Sunday, 19 February 2023

WHAT DOES VICTORY IN UKRAINE LOOK LIKE?


19 February 2023

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban cautioned Europe on Saturday that it could sleepwalk into a direct armed confrontation with Russia by sending increasingly deadly weapons to Ukraine.

https://sputniknews.com/20230218/hungarys-orban-says-europe-may-end-up-sending-troops-to-ukraine-1107582191.html

"If you supply weapons, provide satellite data, train soldiers of one of the warring parties and have its entire government on your payroll, while imposing sanctions on the other party, whatever you call it but you are at war," Orban said.

At what point does the SMO end and Russia says that now the two parties are in a direct conflict ie at war with each other?

The debate at the moment is about what victory looks like.  Is it Zelensky's defn : Ukraine has reoccupied all land within its internationally defined legal border, war damages to cover rebuilding, Putin at The Hague?

Or is it something less emotional, more realisable : country divided like Korea with DMZ, the EU admits Ukraine and rebuilds its part of the country plus Ukraine gets security guarantees though not NATO membership per se, forget The Hague.

Could Russia be balkanised? 
Could Russia become like France : has an imperial, militaristic and colonial past ; but is also an "open society"(*)? 
Could Asia be flipped 180° on the vertical along the Mackinder line?

There are wars where one side soundly beats the other...then you get an insurgency...and a counter-insurgency (Iraq).

There are wars that trundle forever, dites "wars of attrition", where each grinds down the other and the host country is wrecked, till one side runs out of willpower or of ammo (Afghanistan). 

The worry here is of a third type of war, a war  of obliteration where the host country is the battlefield and one side obliterates some or all of that fated country (Ukraine?).

Maybe America is stocking up for a post-nuclear Ukraine. Who know? Noone knows, not at the present, not yet. Just keep shovelling in the billions, pile on the sanctions and wait till the supply lines break or there's an "accident" too many (Nord Stream).

Karl Popper defined the open society as one "in which an individual is confronted with personal decisions" as opposed to a "magical or tribal or collectivist society."

He considered that only democracy provides an institutional mechanism for reform and leadership change without the need for bloodshed, revolution or coup d'etat.

Wednesday, 8 February 2023

WHY AMERICA'S STRATEGY IS DOOMED

8 February 2022

This war with Russia goes back a long way. Why and how to find a permanent peace?

There was The Great Schism even, that's how far back. But the basic fundamental truth is (my opinion) found in the geography. Russia is a huge plain without natural borders, hence v likely it will have one regime, be one country ... one empire in a sense, as fighting originally united all the tribes.

Russia from the Urals to the Atlantic? That is the threat - a land power against a sea power.

As the plain drops down into eastern Europe, there are a series of natural breaks - Baltic Sea, Carpathian mountains, to name but two of nine. So this separates Russia, the country, from Europe.

But those natural breaks, or obstacles, have  gaps - through which Russia has been invaded over 50 times... even Canada has invaded Russia.

This is why Russia seeks (historically) to expand westward - it is to take and to plug those gaps, for its security.

This makes Russia's "near abroad" the most likely theatre for war in the world.

Bearing this in mind, personally I would favour Russia joining western military and economic alliances. But alas, America, Europe's "protector" won't have this and prefers war.

Why does America want war (when Europe wants peace.. at least, its interests lie in peace)? To weaken all potential rivals : Europe (Russia and Germany) today ; China tomorrow ; (yesterday was the Middle East and they messed that up too).

So I don't have a lot of confidence in America's ability to solve this problem. NATO advancement is now about cutting Russia off from its warm water ports, stopping Russian-speakers from cultural assembly and regime change in Moscow with breaking Russia up into small states that can be divide and rule.
None of these three prongs will work - we'd all be incinerated first!

The fundamental cause of this war can be found in geography, the politics of security (International Relations), and America's answer - to nobble all rivals - is OK, but not by a strategy of war. War does not suit Europe. But peace in Europe does not suit America and this is an absolutely ruthless war with no winners.

