Saturday, 12 March 2022

WHAT'S WRONG WITH MACRON?

12 March 2022

Macron is the only politician keeping in touch with Putin. Good for Macron.

But otherwise, Macron is one of those hussard rowdy types. He needs to be a bit less flamboyant and declarative, he needs to listen and concentrate more, be less concerned by public opnion and focus more on policy, make attainable objectives instead of massive shattering unreachable goals esp given the coffers are empty, he needs to recognise that France is a middle-ranking power and he isn't some emperor-in-waiting, get away from the illusion of action and into real actions for the medium term for the european powers that be.

He really is foolish to crticise the UK the way he does and drive us further from common European interests.

He doesn't seem to recognise France's role or what will make France great again, which is more about listening and mediating and waiting with patience for results. He should help Germany find back its confidence so it can express itself on matters of foreign policy and this will help Germany loosen its tight purse strings, to facilitate a Europe that can take care of itself, promote peace in the world, and not need America or NATO who are remarkably aggressive and have goals quite unrelated to Europe's, with values quite the opposite of the values learnt in Europe after 400 years of war.             

Wednesday, 9 March 2022

UKRAINE START HERE FOR A PEACE SETTLEMENT

Look, instead of all this bloodthirsty stuff, consider Putin's petceptions and how that might be incorporated into a just solution.
Hes aftaid of a colour revolution in Moscow and feels further exposed because he doesnt control the access points invaders have traditionally used, viz. Crimea, Bessarabia and Suwalki corridor.
Of great significance here are the wishes of local populations and also Russia's demographics - Russia will run out of fighting-age men by the end of the decade.
Plus, bear in mind that accesion to NATO and EU membership is a very lengthy process, taking many years, and for good and unavoidable reasons.
A promising avenue to explore would be to guarantee non-membership, for a time limited by the term of the agreement (eight years, say) and meanwhile set up an IMF development fund.

Monday, 7 March 2022

IS MELENCHON RIGHT?

Melenchon is a utpoianist who believes man if perfectable. 
I know that man is flawed and only a functioning state with an operational legal system keeps man in place. (Religion can perform the same function.)

Melenchon thinks that the interests of the group must predominate over the freedom of the individual. And these interests are decided by the State. 
I think that direction is not given top-down from some autocracy, but rises bottom-up from the summation of the wishes of the people.

There should only be one party rule because competing interests leads to anarchy.
No! Let those who wish to represent the people put forward their policies for our consideration. The government has no interests other than those of the people.

Melenchon believes that private ownership is "expropriation". He thinks the state should own everything on behalf of the people, and decide how the assets of the country are best used.
I think maximum happiness and efficiency comes from private ownership.

Melenchon thinks that workers are "alienated" from the production process because they only see one little bit of it and do not share equally in the benefits.

Melenchon see society as composed of "classes".
I can see this is useful for a company's marketing and pricing, but society is composed of individuals and families living in nations. Workers do not identify with workers in other countries, individuals identify with those of the same or similar culture, language, credo, values, cuisine, clothes ... their neighbours preferred.

Friday, 4 March 2022

LIFE IS A TALE, TOLD BY AN IDIOT, FULL OF SOUND AND FURY, SIGNIFYING NOTHING

4 March 2022

As we talked about Shakespeare, you might be interested in this short speech from Macbeth, perhaps one of the best known, though there are hundreds.

Shakespeare's English is difficult, even for an English man, even for me But Ian McKellen makes it easy to understand.

What do you think?

https://youtu.be/zGbZCgHQ9m8


Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,

To the last syllable of recorded time;

And all our yesterdays have lighted fools

The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!

Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,

And then is heard no more. It is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.



Sir Ian Mckellen tells us that this piece is reflections on a theme. The theme is how brief and pointless is life. Blackness. Despair. Finite, eternity, we will all die. You must understand the sense of Shakespeare's words to get the sounds right. 

He will tell us all the devices (timbre, voice, eyelids...metaphor, rhythm, picures...) that Shakespeare uses.

Shakespeare is telling a story. This is Macbeth's last soliloquy.

Ian McKellen is a great Shakespearean actor. His audience is other actors. He wants to tell them that to be a great actor, first, you must understand the piece; and then second if you feel and understand, then you can use all your resources (voice, rhythm facial expression, body language, clothes, the production set) to bring the audience into the play.

Then McKellen explains the importance of time and we can imagine someone plodding down a country lane.

There would have been a *time* for such a *word*.

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow

To the last syllable of recorded time.

Out, out, brief candle. 
The wind blows out the candle of life and the fool collapses in a dusty pile in the country lane.
His wife has just died. The fool has died. Macbeth is going to die. It is about all our deaths.

