LIVE IN THE PRESENT

27 August 2023

Good evening.

Do you think we can lose sight of the present? I mean, it is where we live, right? But we can forget that? Instead of living in the present, we can think ourself into the past .... or into the future. This is how worry, stress or anxiety can take over from what should be the fun and games of life in the present moment. 

Instead of enjoying the present - where we might forget ourself with good friends, or enjoy some education program or healthcare or entertainment or a museum or nature and the environment, instead we are pre-occupied with matters seemingly linked to our survival in some way, the survival of our family, we are fearful of things that could have gone wrong or might still do so, we see threats around us. But do we imagine or exaggerate them? Should we get some perspective on these thoughts by putting a little distance between us and them. OK they can circle in our mind but we can relegate them to an outer ring and keep an eye on them out there.

So anyway, if that's true, that these are misplaced or exaggerated fears, you can see straight away that the first thing to do is to confront these fears, look them in the face and they will probably turn out to be not as bad as you thought, and they may well vaporise in the heat of the midday sun of your Clint Eastwood gaze!

It is true that this is not a simple situation for someone to find themself in, it's quite a complicated situation in which we are an unwilling participant. So how can we free our self, get out of this, push to an outer ring and get back into living a fun life in the present?

"Stuck in the past", the problem is we keep turning the same episodes from the past over in our minds. A way out is by drawing lessons learned, from when things have gone wrong as well as when they have gone right, wrapping up the episode conclusively, committing our conclusions to paper, and thus it is possible to draw a line on the past with a decision not to revuew that episode any further.

And "stuck in the future", we tergivise and are unsure or anxious about how things will turn out. The is a way out. It is to complete the plans you have made, sign them off, and then do, rather than leaving things hovering up in the air indecisively. Of course there are risks to any change, things can go wrong, but if the plan includes actions to mitigate any risks that have been identified, you have to press ahead and deal with unforeseens "on the fly" as they might arise.

And overall, it means just getting together some kind of a realistic "day in the life of" regular schedule, where your time is allocated to enjoyment of life in the present, along the lines mentioned in para 1 above, as well as getting all the other things "done and dusted" from the medium and long term. So it is your priorities that dominate, with short term tasks in your daily schedule that decline from the medium and long term. ... ideally!

Thinking of a classic in-tray, the idea is to do what is necessary to take "the file" out of the IN and PENDING trays, do the job, and put into the OUT tray, for filing away. 

This can happen because the issues are resolved conclusively. Worth noting that mentally too, it sometimes takes a good night's sleep for the brain to go through the events of the day and classify them. So that you wake up in the morning feeling fresh, with energy and new ideas, you know how you feel about things, what is important. This is because the matters have been resolved in yiur head, now you know what to do, you have stable emotions, some things are filed away and the case closed and  forgotten about. 

Of course, you want a bit of peace of mind in your life and this comes from balancing all the demands made on you, against your own capacity to supply that demand. This means saying "no" to a lot of people and so you have to be a pretty resolute and tough-minded character to be prepared to go around disappointing and refusing a lot of people who might be important in your life, however diplomatic the ways you find for doing this, but hey, who's more important: you and your family or them?

There are four things, or objectives if you prefer, around which we tend to orient our life. 

One is "success", success in our endeavours. These endevours are linked to survival and education and work and meeting our material needs, a little like Maslow's Hierarchy.

The second one is a rather nebulous idea of "Happiness and Health", which is about enjoyment of our life.

Thirdly we spend time building out a network which provides us with the contacts for material and emotional support, so for the first two.

Lastly, there is this thing we think about, especially as time goes by, which is our "legacy". This means thinking about our family and the mark that we will leave behind after we leave, what we would like to be remembered for.... well that's hopefully very very far into the future.

Key is to talk about this with a calm person ... resolving these kind of things is what everyone goes through and it's quite normal and certainly look around and we'll see that everyone faces these problems and works them out, eventually sometimes it takes decades to work out, sometimes we can get to a stable point more quickly if we have a bit of help: trusted friend, guru, counsellor, mentor...but it does take work, these things don't just go away on their own with the passage of time, if we are not in charge they can run us ragged, we need to actively manage.

Regular "how's your week been?" type meetings can help, not to talk in circles around and around the same things, but to make progress and wrap things up and make a decision and move forward, move on too, and generally enjoy your life.

So to repeat and sum up. The question is about avoiding being stuck in the past or the future, where worry, stress and anxiety lies, or can lie.

Well the past, we can draw lessons from it for the future, but we can't really rewrite it, ok "re-interpret" yes, but just draw a line under it. Rather than having regrets, and turning past events over and over in our minds, we resolve the episode once and for all.

