HOPES FOR PEACE IN THE WORLD 2024

13 January 2024

In three geopolitical regions of the world now - the Middle East, Europe and East Asia - the future of humanity and this planet is threatened by all-out direct war between super-powers, so let us try to imagine how peace might descend on the world in 2024.

PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Various currents are coming together in the Middle East with the Arab nations uniting in a sense of common identity and a common future. Relaxing this way results in a more tolerant and less aggressive interpretation of Islam, a drawing away from America and the West, a turning East looking to Asia and  emerging groupings such as the BRICS, and an increasing self-reliance, confidence and self-assertiveness.

Iran to the East is Persian of course, but is included in the Middle East, as is Turkey to the North in the Proche Orient, together with Egypt to the West linking the Middle East to North Africa. This makes the Middle East a crossroads between Asia Europe and Africa.

Arab nations finding common cause is a big problem for Israel. Israel sees itself as a separate ethnic group, but Jews and Arabs are semites, what tells them apart is their religion. Jews are a religious community not an ethnic grouping. Israel is governed by Ashkenazi Jews holding to an extreme version - and political ideology - of the religion called Zionism. Let's remember that Zionism was built by the mad Ashkenazis fleeing the maddening European pogroms (so in a sense we created this horror, a kind of anti-Christ philosophy sharing much with the philosophy of that mustachioed gentleman). 

Will Israel catch up on this new trend from aggression to tolerance? It is certainly in its interests to do so. After all, if Israel wants to be accepted by its neighbours, then surely it should accept its Muslim subjects by according them rights of citizenship. And what if America recalibrates to gradually withdraw from the ME - the Jewish Lobby would become powerless to retainAmerican suppory for the 51st state*.

So point being that although absolutely no-one believes In a one-state solution, that is only because people here, Western elites and popular opinion, are trapped in yesterday's thinking. It is quite possible that Israelis will come to abandon Zionism as unworkable - they are a very pragmatic lot, which accounts for their outstanding success as well as their widespread persecution ("anti-Zionist", not "anti-Semitic"!) - and accept a non-apartheid, one-state solution where they live cheek by jowl with other Arab albeit non-hebraic, people, as they did before "Partition" ... And if it can't do this then remember that Humpty Dumpty could not be put back together again (look at where America's foreign policy mistakes have left Its victims today).

...Of course you could say that this confuses the meaning of Semite and Arab and  overlooks the profound hostility expressed in the Quran towards Jewish people, but then again wasn't there also a similar hostility between Sunni and Shia?

So that is the hope for peace in the Middle East and the alternative is that the Jewish community evacuate to another part of the world, possibly Argentina, to avoid destruction.

* Is America's Israel Lobby Ashkenazi? My impression is that the only Messianic Zionists are those living in Israel and that American Jews are far more liberal, ignorant of what is happening in Gaza and not entirely Jewish.

PEACE IN EUROPE

If the Middle East is toning down the aggression, finding a unity, drawing away from America and developing a self-reliance; then could this be a global trend that will eventually hit Europe? In other words, in a spiritual re-awakening, might Western Europe come to realise that it has much in common with the rest of humanity and in particular those Europeans living the other side of the border-zone between West Europe and Russia? We in West Europe certainly need to draw away from the American neocons as they have brought disaster upon us, so that would be a long and difficult path to follow, requiring technology and military industries and a security framework with Rissia, but a most welcome path.

In support of this argument about a new trend sweeping out of desert, we can remind ourselves that the three abrahamic religions, which are followed by 60% of humanity, originated in the Middle East, meaning this move to peace and tolerance has a spiritual dimension.

Those are quite reasonable hopes for peace in the Middle East and in Europe and while we are at it, consider the situation between America and China.

PEACE BETWEEN CHINA AND AMERICA

The issue with Taiwan is much the same as the issue with Ukraine. China does not want an American platform on its border, containing, or limiting, its freedom of movement, and threatening its sovereignty and security. 

