Monday, 24 July 2023

THINGS ARE GETTING HOTTER

24 July 2023

"I am in Doha and getting roasted everyday. Temp was 46C yesterday with govt warning that it could go up to 55C and requesting citizens to avoid exposure to sun between 10 am and 3 pm, avoid keeping gas cylinders outside, avoid gas filling during day time, avoid filling gas full tank etc. First time I see these warnings.

Back home in Kochi it is raining non stop with temp in the 20s."

Yes, climate change is another catastrophe catching up on our past bad behaviour faster than was predicted. We pushed nature into a corner, it came roaring back once with covid, now we really reap the whirlwind with climate change. The world burns while the boys fiddle with their toys in Ukraine. 

How mad is that?

Bali we experienced a week of torrential rain, the water from heaven was falling in chords and sheets. Was it a de-regulated monsoon? Nobody knows, our clocks are still spinning in the hurricane.

Sunday, 23 July 2023

EX COLONIALIST, STILL SUPREMACIST

23 July 2023

I'd suggest we stop mixing up 

  The West with mixed up as The World.

Many Westerners are what's called Western-centric, navel gazers, if you will allow me to draw your attention to something the ego easily misses.

More and more - and thanks to the effects generated by The West on the long-suffering

  Global South 

(what after decolonisation in the 60s may be 70s was called 

  The Third World

), we live increasingly in a 

   The West v. The Rest 

world, it's called 

   Multi-polar 

and America doesn't like it, not one little bit.

Many complain, wrongly, about our colonial past, but we wouldn't want them to complain about our 

   Supremacist 

Present.

====

My own feeling having followed this situation in Ukraine for a long time now is that the West needs to be more honest: hnest with itself; honest with Ukraine too. It needs intellectual honesty and curiosity to discover the truth.

For example - and this is perhaps the worst - we have pushed Ukraine into a war which has destroyed its land and its people on the pretext that they would win, yet we have not provided sufficient or appropriate weapons or training, and they have lost two armies so far.

And the ultimate sadness of this is that it is not at all evident that the people of Ukraine wanted this war in the first place. Remember that they voted for zelinsky because he presented himself as a man of peace

WHO SAYS PUTIN IS A DICTATOR?

23 July 2023

https://youtu.be/u0A2WxgcsFM

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WESTERN AND CHINESE CULTURES

23 July 2023

What are the major differences between Chinese and Western cultures?

Having lived in Thailand for about 10 years now and in Europe for longer and the Middle East too, I think I’m well qualified to compare Chinese and Western cultures.

The biggest difference I discovered between the two, at a fundamental level, is their priorities. Chinese culture tends to prioritise the result or the end, whereas Western society prioritises the process or the means.

China is Outcome-Driven 

To put it very bluntly, China cares more about money than the West. The ideal outcome that every Chinese person strives for is to have more money. Yes, money is very very central in Chinese culture, which does not have another state religion, because it guarantees security for the family. They have no welfare state to fall back on, or it is rudimentary. Basically, the family takes care of you. And the memories of earlier difficult times are still fresh in the minds of the older generations and transmitted to the young.

This is why it is extremely important in Chinese culture to own your own house, car and iPhone. It shows people that you have wealth, you've arrived, you made it. How you obtain that wealth is not so important or up for discussion, as long as you reach that status or checkmark. Life is brutal and unforgiving. It is a culture where power and money are respected, gets you respect, money and power make influence and are more important than anything else. Not officially violence or military. This is a hard point for softer more genteel minds to understand at a deep level.

The Chinese are also more productive and industrious at the business level. There is less red tape and regulations to deal with, so they get through a lot of work, they produce a lot. Competition is really fierce because everyone is hustling to out-grow and out-compete and out-produce you. The Chinese are incredibly pragmatic and solution-oriented people.

As Chinese culture focuses on results, people tend to be more materially successful in life, though it can seem a purposeless or soulless unadorned existence to a Westerner. They are good at admin, at “obtaining” things like permits, quotas, at meeting deadlines or executing requirements.

