Saturday, 19 March 2022

MORE COVID

19 March 2022

Older folk, the unwell, are very cautious, and understandably so.

In my country, covid is more and more common amongst the over-70s - 1 in 23 over 70s have covid, that is a lot and it is the highest it has ever been. But they are vaccinated so they dont notice. Nonetheless, the govt is under pressure to roll out the fourth jab.

In my country, about 2.6 million people have covid at the moment. That is 1 in 20. It is highest in school children : 1 in 16 have covid, that is more than 2 in every class.

Why is covid on the increase? Does it matter?

It is doubtless due to waning immunity and removing all restrictions. Also, there are more hospitalisations and deaths. So everyone - including you - will get covid at some point. 

But if we are healthy and vaccinated there is a good chance we will be ok. And a person can get it twice, so I can catch it again.

But no worries, stay healthy, stay sensible.

THE UK'S LIZ TRUSS - JUST ANOTHER WARMONGER

19 March 2022


She said: "We don't see any serious withdrawal of Russian troops or any serious proposals on the table."

America and her chorus girl the UK are not looking for peace. If they were, they would surely not expect the other side to remove their army before sitting at table to negotiate. That would be the other side sitting having surrendered.

It is also a shame for us all that America pretends no serious proposals have been made, considering this is Russia's last stand.

This is just the neocons, or call then Liberal Internationalists if you prefer, making war to spread their idea of government and prop up the American Order. Did it work in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria...? No, it just led to bloodbaths and debt enough to shake the foundations of our democracies to the ground.

So, I am very very happy to live in a democracy. It is the best form of government. Except it lets in these greedy and deeply stupid warmongers.

The idea would be to make plain to Putin what reforms are necessary for Russia to join a (reformed) EU. And thus share Russia's abundant resources.

And - and this is even more difficult - start the process of making Europe independent. NATO is America's mercenary army, it obeys American central command.

Europe is the home of civilisation today. With China and America both in decline - for different reasons - we need to prepare the next Order. We have 10 to 20 years. Let's start now.              

Friday, 18 March 2022

A NEW EUROPE

This guy has seen politicians come and go and must have had difficulty framing politicians typical short-term thinking in a bit of historical perspective.
Putin has got as far as he's going to get - we just need to tidy it up into a Minsk-3 and sweep some stuff back under the carpet.
But the Americans block everything with their aggressive warmongering. We, on the other hand, do not need to be America's draft animals.
China and America are both dying embers. But not Europe. The UK could link up Russia's near abroad, talk nicely to Putin, and create a proto-European confederation, that would work on bottom-up democracy (cf EU dictatorship) and could modernise Russia in exchange for sharing its natural riches.
That would solve so many problems and realise so many dreams for everyone. Not least a post brexit UK with a global voice.
I agree it is a tall order, but it is a direction.
Otherwise, we remain america's chorus girl -that describes Blair and Johnson - castrated by America and docile cheerleaders of America's interests. But not ours.
Our interests are for a strong Europe. America is in decline, China will never make it as its demographics mean th quite soon the majority of Chinese will be over 65.
That leaves Europe....but we are far from ready ... we don't have a clue.

Monday, 14 March 2022

WHAT'S WRONG WITH BORIS' POLICY ON REHOUSING UKRAINIAN REFUGEES?

14 March 2022

I cannot believe anyone is applying to take in a ukrainian family.

This is a govt scam to silence an anti-war movement or at least to silence the nationalist sentiment that brought us Brexit and Trump and populism generally

You are supposed to feel guilty if you object to receiving these immigrants.

The goal should be to offer safety until this conflict is resolved, after which the families return home to their menfolk, to rebuild.

We know very well that these tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of the poorest people in Europe, poorer than the Romanians, will not leave wealthy UK and go home to Ukraine; they will stay and their menfolk will join them.

They should be supported in neighbouring countries (where they are now) with Western aid. The current intimidation of UK residents by the Westminster crowd is unacceptable - it is just liberal international virtue-signalling.

Boris needs to think for the interests of the UK - he got us out of the EU, but now I have deep doubts about him and Truss

Saturday, 12 March 2022

EUROPE IS NOT SOVEREIGN

15 March 2022

No country in Europe is sovereign because it is not reponsible for its own defence nor its own foreign policy.
Europe is not sovereign while it pays NATO and the Americans for its defence. It is difficult to say these things and not be lynched. But America gas interests different from those of Europe and sometimes in opposition to. Looking at the wealth and population skills base, Europe could in principle outperform America. What does America care for Europe and Ukraine - so far away, itself independent in energy. It cares more for China.
  
But consider for a moment the state of its economy (and ours is no different). 14 years after Lehman and still on QE. If cannot carry on printing, the central bank must raise rates in order for the govt to continue financi g itself.
  