You could argue that if Taiwan can promise neutrality, it will be spared destruction, in the same way that the government in Kiev was most unwise to accept the invitation to join NATO, and the people of Israel to follow the extreme beliefs of the Likud party.

The destruction of Taiwan would not be good news for America's strategy of containment, but neither would it be good for China because China too would pay a heavy price for challenging American global hegemony.

So it seems that Taiwan could offer a neutrality in exchange for Chinese protection, both countries living under a common roof ... "one roof, two apartments" ... more a treaty than a federal solution or some supra-national body like the EU or ASEAN.... perhaps Taiwan's joining ASEAN (which incidentally organised a conference attended by 27 countries following Nancy Pelosi's mad and irrational visit last year) could start the ball rolling.

When trying to imagine how China and Taiwan could feel about each other, this video about a common enemy and shared experience, is useful

https://youtu.be/NQ0q0-jBfik?si=VFaYgyfgpBZk5UU_

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DO SOME PEOPLE TALK TOO MUCH?

10 January 2024

https://youtu.be/pDTBAiuxGcM?si=llKXF-s-ei6ySc8H

Does Mercouris talk to much? Are his Youtube videos too long? Why do some people talk so much?

"The first thing to say is", well, he is a lawyer!!!

A lawyer has two complexities to deal with.

One is his client's case. Cases don't get to court unless they are complicated and ambiguous.

And he has the law to manage which is also complexed and nuanced.

And his goal must be to fully explain his client's case and make sure that the judge understands it. 

So yes they can be quite long-winded, with lots of repetition as they navigate the intricate details of the case and its legal framework. 

All in a crisp confident clear voice; but low-key ie unemotional, factual, objective.

But I totally agree, 86 minutes is enough for a really long and deep snooze during the day!!! He'd do better to spend more time in planning and preparation with diverse supporting collaterals, and less in delivery.

Plus he could include his "brief" with plan, as agenda items, and his skeleton arguments (we can see he does what all lawyers do and anyone who has a case to argue: they always prepare skeleton arguments which they then talk through). So plan and skeletons as slides.

And other illustrative media such as film, interviews, graphs... 

But then again, lawyers of a certain age and above do not have much of a grasp of modern IT and PowerPoint and apps, plus he is handicapped by his poor sight.

"Anyway" ...

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WE ARE RULED BY GANGSTERS

30 December 2023

https://www.youtube.com/live/dlKuQ3r3Mwk?si=xSu817r0XOfgdB7L

Exactly, it's not so much that our leadership are incompetent, it's that they are corrupt - it is the practice of war that they love because it's good for business.

But we want freedom and prosperity and we know that comes from peace and productivity and planning.

So how is it that it's the bad people that get to the top? Because the system must be wrong, it isn't delivering. All we get is mass murder, theft, lies and impoverishment. Repeated foreign policy failure, the fear of regional conflagration or World War, the threat of recession or depression, intl pariah status, nothing seems to discourage this band of gangsters : 

"One failure after another, one disaster after another, eight trillions of dollars down the drain".

Not while they are making money ... you can hear the clickety-clack of counting money when they're talking.

As Erdogan says, Netanyahu is worse than Hitler, Israel takes from America to lock up and torture these poor people and our leaders queue to praise them. Netanyahu's dream is of an ethnic cleansing and an apartheid state, based on words written 2,500 years ago that he falsely claims promise a Jewish state and the appearance of god on earth. This is so mad! How can this be?

We thought democracy was the best system of government, but it has failed us and corporatism - rule by corporations, corporate elites, oligarchs - has supplanted rule by the people. We are no better than the autocratic states we criticise. Why aren't these guys chased out of town, asks JS? It's because they own the town, like in some cowboy film.

We need insurrection, to storm Congress and the H o P, take them away in chains to the guillotine !!!

AND EUROPE WILL RISE AGAIN.

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A NEW POLITICAL DYNASTY FOR INDONESIA

1 December 2023

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-constitutional-court-ruling-democracy-political-dynasty-joko-widodo-gibran-rakabuming-raka-3851566

READERS' REACTIONS

Some reader reaction:

"Very interesting article about the Supreme Court's reversal of the under 40 ruling."

