UKRAINE IS A GRAVE MISTAKE

30 January 2022

Of course you can visit and holiday in Kyiv.

You think Russia will invade and start killing its brothers and sisters in the Ukraine? Well that would be a big surprise given its 10 yrs experience in Afghanistan. Surely Putin would use cyber and sanctions? If America is hell-bent on destroying Putin, invite him to invade and see what he gets from the growing nationalism of Ukraine. But continually poking Russia in the eye is madness: Putin will and is responding; the West needs him for containing the rise of China, also for the Iran and Syria questions.

Truth is, US and Russia both have masses of front line troops, Ukraine is loading up too, but it is all theatre and brinkmanship because behind those front lines there is nothing, its a potemkin army with no logistics - no field hospitals, no fuel supply pipelines, no means to take over Ukraine's transport networks. Neither side has planned for war.

We are being conned. Putin wants his security strip of former satellites and NATO and the EU want to run "democracy" up onto his front lawn. 

The real threat is in Asia: Taiwan, the nine-dot line, the rocks disputed between China and Japan. And we need Russia in the alliance.

All that is needed is for NATO to sign bits of paper saying former soviet block countries will never have certain classes of Western arms on their territory. Then America's army NATO can be converted and reformed as PTO the Pacific Treaty Organisation.

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WILL YOU VOTE FOR BORIS?

30 January 2022

The newspapers thrive on tittle tattle, or think they do, but the readers hereare accepting of Boris' faults as he is a strong leader who gets things done and with passion.

The criticism of his essentially gregarious nature overlooks his formidable project management skills, which spring from the same source. He is a dynamic and motivational leader who can reach into the hearts and minds of every last citizen, and turn around even those deeply embedded in the red wall. That's impressive.

However, not all is good with Boris. There is a dark side that focus on this trivia obscures. He has thrown Conservative beliefs and values to the four winds. We are defenceless against this big hand of government, constantly feeding us as if we were babies and at the same time watching us closely and at all times for signs of misbehaviour.

I see this growth of the state as a feature of our complex world and one that is difficult to reverse. It's happening in all modern economies.

But any politician who can convince say how they will reduce the state interference in my life, and my taxes and will restore my freedoms, that politician will get my vote.

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LET IT BE EUROPE

27 January 2022

I'm not a supporter of Macron or the EU.
But what Macron could do is double France's defence budget, using German money of course and be the EU army.
France has got everything needed for an army, but in quantities so small that after a few days it runs out and goes whining to the States.
Then, the EU could kick NATO out of Europe (lost its purpose in 1991), and the States too. It is extraordinary that Ukraine is centred on Russia and the US...where's the EU?
Then some serious attempts could be made to respect Putin, betrayed by the US and the EU, with the ultimate objective of having Russia accede to EU membership - it is a Christian country, situated in Eurasia.
The current world Order, with the dollar as reserve currency since 1945, is undergoing change. Why should this be to China's advantage when Europe has so much more to offer?

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WHAT DOES RUSSIA WANT?

         21 January 2022

Russia already has much of what it wants.

1. It has the undivided attention of the States, as in the old days pre 1991,

2. Russia has recovered the Crimea and safeguarded Russia's warm water naval base,

3. Putin continues to destabilise the Ukraine with skirmishes, part I of an invasion a cyber attack (part II would be special troops, III full invasion - this will never happen), this means Ukraine is prevented from joining NATO as NATO cannot accept applications from countries at war, and

4. he can continue to incite the attachment of the Donbas

- all this for little money, big home support, and he's working towards his long-term plan for security via control of a buffer zone between Russia and Europe/NATO.  

It is a fundamental mistake to think we should go "over there" to the source of any problem, and deal with the "root causes". That's fine for quality problems on the factory floor, but surely we have learnt by now to leave other countries and cultures alone: we should deal with these matters when they arrive in our country, and with surgical precision, not go throwing our weight around in places that are best left to sort themselves out.        

