Monday, 17 July 2023

WHERE IN THE WAR ARE WE HEADING

17 July 2023

Defeat, chaos and submission

ORIGINS

America provoked this war through Nato expansion, colour revolutions, refusal of dialogue and its openly-declared intent to weaken Russia (before pivoting to China incidentally!) and more specifically the invitation to Ukraine in 2008 to join Nato. America has contained and cornered Russia to a point where Russia feels its security and very existence is so compromised it must respond. Russia and many foreign policy analysts did give notice down the years that Ukraine was the brightest of Russia's red lines, but all attempts at conflict resolution were ignored.

The history of this war, as described in previous articles, is strewn with American provocations and breaches of faith. 1990 "not one inch". 2004 Maidan. 2008 Budapest. 2014 Coup. 2015 Donbas, Crimea and Minsk. 2021 Final arming of Ukraine. 24 February 2022 Russian incursion. 28 March 2022 Istanbul. April 2022 Escalation and attrition. July 2023 Vilnius Ukraine's admission request rejected.

DEFEAT IS INADMISSABLE

All Russia's warnings were ignored, America thought it knew better, with the result that now we are engaged in a costly war that threatens Russia's existence and America's global supremacy. 

This is a war where goals, ways (strategies) and means (men, methods, machines, munitions) are completely at opposites. Neither side can admit defeat; but neither is negotiation possible.

TERRITORY AND NEUTRALITY

Neither side can can make concessions in its claim to strategically important Crimea (the Black Sea and Svastopol), the four oblasts and likely four more including Odesa and possibly Transnistria. 

Neither side can concede on Nato membership as Ukraine is either in or it isn't in.

STRATEGIES

America in its strategy of escalation continues to supply technology and ever more deadly weapons systems on a course that would lead inexorably and certainly to nuclear war, that is for sure.

While Russia in its strategy of attrition and using its much superior means will wipe out the Ukrainian army, the regime in Kiev, and leave Ukraine a smouldering wreck with no two stones left one standing on top of the other.

No DMZ or cold war seems possible, leaving the only outcome possible to be military defeat.

CONSEQUENCES

If the point of the war was to complete Russian encirclement, it has failed as Ukraine will never join Nato. This was well trailored going back to 2008  There is also no way Crimea will be recovered, nor the Donbas, and the longer the war persists, the less of Ukraine will exist.

So we can say wirh confidence that the war was foolish, pointless and avoidable; it has resulted in the destructionof Ukraine and shortly of the Zelinsky regime; and all this chaos, loss of life and destruction was provoked by America.

We can also conclude that, given these are nuclear armed superpowers and Russian superiority on the battlefield, the most probable outcome is total defeat for Ukraine and an eventual American pullback ("cut and run" as in previous foreign policy adventures from Vietnam to Afghanistan, soon Syria, that we all know only too well), with the deaths and mutilations of hundreds of thousands of Ukraine's citizens, Nato's being shown up as a paper tiger and the world economy and politics split in two.

What will Ukraine's neighbours make of this debacle? Will for example Poland call on its Polish Lithuanian Ukrainian Pact to seize Western Ukraine? Wil Transnistria separate legally from Moldova and join S W Russia?

DEFEAT, CHAOS AND SUBMISSION

America, instead of destroying or weakening Russia, will have driven Russia into the arms of its true rival and Asian-region competitor: China. It will have, entirely through its own stupidity, self-destructed, but not before leaving Europe in its worse mess and dependency since the creation of the EU.

AND EUROPE WILL RISE AGAIN

How much easier would it be for Europe to slowly withdraw from this war, seek peace with Russia based on trade and a New Security Architecture, renew its leaderships and start to build up its own independence.

Sunday, 16 July 2023

BALI CULTURE

16 July 2023

The lady first on the left is my landlady. She looks younger than she is, a lot younger, maybe it's the yoga, she is very busy but always hugely relaxed and friendly. ✓


Naben (a Balinese cremation ceremony).  This was remembering my landlady's grandfather, back in her village. Again, many cremated at the same time, they pool their money to reduce costs.



Different colours for the different families, a family cremating its loved one.


I have to say that Indonesians enjoy a unique dress sense, with wonderfully clashing patterns and quite startlingly contrasting colours.


