MESSAGE TO ZELINSKY

13 May 2023

Message to the current govt of Ukraine

==========

Perhaps if you had implemented Minsk II, or just not shelled the Donbas for eight years, or simply allowed the Russian majority in the East - build by Russia 250 years ago - to live their lives without forbidding them their language and culture.

If you'd shown respect for the diversity that was your citizenship.

But you behaved to antagonise and humiliate, you ignored UN resolutions, you kow-towed to the Americans' love of war when peace was offered you.

You threatened your neighbour's security, his existence even.

And now you're surprised when your big neighbour finally loses his patience with you and moves in to protect his own? Really?

Tell this to the families of the 250,000 who've lost their loved ones and breadwinners. You sacrifice your citizens and soon you will lose the country you say you so love. I don't believe anyone who loved their country and their people could be so foolish.

Very foolish. Very foolish indeed. You are a very foolish, dishonest and corrupt leader.

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IS THIS UKRAINE'S COUNTER OFFENSIVE?

13 May 2023

Ref Bahkmut these last couple of days.

What happened was that there was clearly a Ukrainian attack. The Russian defence ministry says that the Ukrainians were repelled. The attacks seem to have been on a fairly large scale. They were probably more than probing-with-force attacks.

But if this was an attempted offensive then even if we allow for a degree of exaggeration from the Russian side, the offensive - if this was intended to be the start of some kind of Ukrainian defensive around Bahkmut -  the offensive appears at least for the moment to have been unsuccessful. The Ukrainians were pushed back and the Russian army defenses have held so far at least.

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UKRAINE AS PRACTISE BOXING RING

12 May 2023

Many readers wonder why the Russians haven't blown the bridges across the dnieper, as a defensive measure.

This weekend past, it looks like the Russians did blow some bridges, those connecting the South of Ukraine to Moldova and Romania. Presumably this is to stop any NATO troop movement into South East Ukraine.

Then as to the Dnieper bridges up to Dnipro and Kyiv. I guess the Russians have left them in place because they are waiting for the Ukrainian offensive. As the Ukrainian army crosses the river, so sufficient numbers at least, then the Russians could at this point blow the bridges to prevent retreat and kill the trapped Ukrainians.

Wasn't this a bit like what they have just done in Bakmut, their "meat grinder" strategy to slowly efface the enemy army? They left some roads open so that the Ukrainians could continue to file into the city and as they did so, the Russians killed them.

So seems like the Russians are playing a long game of protecting against a NATO invasion, trapping and wiping out the entire Ukrainian army; and there'll be times when the Russians withdraw in order to suck the Ukrainians in, then close the trap again and kill them.

So the new map, as conceived by Russian strategists, seems to include Odessa. Perhaps from the Russian point of view ideally the border would run from Kiev, South West to Moldova, to include at least Transnistria, leaving Lviv as capital of a client state that buffers Poland, a dmz to a very aggressive Poland or the New Ukraine as a place where West could meet East to fight, a boxing ring really for military training and competitions.

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TRUMP WANTS DEEP SPENDING CUTS

10 May 2023

Trump calls for US debt default in absence of ‘massive’ spending cuts - https://on.ft.com/44SnrRm via @FT

What areas can morally and practically be cut? 

Maybe focus on the cash retianed by those top te...how much of a dent would it make?

How to control congresspple and senators and get them of lobby interest bribes?

Well of course he is right. The US has no credibility with non-Western gov.ts who are welling out of the dollar and using their own currencies for mutual trade. Plus, if this debt isn't managed by the Treasury, it will be managed by the markets - it is what is happening and the US is heading for bankrupties way beyond the banking sector and a hard-landing recession.

The Fortune 500 is America's and probably the world's largest companies. Of the 500, the top ten have more cash than the bottom 400.  This tells how close to banktuptcy is America and with it Europe, Japan and Austastralasia.

Higher interest rates necessitate restructuring, which even then companies do not have the cash to pay. Plus, inflation will work through to reduced revenues and profits.

We will know it's a recession when unemployment starts to rise. At this point, the Fed will pivot - ie stop tightening, start printing and lower interest rates. You can guess the rest...

What areas can morally and practically be cut? Surely not Medicare, Social Security, Pensions? So where to find and how much?

Maybe focus on the cash retianed by those top te...how much of a dent would it make?

How to control congresspple and senators and get them of lobby interest bribes?

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9 MAY IS VICTORY DAY

9 May 2023

*Russia's contribution

27 million russians died to save europe from the nazis

Cannot overlook that, all praise Russia on its Victory Day 9 May.

I watched the sad pantomime when the Russian ambassador for Poland was prevented from laying a wreath at a cemetery to commemorate victory in WW2. I assume this demonstration was sanctioned by the Polish gov. They take every opportunity to provoke and humiliate Russia. Until the Ukraine war I didn't appreciate how many European countries.....Poland and all the Baltic states, Finland? .....hate Russia. It's a racial, maybe religious, thing, why hate the Russians? Is it the people, or their elite, who do the hating?

