is.gd/3H0KKJ

About three weeks ago I was traveling through the brousse of a third-world country and stooped for lunch at a roadside 'warung'. I found myself enjoying a leg of grain-fed roast chicken, served up in all its bone and fibre, when a tooth got a superficial crack.

The tooth had been root-canalled back in Europe, the root was ok not cracked.  and a local dentist did a crown and all is now fine after treatment identical to any you'd get in the UK.

Except it wasn't. The root canal cost £1,000 in Ealing and a crown would have cost the same. But here I paid £250.

The dentist txted me to see if it was ok and tomorrow I go for a checkup: 100,000 rupiah (that's £5).

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LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE RULES OK

21 April 2024 - UPDATE

THREE REASONS TO INVEST IN THE LSE

Investing in the London Stock Exchange (LSE) can be attractive for several reasons, particularly for those looking to diversify their portfolio or tap into unique investment opportunities Consider That Prices of companies on the LSE are amongst the cheapest in the world for Industry and sector. Here are three compelling reasons to consider investing in the LSE:

1. Diverse Range of Companies

The LSE hosts a diverse array of companies from various sectors, including financial services, mining, oil and gas, and consumer goods, among others. This diversity allows investors to spread their risk across different industries and tap into different economic cycles. Moreover, the LSE is known for its large number of international listings, offering exposure to global markets, particularly in emerging economies like Africa and Asia, where many companies listed on the LSE operate.

2. Strong Regulatory Framework

The UK boasts one of the world's strongest regulatory frameworks, underpinned by a history of financial stability and governance standards. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) ensure that the market operates in a transparent and fair manner. This regulatory environment helps protect investors and adds a level of security to investments made in the LSE, making it a safe harbor particularly in times of global financial uncertainty.

3. Access to Liquidity and Capital Growth Opportunities

The LSE is one of the world’s oldest and largest stock exchanges, offering high liquidity which makes it easier for investors to enter and exit positions. This liquidity, combined with the exchange’s link to dynamic sectors such as fintech, green energy, and biotechnology, provides strong capital growth opportunities. The presence of both well-established blue-chip companies and smaller enterprises poised for growth offers a balanced mix for growth and value investing.

These factors make the LSE an attractive option for investors seeking a robust investment platform that offers both security and opportunities for substantial growth in a globally respected market environment.

SUMMARY

Stephen Anness's Analysis of UK Value Traps

1. Overview of Stephen Anness's Investment Shift**

Stephen Anness, managing Invesco Select Trust’s global equity income portfolio, has expressed concerns over the persistent stagnation in certain sectors of the UK's FTSE 100 index. His decision to transition from focusing on UK equities to global equities in 2009 was influenced by the lacklustre performance of stocks in ex-growth sectors such as oil, healthcare, and telecoms. Anness observed that these sectors, despite their significant presence in the FTSE 100, have not seen meaningful share price growth over the last two decades, excluding dividends.

2. The Misleading Appeal of the UK Market**

Anness argues that the attractive price-earnings ratio and dividend yield of the UK market can be misleading. The stocks, while cheap, often fall into what he describes as "value trap" territory—stocks that are low priced for substantial reasons and show little prospect of appreciation. He notes that many of these stocks are priced similarly to their values at the start of his career over twenty years ago, underscoring their stagnant nature despite paying decent dividends in some cases.

3. The Composition Issue within the FTSE**

The underperformance of the FTSE is attributed not to a general aversion to the UK market but to the composition of the index itself, which is heavily weighted towards these ex-growth sectors. This structural issue within the FTSE makes it challenging for investors to realise significant gains from these stocks, as they are often entrenched in industries that struggle to generate robust earnings and free cash flow growth.

4. Anness's Global Investment Strategy**

In contrast to his view on the UK market, Anness has adopted a more optimistic stance towards global markets, where he identifies companies with the potential for growth and value creation. He specifically highlights opportunities in markets like Asia and the US, beyond the well-known large-cap companies. Anness looks for firms with strong competitive advantages, excellent management teams, and a clear focus on capital allocation and shareholder value. These attributes, he believes, are essential for sustainable growth and favourable returns.

5. Conclusion and Strategic Outlook**

Stephen Anness’s critique of the UK market as filled with value traps reflects a broader strategic preference for investing in markets and companies where growth potential is backed by strong fundamentals. His approach underscores the importance of looking beyond short-term price metrics to assess the long-term viability and growth prospects of investments.

**Glossary of Terms**

- *FTSE 100*: The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalisation.