The women are built with big firm breasts and buttocks; which compares with women from Siam central Thailand who enjoy slimmer figures.

Bali is Hindu, but a sizeable Muslim population too. I can definitely say that Islam has a focus on simplicity and the next world, compared with this rich Hindu culture of stories, customs, rituals, art and sculptures, and a highly distinctive architecture.


Saturday, 15 July 2023

A REALISTIC START TO THE END GAME IN UKRAINE

16 July 2023

Let us recall the issues that prevent a peaceful resolutuon. There are two: territory - both sides cannot have Crime; neutrality - Ukrain wants what it thinks is the security of Nato membership, Russia insists on neutrality.

The regimes in Kiev and Washington won't accept peace until Russia is defeated, which it never will be, on pain of nuclear war. If Ukraine were ever to join Nato with its regime, it would rag Russia some more over lost territiry until Russia had to step in again, even if America had given up on weakening Russia. This would trigger Art.5 and there would be direct confrontation betwwen superpowers which would quickly escalate to nuclear, blowing the top off our home.

Also worth pointing out that Nato is currently a paper tiger, something not widely believed, with at a minimum five years to assemble, train and supply an army strong enough to assure Europe's survival in a conventional war. Furthermore, Nato has not fought a war since Serbia in 1999.

It is really only at that point - a balance of power restored - that The West would be in a position to negotiate a lasting peace, meaning a new security architecture. The alternative is a cold war where what is left of  Ukraine is contained by Russia.

Personally, I have no confidence in our existing institutions and their immature, mediocre, greedy leaderships. You can see that because of focusing on China, America is wrapped up in Ukraine and it has driven Russia into the arms of China. 

I have greater ideals than to be a vassal state of a foolish America and its losing foreign policy elite. The 'neocons' are dedicated to assuring America's perpetual unchallenged hegemony through military means and sanctions and that is not achievanle any more in this tripolar world.

Change comes from within, let's make that positive for Europe.

TWO SURPRISING FACTS ABOUT THE WAR IN UKRAINE

14 July 2023

END GAMES

Looking back on this war or special military operation, as the Russians like to call it, there are a couple of points that stand out as really quite surprising.

Although a government's first priority is the security of its land and its people, this cannot be taken at the expense of its neighbours, instead "balance of power" arrangements normally prevail. Russia saw the threat by NATO to move into Ukraine, rightly or wrongly, as a threat to its security and given the history of invasions from the West this is understandable, at least that was Russia's perception and in the absence of dialogue perceptions count more than reality. Russia made it perfectly clear from many many years back that there is no way it could ever accept Ukraine's membership of NATO. This was what this current proxy war, as some like to see it, was all about and it's now clear, let's face it, from the Vilnius summit that NATO accepts this point, that Ukraine cannot become a member.

So what was the point of the war, how did we ever get into an armed conflict? And why is the war still ongoing instead of efforts to negotiate a ceasefire and peace agreement?

Another most surprising point that has emerged recently is that Russia is fully cognisant of Ukraine's need for security, just as it is for its own. This is clear from the negotiations that took place in Istanbul in March and April last year. Ukraine's security needs were detailed and detailed in a lot of detail and both sides signed or at least initialed what was already quite a comprehensive document. What NATO is now offering Ukraine in terms of security at Vilnius is a vetsion far cut down from the offer that Russia made last year. So again we can ask what has been the point of all this bloodshed and expense and real lasting damage to the interests of both sides in Europe?

What is preventing Ukraine from going back to that negotiating table in Istanbul and attempting to revive the agreement, such as it was, other than its own pride and the certain knowledge that what was on offer then would not resemble what Russia would be prepared to offer today?

And the snswer must be the present administration in Washington, with its strong neocon biais. Achange of policy would at least require changes replacing these people. Furthermore, if and when the Ukrainian offensive fails, next month or September, and Russia strikes in an offensive of its own, how will the Democratic party administration react? Particulary considering the effect of failure on their election chances in November 2024? 

So either America takes matters into its own hands and marches in if not its own troops then troops from Poland and Romania or else the President renews his national security staff and ushers in a new strategy which would acknowledge this setback and deal with it through negotiation.