Tuesday, 7 February 2023

PREPARING TO CONCEDE UKRAINIAN TERRITORY

7 February 2023

The reshuffle in Kiev began with the replacement of the comm director a couple of weeks back.
The new MoDefence is much closer to Washington.
Is America, who manages this war, replacing tje Zelensky govt with its own? ...And Zelensky?
The Americans have been telling Zelensky to pull out of Bakmut before it's lost and the best Ukraonian troops with it.
There's also been multiple warnings - from RAND, CSNA, Wadington Post articles...ieAmerican advisors and the Pentagon - that this war is draining The West's resources at a time when it should be preparing for the real threat.
And thirdly, plans have been floated amongst the Am foreign policy elite to partition up Ukraine. Only Blinken and Nuland oppose.

Sunday, 5 February 2023

THE CASE FOR NUCLEAR IN UKRAINE

5 February 2023



Nuclear will happen if Russia concludes it will otherwise cease to exist. This would be in Ukraine itself, only in Ukraine, and in this case the West would not respond with nuclear, imho.

Unless America re-prioritises this conflict (on its own initiative, America withdraws or negotiates), there is the risk that America use nuclear. This could provoke a Russian nuclear response outside Ukraine, and we'd be in WW3 and incineration.

An intriguing possibility is if America could take out all Russian nuclear before Russia had time to respond. Intriguing, but impossible.

Neither side can, currently, accept a defeat; plus, there is no "off-ramp" or way out without loss of face.

The most promising conclusion would be a negotiated split of Ukraine between Russia, Ukraine and possibly Poland. Zelensky - front-line responsibility for the conduct of the war - would have to go, a verifiable neutrality with balance of power installed, and very sadly Ukraine would have to accept the loss or injury of perhaps 200,000 of its citizens, as well as a nation-state with rump-staus only and probably dependent on Moscow.

What to do?

Saturday, 4 February 2023

A LESSON IN FLATTERY

4 February 2023

https://youtu.be/xwPq7xAKi9I


Fully agree with Tucker's analysis and conclusions. The way he sensationalises is so funny and that is why people watch him.

After all, what has he just said?

 Boris went to Washington to promote a world war, but refused an invitation to appear on Tucker's show because he is afraid of the questions he'd face.

It would be a war for democracy except the people haven't been consulted and don't want it.


 Consider the position of Lindsay Grahame: a neo-con on foreign policy and an extreme liberal on immigration. (A neo liberal is a no-borders virtue-signaler - the "neo" part - who puts everyone first irrespective of where, which nation-state, on the planet they live.)

Grahame successfully argued for sending Abram tanks to Ukraine and now wants the US to send F16 fighter jets. He also opposed Trump on the wall.

Sending F16 fighter jets would mean America becoming directly involved in a war with a nuclear-armed superpower, and from there it's a short step to exchanges of nuclear missiles and thereafter ... oblivion.


 Now here is something that needs explaining : how can LG be an extreme neocon and an extreme liberal, yet also be  Trump's no.1 supporter in the Senate and campaign for and with Trump?

MAGA Trump, who pulls America out of wars and attacks NATO, America's creature for making war ; and Trump who wants a wall built and who believes in national borders. 

And the answer is that Grahame believes Trump will get the Republican nomination and be the next POTUS, and through Ottoman-style flattery of telling the ruler what he wants to hear, thriugh flattery Grahame seeks to subvert Trump's policies. As he did with Biden's on sending in the Abrams.


 Prefer direct assault and honest crticism to falsehood, flattery and subversion.


Friday, 27 January 2023

RETIREMENT PLAN - THE SPREADSHEET YOU NEED TO MAKE YOUR LIFE EASY

27 January 2023

PUT IN TO TAKE OUT

What is the one number you'd really like to know for a happy retirement? Yup, it is how much should I tuck away each month - not percentages or formulae, just the number please?