- *Ex-growth sectors*: Industries that are characterised by slow or no growth in terms of revenue or market expansion.

- *Value traps*: Stocks that appear to be cheap because they are trading at low valuation metrics but are cheap for reasons that hinder their potential for appreciation.

**Further Reading**

For more insights into global investment strategies and understanding value traps:

- [Investopedia: Value Traps](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuetrap.asp)

- [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com) for ongoing analysis of global equity markets.

This detailed overview offers insights into Stephen Anness’s investment philosophy and the reasons behind his cautious stance on UK equities, illustrating the importance of strategic asset selection in achieving long-term investment success.

ARTICLE

Invesco’s Anness: UK has too many value traps for a global investor like me

The FTSE 100 is dominated by ex-growth oil, healthcare and telecom stocks whose share prices have essentially gone nowhere in the past 20 years, says Invesco’s Stephen Anness.

BY

CITYWIRE

Stephen Anness, manager of Invesco Select Trust’s global equity income portfolio (IVPG), is pleased that he switched from UK to global equities in 2009. He says too many companies in the UK’s FTSE 100 index are in ex-growth sectors such as oil, healthcare and telecoms. Their share prices, excluding dividends, have essentially gone nowhere during his career, which is why he prefers to take a worldwide search for businesses that can invest for the future and support rising dividends.

So, it’s not a play on the UK economy, but the UK market is a good place to find cheap, good-quality stocks. Is it?

Stephen Anness:

I started 22 years ago on the UK desk, as I mentioned. I moved to global about ten years ago. I would say that in the UK, there are some very cheap stocks, but as in many markets around the world, often those stocks are cheap for a reason. A lot of those companies are broadly the same share price as when I started my career two-and-a-bit decades ago. Some of them have paid a decent dividend on the way, but many of them lack the characteristics that I’ve talked about in terms of Broadcom or 3i. Businesses that are able to grow, reinvest and pay a growing dividend. So, I think in some of the sectors that are quite dominant in the UK, some commodity sectors. Some large-cap healthcare, telcos for instance. They’re hard industries to actually really generate decent levels of earnings and free cash flow growth out of. 

So yes, there are some assets in the UK market that I think are appealing and we’ve touched on some of them, but I do think that the notion of looking at the UK and saying the headline PE [price-earnings ratio] of the UK market and the dividend yield of the UK market look appealing in the context of wider markets is a bit misleading. I do think some of those companies and significant index weights, some of those are most definitely what I would describe in value trap territory. They’re definitely cheap, but I think they’re cheap for a reason and you will probably end up with a broadly similar share price five years from now.

Gavin Lumsden:

So, the poor performance of the FTSE isn’t because investors are shying away from the UK market?

Stephen Anness:

I think it’s a constituent issue of what’s in the market, yes.

Gavin Lumsden:

Have you been surprised there hasn’t been more tactical allocation? I was thinking you were keener on the UK, but you’re not surprised that there hasn’t been more tactical allocation on the idea of the UK being cheap.

Stephen Anness:

No. If you look at it in the way I look at it, no.  I think it’s rational, absolutely. I do think other markets, some of the US are getting extended and things. I’m trying to find 40 to 45 companies globally, out of thousands that we can look at. There are always interesting things going on. There are some great companies in Asia. There are some interesting companies in Japan. That has certain nuances as well. In America, once you move beyond some of the very large-cap, highly talked about companies, there are some brilliant companies slightly further down the market-cap spectrum. Slightly amusingly, they’re often described as mid-cap, but they can often be $25bn companies. Some of them are amazing with brilliant competitive advantages, excellent management teams and laser sharp focus on capital allocation and shareholder value creation. Those are the kinds of companies that we’re looking for.

BRITISH STOCK MARKETS CHEAPEST IN THE WORLD

11 July 2023

That's a great newspaper article. What is it telling us?

It's about divi stocks and is saying, 

- never mind the loss of capital, look at the income; 

- but also, this has gone far enough, share prices surely can't go any lower; 

- conclusion: dive in now to have your cake (the pie can only get bigger from hereonin) and eat it (as share prices rise that yield-to-cost is going to get more and more delicious)!

There are lots of moves underway to sell the idea that British companies are very undervalued compared with....compared with any other stock exchange, anywhere in the world that you care to look at.

Growth stocks do give better returns over the long run, but economies are cyclical and defensive divi stocks would outperform growth in a recession, normally...

