Wednesday, 6 October 2021

BEST INDEX FUNDS FOR GLOBAL STOCKS: AN ETF STRATEGY

Best Index Funds for Global Stocks, Part I

Part I - Strategy
(Part II - Setup
Part III -Operations)

Background
Strategy
Tilts
Modern Portfolio Theory
Strategic allocation rules
“Core and satellite” portfolio design
Screen for compliant ETFs
Summary


Background

Without enough knowledge or time to make a sound call, some investors nonetheless try to pin the tail of a stock they hope will outperform, on the donkey of all stocks in the market. The alternative is to find one fund for exposure to all global equities. Why only one fund? Why global? Companies, sectors and country markets go up and down but we do not have the knowledge or time to understand this and we cannot predict the future. So we diversify as broadly as possible to protect our capital and the good investments will cancel out the bad and hopefully we can benefit from rising markets wherever they occur. 

Passive investing is a strategy for minimising stock dealings with all its risks and costs. It is a cheaper way to hold a bunch of stocks that represent the overall market. It is a way to build wealth gradually but surely. All the information is already in the market, in the form of the price, so there is no benefit in trying to time the market or identify which stocks will outperform. But we believe that over time, in the long run, markets will rise and because we do not know when or where, it is better to be “in” than ”out”.


Rather than trading securities, we buy an index to the target market. An index is like a ruler that measures overall market activity. The index is normally worked out by taking the average price of the basket of securities, as they move up and down each day, but weighting by the market-capitalisation of each company (“market cap.” is number of shares times the share price).

A way was found to buy and sell the index and it is called an Exchange Traded Fund or ETF for short. Today, indexes, in the form of ETFs, can be bought and sold like stocks and shares.

Strategy

Tuesday, 5 October 2021

WORK FROM HOME or LIVING AT WORK

And parents were supposed to work from home and teach their kids. Work, with the kids under their feet all day. Teach, with neither the knowledge nor the pedagogy.

A giant exercise in crowd management. Scare them into lockdown, then busy them to keep them from rioting.

But it worked. Boris got his covid programs through. Just mental illness soared and other diseases flourished.

Terrible times, empty memories. Time hangs when you've nothing to do, but looking back,  getting on for two years gone in a flash.

Monday, 4 October 2021

BENEFITS OF COOPERATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR IRELAND

4 October 2101

Aligning tax regimes North and South on 12.5% is a very pragmatic solution  and would satisfy the US and in any case the South is likely to accept 15% if it remains in the EU.

Pragmatic, except that it would further align the N S economies and distance NI from GB, further opening the road to a united Ireland.

Could Westminster not grasp the nettle, see the writing on the wall, look over the horizon a little? 

I mean, imagine that one day the impossible happens and a referendum in NI puts Unite ahead. The Green flag wins, the Orange flag sees a complete rupture with GB and is desperate, the Get-ahead flag doesn't much care either way. Think GFA...

Wouldn't it have been better to prepare a home of sorts for Ireland in GB, rather than a hurt daughter plight (or plaid) her troth to the EU? 

THE KINGDOM'S RENAISSANCE HAS BEGUN

In his speech this week, Lord Frost will seek to defend the Government's record since Brexit, highlighting new free trade deals, the points-based immigration system and plans to overhaul data laws and repeal reams of retained EU law that no longer works for the UK. 

‘The British renaissance has begun’

Outlining the Government's desire to bring about a “British renaissance”, he will go on to state: 

“All history, all experience, shows that democratic countries with free economies, which let people keep more of the money they have earned, make their own decisions, and manage their own lives, are not just richer but also happier and more admired by others.

“The long bad dream of our EU membership is over. The British renaissance has begun."

Sunday, 3 October 2021

A METHOD TO VALUE A COMPANY: TANGIBLE SHAREHOLDER SURPLUS

Bogdan Branislov

Clive Woolley - I replied to you last comment on the BAE (22nd sept) thread, albeit a bit belatedly, so I have copied my reply here:

Clive - looks correct to me and certainly the final figure is very much in the right area - I may sound vague here, but the TSS moves every day a little with the share price of course.

I use data which gives the net total assets from which I deduct the intangibles, same result your way so that is fine.

This is obviously a screening exercise and there are other factors that you must consider, often more subjective:

1. Look for anything odd in the balance sheet, things that don't quite stack up, TI Fluid systems for example, as discussed yesterday, the balance sheet and P&L look like they are from different businesses.

