Monday, 20 December 2021
WHEN ATTACKED BY A DOG
19 December 2021
If they are attacking rather than just biting and holding, grab the skin at the back of their head, so they can't shake. Hitting them, gouging their eyes, or otherwise hurting them, is more likely to make them double down and start trying to shake you rather than release you.
Covering their eyes can help make them momentarily release, if you can use a towel or t-shirt to cover their head, that works well. But it'll only give you a brief window of opportunity.
Saturday, 18 December 2021
THE THAI GOVT WANTS TO END MASS TOURISM
18 December 2021
https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2021/12/17/thailand-again-signals-end-of-mass-tourism-thai-examiner/
Instead of closing down a successful sector of the economy, mass tourism, as this article from The Thai Examiner suggests, the Thai govt could try first to create a new and promising sector or sectors.
For example, in 1979, Deng Xiaoping visited America to meet Pres. Clinton. He was the People's Republic of China chairman from December 1978 to November 1989. He had seen Japan, S Korea and Taiwan becoming immensely rich and wanted to know more. China was at that time following the Russian USSR ideology.
In 1980, China was awarded Most Favoured Nation status. A rare and extremely valuable honour.
The rest, as they say, is history.
Now, of course, there is an even bigger and wealthier middle class. And it is not in America.
It's in China.
What does the Chinese middle class want? Well, Thailand could find out and get manufacturing.
Monday, 13 December 2021
ALDOUS HUXLEY
https://youtu.be/alasBxZsb40
Saturday, 11 December 2021
THE PANDEMIC WILL BE OVER BY VALENTINES
Omicron looks like it could be a busted flush: yes, transmission is more rapid; yes, immune escape doubles number of infections; but no, it is near harmless, Putin called it "a natural vaccine".
Sajid Javid, 10 December : "Very soon, in the days and weeks that lie ahead, if, as I think is likely, we see many more infections and this variant [omincron] becomes the dominant variant, there will be less need to have any kind of travel restrictions at all."
News from Guatang 9 December:
This from a doctor in Gauteng, yesterday 9 December
The case for immune escape and quick spread is well made. The important remaining attribute is virulence, deadliness, morbidity, whatever we decide to call it. Is it sufficiently milder to the degree that it makes up for many people getting the disease at the same time? The data we have from a territory already overrun with infections suggests an overwhelming yes.
The data from the Gauteng province in South Africa, a real life case study of 15 million people, is that the degree to which symptoms are less severe more than make up for the immune escape and increased transmissibility that would otherwise have been a concern. And that is in a much less vaccinated population. Hospitals are still performing elective surgeries at full capacity. I can assure you in Covid waves in SA that has not been the norm.
Case growth has now slowed substantially in this province in the span of a week, indicating that cases are about to peak. Goverment modelling is 2nd week of December, the independent Discovery Group modelling was similar.
That would be the first Covid wave since the start of the pandemic, that has peaked without a surge in oxygen use. The CEO of the largest private hospital group Netcare says with few exceptions, most will probably be cared for in primary care in this wave. His observations are consistent with published data, consistent with Mediclinic (2nd largest group), and consistent with the SAMRC study in state hospitals.
I don't think people let it sink in what that means. As per my other comment below, 1 million cases per day, as scary as it sounds, is not a problem if the difference in severity is what has been observed. Even if all the above on symptoms is complete hogwash, the strain is so transmissible that these measures won't make any difference.
1 million per day is not as bad as it sounds if the reduction in severity is as substantial as it appears to be.
The Gauteng province in South Africa has over 10 000 reported cases per day, if we assume 1 in 20 detection rate as Javid does for the UK (optimistic for SA, but argument's sake let's do), then the province has 200,000 cases per day, 5 times less than a million, in a population that is also about 5 times less than the UK.
Hospitals are far from full, the rise there was was mostly due to incidental positives amongst patients admitted for other reasons. Numbers are still lower than the lows of the 2nd/3rd inter wave period.
Elective surgeries are happening, oxygen demand has not surged at all.
