Tuesday, 7 June 2022

WHO WRITES ZELENSKY'S SCRIPTS?

Francis Ingham  

His background is in politics and public affairs, having previously worked for the Conservative Party and the Confederation of British Industry. He studied PPE at Oxford. He Chaired the OU Conservative Party.

Francis Ingham has been Director General of the PRCA for a decade which is "The world’s largest and most influential PR professional body - challenging, supporting, and raising standards."

The Ukraine Communication Support Network (UCSN) was established by the PRCA and ICCO in March 2022 to coordinate volunteer communications activity in support of the people of Ukraine.

Wondered about the equipment and praise Boris lavishes on Zelensky? It is Francis Ingham's outfit writing Zelensky's PR stuff....Ingham is Boris's mate .... duuurrrggh 

Saturday, 4 June 2022

GREMANY IS RE-ARMING LIKE THE NAZIS

4 June 2022

 Germany is rearming like the Nazis, says Putin. The story goes back further than this, according to George Friedman.

https://youtu.be/r-8KV_GurLY

Remember that prior to Bismarck, Germany was just a collection of many little different states, so while from 1492 onwards, Britain, the Netherlands, France and Spain had their empires, with whom to trade and grow rich; Germany had nothing.

The Germans unite together very well, they work together very well, they are super efficient and also from looking at the historic record you can see that they are a very aggressive people.

Germany has an industrial base that produces twice what it needs but unlike the other European powers it had no Empire to export to. This is why Germany abandoned the deutschmark for the euro : because it could set the exchange rate and thus found an export home for its surplus production ... at the expense most of these so-called Club Med countries who, by their Catholic or Latin culture, could not keep up.

500 years of war in Europe. Europe was a slaughterhouse that lost 20% of its population. But still, overall Europe is more populous and wealthier than the United States od America. 

America created all those institutions after the last war, including the EU and the Marshall plan, and as a sea power it made safe the world's sea lanes for trade. It did all this in order to stop the slaughter in the birthplace of culture, and have a stable block with whom to trade, and to nobble any would-be European hegemon that might form alliances and come back and challenge it. 

But it meant that Europe lost much of its sovereignty and the world was dominated by the two powers, America and Russia.

Then in 1992 the Soviet Union collapsed and in that same year, Europe united under the Maastricht Treaty. One of those American institutions, NATO, should have gone out of business at this point, but Europe had disbanded its militaries to a large extent, so NATO remained and began kicking Russia while it was down, rolling in all those newly-independent states along the Russo-central-European fault line. Why? Because it could, as America now had no challenger to check its behaviour. 

And this is what led to the present war : as in the past, as soon as Russia regained its strength, it responded to the beating.

   So in conclusion, I think it's true to say that while this war is completely unnecessary, but America is never in a mood to listen, if America loses and has to withdraw from Europe, then yes, German re-armament could be a big problem. America will not be there to bully Germany into considerate behaviour for its neighbours, and there is a real risk that if the southern debtor nations stop repaying their debt, they will have problems with Germany, in the same way Sri Lanka currently has problems with China and we could see sovereignty, and the power to make war or peace, flow to a newly militarised Germany.          

IS THE WORLD UNITED AGAINST PUTIN?

This is just America breaking it promise to respect the neutrality of the newly emerging Soviet provinces w

When you look at the countries supporting this war, you'll find that it's a small proportion of the world's population and they are what you might call white supremacist countries.

But if your news diet consists entirely of the western Morning press then you will have a narrow view of what is going on. In fact, your view will be the same as that of the Western intelligence units...meaning it will not really be your view, it will be the govt propaganda machine talking through you.

So before giving voice to the hysteria that is whipped up by the various Western governments (I won't say the Western white supremacist governments because that is a mad idea!) it would be a good idea to read around the subject a bit and get more broadly informed!             

Friday, 3 June 2022

HOW TO AVOID BECOMING A CABBAGE

3 June 2022
It's quite easy to avoid becoming a cabbage really, it just requires that you broaden your diet.

This is just America breaking it promise to respect the neutrality of the newly emerging Soviet provinces w

When you look at the countries supporting this war, you'll find that it's a small proportion of the world's population and they are what you might call white supremacist countries.

But if your news diet consists entirely of the western Morning press then you will have a narrow view of what is going on. In fact, your view will be the same as that of the Western intelligence units...meaning it will not really be your view, it will be the govt propaganda machine talking through you.

So before giving voice to the hysteria that is whipped up by the various Western governments (I won't say the Western white supremacist governments because that is a mad idea!) it would be a good idea to read around the subject a bit and get more broadly informed!             