2. Watch out for a big debt or liability build up behind an apparently strong TSS - a variation on point 1. But also an absolute red flag.

3. Look at the ten year data, if you look at the ten year tangible equity build up for LGEN and BWY, it is a thing of great beauty like a marvelous piece of art, a balance sheet masterpiece.

4. There needs to be a continuity to the equity build up - that is why Aviva and M&G although reasonable buys I think, are not in the same league as LGEN, within their broad sector, due to the greater uncertainty of future earnings and equity build up for Aviva and M&G.

5. Sometimes when a business has undertaken a cash draining expansion, this can suppress the TSS and mask the opportunity. Forterra for example, with their new brick plant, to produce next year, Covid came as spend was peaking, they had to issue just over 6% shares as a precautionary measure last year and the development spend has obviously held back the divi. But even with the expansion impact, the TSS is still over 7%, so I don't use such circumstances to ignore the all important TSS metric, but I can make allowance under some circumstances if this metric is held back a little by sound expansion spend.


TSS Tangible shareholder surplus - the average annual growth in tangible balance sheet equity over the past 5 years, added to the forward yield. The sum is then expressed as a percentage of the current MCap after adjustments for the average annual share issuing or share buy backs over the previous 5 years.

The importance of the TSS is that the build up in tangible equity within the balance sheet is a far more accurate guide to actual retained profits than the declared earnings.

Nearly all the valuation metrics currently used such as PE, PEG, GARP and dividend cover are all based upon declared earnings which are often grossly exaggerated.

For example, investment publications or data sources talk about dividend cover. They refer to the alleged earnings left over once the dividend is paid, that is supposedly the dividend cover. Frequently though, despite a healthy earnings dividend cover being declared, the tangible equity shrinks year on year after the dividend has been paid, i.e. the so called retained earnings were not actually retained as tangible equity after the dividend was paid, which means that they never existed at all, otherwise the retained earnings would translate into tangible equity.

In a nutshell, earnings declarations allow businesses to be creative and to exaggerate. So called covered dividends are frequently not covered at all. Being able to understand and to calculate the Tangible Shareholder Surplus allows the investor to identify dividends that are fully covered, giving them a considerable long term edge over the wider market.


@Neil Gibbens my understanding from reading comments from @Bogdan Branislov is that TSS stands for Tangible Shareholder Surplus. 


My understanding is that by comparing the current market capitalisation to the growth in tangible assets (less intangibles, plus dividends) it is possible to get an idea of how well the current price reflects the rate at which a business is adding shareholder value - over the medium term.


Fair value tends to give a TSS of around 5%, while a TSS of around 10% might suggest a buy opportunity.


A company like BATS which has borrowed heavily against future profits (transferring much of the risk of legislative changes halting operations to lenders) does badly on this assessment.


A company like LGEN currently provides a case study in what Bogdan is looking for, with a likely TSS of 9.5%. In a company with a market capitalisation of £ 17 Billion that means a TSS of 160 million per year.


I haven't convinced myself yet I can replicate the methodology, so I'm pleased Bogdan has just pre-empted my post!

Saturday, 2 October 2021

PETROL SHORTAGES : THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT

Petrol - there's all you need to take your kids to school. We are told it's in the this country somewhere, just not in the right places. So it's only haulage.

We are told it is a multitude of small, short-term issues, of which panic-buying fuel is but the latest, and once we're through we'll be in global Britain-times enjoying our prosperity, power and independence to the max.

But as you say, will we? As it feels as though the situation is worsening, with bad surprises flying in every week. And for cause, don't look local, because these are global supply chain problems.

Looking at why the army is being sent in and why temporary visas (as it is only a short-term pb) are being issued (and already extended):

working conditions, pay, red tape, laziness and over-sensitivities, many drivers quitting because of the lockdowns, not training up new HGV operators, and not women, Brexit causing many to return home, giving a shortage of 100,000 drivers. That's a lot and you do wonder what the RHA has been doing - all asleep in their cabs!

We are talking about logistics for retail food and fuel, but that's not all. What we are talking about is shipping costs, and gas price rises and a drop in sterling, we're concerned about inflation and interest rates, tax rises, and ultimately how all this joins up to the medium and long term as concerns the EU FTA, the break-up of the kingdom, and beyond that to debt-collapse, climate change, migrations, the rise of China.

