WHAT IS "THE GREAT REPLACEMENT"?

25 June 2022

You see in France that Eric Zemmour made a great start in the Presidential election and got 18% and then dropped down through the floor through 7 to 4% in the second round and failed to win a single seat in the legislative elections.

He made many mistakes in his campaign, but the mainstream media are trying to get him to apologise for his saying that the greatest issue facing France is an identity issue and is not a cost of living issue.

His party is called Reconquest and his issue is called The Great Replacement. What is it about?

It is not some conspiracy theory where there are plotters who are moving in their people from south of the Mediterranean and the Sahel to take our places in France. No.

It is an observation. An observation that there are more and more women in the streets wearing the hijab and men dressed in jelabas. That if you look at the Register of births marriages and deaths, you see that those dying are called Pierre and Lucette and those being born are called Mohammed and Fatihah. That the average number of births to Muslim families is greater than to classic French families.

There's also a regret or sadness at the cultural loss that can be epitomised in the replacement of boeuf bourguignon by couscous.

And then there's that disgraceful story of the Stade de France where the English got blamed for Arab scum misbehaviour. They live off welfare and get poor results at school and in the workforce. They threaten our security. We are heading for civil war.

This is more than simple political manipulation: it indicates that politicians are afraid of reality. That's a very good point.

So Eric zemmour is projecting these trends into a future 5 or 10 years away and that's what the great replacement is about.

But why didn't the French share his opinion? The answer is that the short-term drove out the long-term in the shape of a) the war in Ukraine (prior to the Invasion, Zemmour was sympathetic to Putin's arguments and he also did not think it right that France take in refugees); and b) the cost of living crisis (that resulted from the war as well as from covid). 

And that seems like a very good point to me, and this is the problem with democracy. You have the technocrats - efficient, fair, emotionless - who assure continuity and maturity of direction from one electoral term to the next. Then you have the politicians who are prisoners really of increasingly diverse groupuscules of public opinion and powerless against global forces for change.  And finally, you have a public who can only think of their short-term troubles. But politicians overwhelmed by powerful global and domestic forces are powerless to represent them, they system loses credibility, winning your case becomes more important than preserving the system by respecting the majority.

That is how civilisations collapse - they crumble from the inside out.

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THIS PROVOKED INVASION

Very clear how America provoked Russia into this invasion, leaving Russia no alternative possibly trapping Russia and tricking it into invading.

It is very plain that this war is the result of: 

- NATO advances, breaking 1991 US promises & naturally perceived by Russia as threats to its security

- Failure of esp Fr and Ge to uphold the Minsk agreements devolving powers to the Eastern regions and

Kiev, armed continuously by the West since 2014, shelling Donbas since that time and esp heavy shelling in the days and weeks prior to Russia's "SMO", the final provocation.

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UKRAINE: THE AIMS, THE OPTIONS

22 June 2022

America seeks to weaken Russia, ok, that's published fact. We have your RAND_RR3063 and more.

But Europe too - as a potential rival, esp Ge with Ru, America wants to be sure it's Master of the Universe.

 Also :

make Europe dependent on NATO (run by the DoD - they silenced Fr n Ge at Budapest) and on Am arms; 

and as a middle-ranker, without a military in reality, and heavily pressured by America, Eu is unable to think and develop a strategy of its own, in its own interests; 

you could argue this is all  America's answer to the rise of China, don't you think?, Europe will follow America into the ultimate fires of rhe last conflagration!!!

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FORWARD EARNINGS AND STOCK RETURNS

MY favourite SUS has really let me down. It's a small company, probably little or no access to capital markets, attracting customers for its loans through attractive rates, great service and superior debt portfolio management.

Most commentators are convinced we are heading into a recession.  A recession stemming from the enormous debt levels resulting fromsuccessive QE cycles, each lesssuccessful than the last.

To which must be added infltion, coming out of covid, and this war.

Central Banks are raising rates to reduce demand to kerb inflation. And at the same time, they are not renewing QE, reducing public debt and private liquidity.

So consumers and companies are hit by rising costs, falling real wages and bottom line, and recessions reduce revenues.