Life is a walking shadow. 
A walking gentleman is someone available for small walk-on walk-off parts in the theatre. Here, it is not even a "walking gentleman", it is only a "walking shadow". So life is a walking shadow means there's not really very much to it.

A poor player
Life is a poor player- means this lowly walking shadow.

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage.
What a picture of life! Life is like a player (an actor) that struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more.
So this poor player who struts and frets (pride and anxiety) his hour (that is all we get!) and then he dies and is forgotten. We die and then we are forgotten, no-one to mourn or miss us. That is really black!!!

 It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

The last beats of that pentameter ♤ are missing, there is silence, I am not there, it is total oblivion (lali), total silence, total emptiness.



Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,

To the last syllable of recorded time;

And all our yesterdays have lighted fools

The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!

Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,

And then is heard no more. It is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.




♤Pentameter: a line of verse consisting of five metrical feet, or (in Greek and Latin verse) of two halves each of two feet and a long syllable.

MORE EXPLANATION NOW IVE READ THE PIECE MANY TIMES

Theatre is tragedy or it is comedy. What is the difference?

Tragedy ends badly and you know that from the beginning. There is nothing you can do about it. It is destiny.

Macbeth realises this. He thinks he has been clever and manipulated others and cheated, to get what he wants. But no. He is a poor player, he struts and frets his hour upon the stage of life, he is the idiot because he was fooled, his life ends as a gust of wind blows out a candle, he goes to his dusty death, his life has been full of sound and fury, but actually it meant nothing, nothing.

So it is a tragedy because his life was worthless. He did realise this, but too late, only after his wife died, it was too late to learn, too late to change.

But comedy is different. It ends better than it starts. Why? Because we learn from life. And so we can change the future. Life is transformative. Transformative.

All of Shakespeare is about time. Time. Tik,, tok,, tik,, tok... Our life is nothing more than the passage of time, on which are threaded events. It can move fast. It can move slow. And all our yesterdays, our past and all we've lived and done, have lighted fools, have shown us, have led usfools, the way to dusty death, to our death, we crumple back into the earth as a handful of death.

Death never happens at the right moment. It is always too early, too soon. Of course! But if life has transformed us, from an imperfect creature, to perfect, we can return a better person, to our maker. Perfection. So the point of life is to improve ourselves. And in a tragedy, this is not possible. The evil is already written, it is our destiny, though we learn about it too late to change anything. We do not understand in good time.

Here again is Macbeth's last soliloquy:

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.










Wednesday, 2 March 2022

WHAT HAPPENS IN WAR (101 ECONOMICS)

3 March 2022

After a war, the losing side loses is currency. So my small investment at 259 in POLY.L is subject to big risk.

Things never go as planned in war, as we've seen, and it'll be worse than we could imagine, it's 'cos of the other side.

But the winner will be he side that can endure the most pain.

The kind of things we could see in Russia, my homework reveals, might be that it closes its markets, sets up asset price controls, changes ownerships, imposes exchange controls, and may change tax rates, limit stock market issuances and impose higher corporate tax rates.

So let's hope for a swift and sensible resolution, not too much ego please, just weigh up the costs and benefits first guys.

FUTURE OF THE UKRAINE

The Russians I'd imagine want to reduce Ukraine to rubble and leave.

I remember the romans did that in the third punic war in 146BC. Not one stone was left standing on another. It took a week to put all the inhabitants of Carthage to the sword. They were throwing them off high buildings, it was quicker.

But you know what?

Carthage was rebuilt, it became the capital of its Roman province and the third most important city of the Roman Empire.

There was a long period of prosperity from rich agricultural exports and a rich cosmopolitan culture.

Christianity came to rule and provided three popes and Augustine of Hippo. Ok Tunisia is all musulman today but that's a thousand years later...

So Ukraine will take the pain and come out better for it. Member of the EU? (After a lengthy period of procedures and protocols). Member of NATO to fight the Chinese alongside the Russians? Maybe.

Monday, 28 February 2022

ZELENSKY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE

28 February 2022

"Ukraine had a comedian who turns out to be a leader. The UK has a leader who turned out to be a comedian."

That's very funny and well put.

Zelensky is a quite remarkable and unusual person, from what I can make out.

His mother tongue is Russian. He is a Russian Jew from East Ukraine. He wanted to study in Israel, but his father forbade him this.

He stands fast in his capital city Kiev. When offered a lift out by the Americans, he replied, "I want bullets, not a taxi."