WHEN THE WAR ENDS

3 June 2022
A couple of points to make today.
The final settlement of this war when it comes in a couple of months or maybe a couple of years will look much like the deal that Ukraine signed and then reneged on at Minsk in 2014 and 2015: 
- Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent and sovereign country although it will be neutral 
- Crimea will remain Russian as it pretty much always has been 
- and the shelling of the Donbas by Kiev will cease because those two oblasts will achieve a measure of Independence.
The difference between Minsk 1 and 2 and the yet to be agreed Minsk 3 will simply be that the longer this war goes on, the greater the destruction and death.
The other point is that Russia cannot lose this war because its existence depends on its being able to control its natural frontiers and its need for access to a warm water port; and yet at the same time, America cannot win this war because its dominion over its imperium depends on this victory.
So I guess the war will end through victory on the battlefield rather than a more adult discussion at table, as recommended by Europe or at least as was being recommended by France and Germany until they were bullied by America.

So it is a kind of sad irony, don't you think, that we know the outcome, but there's a hell of a lot of fighting to be done before we can get there.

Thursday, 2 June 2022

ANARCHY AND HIERARCHY

Sunday, 29 May 2022

SHATER SHATER

https://youtu.be/Zgz8ybG6l-U

https://youtu.be/BLG5FEc1qeE

https://youtu.be/OtPFBtjbt2w

Saturday, 28 May 2022

WHY THIS WAR?

28 May 2022

In trying to understand the underlying interests of the parties we should detach ourselves to some extent from personalities and even contemporary politics and we should instead take account of the geography of the countries, the demographics of the people and the wealth and technology of the economies.

Russia

Russia itself is a flat plain and after the collapse of the Soviet Union its natural defences - mountains, seas, gaps - came to be found in other countries.

Russia in its long history has being invaded over 50 times, by almost everyone, from Sweden, Germany, France and Turkey and even Canada!

The border between Russia and central Europe stretches from Finland through the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and the Caucuses.

America promised that these countries would remain neutral, but the reality is that NATO took them all in barring Finland and Ukraine and moved its tanks and artillery right up to within a few hundred kms of Moscow.

After the last war there were only two  countries left standing out of the previous five world players. It was the cold war, a bipolar world, and then with the collapse of Soviet Russia it became "the unipolar moment" and we thought that history had ended and the future of the world would be love, dope, coca-cola and democracy, through to the end of time.

America

But America is a jealous master and had other ideas. America will not tolerate any potential regional competitor, neither in Europe, nor in Asia, because such a country might form alliances and gang up against America and take away its world domination.

In the case of Europe, which lost Russia at the end of the cold war, America's fear is that Europe, in the shape of Germany or the EU, ally its wealth and technology with Russia's resources and low-cost manpower. As for America's interest in Asia, there it fears the rise of a regional hegemon in the form of China.

Under pressure from America, Europe seems to have lost its head. Europe is overcome by the suffering of its neighbour the Ukrainian people and is shocked at the disrespect for for its values. It has no military and it has no strategy either, other than to defer to America for a political lead and military protection.

Furthermore, by pushing for enlargement of the EU, America and the UK have weakened the EU and its decision-making process, and at the same time created a wonderful market in what is the richest region on the planet, for its arms and agriculture.

Russia

Russia made it abundantly clear that it needed the Crimea, a neutral Ukraine and respect for the Russian speakers of the eastern provinces, but America did not want to listen. "Let's get this war done", it said.

By its geography, Russia is a pulsating and quite aggressive country whose border with central Europe has fluctuated over the centuries. No sooner has it extended its border over the natural defences that lay in neighbouring countries, than these countries resist and take back control.

So those are the reasons for this war as concerns Russia and America - though you would not guess this from the propaganda.

As to the success of Russia's invasion, it may be winning the war on the ground, it may link the homeland to its port on the Black Sea, but it had not reckoned with Ukrainian resistance, European sanctions, nor NATO reinforcement.

America's Strategy

Through NATO America has effectively seized Europe, stopped self-interested reflection and now with Ukraine is hoping to put in a Trojan horse to ensure its continuing interests. 

America's true interest and fear is the rise of China. You might think that Ukraine is a sideshow and be surprised at this distraction. But it could also be argued that America has led Russia into this trap and is using Ukraine to unite Europe under its direction and strengthen NATO and have ready a force to counter China.

Ukraine

As for little Ukraine, it is completely bullied by America into fighting its enormous neighbour. "We'll fight this war to the last Ukrainian". America supplies the arms, Ukraine the manpower. 

You might think Zelensky is the madman of the three (Putin and Biden) as his country and his people are being pounded into submission, but turn-by-turn he begs Putin for peace talks and he pleads with America for more and heavier arms.

Action and Communication

The handle I have found the most useful to understand this war is that all the rhetoric and moralising that you read about is purely propaganda, and from both sides, sent out each morning from the Intelligence units to the Main Stream Media, for copy-pasting into the public mind; while the reality is entirely the self-interest of each of the belligerents, in geopolitical and demographic terms. 

