ZEMMOUR ON BREXIT AS APPLIED TO FRANCE

14 November 2021

Frexit is not possible.

Asked about the Macron administration’s apparent desire to “punish” the UK over Brexit and, as his prime minister recently put it, to “show there is more damage to leaving the Union than staying in it”, he was scathing.

“That is the criminal mistake of the French government and European Commission. The British, inventors of modern democracy, left because they could no longer take being tyrannised by Brussels technocrats and European judges.

“Instead of seeking to understand the reasons why, the French government wants to punish them. It’s stupid and shows they have understood nothing of the current period, where similar sentiments are cropping up throughout Europe,” he said.

But he stopped short of calling for France to leave the EU.

“This period is over. France isn’t England,” he said. “We don’t have the same geography and history as you. You won all your wars and that’s not our case. We lost, won and lost and that has given our people a different intuition and sensitivity.

“You have faith in yourselves that we once had but lost. So I think the French people are not mature for this type of adventure.”

https://youtu.be/hIkdW1emHpc

https://youtu.be/uUuBI3f-UEA

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STUDENT LOANS

University students are the very lifeblood of the UK economy. 

This govt under johnson is splashing cash around to many millions of worthless types, like there is no tomorrow, which there may well not be; it is letting thousands more worthless types scramble up UK beaches every week to join their friends in luxury hotel accomodation, at my expense, while awaiting their passports.

And you mean to tell me the govt makes these kids pay for a world-beating education? And pay again in higher tax take? And pay again and again in housing costs inflated by reckless monetary policies, in order for these students to provide a prosperous future for us all and intelligent home-grown talent for generations to come ?

How does education help a country? The level of education is measurable. It is a leading indicator of a country's success relative to other countries. Because an educated workforce opens the door to science, innovation and technology. Technology, in turn, is the bedrock for a competitive economy. So in cause-effect chains, begin by educating your children and your workforce. The effect will be greater productivity through mass-scale application of scientific discovery, which is called technology. This results in a world beating, export-led economy.

I am a believer in a small state with low taxes, but charging individual youngsters for an investment in this country's future is not going to make us great.

Education is a common good. You cannot foresee those, amongst a rising generation, generation Y, will go on to produce world beating ideas, technologies and leadership. If you cannot pick winners at school, you must educate all and not restrict education to, or encourage only, only those who can pay. Student loans squander our future and the futures of our kids. 

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END THIS EU INTERFERENCE

10 November 2021

Look, you cannot have an outside entity imposing a customs border down the middle of a sovereign state. Neither can you have an outside entity assuming the powers of a supreme Court over a sovereign state.

It was agreed to to avoid a hard border between UK and EU and a potential return of "the troubles" (those in the South of the island objecting to those in the North remaining attached to Britain).

Agreed to, but only if checks were kept reasonable.

It was a desperate situation the UK found itself in and the EU have exacerbated this to the max for purely political purposes: they want to show other members of their alliance that quitting carries a greater cost than staying. They are sad and jealous and fearful of an independent UK.

Cause of war.  It is not just absurd to have the EU interfere in the UK's affairs of state (it is not just customs, it goes as far as competition and state subsidy policies), but totally intolerable to have the EU twist the knife in this deep wound.

Solution.  Put the border where it belongs and administer controls through advanced notice of border crossings, electronic surveillance at the time of crossing, flying customs checks that can take place on any kerbside (see Andorra-France for model).

Plus, an independent dispute resolution panel to which the EU (ECJ) is welcome to argue its case.

This is nothing more than common sense and mutual respect.

The alternative of the EU building control towers inside its border is too horrible to contemplate, even though walls seem to be going up everywhere. The EU playing a Belarus at the NI frontier is another potential horror that I wouldn't put past them frankly.

At the moment, it seems like the extremists are in charge.

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BREXIT TRADE WARS

The key point is the threat of war. Not real war of course, but a trade war. So what would this look like?

The EU has previous as it triggered article 16 over its sense in January that the UK was smuggling vaccine supplies out of its AZ factories in  Belgium. What shocked many of us was that the measures in the Brexit protocol designed to protect peace in Northern Ireland were here being repurposed in a completely different theatre of war.

If (when) the UK uses art. 16, it is very likely the EU will announce plans to suspend the trade agreement altogether. Under the rules, the EU’s response must be proportionate.