Does this mean we must have only future thinking, where we can pin those Lessons Learned? 

So as to the "stuck in the future", the idea of a Schedule is really good because it contains our plans for the future. It's in our calendar, on our spreadsheet, out on a piece of paper, it's validated, we are committed; it's not in our head so we are not thinking or worrying about it anymore, we just "do".

And this Schedule is in fact the list of decisions that we've taken. Well, once we've taken a decision, we don't question it anymore, you don't worry about it, all we do is DO - we just execute, just do it.

And so, the most important thing is what's called "The Execution Premium" - the extra value we get from the good execution of our idea ... in other words, start with ideas, make a reasonable and balanced work/life plan, then stop thinking and just do, at the end note down lessons both good and bad, for use when making the next plan - this is a good way to avoid worry.

As to attitude, confront our fears, be confident, it may suit to advance incrementally and methodically, live in the present as above and have a fun time, full of humour.

BIBLIO

1. http://www.livingintheair.org/2023/08/live-in-present.html

2. https://youtu.be/l_bJzyXGoFo?si=Gl5w6i4pUQLh_Giz

3. https://youtu.be/FpHxugJWLKs?si=gF6DJHtGRK5zQJb2

4. https://youtu.be/KYJdekjiAog

5. Here's an "inspiring" poem:

Felix Dennis's poem "How to Get Rich", not to be confused with the book of the same name which is also good. It presents a quite different approach to life.

This guy Dr. Martin Rossman is good:

https://youtu.be/FOQKMiD5QJI

And here in a few words is the way he teaches:

https://thehealingmind.org/blogs/the-healing-mind-audio-and-video-sessions/basic-steps-to-deal-with-anxiety-attack

Here's an "inspiring" poem:

Felix Dennis's poem "How to Get Rich", not to be confused with the book of the same name which is also good. It presents a quite different approach to life.

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GIVE US THE FACTS

25 August 2023

Can the MSM tell us the truth about anything  or is it simply the official voice of government ?

Stop telling the public stories, "narratives", just give us the facts and let us form our own opinion. We don't need the MSM to tell us what to think. If a broadsheet has an opinion that they want to broadcast, then by all means do so, but save it for the editorial pages - that's what they are there for.

All subscribers are interested in and paying for is "the news". The facts, the fundamentals, the truth - the facts are the basis on which liberal democracy works.

We don't want newssheets to tell us what to think, we want them to tell us what's going on.

For example, an article is written on training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16, but there's rather more to it than that of course. The choice of airport, the lengthening of runways, all of the associated infrastructure and the supply chain for maintenance and repairs.

In particular, if there are any take-off and landing strips left in Ukraine, which ones will the F-16 be using or will they be flying out of Romania or Poland - in other words are we heading to World War 3?

Plus, what about the numbers? Russia currently has over a thousand equivalent or superior fighter jets and those numbers are increasing. The F-16 is a generation four I am told, whereas the new models coming out of Russian factories are fifth generation.

And a final point worth thinking about is that it's not obvious the Russians would agree to a frozen conflict, nor indeed would Europe ( there are elections of public officials within this time scale representatives who represent us). Strikes me that within the timescale of this F-16 program, the war will be over with Russia in charge, the Russians will have reached the borders of Poland and there will be nothing left of Ukraine.

So this is the new iteration of the old American plan to defeat Russia in Ukraine and with a new government in the Kremlin, bring Russia into the Western sphere for the showdown with China that America expects.

And it's all the MSM tells us about. The plan to escalate with F-16 but without the downside risks.

But what if this plan is based or delusions or simply-put, doesn't work? What if Russia passes further into the Eurasian camp? What if the western public object to this war? What if there will be no showdown with China because China doesn't play ball as it is not looking for military victory, it is looking for commercial opportunity? So lot's of What-ifs that I'd like to know more about.

And most basic and general point of all for the MSM: give us the facts and let us make up our own mind! At the moment the MSM are just giving us the "case for the prosecution", but there is also the "case for the defense" that we would like to hear.

"But what if it doesn't work?"

The neocons have been in charge for at least the last 30 years ... have any of their foreign policy adventures worked out successfully? Why should this one be any different?

So really lots of doubts about America's claims and plans and lots of sadness for the Ukrainian people and European taxpayers.

Lots of hope too that Europe can rise again (even though it may take a generational change for us to get rid of our mediocre leadership).

The MSM needs to present these truths and give us a balanced presentation for us to make up our own minds and return the feedback to our representatives. That is the safeguard of the liberal democracy.

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BRICS CURRENCY

21 August 2023

Worth defining a few terms.

1. Common currency. I gather because alliance means enemy and China wants money not military there may be bloc(s) and banks, but not inter-operable military stuff. Believe it when I see it.

