Tuesday, 2 November 2021

TEN RULES FOR EVERY TRADER



10 Rules For Every Trader

These are rules handed down, honed and handed on.
Trading. So, not investing, not gambling either.


1. Price doesn't HAVE to do ANYTHING.
A common misconception among very new traders is that skilled traders are able to 'predict' the market. This is not true. This is not even possible. As a trader, your job is to deal in probabilities and risk-management

2. Ranges are more common than breakouts.
In any given market, for every successful breakout and acceptance of new price, you will find 3-5 failed breakouts. New traders often prefer breakout trades because they happen fast, they're exciting, and there's a certain thrill to profiting off of a sudden move that you know caught a lot of other traders with their pants down. Remember that price action stays rangebound by default, until a demand imbalance pushes the auction process to a new range. Range bound trading is a boring grind, but it's also the easiest money you'll make a boring grind, but it's also the easiest money you'll make.

3. You will be wrong at least 50% of the time. Keep your risk tight!
So, it's not necessarily true that you'll be wrong more than you are right, however as a new trader it's highly probable. This is however the mindset that I adopt when I am evaluating the risk of a potential trade. With any trade I take, I assume that I've got a greater chance of being wrong than being right. When you think about your trading this way, I guarantee that you'll tighten up your risk management game.

4. Check your ego at the door.
You're here to make money. That's all. The market is not here to offer you self-validation. The market doesn't care about your need to prove anything. Stay humble, and always keep the possibility of being wrong in the forefront of your mind

5. Take what is offered.
This goes hand in hand with rule one and rule four. A common saying is 'follow the signals, not the cents'. I've let winners turn into losers in the past because I FELT (rule 4) like price action HAD (rule 1) to go farther before rolling over. Take what the market offers, and see the next rule.

6. There will ALWAYS be another opportunity.
FOMO (fear of missing out) is very real. It will also lead you to get cut to pieces in a leveraged market. If you missed your ideal entry, don't chase. You didn't just miss the last and only good trade in the world. Think of your risk capital like ammunition. Save it for tomorrow

7. Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers.
What more can I say? If you're adding to a losing position with the intent to move your average entry price, you're already in trouble. Every time you think about adding to a position, I want you to hear this rule in your head. "Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers." Close that losing trade. Save your capital for the next opportunity.

8. Be greedy with your entries: fight for price.
If your trading thesis requires price to reach a certain level to validate your entry criteria, then wait for that level. Remember, don't FOMO into a trade. See rule six.

9. Be patient with your entries: Being early is the same as being wrong.
Similar to rule 8, no FOMO! Have you ever taken a trade and then been stopped out before the market makes the move you were expecting? You're trying to predict the market instead of reacting to what it is showing you. Slow down, and remember that acceptance of price is validated by both time and volume .
10. Hope is NOT a strategy!
This is the difference between trading and gambling. Good trading looks very boring. As a general rule of thumb, if it's exciting, you're probably gambling and not trading. If you don't have a solid 'if this, then that' thesis about the market you're looking to trade, then you don't have a trade to make


Saturday, 30 October 2021

BIG BROTHER BORIS

Fortunately alternatives to big brother Boris are coming through

Farage was rather an Arthur Daly type figure, or a silky-tongued used car salesman.

Farage, now I think about it, was always kicking the tyres of govt and finding fault. He was pretty much always right, but he didn't have a coherent alternative.

There are serious politicians in that they have a vision. Trice  Burnham (Labour). Reform. 

The Tory party was founded on the idea that now we are giving the vote to the working classes, so we must buy them out, in order that we can get on with private enterprise. That's the vision and the values: they're private sector, small state, freedom, low taxes, survival of the fittest.

Those ideas are exactly the opposite of Boris'. Boris' mission, what he's doing, he wants to take over everywhere and spend everything on a perpetual party. He's totally got the wrong end of the stick  He is a ruinous person. Power has gone to his head and transformed the clown into a megalomaniac.

Pretty soon we'll see tall buildings draped with his image.