COMPARING S M AND LONG TERM RETURNS ON THE LSE WITH OTHER STOCK MARKETS

Comparison of Short, Medium, and Long-Term Returns on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) versus Other Stock Markets

Investing on the LSE and other global stock exchanges can yield different returns depending on the time frame and the type of return (total shareholder return or TSR, split into income from dividends and capital appreciation). Here's how these differ for short-term, medium-term, and long-term investment horizons:

1. Short-Term Returns (up to 1 year)**

   - LSE**: 

Short-term returns on the LSE can be volatile, reflecting global economic conditions, currency fluctuations due to Brexit implications, and domestic market dynamics. The income component from dividends might be relatively stable, but capital appreciation can vary significantly.

   - Other Markets 

(e.g., NYSE, NASDAQ)**: U.S. markets, particularly the tech-heavy NASDAQ, often show higher short-term capital appreciation due to the rapid growth of technology stocks, albeit with higher volatility. The income return, typically from dividends, is generally lower than that of the LSE, as many high-growth U.S. companies reinvest profits rather than distribute them.

 2. Medium-Term Returns (1 to 5 years)**

   - LSE**: 

The medium-term returns on the LSE can be influenced by the UK's political and economic adjustments to post-Brexit conditions. The market may provide modest capital growth but offers robust dividend yields, particularly from sectors like utilities and consumer goods, which traditionally focus on high dividend payouts.

   - Other Markets

(e.g., DAX, Nikkei 225)**: 

European markets like the DAX may exhibit similar capital appreciation to the LSE but often with slightly lower dividend yields. Japan's Nikkei 225 might offer lower income returns but potential for substantial capital appreciation if Japan's economic policies stimulate growth.

3. Long-Term Returns (over 5 years)**

   - LSE**: 

Over the long term, the LSE has provided stable income returns through dividends, which is appealing to income-focused investors. Capital appreciation is generally lower compared to U.S. markets but consistent, particularly in traditional industries such as finance and oil and gas.

   - Other Markets

 (e.g., S&P 500, Emerging Markets)**: The S&P 500 has historically offered high long-term capital appreciation with moderate income returns, driven by strong performance in sectors like technology and healthcare. Emerging markets are more variable but can offer high growth potential in both capital appreciation and income, albeit at higher risk levels.

### Key Differences in TSR Components

- Income (Dividends)**: 

The LSE is often favoured for its higher dividend yield compared to many other markets, making it attractive for income-seeking investors. This is partly due to the presence of mature, large-cap companies in sectors like oil, gas, and financial services that traditionally pay higher dividends.

  

- Capital Appreciation**: 

U.S. markets, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P 500, typically outperform the LSE in terms of capital appreciation, driven by the growth in technology and biotech sectors. The LSE's capital growth is often more subdued, reflecting the mature nature of many of its listed companies and economic growth rates in the UK and Europe.

Conclusion

When choosing between the LSE and other global markets, investors should consider their risk tolerance, investment horizon, and the desired balance between income and capital growth. The LSE may be more suitable for those seeking stable, income-driven returns, while other markets, like the U.S. and emerging markets, might be better for those seeking higher capital growth. Each market has its characteristics and potential benefits, depending on individual investment strategies and economic cycles.

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WAR IN EUROPE OR A NEW SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

11 July 2023

Finland and Sweden joining NATO is good news for investors in American arms manufacturers and NATO, bad news for Finland and Sweden's taxpayers, and otherwise seems to be unnecessary unless you think Russia is planning to zip up its Western frontier this side of Eastern Europe ie back to pre 1991.

Doubtless the Americans helped along the collapse of the Soviet Union in many ways, not least by promising Gorbachez and Yeltsin it would not expand NATO "one inch East". But the Soviet Union was destined to collapse from the get-go as those in the Politburo truly and sincerely believed in Communism - collective ownership by the state and a fully planned economy - was the next step in human evolution. It wasn't and the Soviet Union collapsed under the weight of its own inefficiencies and attempt to reshape human nature.

Does Putin nonetheless want to recreate the empire of the Czar or the Soviet Union? My reading is that he is not interested in taking control of the fringe former Soviet states but rather he is interested in securing Russia's Western borders against further Western attack by neutralising in some way those countries where NATO wants to, or has, lodged its nuclear weapons.

Some of Putin's utterances that may help us understand his mind:

"We have every reason to assume that the infamous policy of containment, conducted in the 18th, 19th and 20th Centuries, continues today. They are constantly trying to sweep us into a corner because we have an independent position"

"If you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard. You must always remember this."