 

"It is a bit worrying when you see relatives bending the rule of law."

ANALYSIS

The court ruling didn't lower the min. age requirement, which is still 40, but it did open up opportunities for younger people who have executive governance experience. I can't see much wrong with that, on the face of it, except to say this could have been a change initiated and approved in Parliament rather than in the Supreme Court.

It is also worth pointing out that the youngest prime minister in the UK was William Pitt the Younger and he took over at the age of 23 and the youngest president in the world has ever seen was Emmanuel macron who came to power at the age of 39.

As to powerful dynasties let's not forget the Kennedy clan! And surely tinkering with the minimum age requirement or other qualifications is not the way to prevent or encourage a Dynasty. Dynasties are organised to improve their own lot, but aren't all politicians like that and shouldn't there be anti-corruption legislation and its effective implementation to deal with that ? I mean, if you fear dynasties then look elsewhere for a means to control them.

CONCLUSION

The minimum age requirement to be president of Indonesia is about finding candidates with sufficient experience and wisdom. Well, if people under 40 have proven wisdom and experience then why not let them run? If you stop these younger people from running, then you're excluding potentially great leaders like our William Pitt the Younger!

And finally, if the people don't like the idea of a dynasty then it is the third largest democracy in the world and they've only got to say "Jokowi you're joking!".

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COLUCHE FOR PRESIDENT

15 December 2023

Coluche was one of those rare people where a single name is enough. He was one of the world's greatest comedians but unlike Billy Connolly his language couldn't translate outside his country of origin.

In 1980, he decided to run for president of France and he had many original ideas on his program: there would be no work for anyone, there would be no school for the children, all drugs would be legalised and money abolished.

In 1980 there was no internet and Snail mail was the only way to communicate in writing so kaluche wanted all the stamps issued to have either a picture of a fanny or an asshole, so that when lick the stamp ...

He was a complete outsider and his appeal was to all the people who had no voice so I suppose today, you'd call him a populist and the nearest you get today is Trump, although I think Trump is rather more vulgar.

Notice to the population

 COLUCHE CANDIDATE

 I call the lazy, the filthy, the drug addicts, the alcoholics, the fags, the women, the parasites, the young, the old, the artists, the jailbirds, the dykes, the apprentices, the blacks, the pedestrians, the Arabs, the French , the long-haired, the crazy, the transvestites, the former communists, the convinced abstainers, all those who do not count for politicians to vote for me, to register in their town hall and to spread the news.

 ALL TOGETHER TO FUCK THEIR ASS  WITH

 Coluche

 The only candidate who has no reason to lie.

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COMMUNICATION SKILLS FOR POLITICIANS - THE EXAMPLE OF PUTIN

15 December 2023

However much people here in The West hate Putin, the president of the Russian Federation, some of it must surely be to do with his success in bringing Russia back from the dead these last 20 years.

Today, let's take a look at how he does it - and why. 

(If you've read the previous piece on livingintheair.org on basic communication skills that will be a help in understanding the technical side of Putin's communication skills.)

Why does he do it?

Apart from all the usual vision, planning and execution stuff (subject of earlier articles on livingintheair.org), he takes a great deal of trouble to communicate with his people and create a sense of unity, belonging and optimism. Opinion polls give him 80% - that's amazing if true. 

He will first of all set the goals or objectives of his communication. Then he will identify his audience. With objectives and sensibilities of his audience in mind, he will now assemble the winning arguments.

First, the politician seeks the support of the people he fears the most: his own people, those who have the power to unseat him.

Second, the successful politician wants to master the international environment. The politician inhabits an anarchic system, ie a system of International Relations (IR) where there is no recourse to a higher authority. If you combine being on your own, with the uncertainty that comes from not knowing what is in the mind of your neighbours, then you can understand that Security (secure from invasion, secure in your sovereignty) is the number one concern. Security comes mainly from diplomatic and military means, of which the most important are the communication skills of the Diplomat.