The one link below is the largest private hospital group, the second a study by the SA Medical Research Council in state hospitals. They independently observed the same thing:
https://businesstech.co.za/news/lifestyle/545230/omicron-symptoms-are-far-milder-says-netcare/
https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features
Case numbers, now almost 100% Omicron, have gone through the roof in Gauteng, not "early days" anymore.
Sage says even with a modest reduction in severity, hospitals will face pressure due to sheer numbers.
The Gauteng province has those sheer numbers. But yet the hospitals are not facing any pressure whatsoever, in fact it does not look like the midst of a Covid wave.
The reduction in severity is not modest, it is an irrational assumption given the evidence. South Africa is not the UK, true. It is much less vaccinated, and it has not had a wave driven by the Alpha variant, which is also the B.1.1 lineage like Omicron, and prevalence of HIV is high. All of these differences, if anything, favours the UK.
HAS THE EU STOPPED WAR IN EUROPE?
11 December 2021
It's not as simple as political differences that create
war. Europe has had nothing but wars- first religious wars and colonial,
then liberalism fascist communist, now federalism nationalism, and
currently woke gender race sex religion.
It's economic, material, interests and the nature of man (for it is usually men).
The EU are under the illusion that their expensive
interfering talking shop defused the drive for military action, but
actually it's because democracies don't go to war with each other, NATO
keeps the peace and economic integration is so near complete.
The only thing that has surprised me is that the elites lost to Brexit, but that hasn't led to war-war. 
Thursday, 9 December 2021
HOW TO MANAGE A COMPLAINER
Constant negativity about everything, always wanting to-be more negative than anyone else,
But you know what? She thinks she is the victim of bad things happening in the world - she herself is NOT a negative person!
No point in telling her how lucky she's been in life as she will just tell you more of the bad things that have happened toher, to convince you!!
Maybe find a parable to help her understand?
Better to agree with her. Then when she knows you understand, you can change the subject to something happier. That is the trick.
Someone who complains all the time is someone who finds life full of problems. That is her character and you won't change it. She wants to share, but isn't looking for solutions. She wants you to agree - then she'll feel better.
Of course, sometimes it is a genuine complaint. So then, you can genuinely sympathise and - because it is real - you can very briefly offer a real-world solution.
But you know what? She thinks she is the victim of bad things happening in the world - she herself is NOT a negative person!
No point in telling her how lucky she's been in life as she will just tell you more of the bad things that have happened toher, to convince you!!
Maybe find a parable to help her understand?
Better to agree with her. Then when she knows you understand, you can change the subject to something happier. That is the trick.
Someone who complains all the time is someone who finds life full of problems. That is her character and you won't change it. She wants to share, but isn't looking for solutions. She wants you to agree - then she'll feel better.
Of course, sometimes it is a genuine complaint. So then, you can genuinely sympathise and - because it is real - you can very briefly offer a real-world solution.
Wednesday, 1 December 2021
MY LIFE IS MY OWN
30 November 2021
"I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own."
THE FRANCE ZEMMOUR SEEKS TO SAVE (RHETORICAL DEVICES)
A STUDY IN RHETORIC
30 November 2021
Zemmour: journalist, polemicist, presidential candidate...His candidacy speech embraces you, oppresses you, haunts you, rallies you. It's a masterpiece in the use of rhetoric.
https://youtu.be/k8IGBDK1BH8
He appears speaking behind a huge mike and in front of ancient books stacked on shelves, reminding us of De Gaulle's wartime calls for resistance (Appeal of June 18 by General de Gaulle).
He begins by telling us his mission, which is to save France from decline "so that our daughters don't have to wear headscarves and our sons don't have to be submissive".
"I understood that no politician would have the courage to save the country from the tragic fate that awaited it. I understood that all these supposedly competent people were mostly helpless [...] That in all parties, they were content with reforms while time is running out. It is no longer time to reform France, but to save it.
I therefore decided to stand for the presidential election."
If you want to know more about how he uses repetition (1), insistence (2), the transfer of allegiance from "you" to "we" (3), mirroring (4), tirades of accumulation (5), assonance (a rhythm of similar sounds) (6) dramatic background music (7):
Do you remember the country you knew in your childhood? Do you remember the country your parents described to you? Do you remember the country you find in the movies?