“The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

“Anyone who doesn’t regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains.”

This makes him a nationalist in the geographic sense of the Russian Federation, although he supports Russian ethnic minorities living outside Russia, in former Novorossiya for instance.

Personally, I am a realist who believes that the peace is kept by a balance of power; and thus someone who thinks that peace and security in Europe can be obtained by our negotiating a fresh security architecture with Russia, for Europe, rather than conducting a war which the West unfortunately cannot win. 

Defeat of the West in Ukraine was - and still is for many - once unimaginable, in spite of all the historic precedents from Vietnam onwards. This is because Nationalism, or the fight for survival, is the strongest force in politics. Should either side have to face defeat, ie its very existence or world primacy is threatened, there would be consequences that today for most people are unimaginable.

We in the West can either accept that risk of nuclear war, or we can refuse to take that risk and instead step back and negotiate a new security architecture. The benefits that would flow to Europe and Eurasia in almost all domains of human endeavour would be absolutely immense.

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THE WAR TO END ALL WARS CAN STILL BE AVOIDED

10 July 2023

While the Nasties are in power in Kiev, Ukraine cannot join NATO. This is because they will continue to rag Russia for Crimea and the Donbas, Russia will respond, then the regime in Kiev will call in NATO under art.5.

Before you know it, NATO - which means America - will be at war with Russia. It won't be a proxy war anymore, it'll be WW3 (like Biden said at the start), it'll be two superpowers fighting each other in Ukraine and we know how that will end.

So that's why Ukraine cannot join NATO. 

Now, if Ukraine committed in its Constitution to neutrality - meaning no nuclear weapons, army limited to say 85,000, controls on weapons, presence of NATO and Russian peacekeepers on their soil. There must be a verifiable ceasefire to allow this resolution to be discussed and agreed.

It is worth pointing out that Russia has no objection to Ukraine joining the EU. On the contrary, Putin is on record as saying Russia would help.

So this all begs the big question that some asked at the start : what ever was the point of this war? 

A map shows us that there are gaps in Russia's natural Western frontier with the rest of Europe. And history teaches that Russia has been invaded over 50 times through these holes (there are nine of them) in its thousand year history. So everyone could understand Russia's security concerns in the face of the advances by Western forces towards Moscow. That's Russia's perception.

That is why, in the light of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, to name the major disasters, it was easy to predict, back at the start of this "military operation", that it would end in another disaster for the allies, and perhaps the last for America, if not the world.

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PLAYING DIRTY

8 July 2023

https://youtu.be/06Ytz9vGyBY

It's ok to want to be number one, but it's how you get there, it's your values, that matter.

Power is a result of your population, your people with their skills and ambitions; and with the wealth base that you have built up which includes your infrastructure, your technology, your knowledge.

In its race to be number one America has cheated. It's not really the best man that is winning, because it has doped its economy unnaturally with debt (that will never be repaid incidentally, not even at par) and it has favoured force over fair trade and negotiation, both an abuse of power.

It's difficult to demonstrate what a corrupt and undemocratic country America has become under the neocon establishment, with its military-industrial-congressional complex, but that's what it is. The people are continuously misled by the propaganda and distractions, but will sometime say they've had enough.

Cluster bombs, carpet bombing, napalm...no surprises from this depraved establishment.

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WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE UK ECONOMY - PT II

7 July 2023

I visited S Africa not so long ago, twice in fact. I traveled along the Garden Route from Cape Town to Durban, and then up the middlt to Jo'burg. So to get an idea of the UK economy, as lived by ordinary people, let's compare the two countries.

The UK is a poor country, compared with the top EU countries, but it has a strong currency and an enormous wealth of soft power and influence on the world stage.

Now of course there are poor neighbourhoods in any country. But the real surprise is not that these neighbourhoods exist, but that they make up the majority of UK neighbourhoods - at least 80% of the neighbourhoods in every city UK city I know look similar to this.

Pick any UK city and drop a street view pin randomly anywhere in the suburbs and this is what you'll see.

But do the same in Denmark or Netherlands and you'll not to see any of this.

Take a look at the cost of living, or inflation currently 8.7%. Salaries in the UK may be 50–100% higher than in South Africa , but electricity costs are rhree to four times higher.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=South+Africa

The average UK wage is £31k, meaning you take home £2,000 a month. How far would that go in London today?

You could not afford a flat - the rent in London for a 60 sqm flat with irange curtains is £1,500 and bills and council tax would be a further £250 per month. (All figures averaged and approximative.)