Friday, 29 October 2021

0 STRATEGIC DEFINITION

29 October 2021

stage 0

1 Strategic Definition 
1.1 Purpose

By the end of this stage 0, you will have identified and made the business case V1 for purchasing a property and established the objectives and risks for rehabing works. Begin writing down your MVV and budget and configuring the Property Selector tool ready to log the start-up data for a list of candidate properties.
The Strategic Definition stage 0 is about finding the property opportunity, identifying high-level rehab requirements, the resources required to achieve the project objectives, the project risks and the project costs and timescale. These are V1 estimates that you will return to in further iterations in subsequent stages.
It needs strategic thinking ie forming a long-term vision and mapping whatever resources you can get hold of to take you from the as-is property as it is when you buy it, to the to-be rehab ready for handover and use. ‘Use’ may be sale, rental or owner-occupation.
1.2 Steps
Here are the steps in this phase.

1. The starting point is an understanding of your Mission Vision Values. 

‘Mission’ is what you can do (property: buy, improve, use)
‘Vision’ is where you want to be (own architecture practise / regular property upgrades).
‘Values’ are your ethical guides or the standards that govern your motivation, thinking and actions. Values come from how you were brought up and what have learnt in life.

2. You need an idea of what you are looking for, your Search criteria. These will be about the property and its environs, your spend envelope and the value you expect to achieve. 

3. A quick Condition survey or rough schedule of dilapidations will let you estimate the cost of the works and will start the property rehab Requirements definition for the chosen property. These V1 requirements will later feed into detailed drawings and spec.s and quantity surveying, before being ready for putting out to tender.

4. How long do you expect the project to last? This will support the initial Project Plan. And how much do you have to spend? This is your Budget. 

The condition survey, will get broken out by phase and trade and will help with eg establishing your maximum auction bid, the borrowing you might need and for how long, affordable procurement, staged payments you make to contractors as the work proceeds…

5. You need to appreciate what you personally can do, as a function of your skills & competencies and your availability; and what competencies you will need to call in. 
What sort of abilities does stage 0 require? Stage 0 requires strategic thinking, some management consulting expertise (how organisations and project work), whole life-cycle analysis (purchase, rehab, maintenance, disposal), sustainability guidance (“meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”: energy source, flexibility and durability, waste management, water management, material selection and pollution), whole life-cycle analysis, sustainability guidance, financial modelling, design thinking
You will be making the property function your way (electrics, plumbing, roof and external walls…), but there are also non-functional requirements such as health and safety and many planning and building regulations (constraints) to adhere to. 
You will assemble a Project Team, including perhaps a named resource at the local authority (planning, building reg.s). The roles and responsibilities vary through the phases and one person may wear several hats. Be clear by naming these positions, creating a profile, identifying who makes the decisions, how they can be changed (change control), who does the actions, and in what format instructions will be issued.
You will need a Communication Plan and a meeting room, likely digital, to exchange and store information.

6. You will benefit at all times from Feedback from your studies (skills) and experience (competencies), and from competent people whom you can freely consult with on other projects (experts, maybe from work).

7. There should be a go/no-go Milestone Review. A thumbs-up and you can move to the next stage - a building project has been set up and different skills will then be needed.

1.3 Deliverables

• Requirements – used for project execution: quality, change control
• Light Business Case – used for managing the project: cost, timescale.

1.4 Supporting Tools

• Property Selector
• Templates




Thursday, 28 October 2021

THE 2021 AUTUMN BUDGET

Rishi is totally brilliant, but he is not serious; and that's the trouble with this govt, led by Bojo. 

They don't have any skin in the game as they are fabulously rich themselves already. They just want to stay in office and the best way to do that is to play the Master of Ceremonies at a party.

Rishi should have been wearing a party hat and carrying a magic wand. 

When the people turn to hard work, thrift and moral decency, so will the govt. But the people are in party mood after the pandemic.

I reckon it's more than that, not temporary at all. There seems to be a structural change in the culture. 

There are no true-grit politicians negotiating what's best, taking people to places maybe they dont want to go but it's best for them,  showing leadership. 

And as to the commons, the people are dominated by a load of third-worlders these days, making hay. The govt plays to this fecklessness. It isn't serious.

We don't have real politicians anymore, only DJs, Masters of Ceremonies. Where was Rishi's party hat and magic wand? Open the box Rishi.

Monday, 25 October 2021

SECRETS OF GIVING ADVICE

Secrets of giving advice

Can you remember times when you tookgood advice ... and didnt?

So, starts, as usual by listening.

Asking open questions
Asking questions that also allow the respondent to see a benefit for themselves

Waiting for them to ask you for advice.