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THE TROUBLE WITH LIBERALISM

16 January 2022

I dont think it's guilt, but it is Liberalism, or a particular form of Liberalism. It is the form that puts Human Rights before Citizenship. That's the trouble. And it comes from the idea that an individual is an individual, wherever he or she may be found. 

If you give individuals everywhere the same set of human rights, then it's consistent to take down national frontiers. And while you're at it, where possible, you can go into other countries and free other peoples from dictatorship and install democracy. Why not.

We now know that all that is rubbish and an excuse for horrendous wars and that it suits international capitalism (which I'd argue isn't capitalismany more, not at all) but not the people, it doesn't suit us.

It is wrong, fundamentally wrong, because we belong to a group - the nation - first and foremost. We must put our nation first and help citizens to survive, prosper, find happiness, and have something that we can be proud of to leave as our legacy.

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PARTYGATE

13 January 2022

That's the point isn't it : what did they know that we didn't; and if they could feel safe enough to party, why did they impose those rules?

What was going on? Sounds like this could be massive for all concerned and democracy itself.

As to what this means for Boris' future, for all his faults, known to party members when they chose him, his record of winning is impressive.

 

Twice Mayor of London in a marginalists' city, the EU referendum and a stunning electoral victory, crushi g Jeremy Corbyn and Labour.

Boris got it done, contrast with May before or the lacker-lustres Gove, Truss and Sunak, tomorrow's contenders.

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SOMETHING ABOUT TRUMP

                 Whether you agree with him or not, Trump has done a pretty amazing job taking on the blob and their International Liberal Order.

Who else would want to jump into bed with the world's dictators while shunning democracies, raise protectionist tariffs and bring home the tails of America's supply chains, and exit all the West's Institutions and treaties created since 1945?

I'd also add that, big narcissist though he is, he did it because that International Liberal Order has, in his eyes, been a catastrophe as the blob (the foreign policy establishment):

- has taken America into numerous, extremely costly, wars most of which it lost in great humiliation;

- invited China into this Order, giving it Most Favoured Nation status no less, and America has been robbed blind as a result, enriching fabulously its greatest enemy putting America' very existence in peril

- and in so doing put itself into the world's greatest ever debt, risking its own reserve currency;

- it has impoverished and excluded a third of its citizens and

- saddled America, a home-loving country believe it or not, with the role of the world's policeman.

So it is quite easy to understand why - beyond his indecent personality - Trump has stirred such fear and loathing in the establishment, to the point t where many believe he was cheated out of the election and 6th January was another put-up job, and why he has such a huge and ever-loyal following.             

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INHERITANCE: ENHANCE THE FAMILY LINE

Can we hand over to the next generation a better situation than the one we inherited from the previous, or is our family in decline?

Yes, we are born into a community, we owe the community for our success, our security and our happiness; but we also owe to our family line (from ancestors, through us, to our descendants) and this is where our overall and first attachment and loyalty and our prime responsibilities lie. 

We should ensure our children have a favourable start in life, by way of education and capital or property, to permit them to enhance the family line.

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WHY ALL THE RESTRICTIONS

7 January 2022

                 To understand why politicians are attempting to perrenise the controls, you have to understand what makes them tick and why they are succeeding at the moment. They and the MSM have divided society, aided by the underlying context within which they operate, at least in the short term.

In the longer term, our freedoms and way of life are threatened by poor financials (debt), internal divisions (inequalities) and the threat of war (immigration and security).

But there are solutions, though more hope is needed - more people must believe we can overcome these end-of-cycle forces working against us and people must go to work everyday in a spirit of unity, productivity, sacrifice, thrift, patriotism, if anyone can be bothered to redress the unfolding catastrophe.

I suppose it is ultimately about leadership and vision and working to a long-term strategy. I hate to think what it would be like for our children and future generations, if we lose. If we win through, it could win the West and our children another hundred years of prosperity and security as world hegemon.

WHAT MAKES POLITICIANS TICK

Well, there's the basic drive for power - getting access to the resources to change things your way and push people around - this is the drive that takes certain types into politics.

Covid presented the perfect opportunity. And once taken, power is not normally just handed back.