THIS NOTE IS ABOUT

Financial planning is boring but unavoidable. So start here. 
Plus, a note on how to build a neat and tidy spreadsheet.

GOAL

people typically aim for somewhere between half and two-thirds of their final salary as their retirement income. 

NEEDS

By the time they retire, many people have paid off their mortgage, and their children are financially independent, so their expenses are lower. 

RESOURCES

The state pension should also cover at least a portion of needs, while the same level of gross income goes further because you are no longer making National Insurance and pension contributions. 

POT SIZE OBJECTIVE

First, work out how much you need after the state pension. You could multiply your planned expenditure in retirement by 25, which should give you the size of pot you need to be able to safely withdraw 4 per cent a year. 

For example, if you estimate you will spend £25,000 a year on top of the state pension, you will require a retirement fund of £625,000. 

 (Not included here is your investment strategy, ie how you make best use of your resources to achieve your goal...wow, is that complicated! 

 But at least, make a start by knowing where you are today, where you want to be, and how much to "pay yourself" each month to get there.)

Unless your investments perform poorly or you live to a very old age, following this 4% rule should enable you to leave some of your pension pot to your children.

FORMULAE

A good way to amass a sizeable pension pot is to contribute half your age as a percentage of your earnings every year when you start making contributions – 10 per cent of your gross salary when you are 20, increasing to 15 per cent when you are 30 and so on, including employer contributions.

People who leave retirement saving until later in life may need to work for longer or to release equity from their homes.

 ("Downsizing" is where you sell up and move to a smaller property. This releases equity which can be used, as we get older, for medical care.)

BUILD YOUR SPREADSHEET

Where are you today with your savings plan and where do you need to be? Use compound interest. Here are the basic steps (spreadsheet columns) and inputs for the calculations. Then compound up, year by year, from now to retirement. Et voilà, you've made your plan!

1. Needs - eg 2/3 thirds of final salary

2. Resources - state pension

3. Size of pot required

4. Spreadsheet scenarios - annual savings, number of years, rate of growth.
 
Four key adjustments to keep in mind when you build your spreadsheet.

5. Returns - on long-term average, the stock market has returned 7% a year. The future is less rosy, count 4%, with dividends re-invested, from your investment strategy.

6. Inflation – your withdrawals will need to increase in line with inflation to maintain the same living standards through retirement. 

7. Income tax - tax applies to your retirement income, so work out both the gross and net annual income you want to aim for.

8. Fees - remember to account for fees :   investment, platform and drawdown fees will eat into your returns.


(NOTE ON HOW TO BUILD A SPREADSHEET THAT WORKS

A well designed spreadsheet has three parts : header, detail, working storage.

Header - a very few rows to setup and summarise the results. The title of the sheet, the input parameters and their starting values, summary results.

Detail - the columns work left to right across the process, from beginning to end, each column doing rolling calculations - the rows are runs of the process eg one line for each year.

Working storage (optional) - maybe you need to do intermediate calculations for a step, but they'd clutter the detail line ... so put these sub-steps off the page to the right.)

Saturday, 21 January 2023

GEORGIO

Georgio is seeking the voice of the island, ie the voice of the people of Cyprus. He finds what is dear to them

Family
Traditions
Sea
Nature
Religion
Food
Costume

And in his own way and style, he expresses this. He is a conduit.

His paintings are more naive than childish. He is not a trained artist, he is self-taught. He is honest, he expresses what he sees, for you to see through his eyes.

EXHIBITION BLURB:

The George Pol. Georghiou - Timeless Cyprus exhibition has been organised on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the artist's death. The title, suggested by Georghiou's family, reflects the essence of Georghiou's body of work, almost completely immersed in Cyprus, its people and its history. Far from reducing his work to simplistic representations of mores or folklorist references, Georghiou opted to traverse the island's historical and cultural pathways to gain insight into the present. He sought to trace, understand, deepen, interpret and assert what he considered to be the indigenous voice of the island. In his work, he employed piercing clarity and knowledge in order to elicit time-resistant spiritual values and ways of life, as well as meaningful symbols semantically interwoven with certain fixed coordinates of his country's character.