It could, for example, target Scotland by inposing tariffs on  Scottish salmon and Scotch whisky just to further wind up Holyrood-Westminster relations. In the dispute with the US over steel and other products, the EU imposed a 56% tariff on Harley-Davidson bikes and levies on bourbon, peanut butter and jeans, targetting Trump-supporting states.

The fishing row has focused minds on the impact on consumers when France threatened to check every lorry coming from Britain into European ports. We were even regaled with absurd stories of EU officials confiscating ham sandwiches and refusing forms sincerely filled inwith the wrong coloured ink.

If France, Ireland and the Benelux countries really do stop every lorry, supply chains before Christmas would be severely stretched. This would indeed be a declaration of war on the people of the UK. That would be a bridge too far.  

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NEW TAPERING

120 billion dollars a month on asset purchases. Hard to get your head round that and how artificial the market has become. Maybe it's just Keynsian!

It seems weird, but these govts think that debt is absolutely no problem, they will never default, and the markets know this, because they can print the repayments.

They also think that what they print is owed to them (!), it is a call they have on us through taxation, that we have no choice but to pay.

The only limit to printing is, these govts think, from inflation, as demand starts to outstrip supply (of goods, capital, labour).

So as reality (inflation) is now undermining their principles, will they change their theory? No no no, just deny that there is any inflation.

We hope they're right, and inflation really is temporary while demand/supply gets back into balance.

But as a warning, from what I read, equities will generally suffer if inflation gets to 5%.

Aaaah, I hear you say, is that: RPI, CPI or CPIH? And how are they fiddled.

So what will get us? Debt? Covid? Climate change? Net zero? The Chinese?

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MORE ABOUT "THE NEW NORMAL"

4 November 2021

"what a complete pile of delusional nonsense ..  what does this so called "NEW NORMAL" actually mean?"

Please add a little water to whatever you are drinking!

"New normal" means the changes in how we live due to the virus, that look like becoming permanent. 

For example, most people in public enclosed spaces will continue to wear a mask. Another example: we replumbed the Internet so people could work from home (WFH) and where that's been an improvement (less journey time, less costly office space, for an improved productivity), it's likely to stay.  Some jokingly call it "living at work".

For the travel and tourism business, looks like passengers will expect temperature-checking, infection testing, more safety and hygiene at airports, on flights, no meals, controls on how you can use spacewhat, 

a more eco-conscious mindset, no more 9 to 5, more tech supporting change (as always) eg online application for e-visas.

Not all changes will stick because the success of vaccine programs will mean we can return to the old normal, how things used to be. E.g. planes won't be flying half empty anymore.

And there are other motors for change going on at the same time - climate-change & net-zero, Wokism - that mix in with changes in our behaviour introduced by covid - eg people will holiday nearer home, more interference from governments in citizens' freedoms, higher taxes to pay for the fight against the virus.

Change is constant, but covid, climate change and the woke are fast changing how we do things...and these changes look like being here to stay. These new ways of daily living are called "The New Normal".

The TAT is trying to understand these changes so as to adapt Thai tourism. 

One big big change is to recognise that visitor numbers are likely to be permanently down. If tourism's contribution to GDP is to return to the old normal, each tourist must spend more (that'sthe Thai way of thinking). Hence a move from mass tourism to millionaire tourism.

Will plans for millionaire tourism work out? Or are they, as you suggest,  "delusional"? That's a good question!

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COMMANDO LESSONS WE CAN ALL USE

3 November 2021

Commando training lessons we can all use

1. To ensure long-term success, you need to be able to adapt and change quickly. It’s the best way to be sure of sustained personal growth.
2. There are two kinds of motivation – intrinsic (when you understand that a task, such as exercise, is doing you good) and extrinsic (when you gain a reward such as money for work). The key is to create a crossover, when a task performed for money or a favour becomes an enjoyable discipline that you can appreciate is doing you good.
3. Never lose sight of the end goal and load it with value, writing down the positives and repeatedly visualising life after your goal has been achieved. This will steady the ship when temporary disillusionment creeps in.
4. It is what you do in the shadows that makes you unstoppable when the spotlight is on; master the mundane and the easy, enjoyable aspects of life become effortless.
5. In new environments or situations of restricted living means, it is essential to “take charge of what you can control’ and ‘establish new routines”. Don’t succumb to new surroundings, own them.