2. Also, not see this as "closing the parenthesis" on Western liberal democracy and human rights. No, we would like these good things back please. But recognise that there are other, what you might characterise as "top down" ways of organising a society ... eg traditionalist:

https://youtu.be/Fzj2Odt6HRo

3. The BRICS+ is the original famous five, plus there are I gather 24 applicants and 50 countries will be in attendance at the conference 22-24 Aug 2023, so anyway  BRICS+ means the admitted membership.

4. Will there be a BRICS+ common currency? 

The USDollar likely has another 10, 20 years left in it as reserve currency. The idea is that each member should fix a parity with gold by weight - so by weight not by price. Then the dollar value of what an ounce of gold would buy in that currency will vary on the day. As a concept and practise, this takes quite a bit of mental gymnastics to figure out what it means.... just picture yourself as an Asian manufacturer looking to buy propylene polymers off Saudi Arabia. You can pay in yen into the Asia Development Bank and the bank will pay Saudi Arabia in dinars, with the conversion rate of USD to a unit of gold being the common factor. Com-pli-ca-ted.

5. Categories of governance. Not think in terms of kleptocracies V rule-of-law countries, after all the greatest fraud ever perpetuated on this planet was the GFC great financial crisis;

and what is the idea behind sanctions if it isn't for the American / EU gov.ts to illegally use their power to confiscate property that is not their own, for political purposes.

Also not useful to split the world by autocracy / democracy because for example Brazil and India are both democracies, while Gore and Trump can complain the election was stolen.

Nor Colonial Powers vs ex-Colonised

6. Best to depoliticise and desensitise and try to see the world in all its objective detail as it is in reality and context, if that is at all possible, at least before exercising our personal or groupthink prejudices and preferences.

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WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE UK ECONOMY - PT 3

20 August 2023

Most people reading this question would give a financial kind of answer rather than others who think the problem is down to a mediocre political leadership.

And most people would say that the UK's problems come from its being a declining great power that doesn't really recognise this reality of decline, and doesn't see that the problems it has are a result of its past successes and a country that generally suffers from too much nostalgia ie living on its past.

DEMOCRACY

People have doubts over the state of democracy in the UK, but we should remember that the elite did eventually recognise the Brexit vote in some way and when there was a problem last year in the LDI market, the prime minister and chancellor were given the heave-ho. 

So perhaps we have fewer problems than in America, where a complete outsider got to run the White House and when he couldn't run it anymore, tried to ransack it. And now the incumbent president has instructed his Department of Justice to find all kinds of charges to imprison his political opponent. 

In the UK, there doesn't seem to be the same level of abuse of the Constitution, nor the same growing civil unrest as there is in the States.

ECONOMIC FACTORS

To know what's wrong with the UK, take a look at long run productivity, growth, investment, equality of income, distribution of wealth and income (smaller countries do better incidentally, the UK is big), regional inequality (London & SE is very wealthy, the rest of the country is poor) all of which show a poor UK performance relative to the EU and US.  

INVESTMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY

Investment and productivity are the problems that Teresa May and Liz Truss, former British prime ministers, tried to address and got booted out for their trouble (May for Brexit too). Investment should be seen as key to the UK's problems and there has been a recent change letting pension schemes invest more broadly in the markets than just government bonds .

TAX

Actually the UK is quite a low tax country and this is reflected in the poor services compared with say France which is the most highly taxed in the world I think....so some have left!

GFC, BREXIT, COVID, WAR

The financial crisis damaged the UK economy more than any other major economy because it is so paper-based ie runs on fibancial products rather than real like manufacturing or commodities. And Brexit delivered another hammering, but strikes me this was the result of the elite greed at the GFC. And the UK was the slowest to recover after covid.

Each time and especially after Brexit the pound got a bit weaker. Trade-ways, Brexit also meant that the UK lost exports to the EU as it found itself on the outside of fortress Europe, but on the other hand imported more than it would have done had it not left, as it remained an open economy.

CURRENCY, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

It seems - according to the experts - that between an uncertain currency and an uncertain export market, investment suffered and this, as has been stated, is key to all the problems mentioned above.

IMMIGRATION

There were thousands of people each year quitting the EU and migrating to the UK, but this is rare since Brexit. Brexit had the opposite effect and succeeded in cutting EU immigration. 

But on the other hand between Hong Kong and Ukraine plus the boat people, immigration has absolutely soared from non-EU countries. 

WORK FORCE, STATE WELFARE

This is really important for the future quality of the labour force and for some sectors like agriculture and domestics, hotels and restaurants. I can't work out if this rejuvenates demographically - Peter Zeihan has not addressed this. Anyway, Brexit failed take back control of our borders. Furthermore the pandemic meant that the proportion of working-age people not in work rose quite dramatically, but for the UK this continued even after the pandemic whereas for all other developed economies that proportion returned to trend and continues to fall. 