Telling of other people or yourself, not give instructions!

Don't care about if it is followed or not.
Dont mind if they do something different!!!

Compare:
Coaching
Consulting


Sunday, 24 October 2021

NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL

"The way forward is for the UK and EU to cooperate in measures to curb the flow of non compliant goods in either direction across the Irish land border, while leaving each side free to make and follow its own laws and rules within its own territory."

That says nothing.

The answer is a digital border, where it should be, and the technology is here ready to deploy.

 The EU is The Single Market, which is the so-called "four freedoms", broken out into a cascade of deeply trivial rules (300 in the case of the NIP), policed by the EU's own court. 

That's fine for members, but not at all fine for non-members. 

 Any disputes can go to independent arbitration. That is not controversial.

 This whole dispute can be sorted out using a digital border and independent dispute resolution.

 Why hasn't this been done? 

THE CASE FOR THE NATION STATE

From Poland's perspective, the case against an EU federal Europe is the case for the primacy of the nation state.

But from the EU point of view, this is an existential threat. It is quite unlike Gernany's objection from its constitutional court.

 

The EU is built on the Single Market. From these so-called "four freedoms" flow all the rules that so annoy lovers of freedom for their own parliaments. These rules are judged and enforced by their top court, the ECJ.

 Without the ECJ, member states would be free to do as they please, choosing cake when it comes to subsidies, for example, or sandwiches when it's a matter of economic policy for their own country.

 So Poland's challenge to à federal Europe is taken very seriously. The response from the Commission and EU Parliament isn't yet decided: go in hard with, in effect, sanctions and fines; or be more accommodating by finding out precisely what the current govt in Poland wants to do and perhaps relaxing those rules in a more flexible approach.

VALUES

I'd say one more thing. This conflict is not simply Poland asserting itself as a nation state and challenging the loss of sovereignty implied by a union of states into a federation. This is about very different sets of values.

Let us not forget that it was only 30 years ago that Poland escaped Vassal status in one empire. No surprise that it wouldn't want to join another.

 With Hungary and the Czech republic, these peoples are not interested in LGBTetc rights or the EU an for "gender equality", they do not believe that abortion is a good thing and as to identity politics, it’s not transphobic for Poland to want to recognise only men and women and uphold their traditional, more conservative values and way of life.

 Let's get real a little. The EU intends a law to “protect the rights of rainbow families so that their parenthood and same-sex partnership is recognised throughout the union.”

How will that down with the vast majority of the people of Poland? And if the Polish govt refuses to obey, it will be in conflict with the EU and will get taken before the ECJ.  

Saturday, 23 October 2021

OUR INHERITANCE


23 October 2021
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/23/parents-occasionally-abrupt-children-may-guilty-mild-neglect/

Who says you can't take it with you?
 
The costs of care in the home can reach £2,000 a week, or as much as twice the bill for care in a private care home. So it is quite possible for a parent to burn through the family fortune, leaving the family or beneficiaries with nothing. Nothing?

In those final years and months,  much and increasing stress in the family can be expected, dementia setting in, personalities crystallise out on the dark side, clashes are inevitable, so that the defunct's only legacy could be a family split asunder.

The future belongs to those who remain. But here, the only inheritance will be a family where each goes their own way.

Who says you can't take it with you?
 
The costs of care in the home can reach £2,000 a week, or as much as twice the bill for care in a private care home. So it is quite possible for a parent to burn through the family fortune, leaving the family or beneficiaries with nothing.

Could carers at home provide the same standards as procedures on tap in a care home?

Whilst many families and the elderly themselves wish to be near their loved ones, in familiar surroundings, many will not and many will prefer the social opportunities available in a care home and would welcome their family in relaxed circumstances.
Because along the way in those final years and months,  much and increasing stress in the family can be expected, personalities seen to crystallise out on the dark side, clashes will be inevitable, so that the defunct's only legacy could be a family split asunder.
This will be their inheritance.