Here is an informative and interesting Scott Ritter talking about endgames as a military man.

https://www.youtube.com/live/Qglxww40pTs?feature=share

Friday, 14 July 2023

is.gd/3H0KKJ

About three weeks ago I was traveling through the brousse of a third-world country and stooped for lunch at a roadside 'warung'. I found myself enjoying a leg of grain-fed roast chicken, served up in all its bone and fibre, when a tooth got a superficial crack.

The tooth had been root-canalled back in Europe, the root was ok not cracked.  and a local dentist did a crown and all is now fine after treatment identical to any you'd get in the UK.

Except it wasn't. The root canal cost £1,000 in Ealing and a crown would have cost the same. But here I paid £250.

The dentist txted me to see if it was ok and tomorrow I go for a checkup: 100,000 rupiah (that's £5).

Wednesday, 12 July 2023

LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE RULES OK

21 April 2024 - UPDATE

THREE REASONS TO INVEST IN THE LSE

Investing in the London Stock Exchange (LSE) can be attractive for several reasons, particularly for those looking to diversify their portfolio or tap into unique investment opportunities Consider That Prices of companies on the LSE are amongst the cheapest in the world for Industry and sector. Here are three compelling reasons to consider investing in the LSE:

1. Diverse Range of Companies

The LSE hosts a diverse array of companies from various sectors, including financial services, mining, oil and gas, and consumer goods, among others. This diversity allows investors to spread their risk across different industries and tap into different economic cycles. Moreover, the LSE is known for its large number of international listings, offering exposure to global markets, particularly in emerging economies like Africa and Asia, where many companies listed on the LSE operate.

2. Strong Regulatory Framework

The UK boasts one of the world's strongest regulatory frameworks, underpinned by a history of financial stability and governance standards. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) ensure that the market operates in a transparent and fair manner. This regulatory environment helps protect investors and adds a level of security to investments made in the LSE, making it a safe harbor particularly in times of global financial uncertainty.

3. Access to Liquidity and Capital Growth Opportunities

The LSE is one of the world’s oldest and largest stock exchanges, offering high liquidity which makes it easier for investors to enter and exit positions. This liquidity, combined with the exchange’s link to dynamic sectors such as fintech, green energy, and biotechnology, provides strong capital growth opportunities. The presence of both well-established blue-chip companies and smaller enterprises poised for growth offers a balanced mix for growth and value investing.

These factors make the LSE an attractive option for investors seeking a robust investment platform that offers both security and opportunities for substantial growth in a globally respected market environment.

SUMMARY

Stephen Anness's Analysis of UK Value Traps

1. Overview of Stephen Anness's Investment Shift**

Stephen Anness, managing Invesco Select Trust’s global equity income portfolio, has expressed concerns over the persistent stagnation in certain sectors of the UK's FTSE 100 index. His decision to transition from focusing on UK equities to global equities in 2009 was influenced by the lacklustre performance of stocks in ex-growth sectors such as oil, healthcare, and telecoms. Anness observed that these sectors, despite their significant presence in the FTSE 100, have not seen meaningful share price growth over the last two decades, excluding dividends.

2. The Misleading Appeal of the UK Market**

Anness argues that the attractive price-earnings ratio and dividend yield of the UK market can be misleading. The stocks, while cheap, often fall into what he describes as "value trap" territory—stocks that are low priced for substantial reasons and show little prospect of appreciation. He notes that many of these stocks are priced similarly to their values at the start of his career over twenty years ago, underscoring their stagnant nature despite paying decent dividends in some cases.

3. The Composition Issue within the FTSE**

The underperformance of the FTSE is attributed not to a general aversion to the UK market but to the composition of the index itself, which is heavily weighted towards these ex-growth sectors. This structural issue within the FTSE makes it challenging for investors to realise significant gains from these stocks, as they are often entrenched in industries that struggle to generate robust earnings and free cash flow growth.

4. Anness's Global Investment Strategy**

In contrast to his view on the UK market, Anness has adopted a more optimistic stance towards global markets, where he identifies companies with the potential for growth and value creation. He specifically highlights opportunities in markets like Asia and the US, beyond the well-known large-cap companies. Anness looks for firms with strong competitive advantages, excellent management teams, and a clear focus on capital allocation and shareholder value. These attributes, he believes, are essential for sustainable growth and favourable returns.