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CARE IN THE HOME OR CARE IN A HOME?

3 November 2021

In weighing up the two options, as well as the wishes of the elderly person, consider the standard of care on offer, the stress on the family and the costs.

A few points worth making.

The standards in care homes are high these days, thanks to the CQC. And the owners of care homes are not ripping off their guests, though they are in business.

Care at home can easily come to be twice as expensive as care in a home - £8k a month v. £4k in a typical home.

When the older person bought their home, they probably did so on a mortgage of three times salary. Today that's seven. The home is a family asset and a family fortune should not be squandered as it will be needed by the grandchildren to start their own families.

Trying to care for someone at home, when you have no experience and busy lives, can really tear a family apart.

Best to choose a friendly home nearby where you can visit and enjoy each other's company, as far as possible. The standards of care will be consistently higher. And the costs will be lower.

The older person will adapt more easily if done gently and in good time. And they should be happier in a well-run and social environment.

Let your decision come from a fair evaluation of the options rather than emotions such as (quite possibly misplaced) guilt. Remember that the future belongs to those who remain. The interests, wants and needs of all involved count. 

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TEN RULES FOR EVERY TRADER

10 Rules For Every Trader

These are rules handed down, honed and handed on.

Trading. So, not investing, not gambling either.

1. Price doesn't HAVE to do ANYTHING.

A common misconception among very new traders is that skilled traders are able to 'predict' the market. This is not true. This is not even possible. As a trader, your job is to deal in probabilities and risk-management

2. Ranges are more common than breakouts.

In any given market, for every successful breakout and acceptance of new price, you will find 3-5 failed breakouts. New traders often prefer breakout trades because they happen fast, they're exciting, and there's a certain thrill to profiting off of a sudden move that you know caught a lot of other traders with their pants down. Remember that price action stays rangebound by default, until a demand imbalance pushes the auction process to a new range. Range bound trading is a boring grind, but it's also the easiest money you'll make a boring grind, but it's also the easiest money you'll make.

3. You will be wrong at least 50% of the time. Keep your risk tight!

So, it's not necessarily true that you'll be wrong more than you are right, however as a new trader it's highly probable. This is however the mindset that I adopt when I am evaluating the risk of a potential trade. With any trade I take, I assume that I've got a greater chance of being wrong than being right. When you think about your trading this way, I guarantee that you'll tighten up your risk management game.

4. Check your ego at the door.

You're here to make money. That's all. The market is not here to offer you self-validation. The market doesn't care about your need to prove anything. Stay humble, and always keep the possibility of being wrong in the forefront of your mind

5. Take what is offered.

This goes hand in hand with rule one and rule four. A common saying is 'follow the signals, not the cents'. I've let winners turn into losers in the past because I FELT (rule 4) like price action HAD (rule 1) to go farther before rolling over. Take what the market offers, and see the next rule.

6. There will ALWAYS be another opportunity.

FOMO (fear of missing out) is very real. It will also lead you to get cut to pieces in a leveraged market. If you missed your ideal entry, don't chase. You didn't just miss the last and only good trade in the world. Think of your risk capital like ammunition. Save it for tomorrow

7. Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers.

What more can I say? If you're adding to a losing position with the intent to move your average entry price, you're already in trouble. Every time you think about adding to a position, I want you to hear this rule in your head. "Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers." Close that losing trade. Save your capital for the next opportunity.

8. Be greedy with your entries: fight for price.

If your trading thesis requires price to reach a certain level to validate your entry criteria, then wait for that level. Remember, don't FOMO into a trade. See rule six.

9. Be patient with your entries: Being early is the same as being wrong.

Similar to rule 8, no FOMO! Have you ever taken a trade and then been stopped out before the market makes the move you were expecting? You're trying to predict the market instead of reacting to what it is showing you. Slow down, and remember that acceptance of price is validated by both time and volume .

10. Hope is NOT a strategy!

This is the difference between trading and gambling. Good trading looks very boring. As a general rule of thumb, if it's exciting, you're probably gambling and not trading. If you don't have a solid 'if this, then that' thesis about the market you're looking to trade, then you don't have a trade to make

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BIG BROTHER BORIS

Fortunately alternatives to big brother Boris are coming through

Farage was rather an Arthur Daly type figure, or a silky-tongued used car salesman.