2. Accumulation, insistence
our lifestyles, our traditions, our language, our conversations, our controversies on history or fashion, our taste for literature and gastronomy
Joan of Arc, Pasteur, de Gaulle, Molière or even Notre Dame and village churches: all these figures are associated with the word "country". This word is repeated 24 times in two minutes.
The powerful, the elites, the well-meaning, the journalists, the politicians, the academics , the sociologists, the trade unionists, the religious authorities.
The country of Joan of Arc and Louis XIV [..] of knights and gentes dames [..] fables of La Fontaine, characters of Molière and verses of Racine
https://youtu.be/hphXPJJMl7g
3. From "you" to "we" - pushing you to side with him
You walk [..] you look at your screens [...] you take subways [...] you wait for your daughter or your son at the end of school ...
And it's why we must [...], and it's why we must [...], and it's why we must [...], and it's why we must [...],
A chacun son rôle, à chacun son métier, à chacun son combat
We must give back the power to the people, take it back from minorities that oppress the majority.
4. Mirroring
You have not left your country, but it is as if your country has left you. You are exiles from within.
You were despised [...] but you understood that it was they who were the bait, it was they who had everything wrong, it was they who were harming you
5. Tirade
The French people have been intimidated, paralyzed, indoctrinated, made to feel guilty
For a thousand years, we have been one of the powers that have written the history of the world. We will be worthy of our ancestors. We will not allow ourselves to be dominated, vassalized, conquered, colonized. We will not let ourselves be replaced
6. Assonance, alliteration
Rééquilibrer...réduire....ramener... redonner
"S" and "P" c'est pourquoi
7. Dramatic music background
Rather ironic this as the music is not from French culture, it is the adagio of the 7th Symphony of the German composer Ludwig van Beethoven, also used in The speech of a king, a British made film.
is.gd/mMZ3Wz
8. Black n white photos
He contrasts a past glorious France, using black and white images of black and white of Jean Gabin, Alain Delon, Brigitte Bardot, Johnny Halliday, Charles Aznavour, Georges Brassens, Barbara; with scenes of violence and social unrest from today.
Thursday, 18 November 2021
THE UKRAINE
18 November 2021
How likely is a military attack, in reality, and what is Russia really looking to achieve? Is Putin leveraging the energy weapon to try to reverse Europe’s green deal or is this really about preparations for an attack on Ukraine?
Russia is a declining super-power, with an aging population, GDP smaller than Italy's and a narrow economic base.
This creates continuing identity, status and security issues at home and abroad.
So
it is neither as secure as other established states, nor as
economically dynamic as rising national powers I Europe and further
East.
Its region is the former USSR and its status as regional hegemon rests on its permanent membership of the UN, its nuclear arsenal and its laurels as a former empire.
20 December 2021
Ref the WA and NIP.
It is not really fair to say that the UK is breaking a treaty which it had itself only just signed. There are many reasons why countries break treaties, but let's just look at some historical precedents.
The treaty of Versailles was drafted by the UK and signed by Germany without Russia even being present. Both Germany and Russia were flat on their backs. Some say this treaty was far too harsh and provoked the Germans, while others say it was not enforced as it should have been by the British.
Fact is, from 1922 onwards, the uk attempted to undermine the treaty, its own treaty, and re-integrate Germany. This culminated in Chamberlain's brilliant but failed Munich visit. (Remember, we are told that Chamberlain should have made a deal with Russia, but then as he had said to his sister, "how would I then get the Russians out of central Europe?").
All consider the reunification of Germany. Russia agreed to this and to accepting the debts of its former satellites as well as their now being independent sovereign states, if it could keep its seat on the security council. Of course, it hadn't much choice. But when it did, it reintegrated the Crimea, in defiance of I to law, and is working on the rest.
The UK similarly with this withdrawal agreement and the NIP. The UK government t had little choice at the time, but now it does.
Let's not be too innocent of the workings of great power politics.