5. Conclusion and Strategic Outlook**

Stephen Anness’s critique of the UK market as filled with value traps reflects a broader strategic preference for investing in markets and companies where growth potential is backed by strong fundamentals. His approach underscores the importance of looking beyond short-term price metrics to assess the long-term viability and growth prospects of investments.

**Glossary of Terms**

- *FTSE 100*: The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalisation.
- *Ex-growth sectors*: Industries that are characterised by slow or no growth in terms of revenue or market expansion.
- *Value traps*: Stocks that appear to be cheap because they are trading at low valuation metrics but are cheap for reasons that hinder their potential for appreciation.

**Further Reading**

For more insights into global investment strategies and understanding value traps:
- [Investopedia: Value Traps](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuetrap.asp)
- [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com) for ongoing analysis of global equity markets.

This detailed overview offers insights into Stephen Anness’s investment philosophy and the reasons behind his cautious stance on UK equities, illustrating the importance of strategic asset selection in achieving long-term investment success.

ARTICLE

Invesco’s Anness: UK has too many value traps for a global investor like me
The FTSE 100 is dominated by ex-growth oil, healthcare and telecom stocks whose share prices have essentially gone nowhere in the past 20 years, says Invesco’s Stephen Anness.

BY
CITYWIRE

Stephen Anness, manager of Invesco Select Trust’s global equity income portfolio (IVPG), is pleased that he switched from UK to global equities in 2009. He says too many companies in the UK’s FTSE 100 index are in ex-growth sectors such as oil, healthcare and telecoms. Their share prices, excluding dividends, have essentially gone nowhere during his career, which is why he prefers to take a worldwide search for businesses that can invest for the future and support rising dividends.


So, it’s not a play on the UK economy, but the UK market is a good place to find cheap, good-quality stocks. Is it?

Stephen Anness:

I started 22 years ago on the UK desk, as I mentioned. I moved to global about ten years ago. I would say that in the UK, there are some very cheap stocks, but as in many markets around the world, often those stocks are cheap for a reason. A lot of those companies are broadly the same share price as when I started my career two-and-a-bit decades ago. Some of them have paid a decent dividend on the way, but many of them lack the characteristics that I’ve talked about in terms of Broadcom or 3i. Businesses that are able to grow, reinvest and pay a growing dividend. So, I think in some of the sectors that are quite dominant in the UK, some commodity sectors. Some large-cap healthcare, telcos for instance. They’re hard industries to actually really generate decent levels of earnings and free cash flow growth out of. 

So yes, there are some assets in the UK market that I think are appealing and we’ve touched on some of them, but I do think that the notion of looking at the UK and saying the headline PE [price-earnings ratio] of the UK market and the dividend yield of the UK market look appealing in the context of wider markets is a bit misleading. I do think some of those companies and significant index weights, some of those are most definitely what I would describe in value trap territory. They’re definitely cheap, but I think they’re cheap for a reason and you will probably end up with a broadly similar share price five years from now.

Gavin Lumsden:

So, the poor performance of the FTSE isn’t because investors are shying away from the UK market?

Stephen Anness:

I think it’s a constituent issue of what’s in the market, yes.

Gavin Lumsden:

Have you been surprised there hasn’t been more tactical allocation? I was thinking you were keener on the UK, but you’re not surprised that there hasn’t been more tactical allocation on the idea of the UK being cheap.

Stephen Anness:

No. If you look at it in the way I look at it, no.  I think it’s rational, absolutely. I do think other markets, some of the US are getting extended and things. I’m trying to find 40 to 45 companies globally, out of thousands that we can look at. There are always interesting things going on. There are some great companies in Asia. There are some interesting companies in Japan. That has certain nuances as well. In America, once you move beyond some of the very large-cap, highly talked about companies, there are some brilliant companies slightly further down the market-cap spectrum. Slightly amusingly, they’re often described as mid-cap, but they can often be $25bn companies. Some of them are amazing with brilliant competitive advantages, excellent management teams and laser sharp focus on capital allocation and shareholder value creation. Those are the kinds of companies that we’re looking for.