How does he do it?

Putin has these regular press conferences where he talks to the nation. He uses the opportunity of these progress reports to the people, his audience, to run through the history of Russia and the character of its people.

This is what we so sorely miss in the West. Our leaders seem unwilling to do other present current tactics.

Blank out the past to start again

Regular reviews of progress are something that is highly desirable, but we cannot do in the West because we no longer have a single identity or character, we don't have a unifying culture. Additionally, we are ashamed of, and seem to be forever trying to rub out or forget, our history and our civilisation. 

The self-doubt of The West

What is wrong with our history or civilisation? What did the West do that it should reproach itself? How has the West fared, from a Security and Moral perspective,compared with other historic civilisations?

It seems to me that the elite is forever trying to weaken or distract its greatest threat - its own people - away from important matters like public finance, economics, class and abuse of power. It is almost as if the governing elite is trying to make "Tabula Rasa" of the past, a "blank slate" on which it can paint and engineer a rootless, passive and obedient slave class.

It's a pretty barren and frightening landscape that western leaders have created for their peoples. Compare this with the rising prosperity and optimism that Putin generates by his communications and actions.

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COMMUNICATION SKILLS 101

15 December 2023

This is a technical piece on basic communication skills, with an emphasis on skills needed for success in the office.

First, let's take a look at key communication skills. Once we have set this frame, let's look more closely at a responsibility assignment matrix (RAM) for determining roles within a project team, your project teams.

Effective communication skills 

Effective communication skills are crucial for success in the office, if you want to enhance your ability to work collaboratively, minimise misunderstandings, contribute to a positive and productive work environment and ... get a pay rise and promotion.

Key skills include:

1. Clear Verbal Communication

   - Expressing ideas clearly and concisely.

   - Using the right tone, emphasis and language for each situation.

2. Active Listening

   - Paying attention to others.

   - Responding thoughtfully to demonstrate understanding.

3. Written Communication

   - Writing clear and coherent emails, reports, and documentation.

   - Ensuring proper grammar, spelling, and formatting - one idea per paragraph only & multiple paragraphs broken by white space for readability.

4. Non-Verbal Communication

   - Being aware of body language and facial expressions. (Funny remark it is more difficult to read the expressions of People who use botox or filler and thus difficult for you to respond.)

   - Projecting confidence and professionalism, in manner and appearance.

5. **Emotional Intelligence:**

   - Understanding and managing one's emotions.

   - Recognising and empathising with others' emotions.

   -  Try Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP),

a somewhat manipulative technique, particularly the use of "mirroring", all copying the body language of the other, for developing a rapport with people.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuro-linguistic_programming?wprov=sfla1

6. Adaptability

   - Adjusting communication style based on the audience.

   - Being open to feedback and willing to modify approaches.

7. Clarity and Conciseness

   - Conveying messages in a straightforward manner.

   - Avoiding unnecessary jargon or complexity, or introducing such language before using.

8. Conflict Resolution

   - Addressing conflicts calmly, unemotionally and constructively.

   - Seeking solutions that benefit all parties involved.

9. Collaboration

   - Fostering open communication within teams.

   - Encouraging the exchange of ideas and feedback.

  - Getting everyone on board.

10. Networking

    - Building and maintaining professional relationships.

    - Communicating effectively with colleagues, bosses and clients.

Some intermediate remarks

Please expand acronyms on first use in a message, or have a glossary

Use punctuation to improve readability

Check spelling, check structure before hitting send

Don't assume readers are clairvoyant, take time to contruct / edit before send, to be sure you are understood first time ( people will often be reluctant to ask for clarification so you should make sure they don't need to).

Be sure to understand the purpose of any message you send or receive and be sure to communicate clearly. Especially if you are talking, speak clearly and strongly, be structured, be concise !!!

Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM)

Communication skills are your absolute number one skill, both written and oral, listening and reading (rapid and summarising), (the four skills). If you are not confident that you are communicating efficiently and effectively, then take a communication skills course - this could be the most important thing you do in 2024.

Consult. Communicate before action with those who you want to motivate and involve in the action.

Inform. Inform those who must change as a result of an action in preparation for the happy implemention.

The RASCI

This is a typical version of a esponsibility assignment matrix (RAM). The people on your project RAM are the people with whom you exchange messages, it is about their roles...and yours: 

R - Responsible - the person who makes the change

A - Accountable - the person who gets the pay rise or the kick in the pants if it all goes right or wrong, probably your boss, your customer, your client, who agrees your plan and makes resources available

S - Support - those whom you can rely on for help getting the change made, like accountants or lawyers or IT or consultants

C - Consult - The people you talk to, to get information for your analysis and action plan

I - Inform - the people downstream who will have to operate the change on a regular basis, those who need to know

RASCI is your basic frame 101 for working in any team if you want to get things done. These are the roles people have and with whom you communicate.

Good to be clear in your head on your role and the role of the other people, before you do anything, before you start communicating.

RASCI - responsible accountable support consult inform.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_assignment_matrix

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THE TRIUMPH OF REASON OVER EMOTION

14 December 2923

I have always taken a "realistic" position on IR, but this growing world anger, and anger at home, the emotions or passions that drive everything, emotions esp anger seem more and more to be overriding reason and common sense.

Look at Gaza. Any analysis would say that Hamas has performed an almost miraculous feat in getting this decades-old conflict back at the top of the world's priorities, and that there is little to be gained from Israel's military intervention.

Nonetheless, Israel charges back in, hammer and tanks, because the people demand revenge and demand their government restore dueish superiority. (They demand of Netanyahu, even though it is his fiasco.)

You can kill the Hamas leadership, but you can't stop this movement which has the backing of the Palestinian people (about half theaccording, accordingto polls) - the leadership and the arms will only return.

So what's the point? Is it revenge? Or is it dissuasion - teach those civilians not to support an organisation dedicated to the destruction of Israel? Or is it driven by the Zionist Ideological vision of ethnic cleansing to create a greater Israel?

Seems to me it's purely emotional, the desire for revenge and to re-establish fear and respect of Israel in the neighborhood.

But there's no plan for "the day after". Gaza has been flattened - will the people of Gaza file out into the Sinai? 40 years in the desert stuff?

Or will something "unexpected" happen? Ok, the Arab elites would be happy to see the brutal destruction of Hamas, which is Muslim street Brotherhood that threatens Wahhabi power; but what about a changing mood in American and European public opinion, especially the young like us, who take sensible, if radical, positions; or the Evangelical Christians who apparently want all Jews to collect in Israel and wait for the Messiah? You see how mad and magical the emotions get.

And Ukraine was much the same story - the emotions seemed to be in the driving seat, the West took what it considers a moral position and for a long time that position was buoyed by the story around the initial defeat of the Russians, by the emergence of plucky Zelinsky on the world stage, we all remember his crowd thumping speeches, and by the heroic resistance of the courageous Ukrainian people. 

No one seemed to notice that actually Ukraine had made itself a most powerful enemy ("poked the bear in the eye with a sharp stick") and that the West's reserves were depleted, its army a paper tiger etc.

Some of us saw all that ... with a spot of help from Mearsheimer and Mercurios and the rest, because we took a realistic point of view, analysed the facts and were not influenced by public opinion or government propaganda. That is the starting point: analyst and consultant. In other words, we present an analysis and the customer, or the politicians, then frame it to their liking, give it Vision and Direction.

Surely Boris' visit to Ukraine last year was the triumph of hope and emotion over realism and reason. Far as I remember, the Western militaries were telling the politicians the score, but the politicians went ahead anyway and now there are half a million dead, Ukraine is flattened, the world economy split in two, debt piled up even higher and decline sped up. Thank you neocons and Boris 

(Brexit, Covid, Ukraine - what a total disaster Boris was, but he drew the crowds - shows how difficult it is to pursue realistic negotiations when you have a baying crowd in front of you, stoked up by neocon insecurities and harangued by the msm!).