It's a lot for Boris to think about (we are getting into a cult figure status).

More short term problems, but even these, can we see any better? Oil prices have reached a three year high, $80 a barrel, and climbing thanks to output disruptions and this high demand. Traditional oil companies are selling out and investing in green, but that is much more expensive. Germany is relying onxoal and Putin!

Then theres the construction sector where more than one in three businesses can't get the materials, goods and services they need within the UK. How will my son rehab the flat he's just bought? What effect housing 300,000 starts?

The gas surge closed two of the UK’s big industrial fertiliser plants in a completely unexpected and inflationary surprise, resulting in more govt takeover in the "market" economy and state aid and yet more borrowing.

 So now we have inflation at 4 per cent for the short-term plus a possible base rate rise early next year. America same same with the threat to stock markets from tapering.

 Still, no significant upturn in unemployment nor  substantial corporate distress. Only inflation, supply difficulties NI rise to threaten the economic recovery (which is already faltering).

And what about the jobs of those coming off furlough? Will they want to back to work? Will employers have work for them? Given the worsening outlook.

 Sort out the short term, the central bank needs to say no int  rate rises medium term, but the long term is surely out of the hands of any one country.

Tuesday, 28 September 2021

IS IT ACCURATE TO LABEL COMMUNISTS AS "FASCIST"?

But you see, Communists *are* fascist. Communism is the dictatorship of the proletariat, it is where the State is more important than the individual, it is intolerant of opposition, it employs violence on its own people.

We say that Nazis were National Socialists and then Fascists, true, so nation is important, aswhere Communism is international.

But that's what we are getting at - denial of free speech is unscientific, against the spirit of rational open-minded inquiry, it is unenlightened ...well, that is true of all utopianists, religious or political, communist or fascist, same same.


The roots of the fascist personality might be in a fear of not having enough control.

And it's sometimes quite rational and even justified, to want to seize control and hold.

Even old Bojo Boris didn't have much alternative if he was to get on top of the pandemic.

But a true fascist is a bit of a control freak and once taken, won't give back, won't let go, not voluntarily anyway.

But we know that letting go, opening up, exposing ourself to reality, is where we will find the truth, we will understand, and we will make progress. What kind of progress towards the things that matter does a fascist make? 

ANOTHER ESSAY ON "HOW TO PICK LONGER TERM STOCK MARKET WINNERS"

Cape 28 September 2021

If we do decide to allocate our capital to stocks, this then raises some follow-on questions: What stocks should we buy? How can we assess their strength? Do they have any weaknesses? What are their future prospects like? Will they be able to handle an inflationary environment?

You might know that our philosophy at Simply Wall St is to not try to predict where the market is going or what will happen next in the macro environment. Instead we’d do well to continue following some core investment principles that have stood the test of time. One of them is: 

Buy high-quality businesses with good long term prospects at a price below their intrinsic value.

Here’s some questions, a checklist of sorts, that can be useful to ask ourselves when looking at a stock (and how Simply Wall St can help in some areas):

1. Is the company a high-quality business that generates high returns on capital?

“Quality” businesses are those that have a sustainable competitive advantage over their competitors. Think of things like brand power (Apple NASDAQ:AAPL), economies of scale (Costco - NASDAQ:COST), or network effects (Facebook - NASDAQ:FB).  

In terms of determining the company’s return on capital (how much it makes per dollar invested), you can check out the Simply Wall St Past Performance section within each company’s report to see how well the company allocates money. Here’s an example of Apple’s returns.

2. Does the company have good future prospects?

As mentioned in Part 2, it’s much easier to invest in industries with tailwinds rather than headwinds. If the company has good growth prospects with more room left in its Total Addressable Market (TAM) to serve, then it’s got room to grow. On Simply Wall St you can check out the Future Growth section, here’s Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) for example.

3. Is the business capital intensive?

If the business requires a lot of upfront capital invested to generate its product or service (think manufacturing or construction), then it can be vulnerable to inflation pressures if the cost of its inputs increase. However if it’s a capital light business model (think software), then it’s less vulnerable to having its margins eaten away by inflation (that is if its costs increase but it can’t increase its prices equally). Here again, for example, we can see Apple’s operating expenses remaining flat while revenues have increased, which have helped drive profit margins higher.