Georghiou lived and produced the largest volume of his oeuvre on an island colonised by a Western country during a period when peoples across the world were awakening to claims of independence and freedom. The overall ideological climate infused his art. Through his work, he sought to assert an identity based on the local element. The choice he made is a token of love for his homeland, a place with a long, active past that set the scene for a dignified present.

Georghiou's creative dialogue with international artistic heritage, in tandem with the ecumenical values that permeate his art, render his work simultaneously indigenous and global.

Wednesday, 18 January 2023

BYZANTIUM

On Byzantium

https://youtu.be/2JHCfe86A8U

Fascinating. Right from the beginning where Paul Cooper tells us how the Mediterranean Sea was created (offset Part I, 8 minutes).

To his explanation of how the Eastern wing survived for  another thousand years after the fall of Rome.

And America has managed 80 years and looks to be on its way out, having learnt nothing of the power of diplomacy from the rulers of Byzantium.


MODERN LOVERS

https://youtu.be/VXMTG8prP7s


why are relationships seemingly so hard for so many people when it's the thing we need the most to feel alive to feel happy and feel connected?

Love and work are the two pillars of our lives.

The simple feeling of loving and feeling loved is actually a very complex thing just as nature is very complex, so too is human nature very complex. I'm a boomer and in my life I have seen Human Nature change at its fastest pace ever recorded. Human relationships today are certainly more complex and often more painful than in the past we should try and understand why this is what has happened?

We should start to find an answer by comparing relationships in our modern developed advanced economy with the way people live in more traditional societies.


In more traditional societies, relationships are clearly codified, there are clear rules, there are roles and roles have obligations. There's a tight structure that you can't get out of, that tells you clearly your place "at table", who you are where you belong, where you are rooted and what's expected of you and you don't have too ask too many questions about eg whose career matters more? who's going to wake up to feed the baby? who has a right to demand sex? 

Everybody - every husband -  knows exactly what they can ask and expect from their wife .

And the wife knows exactly what she should not tell her husband!

And the children know their place at table and their sibling rank.

And same for interactions between adults.

Life was highly codified and regulated for people. You knew exactly what you'd be doing - on for example a Sunday, you would have a family meal together, you would visit the grandparents, you would go to church, or maybe it's the mosque on a Friday.

 Furthermore, everyone knew this and it didn't need to be explained, it's just what people did, they didn't ask any questions, they just did it, "that's the way we do things here round here", that is just what happened.

And why do we do it that way? That's because we've always done it that way and what would the neighbours say if we didn't? So it's a community of narrow streets and close habitations where everyone watches over everyone else and there is what is called high social control and conformity. 

In my university days, I lived in a village like that, Great Tay, with its church, its pub, its post office, its round about ... maybe a bit more than this..  and there was also the just-built "new estate" for commuters, the "blow-ins", but you get the general idea. 

 My life, my love life, was spent in a traditional village where everyone knew everyone and no one was alone; while my working life was a world away at the university where only the common cause of of education and the student bar saved us from a terrible sense of anomie.

Today, we live pretty anonymous lives, we don't know what's going on in the neighbour's house and we may not even know that our best friends are breaking up and a couple is falling apart. And why?

SHEENA

I lived there in the village, a tight-knit community, with my first girlfriend, Sheena, who was admired for her outrageous non-conformity, but who was also as a consequence an outcast. And in fact Sheena went on to have Nathan, a black baby, shocking the whole village....you can imagine! And she went on further to be a single mother and advocate for womens' rights. 