I'm just wondering if forward earnings estimates need to be quite radically revised.

And whether more emphasis should be given to the future as earnings are key to dividends and share prices and future earnings are likely significantly different from the past.

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RUSSIA, THE INTERNATIONAL PARIAH - REALLY?

16 June 2022

Many of the commentators on the situation in Ukraine seem to think that Russia has been kicked out of the international system, that it's a pariah and that it will never be re-admitted.

Fact is, the Russian and European economies have been very closely integrated for decades and the proof is the squealing you can hear from France and Germany now that they have to kow-tow to American sanctions.

But reality is that the entrepreneurs in the small and medium-sized Russian companies and the managers in the larger companies have, by their frontier positions, got this international outlook - why, they even send their kids for schooling in top British and European universities, they own real estate on the Côte d'Azur - they have got this international outlook and are in contact with their European counterparts, and once the political side of this conflict has quietened down, the economic and social sides will come back to the fore.

On a related point of some interest, it's worth noting that where Western countries have pulled out of Russia, this has presented a golden opportunity for Russians with a bit of money to take over. For example, the well known case of the McDonald's chain. This will only serve to make them richer and if Russians have money to spend then Europeans' and Americans' ears prick up and tills open and trade resumes.

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PROPAGANDA, THE WAY IT WORKS, THE HARM IT DOES US

16 June 1022

They say that truth is the first victim of war, and nuance the second. So from one or two starting points, we adopt a whole position which can be very black and white - they are the monsters, we are the saviours. A few words can set off many automatic reflexes that might evade our capacity to think rationally from raw facts about a subject and develop a different, even opposite to our feelings, point of view. This would be a good thing because we must see reality if we want to change it or adapt to it. It's no good accepting unthinkingly the narratives of others because if we do we risk being hung out to dry.

Some of those starting points, or triggers, may be untrue, yet if repeated often enough, they become accepted. And behind these leading ideas, each time we hear them we reinforce a whole coherent narrative with "the latest from the battle front". So we are pushed into the short term and into agreeing with ourselves, where we could re-consider in the light of new data (difficult to obtain true, new, data, granted).

For example, "this unprovoked invasion". Or "Russia is a great power", "world's second most powerful army", "atrocities", "genocide", "Russian interests", "recreate its former empire", "Russia must be de-integrated", "plucky little Ukraine"... these are all trigger words that can lead us to misread real-world events, build a tale based on the hopes of others. We become "biaised". 

This is how propaganda works. Key words trigger reflexes that inhibit thought and lead us to analyses and positions that may not correspond to reality on the ground. This is how decision-makers who need our cooperation can exert control over us. Oftentimes, these decion-makers are not acting in our interests, or "the national interest, but in their own.

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HOW A CIVIL RIGHTS ISSUE CAN LEAD TO A CIVIL WAR ISSUE

15 June 2022

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/14/christian-factory-worker-fired-spot-refusing-take-necklace/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

A Christian worker was fired on the spot for wearing a a necklace.

Sounds to me like it's a H&S issue.

Would he be allowed in to the factory wearing Rangers FC stripes? Or Azov chevrons?

This comes back to my human rights and freedom of expression, at the risk of offending someone not sharing my beliefs or values.

It's a typical problem of advanced liberal democracies with over-extended diversity.  When things go wrong economically, there are social and political consequences that the Rule of Law and equity cannot always resolve to everyone's satisfaction.

And you get low-level civil war.

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PRISONERS' DILEMMA

Need to get real - there isn't a military soln short of complete destruction.

Need to recognise this and head for a negotiated compromise.

Reference: try the Prisoners' Dilemma: we are heading for the lose-lose quadrant. A re-think is needed to redirect us to win-win. It can be done  if the imagination and intelligence can be found.

WHAT DO THEY WANT?

AMERICA

America seeks to weaken Russia, going back to 1991, 1945 and 1916 and this is clearly stated in the 2019 Rand report RAND_RR3063 which lists strategic initiatives to obtain this. America wants to overthrow the current regime in Moscow. So this is the American Vision : a world without regional competitors that could threaten its world emperium.