Anyway to finish this piece on "The Triumph of Hope over Despair", or emotions over reason, we have reached actually the opposite: now reason has been proven right and it's "The Triumph of Despair over Hope" after half a million deaths in Ukraine, the utter failure of the offensive and a very cold winter ahead with the energy supplies knocked out. All of which is likely to finish off the people of Kiev. Similar script for Tel Aviv.

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GREAT POWER POLITICS

9 December 2023

https://youtu.be/FgHAEBMfHK8?si=MhKMlpCjRPV9cn4s

The Tragedy of Power Politics. 

This skillful interview contains many fresh insights from Professor John J. Mearsheimer.

The positive side of Nationalism can hold together a multicultural Liberal Society.

Aswhere a Liberal believes that a program of economic engagement will bring other states on board and into the fold of democratic countries, a Realist believes that in the absence of any hierarchy and in the uncertainty concerning your neighbours' intentions, Great Powers will be always vying with each other for dominance and control, just to ensure their survival.

In the 1990s when Russia was at its weakest, America chose containment rather than assistance. America could have helped Russia integrate into a new security architecture.

The unipolar moment lasted rather more than a moment, from 1991 to 2017, so younger people [born after 1972] today have no experience of the Cold War (1947 - 1991) and no one has experience of a multi-polar world (America, China, Russia, post 2017).

The Ukraine War started back in the 1990s when America was unchallenged and free to do as it pleased and attempt to convert the world to democracy and contain "the threat" from Russia. The Ukraine war is a vestige of the Cold War and a policy of NATO enlargement eastwards.

Today the West is in two cold wars, plus (not talked about here), the risk of The Middle East becoming the battleground for some very serious proxy wars.

The correct strategy would have been to work with Russia to knock out China, but this is a strategy for a multi-polar world and yet the war with Russia is a result of a unipolar world and unipolar thinking.

War between the three Great Powers is more likely in the South or East China Seas, or Taiwan, than in Central Europe, because the scale of the potential horror in Central Europe is unimaginably greater. The only hope of avoiding direct confrontation between the Great Powers is the threat that it may go nuclear.

The American foreign policy establishment, aka The Blob, calls the shots irrespective of the party in power on The Hill or the president in The White House. As proof, both Trump and Biden did a volte-face, faced with the limitations of their power vis-a-vis The Blob. [This is why many hark back to JFK's famous and powerful peace speech in June 1963 and believe that he was assassinated by The Blob.] Trump armed Ukraine. Biden went back on his promise of engagement. Next time will be no different. The reason - if you are a structuralist like Mearsheimer is that we are now in a multipolar world.

Can balance-of-power Realism work in a multipolar world to prevent war? There will be crises, there may be war, war will be hard to shut down once started, and it is easier to fight in Asia than Central Europe, but perhaps the threat of nuclear will deter....

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STRATEGY IN ACTION

8 December 2023

SUMMARY

This is an old block of flats that is no longer 

up to today's living standards. This is seriously affecting capital and rental values. One way to restore vale is to upgrade the outside and the public areas and facilities, but this would require more money than many of the owners are prepared to put in.

Therefore the problem is how to convince these owners to join and fund a rehab program.

First we need some data : we need to know by how much the building is undervalued and whether the proposed redesign and rehab could pay for itself.

If the case is proven but the proposal won't be passed at the Residents Association, a strategy is needed to split the no vote. Those decidedly for or against can be put to one side, in order to focus on the group of undecideds. An issue which would split this group can be created. Thus a majority in favour of the proposal can be created. 

It is also necessary to bring on board those who do not have the means to pay for the work.

For example, a subsidised loan could be offered, the cost of the subsidy could be added back to project financing costs and shared.

Then a campaign could be organised to canvas support with the waiverers, which if successful will mean the work could go ahead.