The West is System-Driven

While China is an outcome-driven culture, the West is system-driven. The outcome is important, but what’s more important in Western culture is the process and the art, the path you follow and the signs you leave, to reach that outcome.

That is why in the West it’s generally taboo to ask someone how much they earn. What counts is what you do for a living, more than what you earn, at least in polite company.

In business, the Chinese focus on the three Es - economically cutting costs, increasing efficiencies and improving effectiveness. Westerners too of course, we taught them  especially Europeans, will care more about how that product is made and provide valuable experiences with that product.

To illustrate this let’s look at watches. The Quartz watch was perfected by the Japanese, an eastern culture similar to the Chinese. It was revolutionary because it was more precise than mechanical watches. A perfect example of focusing on the outcome. The desired outcome of the watch is to tell the time as accurately as possible at the lowest cost. Japan delivers. However, can a Casio G-Shock watch evoke the same kind of experience and emotion as a Rolex or a Vacheron Constantin can? Probably not. Even though they are less accurate, there’s something special about these mechanical watches in how they are made and the history that a Casio can never compete with.

In western culture feelings or experiences are important while they are suppressed in eastern cultures. Westerners will say things like “how are you feeling today?” “how do you feel about bla bla bla?” etc. This is rare in China. The west has a more literary and artistic output from the west.

Living in Asia I noticed how westerners are just wired differently from East Asians. They will have tons of small talk even at work, talking about the news or some difficulties they encountered on their way to work that day, trivial affairs that are never really the topic of conversation among the Chinese. For the Chinese, they made it to work on time, there’s nothing more to say on the matter.

Since western culture focuses on the how, it is an extremely legalistic or litigious society. In the west, a company must abide by certain regulations or codes. For example, they have to follow specific animal protection laws when making leather products. So generally it’s more costly to get things done in the west. That’s why so many businesses have moved their productions to China where the regulations are lax.

Westerners also tend to be more inquisitive. Science has traditionally been a forte of western culture. And science is really about taking things apart and learning how they work, learning the processes and the mechanics. While westerners are very good at discovering new ideas, the theoretical department, the Chinese are experts at commercializing those ideas and implementing them in a practical setting.

To sum up the global economy today: The west supplies the designs, China implements those designs. Be it iPhones or Shanghai skyscrapers.



Collectivism vs Individualism



The second biggest difference between China and the west is that the former is a collectivist or conformist or traditionalist society, while the latter is an individualistic society.

Confuscionism

China as a whole is much more unified and centralised than the west. The Chinese practice conformity to a truly remarkable extent, largely due to its Confucius past which exemplifies "filial piety" - the arrangement that children obey their parents while parents take care of their children, wives take care of their husbands, and subjects are reverential towards their leaders. We have respect and obedience feeding up and benign care and responsibility feeding down and taking care of our happiness and prosperity. 

To sum up, China practises government for the people and we government of and by the people. In a collective state it is the state that comes first and then the family and the individual whereas we think the opposite way so there is no tradition of democracy as we know it in China.

Conformity

You could be thousands of miles away in a different city in China and still expect to find the same kind of architecture, shops, signage, amenities, etc. There’s both the upside and downside to this. It can be a tad boring to see the same stuff everywhere you go, but it affords a certain level of convenience. This is why I think there is a stronger sense of national identity in China.

Individualism

The West is more individualistic and this is reflected in the political landscape. Europe is a fragmented continent. It is divided into many small countries which are in turn divided into many small regions and towns. And each of these regions and towns has its distinct culture, architecture, customs, and sometimes even languages.

For example, Scotland has its own separate unique identity that is different from England or Europe. And Scotland is a country of only about 5 million people. Many medium-sized cities in China have more people than the entire population of Scotland. The same goes for regions like Wales, Northern Ireland, Cornwall, Andalucia, Catalunya, Bavaria, Veneto, Flanders, etc.