Nothing will change. Poland sees itself as a pre eminent European military power and hankers after some glory period from centuries past.

Likewise the Baltic states.

I guess Finland still thinks of the 1930s war and territory lost. It's not very West European. 

Frankly, for Russia to keep diplomatic ties with these countries is a waste of time. The Ukraine war has given them the excuse to be open on how they see Russia. Would we tolerate such racism in London, for example?

*Cultural genocide

Perhaps only oldies pause and think of the dead, the horrors of the war that occured in Russia. In the west it's ignored and time for a joke. If I read what's happening in the Baltics and Poland correctly, they are removing any trace of the Russians and what they accomplished in WW2. De-russification its called. As above, Russia is a civilised culture and should just cut off diplomatic relations from its more atavistic neighbours. There is no point.

*For the record

"As of 2021, there were nearly 900,000 ethnic Russians in the three countries, having declined from ca 1.7 million in 1989" Wiki.

Latvia is 25% Russian, half the pple living in Riga the capital are Russian. Estonia is a quarter Russian. This was Soviet Russification policy. Why do they now hate Russia? Do they, or is it just the elite?

While elites generally want to expand their power and wealth, generally they thrive on war and stop at nothing Ordinary folk - who stand to lose their loved ones, homes and jobs, prefer peace, freedom and stability.

*MSM

So a lot to evaluate when opening the newspapers or TV. I'm cautious of rhe stuff I read, it is largely propaganda to keep me on board and indoors.

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THE TRUE STORY OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE (PURE EVIL)

7 May 2023

This is the 1992 NATO expansion plan, by Brezinski, naming Ukraine...in 1992.

https://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/9709brzezinski.html

And here is the true story of NATO enlargement, very clearly told by Jeffrey Sachs  : offset 6'30" - 25'.

https://youtu.be/k_uyfb6OyZ8

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LAMB TAGINE IN CASABLANCA

5 May 2023

Looks absolutely delicious, I want some!!!

Lamb in Asia comes frozen from Australia and is not so tender. The tagine is a slow cook, so should produce melt-in-the-mouth meat full of aromatics.

In Morocco round about 10 in the morning, all the little street cafes would start parking small single-service tagines on beds of glowing carbon embers on the street outside the restau and begin the slow cook to lunch at midday.

So yummy.

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INVESTORS IN EURODOLLAR LAND ARE RUNNING FOR THE HILLS

5 May 2023

Since the GFC, QE tripled America's debt while keeping payments of interest flat.

Now the skies are full of chickens and black swans. America - by debt, inflation, inequality, social & political division, and war ( physical and economic) - is a complete catastrophe - as predicted here since a long time ago. 

Surely they can't be thinking of printing again? Yet cuts to social security and Medicare would send the people back to the White House. 

Already markets are panicking. The coupon for short-term US Treasuries is higher than corporate bonds and three-month T-bill rates are higher than one-month - this is markets saying they want more to hold the dollar through this debt-ceiling crisis. This really disorients calculations using the once "risk-free" rate. As proof, Standard & Poor’s have dropped America’s rating a notch - what if other rating agencies follow?

The entire world economy is built on credit and the starting point is the US Treasuries so-called risk-free rate. This is a bit more than just migrating the software code to new parameters. 

Biden and Trump have said they won't cut. Yellen at the Treasury is down to her last 30 billion and will have to prioritise interest payments over welfare cheques, swelling the Trumpist camps in the barrios. Powell at the Fed pushes forward with hikes, resists "the Fed pivot", continues to defend his mandate on "stable" prices and employment - is inflation really cooling? Pushing the workforce into unemployment to reduce wage and consumption demand doesn't seem to be working - is this because fewer and fewer are active in the labour market?

The RoW (ie eurodollar land) knows all this and is running for the hills!

Have you heard of Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio? ... Coming up next ...

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DEBT, GOVERNMENT AND BANKING, 13TH RECESSION HAS STARTED

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STATE OF THE ECONOMY

3 May 2023

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/02/half-of-americas-banks-are-already-insolvent-credit-crunch/

AEP's articles always entertain like puppy dogs, but seem all over the place to me, it's v hard to find the logical thread, although only an economist could really pick them apart, so I'm left scratching my head - the language tickles but, you're left none the wiser.

If there is a thread to the article, then it's that half of American banks are underwater, effect; Fed over-stimulation of the economy, the cause.

But this is just not true. Those banks are only underwater because of rising interest rates which have lowered the value of safe government bonds *but* at maturity date there is no such problem.

You can't say it's a problem caused by the dollar being the world's reserve currency because QE all started off in Japan and the Euro is similarly affected. 

Obviously lending out the same depositor's dollar multiple times - what is called fractional banking - can only magnify the vulnerabilities, but then what is a capitalist financial system about if it isn't this?