Seems the British are becoming more and more lazy, I don't know about the US - maybe it's the Anglo-Saxons becoming fed up with their system and leadership, or maybe it's that low taxes mean low health and welfare, poor housing and inadequate education for a hi-tech economy.

RECESSION, REVOLT

Now consider what a recession would mean. It would mean even more decline in real wages and a smaller tax base. Austerity lowers welfare, and however conservative and well-behaved are the British, you'd think that after a time this would create very serious political problems.

PUBLIC DEBT

The UK is a debtor nation and depends on foreigners having confidence in its economy enough to buy its government bonds. I just wonder that if we are a declining former superpower, how much longer that confidence will hold and what is the link to interest rates?

INFLATION ORDER

Plus inflation and recession, higher taxes and austerity, and what effect will this have on public order and stability of governments given rhe UK has had three in the last year?

UK debt is about average for a developed economy, the tax base is below average, the regulatory framework is about average, so it doesn't look like cutting taxes and regulations could be a solution.

EU

Rejoining the EU now that almost 6 out of 10 Brits (up 20pc from the referendum) would be in favour of that could be a boost for exports. But would the EU have rhe UK back, and on what favourable terms?

DEREGULATION FTA CUSTOMS UNION

Just consider...If the UK cannot be a free trade economy with Singapore-type rules because we are already as deregulated as is possible; and if free trade agreements with the rest of the world outside the States are not significant; and a free trade agreement with the States is impossible: then why not rejoin the EU customs union? There wouldn't be the problem of free movement of people, but we would have to align to EU product reg.s and standards on food and manufacturing, which after all ought to make industry more efficient - productivity being the key to regeneration - and no-one in industry would object to that. 

It would I think also solve the Northern Ireland Protocol conundrum, though we'd be right back where we were inrhe controversy over having to accept the ECJ, ie eat humble pie.

INTEREST RATES

Seems inflation and interest rates have hit UK worse than any other G7. 

G7 GLOBAL SOUTH

But the G7 as a whole is failing wrt the Global South.

EM STATUS

These factors make you think that the UK is retrograding to an emerging market status where it's bonds and equity markets drop in value, FDI drops and if Singapore on Thames is the scenario then the regulatory apparatus is weakened as well. 

Our wages, standard of living and industrial economic devt are all on the slide, as we've talked about in other articles here. But by way of context, we should bear in mind that all Western powers are facing a rate of economic decline relative to the emerging Global South.

REJOIN

But getting closer to the EU, albeit at the risk of joining a sinking ship, does offer some hope of a revival in the UK's fortunes. It would help the UK retain its status as a financial centre. 

It might also provide the tax revenue to improve the UK's education and workforce skillset, not just for those at the bottom, but also for the mediocre elite at the top. And more jobs in new areas like technology and IT, AI and cyber, improve workforce competencies. 

Welfare could over time help social and cultural integration, let's call it. 

So perhaps the UK could reverse out of the decline to EM status.

WAR

Ending the war in Europe on terms that recognise a multi-polar world - ie promote values of equality, respect, negotiation -  would undoubtedly help all Western economies and the world's. 

If only we in Europe could have the American Order, with its values, institutions and rules, but without America's bullying neo-colonial ways!

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WHO ARE THE TROLLS?

19 August 2023

Many of those sympathetic to Ukraine's cause writing in the Western MSM, broadsheets, are in fact Ukrainians living abroad, outside their country, to escape the call-up. I have met them.

They are sympathisers with Ukraine's cause, but who have fled the country to dodge the draft - but unlike Vietnam, they are not anti-war protesters. They are likely living on small incomes or the children of Ukraine's oligarch elite.

They are supported by the Ukrainian government, which means mostly Western taxpayers' money. Kiev, Zelensky and his backers, in return, expect sympathisers to write comments and to create and engage in numerous other activities supportive of war.

This is more than speculation, it is supported by statistics from the Immigration Dept.s of many European and third-world refugee destinations. These active cases are people mostly not in employment and whom we would call "trolls".

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21 August

I am coming to understand that some, most maybe, of these bloggers are in fact kids living outside Ukraine or Russia, dodging the draft, scared out of their wits, afraid, angry and many of them are just frozen with fear.

When you read their comments, you realise that they don't really have a lot to say. Their thinking is overwhelmed by these strong emotions, fears of what might happen, worries maybe of what has already happened to them or that they've witnessed.

When I look at the photos of those Ukrainians that were caught by the recruiters and assembled into fighting units, I see faces that are empty of any intelligence or just full of fear.

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