How to continue the American Order set up after the last war? Surely Western sanctions are destroying the American World Order?
  
War is often the only way out. It destroys competition and permits the takeover of strategic assets. NATO - 21 of the 30 members are from Europe - has made it clear that no planes and no soldiers will be sent. That would escalate a further step, the next being battlefield nuclear, and after that.
  
War is legitimate if in self-defence or under UN mandate. War needs massive public opinion first, foremost and sustained. Genocide, war crimes, blowing apart hospitals and schools, these bring the public to boiling and the MSM has a role to play here. (And as the Germans know, the russophobia and Russia's own sense of shame,will persist for many decades.)
  
Is Russia winning, or is it Ukraine? Will individual European countries send fighter jets to take the skies? How to find a way out for Putin, without rewarding him? How can NATO continue to justify its non-intervention in the light of these horrors ( it took three years at Sarajevo ), with Russia raising the country so that no stone is left standing on another?

WHAT'S WRONG WITH MACRON?

12 March 2022

Macron is the only politician keeping in touch with Putin. Good for Macron.

But otherwise, Macron is one of those hussard rowdy types. He needs to be a bit less flamboyant and declarative, he needs to listen and concentrate more, be less concerned by public opnion and focus more on policy, make attainable objectives instead of massive shattering unreachable goals esp given the coffers are empty, he needs to recognise that France is a middle-ranking power and he isn't some emperor-in-waiting, get away from the illusion of action and into real actions for the medium term for the european powers that be.

He really is foolish to crticise the UK the way he does and drive us further from common European interests.

He doesn't seem to recognise France's role or what will make France great again, which is more about listening and mediating and waiting with patience for results. He should help Germany find back its confidence so it can express itself on matters of foreign policy and this will help Germany loosen its tight purse strings, to facilitate a Europe that can take care of itself, promote peace in the world, and not need America or NATO who are remarkably aggressive and have goals quite unrelated to Europe's, with values quite the opposite of the values learnt in Europe after 400 years of war.             

Wednesday, 9 March 2022

UKRAINE START HERE FOR A PEACE SETTLEMENT

Look, instead of all this bloodthirsty stuff, consider Putin's petceptions and how that might be incorporated into a just solution.
Hes aftaid of a colour revolution in Moscow and feels further exposed because he doesnt control the access points invaders have traditionally used, viz. Crimea, Bessarabia and Suwalki corridor.
Of great significance here are the wishes of local populations and also Russia's demographics - Russia will run out of fighting-age men by the end of the decade.
Plus, bear in mind that accesion to NATO and EU membership is a very lengthy process, taking many years, and for good and unavoidable reasons.
A promising avenue to explore would be to guarantee non-membership, for a time limited by the term of the agreement (eight years, say) and meanwhile set up an IMF development fund.

Monday, 7 March 2022

IS MELENCHON RIGHT?

Melenchon is a utpoianist who believes man if perfectable. 
I know that man is flawed and only a functioning state with an operational legal system keeps man in place. (Religion can perform the same function.)

Melenchon thinks that the interests of the group must predominate over the freedom of the individual. And these interests are decided by the State. 
I think that direction is not given top-down from some autocracy, but rises bottom-up from the summation of the wishes of the people.

There should only be one party rule because competing interests leads to anarchy.
No! Let those who wish to represent the people put forward their policies for our consideration. The government has no interests other than those of the people.

Melenchon believes that private ownership is "expropriation". He thinks the state should own everything on behalf of the people, and decide how the assets of the country are best used.
I think maximum happiness and efficiency comes from private ownership.

Melenchon thinks that workers are "alienated" from the production process because they only see one little bit of it and do not share equally in the benefits.

Melenchon see society as composed of "classes".
I can see this is useful for a company's marketing and pricing, but society is composed of individuals and families living in nations. Workers do not identify with workers in other countries, individuals identify with those of the same or similar culture, language, credo, values, cuisine, clothes ... their neighbours preferred.

Friday, 4 March 2022

LIFE IS A TALE, TOLD BY AN IDIOT, FULL OF SOUND AND FURY, SIGNIFYING NOTHING

4 March 2022

As we talked about Shakespeare, you might be interested in this short speech from Macbeth, perhaps one of the best known, though there are hundreds.

Shakespeare's English is difficult, even for an English man, even for me But Ian McKellen makes it easy to understand.

What do you think?

https://youtu.be/zGbZCgHQ9m8


Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,

To the last syllable of recorded time;

And all our yesterdays have lighted fools

The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!

Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,

And then is heard no more. It is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.



Sir Ian Mckellen tells us that this piece is reflections on a theme. The theme is how brief and pointless is life. Blackness. Despair. Finite, eternity, we will all die. You must understand the sense of Shakespeare's words to get the sounds right. 