Farage, now I think about it, was always kicking the tyres of govt and finding fault. He was pretty much always right, but he didn't have a coherent alternative.

There are serious politicians in that they have a vision. Trice  Burnham (Labour). Reform. 

The Tory party was founded on the idea that now we are giving the vote to the working classes, so we must buy them out, in order that we can get on with private enterprise. That's the vision and the values: they're private sector, small state, freedom, low taxes, survival of the fittest.

Those ideas are exactly the opposite of Boris'. Boris' mission, what he's doing, he wants to take over everywhere and spend everything on a perpetual party. He's totally got the wrong end of the stick  He is a ruinous person. Power has gone to his head and transformed the clown into a megalomaniac.

Pretty soon we'll see tall buildings draped with his image.

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0 STRATEGIC DEFINITION

29 October 2021

stage 0

1 Strategic Definition 

1.1 Purpose

By the end of this stage 0, you will have identified and made the business case V1 for purchasing a property and established the objectives and risks for rehabing works. Begin writing down your MVV and budget and configuring the Property Selector tool ready to log the start-up data for a list of candidate properties.

The Strategic Definition stage 0 is about finding the property opportunity, identifying high-level rehab requirements, the resources required to achieve the project objectives, the project risks and the project costs and timescale. These are V1 estimates that you will return to in further iterations in subsequent stages.

It needs strategic thinking ie forming a long-term vision and mapping whatever resources you can get hold of to take you from the as-is property as it is when you buy it, to the to-be rehab ready for handover and use. ‘Use’ may be sale, rental or owner-occupation.

1.2 Steps

Here are the steps in this phase.

1. The starting point is an understanding of your Mission Vision Values. 

‘Mission’ is what you can do (property: buy, improve, use)

‘Vision’ is where you want to be (own architecture practise / regular property upgrades).

‘Values’ are your ethical guides or the standards that govern your motivation, thinking and actions. Values come from how you were brought up and what have learnt in life.

2. You need an idea of what you are looking for, your Search criteria. These will be about the property and its environs, your spend envelope and the value you expect to achieve. 

3. A quick Condition survey or rough schedule of dilapidations will let you estimate the cost of the works and will start the property rehab Requirements definition for the chosen property. These V1 requirements will later feed into detailed drawings and spec.s and quantity surveying, before being ready for putting out to tender.

4. How long do you expect the project to last? This will support the initial Project Plan. And how much do you have to spend? This is your Budget. 

The condition survey, will get broken out by phase and trade and will help with eg establishing your maximum auction bid, the borrowing you might need and for how long, affordable procurement, staged payments you make to contractors as the work proceeds…

5. You need to appreciate what you personally can do, as a function of your skills & competencies and your availability; and what competencies you will need to call in. 

What sort of abilities does stage 0 require? Stage 0 requires strategic thinking, some management consulting expertise (how organisations and project work), whole life-cycle analysis (purchase, rehab, maintenance, disposal), sustainability guidance (“meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”: energy source, flexibility and durability, waste management, water management, material selection and pollution), whole life-cycle analysis, sustainability guidance, financial modelling, design thinking

You will be making the property function your way (electrics, plumbing, roof and external walls…), but there are also non-functional requirements such as health and safety and many planning and building regulations (constraints) to adhere to. 

You will assemble a Project Team, including perhaps a named resource at the local authority (planning, building reg.s). The roles and responsibilities vary through the phases and one person may wear several hats. Be clear by naming these positions, creating a profile, identifying who makes the decisions, how they can be changed (change control), who does the actions, and in what format instructions will be issued.

You will need a Communication Plan and a meeting room, likely digital, to exchange and store information.

6. You will benefit at all times from Feedback from your studies (skills) and experience (competencies), and from competent people whom you can freely consult with on other projects (experts, maybe from work).

7. There should be a go/no-go Milestone Review. A thumbs-up and you can move to the next stage - a building project has been set up and different skills will then be needed.

1.3 Deliverables

• Requirements – used for project execution: quality, change control

• Light Business Case – used for managing the project: cost, timescale.

1.4 Supporting Tools

• Property Selector

• Templates

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