CCP

Is it chopsticks that makes China so very different from the West? I don't think so. We in the West often ask how the people who live in China could put up with a dictatorship and do nothing about it - in my mind, that really is the most important question.

We in the Liberal West think that we are born with natural rights which mean that we can do pretty much as we like provided that we don't step on the rights of other people and if we do and the dispute can't be sorted out then that is why there is a government. 

So we are independent and we are individuals and we only accept to compromise on our rights in order that the government can protect us all. No one is above the rule of law and this includes the rulers and no group has absolute power - power is split between the assembly, composed of Representatives of the people who make the law, the executive who govern and implement change desired by the people, and the judiciary who deal with infringements. The role of the government extends to protecting human rights, assuring freedom of speech and respecting private property.

Compare this with China which had been continuously ruled by and for the Han people since, some say, 2000 BC and it was only in 1911 that the Qing dynasty fell apart and that was because the people realised that they were unable to protect the country from foreigners. 

So for thousands of years the Chinese people had lived under imperial rule and were also dominated by this traditionalist Confucian thinking. Both are hierarchical, top-down ways of thinking and organising.

Humiliation

The Chinese have a deep in their collective psych the notion that Western colonialism and imperialism subjected them to a hundred years of humiliation this started with the opium wars and the Treaty of Nanking in the middle of the 19th century, and ran through to the collapse of the Qing dynasty, after which an attempt was made at creating a republic in 1912 and a constitutional monarchy in 1916. Both failed.

But what China and Chinese people do have is a very nationalist view of China's place in the world and to some extent a resentment at the humiliation they were put through by the West.

CCP

By the time the second world war came, China had no proper system of government to protect itself. But there were two weak parties rivaling each other to take charge the GND and the CCP the Kaoming Tung and the Chinese Communist Party.

 It was almost an accident of history that the CCP came to power in 1949. The CCP was a Marxist-Leninist party and based its philosophy and its organization on Russia's communist set up the CCP believes that the CCP mission is to create a classless egalitarian society, to abolish private property.

In 1949 Mao Tse-tung defeated Chiang Kai Chek and China fell into the hands of the communist party after which foreigners were forced to leave.

https://youtu.be/6StPC4atEVg?si=uTtqRc66HovsfdtV

Thanks for reading






THIS UTTERLY FOOLISH ADVENTURE IN FOREIGN POLICY

23 July 2023

I am waiting for the book to come out, not on the military or political history of the war, but on the role played by our media in keeping us in the dark for so long, the propaganda war of Western gov.ts against their own peoples, the Why? and the How?. Could Noam Chomsky write a farewell jubilatory apocryphal "Manufacture of Consent 2.0"?

You can only fool people for so long. Now, newspapers in the West are starting to publish perspectives on defeat, though it has to be said I am waiting for the blame-articles to start rolling off the presses of this august broadsheet. "Oh, it was the minefields what done for us" will not be enough - why ever did things come to this pretty pass in the first place?

This war looks like it is closing the parenthesis on Western supremacy, Why in the world did we so mismanage and squander our numerous advantages as to get into this mess?

We suffer here and now from the disastrous consequences of these steps to advance Nato and contain Russia, will we seek war with China in the same way? What world are we bequething to our children?

Why has Europe allowed itself to become a mere vassal of America and its violent, uncompromising and opaque foreign policy establishment?

Where was The Voice of the People? What can we do to repair our societies from growing internal conflicts and still remain free?

Good luck everybody sorting out your lives after this utterly foolish adventure in foreign policy.

Saturday, 22 July 2023

THE WEST V. THE REST

22 July 2923

perestroika
pĕr″ĭ-stroi′kə
noun
The restructuring of the Soviet economy and bureaucracy that began in the mid 1980s.
A program of political and economic reform carried out in the Soviet Union in the 1980s under the leadership of Mikhail Gorbachev.
An economic policy adopted in the former Soviet Union; intended to increase automation and labor efficiency but it led eventually to the end of central planning in the Russian economy.