BRITISH STOCK MARKETS CHEAPEST IN THE WORLD

11 July 2023

That's a great newspaper article. What is it telling us?

It's about divi stocks and is saying, 
- never mind the loss of capital, look at the income; 
- but also, this has gone far enough, share prices surely can't go any lower; 
- conclusion: dive in now to have your cake (the pie can only get bigger from hereonin) and eat it (as share prices rise that yield-to-cost is going to get more and more delicious)!

There are lots of moves underway to sell the idea that British companies are very undervalued compared with....compared with any other stock exchange, anywhere in the world that you care to look at.

Growth stocks do give better returns over the long run, but economies are cyclical and defensive divi stocks would outperform growth in a recession, normally...

COMPARING S M AND LONG TERM RETURNS ON THE LSE WITH OTHER STOCK MARKETS

Comparison of Short, Medium, and Long-Term Returns on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) versus Other Stock Markets

Investing on the LSE and other global stock exchanges can yield different returns depending on the time frame and the type of return (total shareholder return or TSR, split into income from dividends and capital appreciation). Here's how these differ for short-term, medium-term, and long-term investment horizons:

1. Short-Term Returns (up to 1 year)**

   - LSE**: 

Short-term returns on the LSE can be volatile, reflecting global economic conditions, currency fluctuations due to Brexit implications, and domestic market dynamics. The income component from dividends might be relatively stable, but capital appreciation can vary significantly.

   - Other Markets 

(e.g., NYSE, NASDAQ)**: U.S. markets, particularly the tech-heavy NASDAQ, often show higher short-term capital appreciation due to the rapid growth of technology stocks, albeit with higher volatility. The income return, typically from dividends, is generally lower than that of the LSE, as many high-growth U.S. companies reinvest profits rather than distribute them.

 2. Medium-Term Returns (1 to 5 years)**

   - LSE**: 

The medium-term returns on the LSE can be influenced by the UK's political and economic adjustments to post-Brexit conditions. The market may provide modest capital growth but offers robust dividend yields, particularly from sectors like utilities and consumer goods, which traditionally focus on high dividend payouts.

   - Other Markets

(e.g., DAX, Nikkei 225)**: 

European markets like the DAX may exhibit similar capital appreciation to the LSE but often with slightly lower dividend yields. Japan's Nikkei 225 might offer lower income returns but potential for substantial capital appreciation if Japan's economic policies stimulate growth.

3. Long-Term Returns (over 5 years)**

   - LSE**: 

Over the long term, the LSE has provided stable income returns through dividends, which is appealing to income-focused investors. Capital appreciation is generally lower compared to U.S. markets but consistent, particularly in traditional industries such as finance and oil and gas.

   - Other Markets

 (e.g., S&P 500, Emerging Markets)**: The S&P 500 has historically offered high long-term capital appreciation with moderate income returns, driven by strong performance in sectors like technology and healthcare. Emerging markets are more variable but can offer high growth potential in both capital appreciation and income, albeit at higher risk levels.

### Key Differences in TSR Components

- Income (Dividends)**: 

The LSE is often favoured for its higher dividend yield compared to many other markets, making it attractive for income-seeking investors. This is partly due to the presence of mature, large-cap companies in sectors like oil, gas, and financial services that traditionally pay higher dividends.
  
- Capital Appreciation**: 

U.S. markets, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P 500, typically outperform the LSE in terms of capital appreciation, driven by the growth in technology and biotech sectors. The LSE's capital growth is often more subdued, reflecting the mature nature of many of its listed companies and economic growth rates in the UK and Europe.

Conclusion

When choosing between the LSE and other global markets, investors should consider their risk tolerance, investment horizon, and the desired balance between income and capital growth. The LSE may be more suitable for those seeking stable, income-driven returns, while other markets, like the U.S. and emerging markets, might be better for those seeking higher capital growth. Each market has its characteristics and potential benefits, depending on individual investment strategies and economic cycles.

Tuesday, 11 July 2023

WAR IN EUROPE OR A NEW SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

11 July 2023

Finland and Sweden joining NATO is good news for investors in American arms manufacturers and NATO, bad news for Finland and Sweden's taxpayers, and otherwise seems to be unnecessary unless you think Russia is planning to zip up its Western frontier this side of Eastern Europe ie back to pre 1991.