He will tell us all the devices (timbre, voice, eyelids...metaphor, rhythm, picures...) that Shakespeare uses.

Shakespeare is telling a story. This is Macbeth's last soliloquy.

Ian McKellen is a great Shakespearean actor. His audience is other actors. He wants to tell them that to be a great actor, first, you must understand the piece; and then second if you feel and understand, then you can use all your resources (voice, rhythm facial expression, body language, clothes, the production set) to bring the audience into the play.

Then McKellen explains the importance of time and we can imagine someone plodding down a country lane.

There would have been a *time* for such a *word*.

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow

To the last syllable of recorded time.

Out, out, brief candle. 
The wind blows out the candle of life and the fool collapses in a dusty pile in the country lane.
His wife has just died. The fool has died. Macbeth is going to die. It is about all our deaths.

Life is a walking shadow. 
A walking gentleman is someone available for small walk-on walk-off parts in the theatre. Here, it is not even a "walking gentleman", it is only a "walking shadow". So life is a walking shadow means there's not really very much to it.

A poor player
Life is a poor player- means this lowly walking shadow.

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage.
What a picture of life! Life is like a player (an actor) that struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more.
So this poor player who struts and frets (pride and anxiety) his hour (that is all we get!) and then he dies and is forgotten. We die and then we are forgotten, no-one to mourn or miss us. That is really black!!!

 It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

The last beats of that pentameter ♤ are missing, there is silence, I am not there, it is total oblivion (lali), total silence, total emptiness.



Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,

To the last syllable of recorded time;

And all our yesterdays have lighted fools

The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!

Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,

And then is heard no more. It is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.




♤Pentameter: a line of verse consisting of five metrical feet, or (in Greek and Latin verse) of two halves each of two feet and a long syllable.

MORE EXPLANATION NOW IVE READ THE PIECE MANY TIMES

Theatre is tragedy or it is comedy. What is the difference?

Tragedy ends badly and you know that from the beginning. There is nothing you can do about it. It is destiny.

Macbeth realises this. He thinks he has been clever and manipulated others and cheated, to get what he wants. But no. He is a poor player, he struts and frets his hour upon the stage of life, he is the idiot because he was fooled, his life ends as a gust of wind blows out a candle, he goes to his dusty death, his life has been full of sound and fury, but actually it meant nothing, nothing.

So it is a tragedy because his life was worthless. He did realise this, but too late, only after his wife died, it was too late to learn, too late to change.

But comedy is different. It ends better than it starts. Why? Because we learn from life. And so we can change the future. Life is transformative. Transformative.

All of Shakespeare is about time. Time. Tik,, tok,, tik,, tok... Our life is nothing more than the passage of time, on which are threaded events. It can move fast. It can move slow. And all our yesterdays, our past and all we've lived and done, have lighted fools, have shown us, have led usfools, the way to dusty death, to our death, we crumple back into the earth as a handful of death.

Death never happens at the right moment. It is always too early, too soon. Of course! But if life has transformed us, from an imperfect creature, to perfect, we can return a better person, to our maker. Perfection. So the point of life is to improve ourselves. And in a tragedy, this is not possible. The evil is already written, it is our destiny, though we learn about it too late to change anything. We do not understand in good time.

Here again is Macbeth's last soliloquy:

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.










Wednesday, 2 March 2022

WHAT HAPPENS IN WAR (101 ECONOMICS)

3 March 2022

After a war, the losing side loses is currency. So my small investment at 259 in POLY.L is subject to big risk.

Things never go as planned in war, as we've seen, and it'll be worse than we could imagine, it's 'cos of the other side.

But the winner will be he side that can endure the most pain.

The kind of things we could see in Russia, my homework reveals, might be that it closes its markets, sets up asset price controls, changes ownerships, imposes exchange controls, and may change tax rates, limit stock market issuances and impose higher corporate tax rates.

So let's hope for a swift and sensible resolution, not too much ego please, just weigh up the costs and benefits first guys.

FUTURE OF THE UKRAINE

The Russians I'd imagine want to reduce Ukraine to rubble and leave.

I remember the romans did that in the third punic war in 146BC. Not one stone was left standing on another. It took a week to put all the inhabitants of Carthage to the sword. They were throwing them off high buildings, it was quicker.

But you know what?

Carthage was rebuilt, it became the capital of its Roman province and the third most important city of the Roman Empire.

There was a long period of prosperity from rich agricultural exports and a rich cosmopolitan culture.

Christianity came to rule and provided three popes and Augustine of Hippo. Ok Tunisia is all musulman today but that's a thousand years later...

So Ukraine will take the pain and come out better for it. Member of the EU? (After a lengthy period of procedures and protocols). Member of NATO to fight the Chinese alongside the Russians? Maybe.