What died out in the 2000s was hopes for co-existence.


First, there was what Churchill called The Iron Curtain, splitting East from West, Western Capitalism from Eastern Communism and The Berlin Wall marked this cleavage, built in 1961.


In the 1960s, 70s, a new cleavage appeared.  It was realised that the East West split was between industrialised countries, but that was the Northern hemisphere. Now we see the South, living from an unequal exchange, their commodities for our finished goods, weak currencies against strong. These countries came out from the decolonisation movement and were called collectively The Third World. I invite you to check out the Dulles brothers for starters.


The important separation was West from East, it was a bipolar world, Washington v. Moscow, the cold war, cold becausethe bomb, many wars with always one protagonist aided by Washington, one by Moscow. Always. 


Then the Soviet Union disappeared, America achieved its Unipolar Moment, human rights, Liberalism, became universal rights, America sought to clone its values across the planet eg in Iraq, and Francis Fukiyama talked of "The End of History" (end of Ideology), because "democracies don't go to war with other", while much of the Third World grew to hate Western - ie American -  domination by its effects on them, while Europe wore lightly its American yoke.


So, the opportunity for peace and collective, collaborative, prosperity offered by Gorbachev, Perestroika, was betrayed, rather than helping Russia America advanced its pawns up to the walls of Moscow (almost) and we know the rest.


So we have quit the unipolar moment that seemed to run out about 2006 and we now are back in a multi-polar world, two protagonists America the China inThe Thucydides Trap, and a much weaker third: superpower Russia....and others, Brazil, India, the Middle East catching up ... and an Africa of 1.4 billion people in 54 states, whose turn by hokk or by crook will doubtless arrive centre stage one day.


The answer to the question - "And you think regime type isn't explanatory when it comes to which countries ally together, how they respond to aggression, etc.? Seems pretty implausible!" - is that it is not regime type - say Dictatorship, Oligarchy, Democracy - but more geography, demographics, history and economies that are the drivers, with a place for Great People and the part played by Chance.


While the West seems pretty coherent and unified, about the anything you can say about the global south or the bricks or the former communist world is that they are united in their opposition to the west and the hypocrisy of Western values.

Interesting to note that...

What is the most interesting part in this story is the missed opportunity offered by perestroika because the Thucydides Trap tells of when Sparta refused to accept the rising power that was Athens and preferred to go to war rather than lose its place, but as is so often the case in these Prisoner Dilemma tales it was a third party, Rome, that triumphed.

Also interesting to note that Great Britain went to war with Germany in what is called the first World War in order to prevent another rising power, Germany, from taking its place. And indeed Germany has never been an imperial power although it could have served as a relay between Great Britain and America.

CONCLUSION


Friday, 21 July 2023

VALUE INVESTING WITH ASWATH DAMODARAN

21 July 2023

Someone value investors listen to Aswath Damodaran.
A good interview:
https://youtu.be/mlEiGnCLL80

His blog:
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/?m=1

About him, if you are still interested!
https://www.blogger.com/profile/12021594649672906878

Monday, 17 July 2023

WHERE IN THE WAR ARE WE HEADING

17 July 2023

Defeat, chaos and submission

ORIGINS

America provoked this war through Nato expansion, colour revolutions, refusal of dialogue and its openly-declared intent to weaken Russia (before pivoting to China incidentally!) and more specifically the invitation to Ukraine in 2008 to join Nato. America has contained and cornered Russia to a point where Russia feels its security and very existence is so compromised it must respond. Russia and many foreign policy analysts did give notice down the years that Ukraine was the brightest of Russia's red lines, but all attempts at conflict resolution were ignored.