It was a fine opportunity to distract with the left hand.

THE WORK OF THE MSM

Then there is the MSM to exploit people's dissatisfaction and sell copy. 

POOR FINANCIALS

Underlying all this is the debt and inequality gap. The financial are now very bad, we are nearing the end of a classic cycle. This one started in 1945. They all end this way.

Debt and internal division. 

INTERNAL DIVISIONS

The MSM wind everything up, divide and make hysterical. The more militant extremes too have profited, opposing moderation, and winning the arguments, taking out the centre ground.

 

EXTERNAL THREATS

Plus The Rising Power, looking on, biding its time.

There are things that can be done!

Restore personal liberties, shri k the state, lower taxes. This is what made The West Great, or was the backdrop.

SOLUTIONS

It is possible to find a balance where people earn more than they spend and this horrendous debt gets paid off.

But it needs a united front. There are enormous "cultural" differences within our society to overcome. And the widening inequality gap, caused by central bank printing, needs to be closed.

THE GOOD OUTCOMES

Then you might get some security at home and even some patriotism (a notion that makes people rear up and laugh, ok I understand). That's about support for the ultimate unit in international politics: the nation-state. No rising power would dare risk a conflict, they'd be annihilated.

IT TAKES LEADERSHIP AND VISION AND A SERIOUS STRATEGY

In the unlikely case that The West could find leaders capable of implementing this long-term vision, we'd get another 100 years as world hegemon ... enough to see enough generations , starting with our children, through to prosperity, security, happiness and hopefully their own legacy.

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HISTORY WARNS THE EU

5 January 2022

The EU is committed to federalism, I'm stating the obvious, but what isn't always appreciated is that this flows from what are really, American ideas of international liberalism.

After the war, European countries were strongly encouraged to join up, NATO was created, along with a host of international institutions - the UN, World Bank,  IMF, WTO-GATT.

Once the USA was free to pursue its ideals of human rights and democracy after the cold war, we got Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Libya  We also have America breaking its commitmentsto Russia and marching NATO up to Russua's front lawn, and the EU picking off former soviet satellites from what Russia thought was its buffer zone. Then came 2008 and 2014 and today it is plain that intl liberalism is in deroute: Crimea is gone forever and America essentially wants to stay at home, safe between two moats and friendly Canada and Mexico North and South.

We also got Russian interference in American elections, ie in its sovereignty. Alerica strongly refuses this because America is a very nationalistic country. And what country isn't ?

There are two lessons from all this for the EU  First, nationalism trumps liberalism. Second, be careful what you wish for because America, following all these defeats is today a very divided country, some would say on the brink of civil war.

To summarise the above, there is a blunt lesson from history for the EU: stop interfering in UK affairs or you will reap the whirlwind.

So, in all clashes between international liberalism (open borders, open markets, universal human rights) and nationalism (nation, culture, citizens first), nationalism has always ultimately emerged victorious.

We need the EU but not the ECJ. The EU is a very good idea But all the areas of mutual benefit - security, law enforcement, welfare, education, fiscal, customs ... - can be picked off one-by-one by agreement netween consenting nations. We don't need a top-down boot camp regime. 

There is no question the EU Order cannot survive in its current imperialist format. The current trickle of national objections - Germany, Poland, Romania, Lithuania - will become a torrent and the top down imposition of control by legal and financial sanctions will be adapted to a bottom up co-operation by mutual benefits-sharing.             

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POLITICAL TOUCHSTONES

1 January 2022

We need to periodically check our political leaders' lists of impressive achievements against our fundamental first principles. Of course, plenty of contradictions, but...

Do they:

Enhance our personal liberty, free us from overly-oppressive human rights obligations?

Reduce the wealth gap, make for a more equal society, enhance equality of opportunity, share profits fairly between capitalists and workers, reduce internal conflict / civil war

Keep / reduce debt to manageable levels

Shrink the state

Enable the private sector to best allocate capital, innovate, improve use of technology, enhance productivity

Strengthen our national defences, power soft and hard, safeguard our borders, our culture?             

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