She was what today we would recognise as a little bit of a narcissist, but at the time she would entertain and shock us all with her imaginative humour and stories, her desinvolte as regards sexual matters, her disordered life. And we wouldn't worry too much about how little she cared about any of this disaporoval, ostracism and chaos, or what people thought of her  She showed little interest in the lives of people not from the village, leaving me puzzled though not dismayed, indifferent rather than saddened. I was from the university and it didn't matter much to me as I was part of many bigger groups of friends. That is what it means to be young.

I was living a life in the village where everyone knew what was going on in each other's houses and no one was alone, where noone had reason to question who they were or what they should be doing. This society of tight knots contrasted with a life of loose ends and frayed university networks, with people from all over the country, from varied social backgrounds and classes, thrown together; where meetings could be fleeting, commitments transactional; where you might experience the loss of someone for whom you had intense feelings albethey shallow feelings of youth, from one day to the next, without warning or explanation: none given, none expected.

MY PARENTS

My parents were from the Greatest Generation, they understood little and said less. They were born during The Roaring Twenties, boom time, came of age during the Great Depression, bust, and participated as as young adults in World War II, which kicked off the American Order and digital technologies. 

So for them, econonic, political, social and technological upheavals, not to mention Hollywood and comic books, jazz and swing, and visits by the new messiah, Superman. Most formative in my father's life, though he has never spoken a word of it, was the war and the rationing that followed. "Money was tight", he would say. My mother was an air raid warden during the blitz. People from this generation supposedly got through the hardships of the Great Depression with an ability to know how to survive and to make do on shortages and solve problems that the welfare state had not yet been born to take over. 

These experiences made for a conservative, responsible people, trustful of the government that had coordinated them into winning the world war. My father was reasonably proficient on the portable computer.








CYPRIOT SALAD

18 January 2023

I like the salad and tahini very much.

 Cucumber, tomato, olives, cos lettuce, feta cheese, red onion, red peppers, dressing (olive oil and lemon juice), herbs.
https://youtu.be/0N6h_m5uD78

ELEFTHERIA SQUARE, NICOSIA

18 January 2023

Nicosia is "the last divided capital in Europe". It is a city with 16th century city walls and a moat and a new park in the dry moat.

Amongst the many modern buildings of Nicosia today, there is Eleftheria square, known as Freedom Park. Freedom meaning freedom from invaders, notably the Turks, and the possibility for the Greek Cypriot population to live an independent life. But also, freedom in the sense of one unified island where Greek and Turkish Cypriots live togethet under one integrated, autonomous Cypriot government.  

This park was designed by famous Iraqi architect Zaha Hadid on the site of a previous park. The purpose of the park is to celebrate the theme of unity, as described above. 

The new square is a sinewy concrete landscape of six mini waterways that draw together to create strange points of "intensity" where seating and flower-beds and sculptures are found. These lines come together under a canopy of motorway-type arches that support a pedestrian walkway above. This bridge joins the medieval city* to the barrio of outer districts. There are two sleek and swish cafés.There are stairs up giving access to the bus station.

There is also a giant cypress cone sculpture ornament, displaying its scales alternately in corten and galvanised steel, telling us the two peoples can live together in peace as they did before. This sculpture, interestingly, is the work of a student of computational design. (The Gherkin too?)

Invaded like Byzantium, and for the same reason: protection against an Ottoman Turk invasion and Cyprus suffered the same fate as Constantinople: defeat.

Nicosia was in divided in 1974 when Turks invaded again, now "to protect their own" (today, we think of Russia invading Ukraine).

The architect's idea is to make a beautiful park that reveals clearly and makes stand out the city walls, an important part of Nicosia's true identity; and to mix this with a futuristic vision that can re-unite the two halves of the city, and its two peoples The hope is that more areas of the moat will follow and be made into green space, and that all these parks will join up to encircle the city, replacing the UN green line through the middle of Nicosia, with a green all-embracing band, sharing health and nature, thereby reuniting the city under a banner of common humanity.

NOTES
* The medieval city was extended during the 20th century beyond its circular Venetian walls and the old town within them was then rebuilt.


....at least, that is how I read it.

That is the vision!