The history of this war, as described in previous articles, is strewn with American provocations and breaches of faith. 1990 "not one inch". 2004 Maidan. 2008 Budapest. 2014 Coup. 2015 Donbas, Crimea and Minsk. 2021 Final arming of Ukraine. 24 February 2022 Russian incursion. 28 March 2022 Istanbul. April 2022 Escalation and attrition. July 2023 Vilnius Ukraine's admission request rejected.

DEFEAT IS INADMISSABLE

All Russia's warnings were ignored, America thought it knew better, with the result that now we are engaged in a costly war that threatens Russia's existence and America's global supremacy. 

This is a war where goals, ways (strategies) and means (men, methods, machines, munitions) are completely at opposites. Neither side can admit defeat; but neither is negotiation possible.

TERRITORY AND NEUTRALITY

Neither side can can make concessions in its claim to strategically important Crimea (the Black Sea and Svastopol), the four oblasts and likely four more including Odesa and possibly Transnistria. 

Neither side can concede on Nato membership as Ukraine is either in or it isn't in.

STRATEGIES

America in its strategy of escalation continues to supply technology and ever more deadly weapons systems on a course that would lead inexorably and certainly to nuclear war, that is for sure.

While Russia in its strategy of attrition and using its much superior means will wipe out the Ukrainian army, the regime in Kiev, and leave Ukraine a smouldering wreck with no two stones left one standing on top of the other.

No DMZ or cold war seems possible, leaving the only outcome possible to be military defeat.

CONSEQUENCES

If the point of the war was to complete Russian encirclement, it has failed as Ukraine will never join Nato. This was well trailored going back to 2008  There is also no way Crimea will be recovered, nor the Donbas, and the longer the war persists, the less of Ukraine will exist.

So we can say wirh confidence that the war was foolish, pointless and avoidable; it has resulted in the destructionof Ukraine and shortly of the Zelinsky regime; and all this chaos, loss of life and destruction was provoked by America.

We can also conclude that, given these are nuclear armed superpowers and Russian superiority on the battlefield, the most probable outcome is total defeat for Ukraine and an eventual American pullback ("cut and run" as in previous foreign policy adventures from Vietnam to Afghanistan, soon Syria, that we all know only too well), with the deaths and mutilations of hundreds of thousands of Ukraine's citizens, Nato's being shown up as a paper tiger and the world economy and politics split in two.

What will Ukraine's neighbours make of this debacle? Will for example Poland call on its Polish Lithuanian Ukrainian Pact to seize Western Ukraine? Wil Transnistria separate legally from Moldova and join S W Russia?

DEFEAT, CHAOS AND SUBMISSION

America, instead of destroying or weakening Russia, will have driven Russia into the arms of its true rival and Asian-region competitor: China. It will have, entirely through its own stupidity, self-destructed, but not before leaving Europe in its worse mess and dependency since the creation of the EU.

AND EUROPE WILL RISE AGAIN

How much easier would it be for Europe to slowly withdraw from this war, seek peace with Russia based on trade and a New Security Architecture, renew its leaderships and start to build up its own independence.

Sunday, 16 July 2023

BALI CULTURE

16 July 2023

The lady first on the left is my landlady. She looks younger than she is, a lot younger, maybe it's the yoga, she is very busy but always hugely relaxed and friendly. ✓


Naben (a Balinese cremation ceremony).  This was remembering my landlady's grandfather, back in her village. Again, many cremated at the same time, they pool their money to reduce costs.



Different colours for the different families, a family cremating its loved one.


I have to say that Indonesians enjoy a unique dress sense, with wonderfully clashing patterns and quite startlingly contrasting colours.


The women are built with big firm breasts and buttocks; which compares with women from Siam central Thailand who enjoy slimmer figures.

Bali is Hindu, but a sizeable Muslim population too. I can definitely say that Islam has a focus on simplicity and the next world, compared with this rich Hindu culture of stories, customs, rituals, art and sculptures, and a highly distinctive architecture.