Few of us can completely escape the influence of our background and learn to think for ourselves. Perhaps in his case, it comes from the profound respect he has for the Americans - his great grandfather and three great great aunts died in the holocaust.




Sunday, 27 February 2022

THE ORIGINS OF RUSSO PHOBIA


27 February 2022

 A great presentation and question and answer session with Tom and John Measheimer. 

https://youtu.be/Nbj1AR_aAcE

One. On the origins of Russo-phobia. 

This argument from John is quite American centric. If you live in Europe, you might have a different perspective. 
But I would say from the American perspective that the dislike of Russia goes back past the Monroe doctrine to Woodrow Wilson's talk in 1916.
 And from the European point of view, you have to go all the way back past the centuries and see that the threat is almost ingrained and instinctive as it originates in a nomadic people living on the euro Asian plateau, poor steppes land, and always moving westward. These were migratory invasions, I would imagine, as perceived by the Europeans of the time. There was also Tamerlane, Genghis Khan, Marco Polo, the mongol hordes, and Josef Stalin was from Georgia.

 Two. On the other point about the part played by nuclear weapons. 

I would say that Russia and Putin see themselves as truly under a real existential threat. If Putin fails in his Ukraine invasion, surely he will be replaced, and even if he succeeds the sanctions are likely to put a lot of pressure on those who formerly supported him to get rid of the dictator. We saw in the eyes of his security council this week a lot of fear, of course, but enough to stop an assassin?
If Ukraine fails for the Russians and the States wins again, this would be fatal for Russia, surely? There's the threat of a colour revolution at home. There's the Russian power elite losing control. There's potentially a breakup of Russia itself. 
 So surely in this situation where the very existence of Russia or of Putin is threatened, Russia would play its final card and quite possibly launch a hypersonic nuclear tipped missile on Washington. They travel at 25,000 miles an hour, they are virtually undetectable, and they would take 15 minutes from launch to destroy the White House.

  Three. This brings me to a final and rather wild thought. 

If Russia ceases to exist as a country and is in some way or other taken over by democratic liberal forces, where does this leave the pivot to Asia? China would wake up with a new neighbour. Nato would have a new purpose as it would be able to encircle and menace China, this time from the North.

Putin himself explains russo-phobia by saying that the West fears Russia because of its size:
https://youtu.be/MOkl2XgZlw0
















Saturday, 26 February 2022

FIVE WAVES

26 February 2022

Well for those, like me, who thought the Americans were being alarmist and crying wolf, no, Putin invaded on 24 Feb at 03h35 UK time.

It is a war with tanks, missiles, aeriel bombardments and presumably we may soon witness house-to-house and hand-to-hand fighting in the major cities of Ukraine.

This is pre-planned as Putin invaded on Thursday but his announcement had been recorded on Monday 21st and he did write a White Paper in 2008 stating that a security zone is needed between Russia and another "strategic platform".

So Russia entered from Crimea, Belorussia and Khartif. He did a "clean" job: aeriel bombardment of key infrastructure to decapitate the Ukrainian military, troops dropped by helicopter, blackout no images.

  https://youtu.be/Nbj1AR_aAcE          

THIS WAR COULD MAKE REFUGEES OF ALL US EUROPEANS



26 February 2022

NATO advanced in five waves up to Russia's front doorstep, disregarded its 1992 assurances of neutrality, Ukraine found itself with a pro-Western govt, has never implemented its 2015 agreement to respect its 20% Russian population, was promised consideration of NATO membership in 2009.

Russia in a 2008 White Paper warned it needed a buffer zone, it took over Crimea and Donbas in 2014, presented settlement terms earlier this year, it recognised Donestk and Luhansk in 2022, it invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Russia sees its survival at issue and noone should be surprised if it puts its last card into play.

This war could completely raise Ukraine to the ground before the Russians retire leaving the West to think some more. This war could make refugees of us all.















Thursday, 24 February 2022

WHY FOLLOW THE STATES INTO YET ANOTHER WAR?

China and Russia are perhaps short-lived threats, as you've mentioned. Peter Zeihan does a demographics on each and it's not promising for them.

Plus, what is Johnson doing following Biden into war?

 There are two points here:

 America's interest (keep world free of peer competitors) is not the same as the UK's (which I make up here - security, new FTAs outside the EU, low-cost high value-added with BoP surplus, the fight against terrorism & immigration, science and technology intl co-operation incl with Russia).

And any idea on chances of success with this war?, ha ha ... 0.

Final point, ok there are three. Of course, we are getting all the propaganda conditioning us for yet another war, but, honestly, I don't give a hoot for Ukraine; and Putin can have it all, plus don't come grovelling to me Rishi for another tax rise.