EU

What is the EU's vision for its future? What is the UK's? What is Russia's?

Russia is a vast territory full of commodities, comestibles and carbons. As a a trading partner with Europe, Russia is of the highest priority. Some form of alliance between Europe and Russia, between (a reformed) EU and Russia, would give Europe the chance to overtake America. Alienating Russia risks throwing it into the arms of China, a redoubtable potential enemy. So Old Europe should listen to Russia's fears, should calm new Europe (those countries from the former Soviet era lying on the border in central Europe and containing Russia's natural defences) by negotiating peace treaties. So this is the European vision of an alliance between Russia and Europe that is capable of economically beating America.

RUSSIA

And as for Russia, the tide of history has seen its Western frontier ebb and flow, ebb and flow, Russia has been invaded over 50 times by most of its neighbours and even by Canada. So Russia would like security and stability in its Western frontier and while all the countries from Finland down through Ukraine and round into the Caucasus can be independent, they should also also be neutral.

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VISA EXEMPT ENTRY TO THAILAND

11 June 2022

Thai 30 day visa exempt entry to Thailand and extension.

You can extend your 30 day visa exempt entry for 30 days at immigration without a problem.

 

The airline can ask to see a ticket out of the country within 30 days. That can be a one way ticket to anywhere or you could get a temporary onward ticket online.

For a temporary onward ticket online, try this site :

 onwardticket.com

costs $14.

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CAN THE RoW SHUT THESE TWO BULLIES UP?

09 June 2022

How's the Ukraine war going?

It is not Zelinsky calling the shots, it's Blinken and the US foreign policy elite.

If zelinsky doesn't keep fighting "to the last ukrainien", UK PM Boris - acting no doubt on instructions from Washington - has told him NATO will withdraw its support. 

What would happen then?

Zelinsky couldn't go to his people, after all this suffering and destruction, and capitulate... could he?

So he'd have to watch the wrecking ball. Is there any hope for "peace without victory"?

There is a hope, it is with the Turkey process, started in March, stopped by Johnson (as above - he telephoned Zelinsky, then visited in person, to stop the peace process)...could this process be re-started? With other powers, like India and France...and Iran? ... oh ok.

It always goes back to America's fear of a regional hegemon, and Russia's fear of being defenceless, having lost most of the line of seas and mountains from Finland south across central Europe and round to Georgia and the caucuses, since NATO welched on its 1991 promise to the newly-emerging former soviets military-neutral.

Russia can't win and America can't lose. It's a fight to the death (the death of Ukraine), unless the rest of the world can shut them up.

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UKRAINE : AN END IN SIGHT?

8 June 2022

It is now obvious that Ukraine is losing this war.

The fault largely lies with Boris Johnson, doing the British diplomacy for America's sec of State Antony Blincken and sec of Defence Lloyd Austin. With any luck, he'll be gone shortly and that will open up the possibility of a softer line and a peace settlement.

There was the Turkish peace process from March  which Johnson threw into disarray by telephoning Zelenski and later visiting him, to advise him that if he ever considered negotiation or concession with the Russians, he would lose the associate status and protection afforded his country by NATO. 

It's only on account of this protection that Zelenski could go to his political class and say that it is time for a failing Ukraine to negotiate and make territorial concessions and look we have nothing much to worry about because we're only losing Russian land that would never have been ours anyway.

If Zelensky cannot offer this to his elite, then how can he justify the staggering destruction and loss of life, to finally no useful purpose?

So maybe with Johnson gone there's a chance that the hardline will be softened and a negotiations in Ankara probably take place.

Possibly sooner rather than later.

Further point, if you will allow ...

We need to do this in a way that passes a meaure of blame for the war onto Ukraine, and Zelensky; and does not humiliate Putin. Why? Because we want him, his country, and its commodities comestibles and energy. 

But care: this is exactly what America fears, a regional challenge to its Order. In Europe, in the combination or other, of further aggressive moves from Russia; maybe an alliance between a (possibly re-armed) Germany, with all its technology, and a Russia, with its untold natural resources, possibly backed by 500 million Europeans.

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