If interest rates were determined by the market, and not by the fed, then where would we be? Well, rates would be high - maybe 12% - ie borrowing would be expen, there'd be little money for investment and consumption spending, and so we'd be living in an economy with little growth and a lot of unemployment.

So the fed artificially stimulates by buying up assets by QE or OMO, which are the same thing more or less, and this reduces the cost of money below the market rate and increases the money supply. 

When all is said and done, this is bound to lead to inflation and devaluation of the currency.

What happens as best I can understand, is that

1. rising interest rates kill off people borrowing money and it starts in the housing sector.

2. So if the housing sector is stamped on, then demand suffers,

3. and if demand suffers and money is expensive then profits shrink,

4. and if companies see that their profits are shrinking they lay people off, and you get rising unemployment and falling stock markets 

...and all of that is the road to what is called a recession.

... but if it's managed properly without excessive government interference, then it's just the business cycle.

https://youtu.be/PzCVj7SOx_I

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HOW TO FINANCE YOUR NEW STARTUP

2 March 2023

1. HOW TO FINANCE YOUR NEW STARTUP

2.CHECKLIST - SHOULD I INVEST IN A STARTUP?

1. HOW TO FINANCE YOUR NEW STARTUP

So you've got this great idea for a new startup but unfortunately you haven't got any customers because they don't know about the product or service you're selling and anyway you don't have a workshop or offices because you can't afford it ... what do you do?

Let's take the example of a company called Resi which is based in Brixton and will rehab your house for a fee and maybe even run the builders.

Resi's founders know there's a huge demand out there, but unfortunately that demand doesn't know about them! And anyway, where can they locate their staff and how can they take on a lease on a building when they have no track record of income or no startup capital enough to convince a landlord they can pay the rent ?

We will talk about two things here in this case that will solve Resi's problem:

-advertising inventory

-convertible loan notes.

Resi can borrow money to build its business - take out a bank loan, or issue bonds (a bond is a loan, but you can sell it on) ; or it can sell shares in its to-be-created new company. The company may exist, and even have some money - "retained earnings" - but not enough to get going.

It wants the money to build a bigger business to sell more!

There's this clever way for a start-up which has no credibility and finds it difficult to borrow money. It's called a Convertible Loan Note or convertible debt. All it is, is just an agreement with an investor to lend the startup money and the debt, or the debt-plus-interest, builds up, and at a later date this debt can be converted into shares in the company, once the revenue starts rolling in and everyone can agree the value of the company.

ITV has said they will lend Resi money, but they want Resi to use some of that money to buy advertising on ITV. That's the deal.

What is it that Resi will buy from ITV? They will buy "advertising inventory". Now what in the world is advertising inventory? It's the amount of space that the publisher - in this case ITV - has to sell. It's all its space, beit on a printed page, or a page on a website, or air time on radio or TV (linear or streaming).

Working out how much advertising costs - how much inventory Resi will need to get its customers and at what cost -  is quite complicated, but you can imagine that the important things to valuing the advertising inventory are how many users view the advert, how many click on the advert, how many fill out a form ... that kind of thing. So you can calculate how much revenue the advertiser, Resi, can expect to generate from the advertising that the publisher, ITV, sells....and so value the inventory.

It pays for the advertising from the loan, but the loan will be on very favourable terms as Resi has promised to buy advertising from ITV with it, or some of it.

So in summary, the company Resi wants to grow fast. It needs capital to start up. It buys advertising inventory from ITV using money that ITV has loaned it, in the form of a convertible loan that at some point, under agreed terms, ITV can convert into shares in the company.

For more info on Resi's idea:

https://resi.co.uk/about

https://www.itvmedia.co.uk/new-to-tv/itvadventures/itv-adventures-invest

They are located in Brixton:

020 8068 4811

https://maps.app.goo.gl/nsLpnqa4g5GhzYmm6

https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ITV-PLC-4004488/news/ITV-invests-in-architectural-technology-company-Resi-Design-43120156/

27 April 2023

2. CHECKLIST - SHOULD I INVEST IN A STARTUP?

Funding rounds, seed capital

We looked at the products and its competitors

- functions, cf with peers, place in industry, sector

We parsed the marketing and legal comm

- defining terms, taking out emotional appeals, logic, rhetoric

We examined the accoumts and some ratios

- price to sales, prospective earnings, runway, return on capital employed

We cobsidered your portfolio, your investmet strategy and some measures 

- risk/reward, relative weighting, diversification

We did what we could with the time and data available. And made a reasoned decision.

What do you think?

Run through that checklist above and write down your argument on each of the measures...as far as possible.

You wear two hats: you are the fund manager for your portfolio; you are also the customer.

So, write to your customer (who is also you!) a note explaining the action you take.

Pretty soon, you'll have quite a history - a reort each time you buy or sell, with the data on various measures that is driving your decision.

This is how to learn.

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