Doubtless the Americans helped along the collapse of the Soviet Union in many ways, not least by promising Gorbachez and Yeltsin it would not expand NATO "one inch East". But the Soviet Union was destined to collapse from the get-go as those in the Politburo truly and sincerely believed in Communism - collective ownership by the state and a fully planned economy - was the next step in human evolution. It wasn't and the Soviet Union collapsed under the weight of its own inefficiencies and attempt to reshape human nature.

Does Putin nonetheless want to recreate the empire of the Czar or the Soviet Union? My reading is that he is not interested in taking control of the fringe former Soviet states but rather he is interested in securing Russia's Western borders against further Western attack by neutralising in some way those countries where NATO wants to, or has, lodged its nuclear weapons.

Some of Putin's utterances that may help us understand his mind:

"We have every reason to assume that the infamous policy of containment, conducted in the 18th, 19th and 20th Centuries, continues today. They are constantly trying to sweep us into a corner because we have an independent position"

"If you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard. You must always remember this."

“The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

“Anyone who doesn’t regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains.”

This makes him a nationalist in the geographic sense of the Russian Federation, although he supports Russian ethnic minorities living outside Russia, in former Novorossiya for instance.

Personally, I am a realist who believes that the peace is kept by a balance of power; and thus someone who thinks that peace and security in Europe can be obtained by our negotiating a fresh security architecture with Russia, for Europe, rather than conducting a war which the West unfortunately cannot win. 

Defeat of the West in Ukraine was - and still is for many - once unimaginable, in spite of all the historic precedents from Vietnam onwards. This is because Nationalism, or the fight for survival, is the strongest force in politics. Should either side have to face defeat, ie its very existence or world primacy is threatened, there would be consequences that today for most people are unimaginable.

We in the West can either accept that risk of nuclear war, or we can refuse to take that risk and instead step back and negotiate a new security architecture. The benefits that would flow to Europe and Eurasia in almost all domains of human endeavour would be absolutely immense.

Sunday, 9 July 2023

THE WAR TO END ALL WARS CAN STILL BE AVOIDED

10 July 2023

While the Nasties are in power in Kiev, Ukraine cannot join NATO. This is because they will continue to rag Russia for Crimea and the Donbas, Russia will respond, then the regime in Kiev will call in NATO under art.5.


Before you know it, NATO - which means America - will be at war with Russia. It won't be a proxy war anymore, it'll be WW3 (like Biden said at the start), it'll be two superpowers fighting each other in Ukraine and we know how that will end.

So that's why Ukraine cannot join NATO. 


Now, if Ukraine committed in its Constitution to neutrality - meaning no nuclear weapons, army limited to say 85,000, controls on weapons, presence of NATO and Russian peacekeepers on their soil. There must be a verifiable ceasefire to allow this resolution to be discussed and agreed.


It is worth pointing out that Russia has no objection to Ukraine joining the EU. On the contrary, Putin is on record as saying Russia would help.


So this all begs the big question that some asked at the start : what ever was the point of this war? 


A map shows us that there are gaps in Russia's natural Western frontier with the rest of Europe. And history teaches that Russia has been invaded over 50 times through these holes (there are nine of them) in its thousand year history. So everyone could understand Russia's security concerns in the face of the advances by Western forces towards Moscow. That's Russia's perception.


That is why, in the light of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, to name the major disasters, it was easy to predict, back at the start of this "military operation", that it would end in another disaster for the allies, and perhaps the last for America, if not the world.

Saturday, 8 July 2023

PLAYING DIRTY

8 July 2023


It's ok to want to be number one, but it's how you get there, it's your values, that matter.

Power is a result of your population, your people with their skills and ambitions; and with the wealth base that you have built up which includes your infrastructure, your technology, your knowledge.

In its race to be number one America has cheated. It's not really the best man that is winning, because it has doped its economy unnaturally with debt (that will never be repaid incidentally, not even at par) and it has favoured force over fair trade and negotiation, both an abuse of power.