It is the anarchic nature of the system of nation states, the absence of any real hierarchy or higher authority meaning there is no-one to enforce any rules, so we are left with it is the strongest who wins. And with its vast emperium and position of absolute strength and in the absence of any constraint or hindrance, America can completely let itself go and get away with pretty much anything it likes... who is going to take Biden (or Putin) to an international court, for example?

The voice of reason and diplomacy is found in old Europe, Merkel was and Macron is advocates for peace, but who's listening, when will they be heard by rhe Americans?


WHAT A MESS THE PLANET

So finally America has the war that it has been provoking since 2014 and before.

After drought, pandemic and war (in that order), we now have famine immediately affecting 250 million people and in not so long from now almost two billion worldwide.

On the economic front, inflation - a supposedly temporary feature coming out of covid - looks to be beyond the reach of central banks, beyond the reach of local interest rate rises, and to become a structural part of our life. With the war, inflation has increased very seriously, particularly in gas, oil and basic foodstuffs.

With rising inflation and interest rates, we can expect lower demand for goods and services, lower profit margins, an increase in bankruptcies, rising unemployment and eventually a stock market crash and recession and harm to the American Order (and that means us).

We should not lose sight of the context. Two billion persons added in the last 20 years. The changes from our alterations to the climate. And a retrenchment away from global dependencies supported by the American Order. Demographics. Climate change. Deglobalisation. 

As we know from history, dislocation on this scale will lead to serious political and social unrest and huge migrations.

If Europe wants to protect itself, it must get back in the driving seat of its future, however hard it is to confront the usual bullying tactics of America, and force a peace settlement on (a grateful) Ukraine and Russia.

In addition, Europe should take care of its neighbours around the mediterranean basin and Africa.


Food and Agriculture Resilience Mission, FARM.

We know that an "I'm alright Jack" attitude would rebound on us quite quickly with major migratory flows, and so it is reassuring to see Europe mounting this FARM initiative (ha ha the name) the other side of the Med and in Africa. This seems a much more responsible use of resources than pouring hi-tech arms and military experts into Ukraine.

It is time for pompom Johnson to go and for the UK government to separate itself from the numerous and evident stupidities of the Biden administration.

Wednesday, 25 May 2022

PARTYGATE

25 May 2022
All the crocodile tears, ok never mind. Big question is:

"What did they know that we didn't?"

No-one risks throwing away their life for a glass of wine. Conclusion: there was no risk, not to these people. And they knew it.

For me, there are two possible explanations, one is political and the other psychological.

The, the govt, could not lock down particular sections of the population and let other groups, the majority, carry on with their life, without obviously risking huge civil strife and dislocation .

How could they lockdown the elderly, the weak and probably the poor and let the majority carry on and party through covid?

A quite different explanation from a human nature point of view and a quite sinister appreciation of Human Nature: this is what happens when a government wins absolute Power - they just abuse it. They abuse and take away our freedom, because they can - that's what almost all politicians are interested in : the power to control the lives of others ... sick, isn't it.

A taste of 1984, a taste of things to come, if you give them the chance to take away your freedom, you can be sure they will.

Tuesday, 24 May 2022

AMERICA STARTED THIS WAR

 25 May 2022

DIPLOMACY OR MILITARY

                Macron has kept open an intelligence line and works, in Europen style, on the diplomacy Macron is quite right to want to avoid humiliation - he knows his history, his country suffered most after Germany was humiliated at Versailles.

But a different advice comes from arch realist Kissinger. Concede the land taken and call it quits. And this, most observers think, is what will happen.

Let's hope it comes to pass because otherwise of all the American blenders since the Cold War this will surely be the greatest.

I don't know if you can say that this has been the most stupid of America's Wars, but there is no question that the solution, when it comes, had been available before the War started.  

AMERICA'S MOTIVATION

  Although Putin invaded Ukraine, the Americans started this war for the same reason as they started all their other wars, going back to the time of the Dulles brothers and the Monroe doctrine.

Looking out from America, the President, whoever he may be, sees Asia on the one hand across the Pacific and Europe on the other across the Atlantic . What America will not tolerate is a regional hegemon emerging in Asia or Europe. It does not want Germany or Russia or China, forming an alliance with one or more countries in the Americas, and threatening its world domination.

The aim of this war has been cited many times, and by Biden and Pelosi, and it is quite simply to weaken Russia.

How they do it can be found in the report from RAND : RR3063.pdf. It details 15 dark op.s, amongst other things.

This is very dark, deep realpolitik. But the explanation America gives the public is the liberal rhetoric - call it propaganda - that we read every day in our newspapers and watch on breakfast TV.