PROBLEMS / REQUIREMENTS

There is a problem, because although this block of 120 apartments is old, 30 years old, it is nonetheless in one of the best areas of the city, near to a couple of embassies; the rooms are large by modern-day standards; this is a good location near protected forest, fresh air off the nearby river; opposite a pretty place of worship with a recent by-law requiring any new-build be low-rise; and yet entertainment too a short walk away, being central to the principal gate to this walled city; giving a "rus-in-urbe" feel; and what's more, despite complaints of noise from ongoing apartment modernisations, it is a relatively quiet block with a peaceful mixed population 50-50 local and foreign; service and land charges are low; the property is well run along the "rule of 3Es" - economy, efficiency, effectiveness.

So you would think an attractive premium investment.

But no! The problem is that the per-square-foot (PSF) retail market value, buy or rent, is about half or perhaps 2/3 of the cost PSF in more recent post-2010 blocks. This block cannot compete with modern living standards, it seems.

And yet for these recent blocks, the apartments are smaller; the insulation is less; locations are less favourable, sometimes out of town; charges are certainly higher for a similar standing.

So what can be done about this? 

Evidently the solution is to upgrade the quality of the built environment ie a rehab project, starting with external dec.s, followed by upgrades to the lobby and other public areas; and publicise this improvement to attract warranted attention, increase demand; and obtain more inward investment and up property values and returns.

GOAL

That is the goal then : to raise capital and rental values, from a program of building upgrade, to be publicised on social media. Noting that any proposal for change must be approved by the well-run Residents Association, aka "The Committee".

RISK

The difficulty getting this through the committee is that many of the membership and the committee itself are viscerally opposed to any capital expenditure projects beyond schedules of preventive maintenance and the basic minimum necessary to meet legal requirements.

How to convert a majority against change into a majority in favour of change?

STRATEGY

To get this public areas rehab project through the committee, one way could be to

1. get a list of all owners and tenants and with the Property Manager if available, evaluate the likely attitude of each person, splitting the list into three groups :

- those who would support the project

 - those who would certainly oppose 

- and then a middle group of doubters / undecideds

Focus on the undecideds. (We have little time, there is no point in spending time and stirring up feelings on those already strongly committed.)

2. Find an issue which would split the doubters into those for the proposal and those against.

3. Thus, if you could persuade the committee to consult owners, and you have successfully split the doubters, then you would stand a good chance of your proposal being approved.

What issue could split the undecideds? Who is this group?

CAMPAIGN PLAN

A possible way forward to discuss with fellow activists:

If you know the PSF cost of the rehab, and could value PSF the post-project, then you have a cost-benefit analysis and you know the PSF cost that can be charged back to owners, by majority agreement.

This CBA and chargeback should sell the proposal. (For info, owners and tenants have equal representaion on the Cttee.)

But what if it doesn't? What if the committee doesn't approve the expenditure? What if some owners refuse to pay their share? Here are the sticking points.

A solution might be to offer a subsidy on a loan the Committe can organise, that some owners might need if they are to be convinced them. But offer only to people who've been here for a minimum five years, or who have an income below a certain threshold, or whatever criteria will create a division.

And simply include the cost of this subsidy back in the project financing costs.

Now you can canvas the undecideds, offering them a helpful low-cost subsidy (at zero capex) that will tilt the vote at a Special AGM.

IMPLEMENTATION

to be continued ...

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DESPAIR AT THE FUTURE OF THE WEST

4 December 2023

Just to watch our foolish leaderships throw away what were once good hands. Fills me with despair. 

What can we do with our elites except remove them, how to do that? You judge a tree by its fruits. I don't want their media, their propaganda - I pay for and judge the meal in a restaurant, not the chef!

And if we don't, if we can't get them out of office? What I think about is the real value of my savings - whether inflation and currency collapse, or deflation and stagnation, my savings accumulated over my working life are worth less and less.

The only bright spots have been beating the index (so what? It's real returns that count), and gold (up 6% this year). Plus living in a decent, stable, affordable society, albeit as an outsider.