Thursday, 21 October 2021

ACCESS THAILAND

  • Passport or travel document with a validity not less than 6 months
  • Visa application form (filled out)
  • One(1) recent 4x6cm. photograph of the applicant
  • Round-trip air ticket or e-ticket (paid in full)
  • Proof of financial means (20,000 baht per person/40,000 baht per family)
  • Proof of Hotel or private accommodation

After receiving your Thailand tourist visa and certificate of entry from the Thai Embassy or consulate, the traveler must prepare the following documents before traveling to Thailand:

  • Certificate of Entry (COE)
  • Valid visa in your passport
  • Declaration Form
  • Medical Certificate with a laboratory result indicating that COVID -19 is not detected. The COVID test must be by the RT-PCR method, within 72 hours before departure. Some airlines do not accept home kit tests so please check specific requirements with the airlines you are traveling with.
  • Printed COVID 19 travel insurance certificate and all pages of the terms and conditions on the COVID-19 coverage and medical benefits. You may be refused to board the flight if you could not show that the insurance meets this requirement.
  • Copy of confirmed ASQ Hotel booking
  • Copy of confirmed flight reservation
  • T8 Health Form
  • You must download the “Thailand Plus” Application on your mobile phone

Wednesday, 20 October 2021

HEAT PUMP

v.gd/qryrtW
Six things you'll only know if you have a heat pump 

As Boris Johnson encourages people to replace their gas boilers, new converts tell us what the low-carbon alternative actually involves 

By Luke Mintz and Yolanthe Fawehinmi 19 October 2021 • 8:37pm 

Richard Casson admits he was a little nervous when a mechanic arrived at his north London flat in May to replace his traditional gas boiler. He wasn’t coming to install a newer model but a heat pump, the low-carbon alternative being hailed by Boris Johnson as the forefront of Britain’s home heating revolution. Casson, who works as a fundraiser for Greenpeace, was obviously motivated by a desire to tackle climate change – but also, if he’s honest, by a simple fascination with new gadgets.

“With everything changing in terms of how we heat and power homes, it didn’t make sense to lock myself into getting a[nother] gas boiler,” says Casson, 38. “I wanted something new and exciting, [that would also] cut my carbon footprint.”

Casson’s heat pump is one of only about 200,000 in use in the UK (in contrast, 25 million homes use a gas boiler). Now, he looks like something of a visionary, as Johnson presses ahead with his net zero plans to end the installation of gas boilers altogether in the next 15 years. The Government this week announced a campaign to encourage homeowners in England and Wales to replace their gas boiler with a heat pump when their current boiler eventually breaks, with grants of £5,000 to help 90,000 households make the switch. But what will it actually involve? Here’s what you need to know...

1. How on earth do they work? 

Heat pumps are usually affixed to an outside wall. Aided by a fan, they extract warmth from the outdoor air. This warm air causes a special refrigerant liquid inside the pump to evaporate, turning it into gas. That gas is then sent through an air compressor, increasing its pressure and making its temperature rise. This hot air is then blown straight into a home, or used to heat water which feeds radiators.

It works rather like a fridge in reverse, says Will Rivers, senior manager at the Carbon Trust consultancy. “A heat pump is taking a very large quantity of low-temperature heat [from outside the house], and then compressing it into a smaller volume of high-temperature heat. It might only be two degrees outside, but there is still energy in that air if you capture enough of it.” Manufacturers claim this process works in temperatures as low as -20C – although the colder it gets, the more energy the pump needs to function. There are also heat pumps that draw energy from the ground or water.

2. Will they cost more to run? 

Richard Brown says his heat pump allows him to save between £300 and £400 a year on fuel costs Credit: Andrew Fox 

Experts say the average heat pump costs between £6,000 and £18,000, depending on the model installed and the size of a property. But this cost can be reduced by government grants. Casson paid £11,000 for a heat pump for his Finsbury Park flat – significantly pricier than gas boilers, which usually cost below £2,500 – some of which he will get back under the Government’s Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive scheme, which pays him about £1,000 a year for seven years. “It goes straight into my bank account.” The exact amount he can claim depends on the amount of fossil fuels his household previously used (the more carbon you are ‘taking out’ of the system by buying a heat pump, the more money you will receive).

Richard Brown, 57, an IT project manager, paid roughly £10,000 last February to replace his gas boiler with a heat pump at his four-bedroom detached house in Derby. He says it allows him to save between £300 and £400 a year on fuel costs.

Ministers claim their newly-announced £5,000 grants will make the cost of a heat pump comparable to that of a new gas boiler, although environmental groups claim the policy is not going far enough.