It's difficult to demonstrate what a corrupt and undemocratic country America has become under the neocon establishment, with its military-industrial-congressional complex, but that's what it is. The people are continuously misled by the propaganda and distractions, but will sometime say they've had enough.

Cluster bombs, carpet bombing, napalm...no surprises from this depraved establishment.

Friday, 7 July 2023

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE UK ECONOMY - PT II

7 July 2023

I visited S Africa not so long ago, twice in fact. I traveled along the Garden Route from Cape Town to Durban, and then up the middlt to Jo'burg. So to get an idea of the UK economy, as lived by ordinary people, let's compare the two countries.

The UK is a poor country, compared with the top EU countries, but it has a strong currency and an enormous wealth of soft power and influence on the world stage.

Now of course there are poor neighbourhoods in any country. But the real surprise is not that these neighbourhoods exist, but that they make up the majority of UK neighbourhoods - at least 80% of the neighbourhoods in every city UK city I know look similar to this.




Pick any UK city and drop a street view pin randomly anywhere in the suburbs and this is what you'll see.

But do the same in Denmark or Netherlands and you'll not to see any of this.

Take a look at the cost of living, or inflation currently 8.7%. Salaries in the UK may be 50–100% higher than in South Africa , but electricity costs are rhree to four times higher.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=South+Africa

The average UK wage is £31k, meaning you take home £2,000 a month. How far would that go in London today?

You could not afford a flat - the rent in London for a 60 sqm flat with irange curtains is £1,500 and bills and council tax would be a further £250 per month. (All figures averaged and approximative.)

Or consider car insurance in the UK. Even with many years driving experience, minimal claims record, I spoke to insurance salesmen and the cheapest car insurance I found was  £2200 per year.

The UK may have a strong currency and seems a wealthy country by GDP, but for ordinary people, things are pretty expensive and this leaves in people in the UK poor compared with their life for their European neighbours. Here is a map showing areas of relative poverty in Europe.


The UK is certainly a great place to live for many reasons rhat we will consider, below, and we are better off here than South Africa, but in terms of wealth, the comparison with S A shows we are not as better off as we might like to think.

The UK is a better place to live than the Netherlands or Germany or even Switzerland, maybe not France or Spain, for the warmth of its people, the beauty of its landscapes, the richness of its culture and history, and the qualities of its language, communications and entertainment. 

Britain is also a major finance centre, the industrial revolution started here, it has universities in the world's top ten, 

BRITAIN'S NUMBER ONE ISSUE IS ITS POVERTY

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/22/britain-is-now-a-poor-nation-this-is-our-number-one-issue/

It is a great article, and the causes of our relative poverty are given as currency debasement, expensive housing, inefficient NHS, poor productivity, govt admin and tax inefficiencies, naively overgenerous welfare and pension provision, mediocre politicians chasing the election lure

While the readers in their comments all blame the men who won't work

Draft to be completed. .....

WHAT WILL ZELINSKY DO WHEN HE SEES THAT THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING FOR HIM?

7 July 2023

https://youtu.be/EKAsY3QczIA

What will Zelinsky and The West do when the Ykrainian offensive patently fails after running out of army, machines and munitions?

What will Zelinsky and The West do when they see Russia's million-man-army heading their way to the Polish border?

When Zelinsky sees the Russians coming, he'll scurry to the Polish for protection and ask for Kiev to be incorporated back into Poland. Will the Russians accept this? Of course not, they want to protect their border with political Europe.

Meanwhile, the Russians will take the next four oblasts up to the Dnieper river, which includes Odessa. This is half the pre-2014 Ukraine.

True, this will avoid nuclear conflict, which otherwise is certain, but without negotiations this will leave a running sore dragging on Europe's future (most Russians live in geographic Europe: "Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic".).

Instead of this sink hole, is it too late to have negotiations around the security situation in Europe? Probably: for example, since joining NATO, silly Finland is building a 1,340 km long fence through mostly uninhabited taiga forests and will now be buying expensive American arms to defend itself against an imaginary enemy.

And from these negotiations could come a rapprochement between Germany and Russia, saving the European economy from disastrous recession, and in a generation or two, a Europe independent from American interference, able to do trade with the RoW on our terms.