But the downside is continued destruction of my purchasing power, my culture and my sons' community where they live, drifting into govt.s of control, plus other strengthening foreign centres of power are going to take advantage of Europe and the USA more and more.

UPDATE 5 DECEMBER

It is not you and I that are going to change the world, we've had our chance.

Now it is the turn of the milleniums and gen Z.

But what will they do? Re-invent the past? Throw it over? 

Or perhaps they think they've done it with this Woke nonsense. So we will have another generation to wait?

As those the initiative is with the West! The Russians are rolling in while we make our plans. The Chinese have caught us all up in their web of Belts and Roads. The Americans won't be coming to the rescue any time soon, they've given their horses to the gypsies!

NATO is a paper tiger, Europe is like the Holy Roman Empire before Napoleon invaded, all chocolate box armies and parliaments of stuffed shirts.

You and I saw through this parody years ago! 2008 was it!?

UPDATE 6 DECEMBER

I can confirm from the macro-economics side of my life that companies making alcoholic drinks see their sales rise in times of depression, doubtless more drug abuse too, food abuse, 

declines in the mental and physical health of the people.

So we can expect higher suicide rates too. 

As a result of "the decline of the West". Indeed, we see all around us the decline of western peoples' living standards and the health of the nations.

In fact, a bit of reflection on the ticker-tape of history, the rise and fall of great empires, we see we are in actual historical fact witnessing the usual doom loop. 

Elites are manipulating governments to enrich themselves, 

they are making war on foreign elites thinking they can expand their power and wealth by pillaging their neighbours,

and through standard soothsayer media they spread propaganda at home and abroad to cover this up and keep the populus on board.

The decline is not just material, it's also in our values, which includes our faith in our system of government, ie in democracy itself. This is what happens, and it is entirely predictable, it is what links are past and our present to our future.

“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

We need to be far more doubting of govt news channels, far more discriminating of who we listen to, and more trusting of our own judgements. The aren't quick fixes to these kind of problems and we should not be brow-beaten by governments into believing that there are - it takes a 20 year long haul to effect profound radical change after which we can expect stability and peace, at least for a long while, during which education and new knowledge & understanding develops, and material wealth increases starting from the treasure taken by the New Empire from the Old.

                           This is the circle of history.

It takes tough times for the hero promising  redemption to emerge. But to get into this sorry state it requires the weak man or men or gov.ts - this is the prerequisite of the strong man, who is the hero. Myths - many cycles of history condensed into a story - going back to the Greeks and doubtless before tell us this story. The hero starts out weak as he has not yet developed his powers. Then through a series of difficult trials with his adversaries he develops strength and skills. He then uses these to overhaul the system and bring peace and prosperity to his people.

Meaning that from all this Mess and Injustice we can expect populist leaders to step forward, wanting to force through tough ideological cleanup programmes of action on root causes. Only outsiders can clean up this mess, the power elite will never voluntarily let go. Outsiders from within or without.

How will these new leaders seize power? They will do it in the usual way: by inciting the populus - mainly younger people who are uninvested and despairing and think they are bullet-proof - to take to the streets.

We can see that the elite won't give up power and wealth, it is the height of naivety to imagine that radical reform can be voted through the Ballot Box, so what else can the people do? 

It is only utopian reform or rebirth that can deal with the final results of greed. Greed that is satisfied in the fiscal process. The people stay happy with welfare and propaganda, while the elite purloin the wealth of the country through corrupt and mediocre politicians. But eventually, it comes to a point where there's so much mess and putrification that it needs radical change. This change can be brought about from within or from without. 

Which is better - radical overhaul from within, or radical overhaul from without? The former is revolution. The latter is war or migration.

"Without" meaning on account of internal weakness, a country gets taken over and becomes part of someone else's empire, a rising empire. 

That's history, it is a circle with knowledge and technology as the only straight lines of progress. 

Knowledge from which our elites understand sweet nothing. 

History from which our elites understand sweet nothing.

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