Saturday, 15 July 2023

A REALISTIC START TO THE END GAME IN UKRAINE

16 July 2023

Let us recall the issues that prevent a peaceful resolutuon. There are two: territory - both sides cannot have Crime; neutrality - Ukrain wants what it thinks is the security of Nato membership, Russia insists on neutrality.

The regimes in Kiev and Washington won't accept peace until Russia is defeated, which it never will be, on pain of nuclear war. If Ukraine were ever to join Nato with its regime, it would rag Russia some more over lost territiry until Russia had to step in again, even if America had given up on weakening Russia. This would trigger Art.5 and there would be direct confrontation betwwen superpowers which would quickly escalate to nuclear, blowing the top off our home.

Also worth pointing out that Nato is currently a paper tiger, something not widely believed, with at a minimum five years to assemble, train and supply an army strong enough to assure Europe's survival in a conventional war. Furthermore, Nato has not fought a war since Serbia in 1999.

It is really only at that point - a balance of power restored - that The West would be in a position to negotiate a lasting peace, meaning a new security architecture. The alternative is a cold war where what is left of  Ukraine is contained by Russia.

Personally, I have no confidence in our existing institutions and their immature, mediocre, greedy leaderships. You can see that because of focusing on China, America is wrapped up in Ukraine and it has driven Russia into the arms of China. 

I have greater ideals than to be a vassal state of a foolish America and its losing foreign policy elite. The 'neocons' are dedicated to assuring America's perpetual unchallenged hegemony through military means and sanctions and that is not achievanle any more in this tripolar world.

Change comes from within, let's make that positive for Europe.

TWO SURPRISING FACTS ABOUT THE WAR IN UKRAINE

14 July 2023

END GAMES

Looking back on this war or special military operation, as the Russians like to call it, there are a couple of points that stand out as really quite surprising.

Although a government's first priority is the security of its land and its people, this cannot be taken at the expense of its neighbours, instead "balance of power" arrangements normally prevail. Russia saw the threat by NATO to move into Ukraine, rightly or wrongly, as a threat to its security and given the history of invasions from the West this is understandable, at least that was Russia's perception and in the absence of dialogue perceptions count more than reality. Russia made it perfectly clear from many many years back that there is no way it could ever accept Ukraine's membership of NATO. This was what this current proxy war, as some like to see it, was all about and it's now clear, let's face it, from the Vilnius summit that NATO accepts this point, that Ukraine cannot become a member.

So what was the point of the war, how did we ever get into an armed conflict? And why is the war still ongoing instead of efforts to negotiate a ceasefire and peace agreement?

Another most surprising point that has emerged recently is that Russia is fully cognisant of Ukraine's need for security, just as it is for its own. This is clear from the negotiations that took place in Istanbul in March and April last year. Ukraine's security needs were detailed and detailed in a lot of detail and both sides signed or at least initialed what was already quite a comprehensive document. What NATO is now offering Ukraine in terms of security at Vilnius is a vetsion far cut down from the offer that Russia made last year. So again we can ask what has been the point of all this bloodshed and expense and real lasting damage to the interests of both sides in Europe?

What is preventing Ukraine from going back to that negotiating table in Istanbul and attempting to revive the agreement, such as it was, other than its own pride and the certain knowledge that what was on offer then would not resemble what Russia would be prepared to offer today?

And the snswer must be the present administration in Washington, with its strong neocon biais. Achange of policy would at least require changes replacing these people. Furthermore, if and when the Ukrainian offensive fails, next month or September, and Russia strikes in an offensive of its own, how will the Democratic party administration react? Particulary considering the effect of failure on their election chances in November 2024? 

So either America takes matters into its own hands and marches in if not its own troops then troops from Poland and Romania or else the President renews his national security staff and ushers in a new strategy which would acknowledge this setback and deal with it through negotiation.

Here is an informative and interesting Scott Ritter talking about endgames as a military man.

https://www.youtube.com/live/Qglxww40pTs?feature=share