Or consider car insurance in the UK. Even with many years driving experience, minimal claims record, I spoke to insurance salesmen and the cheapest car insurance I found was  £2200 per year.

The UK may have a strong currency and seems a wealthy country by GDP, but for ordinary people, things are pretty expensive and this leaves in people in the UK poor compared with their life for their European neighbours. Here is a map showing areas of relative poverty in Europe.

The UK is certainly a great place to live for many reasons rhat we will consider, below, and we are better off here than South Africa, but in terms of wealth, the comparison with S A shows we are not as better off as we might like to think.

The UK is a better place to live than the Netherlands or Germany or even Switzerland, maybe not France or Spain, for the warmth of its people, the beauty of its landscapes, the richness of its culture and history, and the qualities of its language, communications and entertainment. 

Britain is also a major finance centre, the industrial revolution started here, it has universities in the world's top ten, 

BRITAIN'S NUMBER ONE ISSUE IS ITS POVERTY

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/22/britain-is-now-a-poor-nation-this-is-our-number-one-issue/

It is a great article, and the causes of our relative poverty are given as currency debasement, expensive housing, inefficient NHS, poor productivity, govt admin and tax inefficiencies, naively overgenerous welfare and pension provision, mediocre politicians chasing the election lure

While the readers in their comments all blame the men who won't work

Draft to be completed. .....

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WHAT WILL ZELINSKY DO WHEN HE SEES THAT THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING FOR HIM?

7 July 2023

https://youtu.be/EKAsY3QczIA

What will Zelinsky and The West do when the Ykrainian offensive patently fails after running out of army, machines and munitions?

What will Zelinsky and The West do when they see Russia's million-man-army heading their way to the Polish border?

When Zelinsky sees the Russians coming, he'll scurry to the Polish for protection and ask for Kiev to be incorporated back into Poland. Will the Russians accept this? Of course not, they want to protect their border with political Europe.

Meanwhile, the Russians will take the next four oblasts up to the Dnieper river, which includes Odessa. This is half the pre-2014 Ukraine.

True, this will avoid nuclear conflict, which otherwise is certain, but without negotiations this will leave a running sore dragging on Europe's future (most Russians live in geographic Europe: "Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic".).

Instead of this sink hole, is it too late to have negotiations around the security situation in Europe? Probably: for example, since joining NATO, silly Finland is building a 1,340 km long fence through mostly uninhabited taiga forests and will now be buying expensive American arms to defend itself against an imaginary enemy.

And from these negotiations could come a rapprochement between Germany and Russia, saving the European economy from disastrous recession, and in a generation or two, a Europe independent from American interference, able to do trade with the RoW on our terms.

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WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE UK ECONOMY - PT 1

What concerns ordinary people, and therefore politicians, about the economy at the moment is inflation and mortgage interest rates. What they want in general is financial stability, economic growth and social peace.

While governments dream up tax and spend programs, central banks are supposed to keep the economy ship-shape as concerns stable prices for consumers, employment and productivity for producers, and currency exchange rate and reserves for traders.

The opposite of financial stability is breakneck change. Decades of excessive govt, commercial and private sector debt, has been achieved by tremebdously cheap money and vast increases in the money supply. These spending sprees have devalued our currency, heated up inflation, central banks have responded by shrinking credit availability and raising rates at speeds never before seen.

We cannot expect economic growth when the factors of production like supply, wages and taxes, go up; while demand falls. Plus poor productivity from underinvestment, high divi payouts with too much defensive industry, and not enough learning  innovation and technology. Plus housing is way too expensive compared to wages so excessive investment in bricks misallocates capital.

And finally, peace on the streets depends on equality, equality in the distribution of assets which seems to be 95-5%; and the shareout of profits between capital and labour.

If those goals can be shared and agreed, if the problems and requirements can be addressed with strategies that are seen to be fair, then we might have a bit less conflict, a bit more pride, frugality and hard work, and then maybe more harmony in our society and less greed and anger.

We need serious programs from serious politicians and competent central banks.

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RUSSIA CLEANS UP AFTER THE COMMUNISTS

1 July 2023

https://youtu.be/Ddc1ix_9MII

At tremendously high speed, this guy Max Blumenthal sums up just about every crit made of Biden's war on Russia.

But is anyone listening?

The military industrial gov elite are visibly corrupt and self serving, but the electorate seem to be jaded and accepting. 

There are countless videos and articles on the decline of infrastructure in the USA, of the poverty in USA cities, homelessness, drugs, crime. How tough life is for millions and millions of americans at the bottom. 