3. Will my home be colder? 

Heat pumps heat the water in your house to a maximum of about 65C – significantly lower than it would reach under a traditional gas boiler (about 75C for water in radiators, and between 50C to 60C for the water in your kitchen and bathroom taps). This means they generally take longer to heat your home. Sceptics worry that heat pumps will leave them cold during winter, but Brown says he simply left the heat pump switched on “all the time”, rather than trying rapidly to warm everything up when arriving home from work. This allows his home to get just as warm as it would under a gas boiler, while still using much less carbon. “It keeps us perfectly warm,” he says.

Casson, too, says his initial concerns were unfounded. “You hear rumours, but I’ve found those things to be myths. You choose the temperature you want. We set ours at 50C, and it really comfortably gets to 50C. If we put our radiators and hot water on, we just never have any issues.”

The Governmenthas announced a campaign to encourage homeowners in England and Wales to replace their gas boiler with a heat pump when their current boiler breaks Credit: Paul Grover 

4. Just how noisy are they? 

Some worry that the whirring of the heat pump’s fan might prove noisy. But Casson says he cannot hear his fan when inside his flat (the fan is fitted to an exterior wall at the back of his block). “When the engineer switched it on for the first time, he was saying, ‘You won’t be able to hear this’. And I was thinking, ‘God, is he just saying that?’ And he turned it on, and I literally laughed out loud. You read all this stuff about it being noisy, but it’s really not.

Casson thinks heat pumps might “start to make noise over time”. But he says if that happens he can simply “put a bit of WD40 [lubricant] on the fan to sort it out” (his pump receives a free annual check-up as part of his payment deal).

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Brown’s fan was installed on the outer wall of his kitchen. He says he can only hear it while standing in the garden. “It works hardest in winter, when you’re generally not using the garden anyway. Whereas in the summer, it’s off for most of the daytime.” Even on the rare occasions he’s in the garden in winter, the hum of the fan is little more than a “gentle background noise”, Brown says.

5. Are they tricky to use? 

Richard Casson: 'I wanted something new and exciting, [that would also] cut my carbon footprint.' 

Even though he works for Greenpeace, Casson admits the technology behind heat pumps is “quite sophisticated, there are some parts I don’t really understand myself; I’m getting my head around it.” But after some “tinkering” with the settings to make his pump as cost-efficient as possible, he’s now getting the hang of it.

Meanwhile, Tom Jenane, a nutrition and fitness coach, admits he was “incredibly confused” when he moved into his rented flat and discovered his landlord had installed a heat pump instead of a boiler. “It was not previously mentioned by estate agents; they told me that it would save money on my monthly energy bills, so I should be happy about it. They mentioned that it utilises the soil outside in my garden to create the heat, but that’s as far as my knowledge goes in this area.”

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But, Jenane adds: “The idea that I might be lowering my carbon footprint sounds good to me.”

6. Will we all have to have one soon? 

“The Greenshirts of the Boiler Police are not going to kick in your door with their sandal-clad feet and seize, at carrot-point, your trusty old combi,” Johnson wrote in The Sun this week. But setting out his new green agenda today, he announced builders would be banned from fitting conventional gas boilers in new-build homes by 2025 and committed to the “ambition” of ending the sale of gas boilers in the UK from 2035.


Monday, 18 October 2021

NO MORE PATIENCE FOR THE EU

18 October 2021

The EU is a dangerous and wayward power. It has no vision of its future. It has no idea of the balance of power in the world. It treats its enemies, like China and Russia as friends ;  and it treats its friends, the UK and the United States, as enemies. It shows no respect to its peoples, instead it seeks to discipline them (the Greeks, the Poles, the Hungarians.) It serves only German industry and French vanity. It exists as a vortex of power, draining member states of their skilled and competent, becoming ever more self-centred in the process. It has always taken Britain for granted, and always tolerated French selfishness. 

No one asked the British people if they consented to be governed by a European super-state. No one asked the Europeans either, though they don't care.

Yes, we were morally entitled to take back our sovereignty. Yes, we can make a practical success of it. Yes, we have always been and always will be sovereign : we didn't join the euro, we didn't agree to bail out the Greeks, we didn't join Schengen and we vote to leave the EU ... AND WE LEFT.

At present our greatest difficulty is the sabotage being perpetrated by remainers in influential places, who will use every rumour, every innuendo, every insinuation, to destroy confidence in their own country, and delight in every setback they can find, whether or not caused by themselves.