8 June 2022
It is now obvious that Ukraine is losing this war.
The fault largely lies with Boris Johnson, doing the British diplomacy for America's sec of State Antony Blincken and sec of Defence Lloyd Austin. With any luck, he'll be gone shortly and that will open up the possibility of a softer line and a peace settlement.
There was the Turkish peace process from March which Johnson threw into disarray by telephoning Zelenski and later visiting him, to advise him that if he ever considered negotiation or concession with the Russians, he would lose the associate status and protection afforded his country by NATO.
It's only on account of this protection that Zelenski could go to his political class and say that it is time for a failing Ukraine to negotiate and make territorial concessions and look we have nothing much to worry about because we're only losing Russian land that would never have been ours anyway.
If Zelensky cannot offer this to his elite, then how can he justify the staggering destruction and loss of life, to finally no useful purpose?
So maybe with Johnson gone there's a chance that the hardline will be softened and a negotiations in Ankara probably take place.
Possibly sooner rather than later.
Further point, if you will allow ...
We need to do this in a way that passes a meaure of blame for the war onto Ukraine, and Zelensky; and does not humiliate Putin. Why? Because we want him, his country, and its commodities comestibles and energy.
But care: this is exactly what America fears, a regional challenge to its Order. In Europe, in the combination or other, of further aggressive moves from Russia; maybe an alliance between a (possibly re-armed) Germany, with all its technology, and a Russia, with its untold natural resources, possibly backed by 500 million Europeans.
4 June 2022
Germany is rearming like the Nazis, says Putin. The story goes back further than this, according to George Friedman.
https://youtu.be/r-8KV_GurLY
Remember that prior to Bismarck, Germany was just a collection of many little different states, so while from 1492 onwards, Britain, the Netherlands, France and Spain had their empires, with whom to trade and grow rich; Germany had nothing.
The Germans unite together very well, they work together very well, they are super efficient and also from looking at the historic record you can see that they are a very aggressive people.
Germany has an industrial base that produces twice what it needs but unlike the other European powers it had no Empire to export to. This is why Germany abandoned the deutschmark for the euro : because it could set the exchange rate and thus found an export home for its surplus production ... at the expense most of these so-called Club Med countries who, by their Catholic or Latin culture, could not keep up.
500 years of war in Europe. Europe was a slaughterhouse that lost 20% of its population. But still, overall Europe is more populous and wealthier than the United States od America.
America created all those institutions after the last war, including the EU and the Marshall plan, and as a sea power it made safe the world's sea lanes for trade. It did all this in order to stop the slaughter in the birthplace of culture, and have a stable block with whom to trade, and to nobble any would-be European hegemon that might form alliances and come back and challenge it.
But it meant that Europe lost much of its sovereignty and the world was dominated by the two powers, America and Russia.
Then in 1992 the Soviet Union collapsed and in that same year, Europe united under the Maastricht Treaty. One of those American institutions, NATO, should have gone out of business at this point, but Europe had disbanded its militaries to a large extent, so NATO remained and began kicking Russia while it was down, rolling in all those newly-independent states along the Russo-central-European fault line. Why? Because it could, as America now had no challenger to check its behaviour.
And this is what led to the present war : as in the past, as soon as Russia regained its strength, it responded to the beating.
So in conclusion, I think it's true to say that while this war is completely unnecessary, but America is never in a mood to listen, if America loses and has to withdraw from Europe, then yes, German re-armament could be a big problem. America will not be there to bully Germany into considerate behaviour for its neighbours, and there is a real risk that if the southern debtor nations stop repaying their debt, they will have problems with Germany, in the same way Sri Lanka currently has problems with China and we could see sovereignty, and the power to make war or peace, flow to a newly militarised Germany.