But no attempt to resolve this. Hard to get your head round.....what kind of country do Americans dream of?

I am no Russophile, no Americophile either. I am objective, but cannot be impartial when I see the mess America has made of its turn to be topdog.

After a decade where Yeltsin began to switch from a planned to a market economy, all that Russia had created was a land of misery, weakness, oligarchs and drunks. Russia was no longer a communist state but neither was it capitalist.

Whatever we may read in the western press, Putin and the Russian leadership have restored the economy, the military and Russian strength and pride.

The proof is Russia redressing the post war, post soviet imbalance, same as after Versailles. Our leadership has only mismanaged its vast resources and wasted its opportunities. To mix metaphors, after throwing away a winning hand, they just keep digging.

Mismanagement, greed, corruption: bywords for the American Order (we say Order to be PC-sensitive, but it's an empire, from a historic point of view).

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WEATHER IN BALI

1 July 2023

Bali is year-round warm and humid, as it's a tropical island just south of the equator. Ubud is inland and very green and a bit cooler at night, around 29°C and for me 20° as A/c is on ha ha.

Higher up or further North you go, the cooler it gets. Kintamani, Mount Batur, climbing the Campuhan Ridge before sunrise...all ok (I don't walk in the dark, nay nay). This morning, I was halfway up the Ridge, it was around half six, what I thought was a mist thickened up into a pasting and I walked carefully back through cords of water to my bedsit.

Streets and buildings suffer from the humudity and rain, paths and pavements are uncertain at the best of weathers, so no need to risk wet slippery surfaces. ... the local lady in that Cautionary Tale was most unwise.... hospitals here have special rates for tourists.

Summer and autumn is the dry season and the busiest; otherwise winter and spring are wet. Normally at least. 

Monsoon is supposedly Nov to April. I can remember on 1 Oct 2022 I left Bali on the first day of the monsoon. Ditto 27 Sep 2019. 

Best months are April, October and November. 

Rainiest December, January and Feb, with Jan the wettest.

May is the hottest.

August is the driest and coolest.

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WHERE ARE THOSE OF GOOD FAITH?

01 July 2023

Over half of Ukrainians have lost on average three members of their family or friends dead in this conflict. Dead.

Ukraine will never in the distant forseeable future ever join neither NATO nor the EU.

The Ukrainian army is being finished off and the govt in Kiev will likely succumb to a popular vote and be replaced by one more willing to recognise the "rights" of its Russian citizenship and the benefits of neutrality.

Ukraine has lost a proportion of its population of ordinary Ukrainians, a lot of infrastructure, Crimea and Donbas. The longer the conflict persists, the less of these three things will remain. Ukraine may lose all access to the Black Sea and four more oblasts, while the west may join Poland and the Baltics.

Not only will neither side accept defeat in this proxy war, but imho imposing a defeat would certainly provoke a nuclear retaliation. This war is composed of a series of escalating steps with no currently visible "off ramp" and as there's no way to eliminate second-strike capability, that means gradual escalation will lead eventually to nuclear oblivion.

Surely there must be some adults who can take charge and lead the belligerents to a place for mutual understanding, facesaving and sensible talks?

Kennedy and Kruschev defused their threat of mutually assured destruction by removing nuclear missiles from Turkey and Cuba, so that neither superpower had nuclear weapons close to the other’s strategic command centres.

While it is startling to discover that there is no negotiation currently taking place between the two sides, at least Russia is communicating its nuclear strategy, intentions and capabilities. That could be the foundation for negotiation, a new security frame work for Europe (which includes 80% of the Russian population), China and America and if not multilateral disarmament, at least fresh progress towards the doctrine of no first use. 

Now, though, it is much more difficult to trust the governments in Kiev and Washington.  President Biden's intention to weaken Russia by funding and fueling the regime in Kiev has failed, sanctions have failed, Russia is proving to be much more capable than expected, and both Europe and the US are out of materiel, while Russia is prepared for a long war and increased the logistics of its conventional and nuclear weapons systems.

There are no Kennedys or Kruschevs on the scene today. The West's leadership should be, was, the world's leadership but has in my opinion very clearly failed, many argue its time has come. It proves itself not fit to manage this or any of the catastrophes it has created for the world. The alternative to overthrow of the existing American Order is reform of its rules and institutions. We want one rule of international law and one set of inclusive institutions accountable to its membership. While the UK is lost to America's neocon army, could France and Germany, or India and Turkey, open lines of communication?

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