3 June 2022
A couple of points to make today.
The final settlement of this war when it comes in a couple of months or maybe a couple of years will look much like the deal that Ukraine signed and then reneged on at Minsk in 2014 and 2015:
- Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent and sovereign country although it will be neutral
- Crimea will remain Russian as it pretty much always has been
- and the shelling of the Donbas by Kiev will cease because those two oblasts will achieve a measure of Independence.
The difference between Minsk 1 and 2 and the yet to be agreed Minsk 3 will simply be that the longer this war goes on, the greater the destruction and death.
The other point is that Russia cannot lose this war because its existence depends on its being able to control its natural frontiers and its need for access to a warm water port; and yet at the same time, America cannot win this war because its dominion over its imperium depends on this victory.
So I guess the war will end through victory on the battlefield rather than a more adult discussion at table, as recommended by Europe or at least as was being recommended by France and Germany until they were bullied by America.
So it is a kind of sad irony, don't you think, that we know the outcome, but there's a hell of a lot of fighting to be done before we can get there.
In trying to understand the underlying interests of the parties we should detach ourselves to some extent from personalities and even contemporary politics and we should instead take account of the geography of the countries, the demographics of the people and the wealth and technology of the economies.
Russia
Russia itself is a flat plain and after the collapse of the Soviet Union its natural defences - mountains, seas, gaps - came to be found in other countries.
Russia in its long history has being invaded over 50 times, by almost everyone, from Sweden, Germany, France and Turkey and even Canada!
The border between Russia and central Europe stretches from Finland through the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and the Caucuses.
America promised that these countries would remain neutral, but the reality is that NATO took them all in barring Finland and Ukraine and moved its tanks and artillery right up to within a few hundred kms of Moscow.
After the last war there were only two countries left standing out of the previous five world players. It was the cold war, a bipolar world, and then with the collapse of Soviet Russia it became "the unipolar moment" and we thought that history had ended and the future of the world would be love, dope, coca-cola and democracy, through to the end of time.
America
But America is a jealous master and had other ideas. America will not tolerate any potential regional competitor, neither in Europe, nor in Asia, because such a country might form alliances and gang up against America and take away its world domination.
In the case of Europe, which lost Russia at the end of the cold war, America's fear is that Europe, in the shape of Germany or the EU, ally its wealth and technology with Russia's resources and low-cost manpower. As for America's interest in Asia, there it fears the rise of a regional hegemon in the form of China.
Under pressure from America, Europe seems to have lost its head. Europe is overcome by the suffering of its neighbour the Ukrainian people and is shocked at the disrespect for for its values. It has no military and it has no strategy either, other than to defer to America for a political lead and military protection.
Furthermore, by pushing for enlargement of the EU, America and the UK have weakened the EU and its decision-making process, and at the same time created a wonderful market in what is the richest region on the planet, for its arms and agriculture.
Russia
Russia made it abundantly clear that it needed the Crimea, a neutral Ukraine and respect for the Russian speakers of the eastern provinces, but America did not want to listen. "Let's get this war done", it said.
By its geography, Russia is a pulsating and quite aggressive country whose border with central Europe has fluctuated over the centuries. No sooner has it extended its border over the natural defences that lay in neighbouring countries, than these countries resist and take back control.
So those are the reasons for this war as concerns Russia and America - though you would not guess this from the propaganda.
As to the success of Russia's invasion, it may be winning the war on the ground, it may link the homeland to its port on the Black Sea, but it had not reckoned with Ukrainian resistance, European sanctions, nor NATO reinforcement.
America's Strategy
Through NATO America has effectively seized Europe, stopped self-interested reflection and now with Ukraine is hoping to put in a Trojan horse to ensure its continuing interests.
America's true interest and fear is the rise of China. You might think that Ukraine is a sideshow and be surprised at this distraction. But it could also be argued that America has led Russia into this trap and is using Ukraine to unite Europe under its direction and strengthen NATO and have ready a force to counter China.
Ukraine
As for little Ukraine, it is completely bullied by America into fighting its enormous neighbour. "We'll fight this war to the last Ukrainian". America supplies the arms, Ukraine the manpower.
You might think Zelensky is the madman of the three (Putin and Biden) as his country and his people are being pounded into submission, but turn-by-turn he begs Putin for peace talks and he pleads with America for more and heavier arms.
Action and Communication
The handle I have found the most useful to understand this war is that all the rhetoric and moralising that you read about is purely propaganda, and from both sides, sent out each morning from the Intelligence units to the Main Stream Media, for copy-pasting into the public mind; while the reality is entirely the self-interest of each of the belligerents, in geopolitical and demographic terms.
It is the anarchic nature of the system of nation states, the absence of any real hierarchy or higher authority meaning there is no-one to enforce any rules, so we are left with it is the strongest who wins. And with its vast emperium and position of absolute strength and in the absence of any constraint or hindrance, America can completely let itself go and get away with pretty much anything it likes... who is going to take Biden (or Putin) to an international court, for example?
The voice of reason and diplomacy is found in old Europe, Merkel was and Macron is advocates for peace, but who's listening, when will they be heard by rhe Americans?