts' expectations, to the upside or downside.

Well, Shore Capital notes the ratio of +ve surprises to -ve's is on the up, another reason to be cheerful, yet reactions to any misses, especially on dividends (the LSE offers income while New York offers growth) – are exaggerated. 

Furthermore, the pound is expected to continue to weaken against the dollar and this should drive SP gains for companies with important overseas earnings.

HOW COULD LONDON MOVE AHEAD

So what is missing to put the LSE back on global investors' maps? 

Far as I can see, it needs to be established that the UK is not heading into a recession ... on the contrary that earnings are improving. If that can happen then there should be strong capital inflows into UK equities; and the observation that share prices up more in an easing rate cycle will be proven once again.

It would also help if big investors like banks and insurance companies could invest their customers' money in the UK rather than sending it overseas. And the UK PM Rishi Sunak, with his finance background, is seeing to these points.

WILL THE LSE PERFORM?

The LSE is a problem. I dont think I have seen a positive story on the LSE for a long long time. It's all doom and gloom. Why is it fairing so badly? 

No tech sector - that's where the big gains are, other markets like New York are far more attractive. 

The poor state of the UK economy.

The dismal state of political leadership and direction- how many prime ministers in a few years?

A perception that returns from the uk will be lower than say the USA.  

How's that for a short list. Someone said the LSE is going the same way as the Irish stock market!! The stat.s show British institutions and individuals would rather invest elsewhere than the LSE.

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THE POWER OF AI : EXAMPLE - ARCHITECTURAL DESIGN CONCEPT

2 March 2024

THE PROMPT

We need a design concept for a 450-bed hotel on Sanur Beach, Bali.

The design should incorporate classic Balinese architectural features, references to the sea and traditional fishing, intimate spaces with pools and gardens for the guests, and private accommodation blocks. 

The design should aim to create visual harmonies, rhythm, and interesting vistas, blending modern and traditional elements.

Please create two design concept images.

THE DESIGN CONCEPT

Returned one minute later. Wow

THE PROMPT

We need design concept images for a 4-bedroom, 2-storey house in Yogyakarta

 Two concept design images are required. One should showcase the exterior with classic Javanese architectural features and gardens. They should highlight a harmonious blend of modern and traditional design, focusing on natural light and open spaces.

THE DESIGN CONCEPT

THE PROMPT

We need design concept images for a 4-bedroom, 2-storey house in Chiang Mai, Thailand

 Two concept design images are required. One should showcase the exterior with classic Lanna architectural features and gardens. They should highlight a harmonious blend of modern and traditional design, focusing on natural light and open spaces.

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HOW DOES ISRAEL JUSTIFY ITS ACTIONS IN GAZA

1 March 2024

Let's take a look at the situation in Gaza and Israel and consider the various justifications in defense of Israel's actions: 

1. Israel is a democracy

Democracies respect human rights and international law. 

Being a democracy does not grant a state the right to bomb its neighbours. 

Israel's democratic status is not applicable to the Palestinians under its control.

2. IDF operations limit civilian casualties 

The IDF minimises civilian deaths by warning civilians of impending bombings and advising civilians of safe areas where they can find refuge. 

Despite these warnings, the high civilian death toll and the indiscriminate nature of the bombings, indicate a failure to protect non-combatants. 

Further, so-called safe areas are bombed and out-of-play areas like hospitals and schools and mosques are bombed.

3. Israel is acting in self-defence

While self-defence is legitimate, the disproportionate response and the indiscriminate bombing exceed the bounds of lawful self-defence, constituting war crimes.

4. The objective is to eliminte the cause: Hamas

Yet, despite prolonged military efforts, Hamas is still intact. The strategy is ineffective and risks enhancing Hamas's standing among Palestinians.

5. Israel is combating terrorism

The justification that the bombings are necessary to combat terrorism is false.

 Israel's violence, far from defeating terrorism, risks instead fostering resentment and the desire for revenge, nourishing a breeding ground for still more terrorism, and perpetuating and deepening the historic cycle of violence. 

6. Israel is liberating the Palestinian people from Hamas control

This is a cynical argument. Hamas was voted into office in 2006. 

It is callous mockery to  claim liberation through the killing of the very people supposedly being liberated.

7. Civilian casualties are inevitable in any war

There is a distinction between legitimate wartime casualties and the unlawful killing of civilians, which constitutes a war crime. 

The ratio of civilian to combattant deaths is higher than in WW2 and considerably higher than in Ukraine.

8. Crticism of Israeli actions is nothing more than anti-semitism

Labelling criticisms of Israel's policies as antisemitic is intended to stifle legitimate debate and distract from what is really going on ie from Israel's true nefarious intentions.

The main point to see is how focusing on 7 October ignores the history of Israel's enduring and provocative intention to seize the land of Palestinians and clear it of Palestinians, under the ideology of Zionism and the justification of legitimate self-defence, security and a sahe homeland for the Jewish people. 

What we need is a nuanced understanding of the conflict that considers the historical pre-7-October context and contemporary post 7-October events. These complexities, rather than excuses for violence through simplified narratives or invalid justifications.

Links

https://youtu.be/l4D-ya7CWvM?si=A9t0gJ3MfsdX6-3e

https://youtu.be/Dgyh8NX7pZU?si=Mr4fnUNy0cFYoYN4

https://youtu.be/r4ss3ptSlDw?si=t6WP_ZDt6pYz-Qaz

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