4. Can the business raise its prices at or above the rate of inflation?

Think about it this way, does the business provide enough value to customers where they are happy to pay up if prices increase? Or would they go to the cheaper alternatives? Is the business in a market where consumers are simply looking for the cheapest product, or does the company have a business or status where it can afford to raise its prices and not lose any customers? 

5. Is the business able to afford its debt? (if it has any) 

Given the current low interest rate and inflationary environment, taking on debt is actually quite an appealing source of capital. So utilizing debt effectively can help a company increase its profitability. The key here is to assess if the debt is affordable, especially if interest rates were to rise.  Within the Financial Health section, we run checks on the affordability and absolute level of debt, so you can get a quick understanding of both how leveraged a company is, and how affordable that debt is.

6. Is the business in a growing industry?

As mentioned before, investing with tailwinds is easier than investing in an industry facing headwinds. You may know of industries that are growing and that you want to invest in, but not be aware of the particular companies within it. We’ve got a screener to help with that.

If you want to look at the Renewable energy sector for example, which we know is growing, you can start by checking out the Global Renewable energy screener we’ve developed, then drilling down from there depending on what country you want to look at.

6. Is the company trading at a discount or premium to its intrinsic value?

We could do a whole email series on the nuances of valuation, so we won’t go into depth here but just keep this in mind. A high quality business can become a bad investment if you pay too much.

If now isn’t the right time to buy, be patient. If the company still ticks all the other boxes for you, it’s worth putting it on your Watchlist within SWS because the market can fluctuate and give you an opportunity to buy at a better price. From there, you can monitor all its developments, set your own fair value and we’ll keep you up to date on all the important updates.
This list is by no means all-encompassing, but by simply following this short checklist and other timeless investment principles (which we’ve covered in our 3-part election series last year), we can position ourselves to:
  1. Better withstand whatever macro-environment we face
  2. Make more informed investment decisions
  3. Avoid succumbing to FOMO
  4. Be confident in the portfolio of high-quality stocks that we own
  5. Take advantage of structural growth opportunities
  6. Not overpay for businesses, no matter how good they are

Wrapping up

So that brings us to the end of our 3-part series! We’ve covered 3 global issues that are causing structural multi-year changes and how to navigate or take advantage of them, with some help from the Simply Wall St platform.
We hope you’ve enjoyed this series and got some value out of the content covered!
Invest Well,

Michael Paige
Simply Wall St
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Monday, 27 September 2021

MAPS OF MEANING : THE ARCHITECTURE OF BELIEF

Cape 27 September - Jordan Peterson 'Maps of Meaning"

Why have people from different cultures and eras formulated myths and stories with similar structures? What does this similarity tell us about the mind, morality, and structure of the world itself? Jordan Peterson offers a provocative new hypothesis that explores the connection between what modern neuropsychology tells us about the brain and what rituals, myths, and religious stories have long narrated. A cutting-edge work that brings together neuropsychology, cognitive science, and Freudian and Jungian approaches to mythology and narrative, Maps of Meaning presents a rich theory that makes the wisdom and meaning of myth accessible to the critical modern mind.

Review

"The book reflects its author's profound moral sense and vast erudition in areas ranging from clinical psychology to scripture and a good deal of personal soul-searching and experience...with patients who include prisoners, alcoholics and the mentally ill." -- Montreal Gazette
"This is not a book to be abstracted and summarized. Rather it should be read at leisure...and employed as a stimulus and reference to expand one's own maps of meaning. I plan to return to Peterson's musings and mapping many times over the next few years." -- Am J Psychiatry
"...a brilliant enlargement of our understanding of human motivation...a beautiful work." -- Sheldon H. White, Harvard University
"...unique...a brilliant new synthesis of the meaning of mythologies and our human need to relate in story form the deep structure of our experiences." -- Keith Oatley, University of Toronto

From the Back Cover

Jordan Peterson's book is a brilliant enlargement of our understanding of human motivation. He follows a path that has been recommended by many scientist-scholars in the past - but one that is, in practice, so extraordinarily demanding that it is hardly ever done well. Peterson synthesizes research and scholarly literatures ranging from neuroscience to archaeology. He aligns the finds of those literatures with the writings of such authors as Jung, Nietzsche, Dostoevsky, and Solzhenitsyn. There is loving detail in this book - reflection, thoughtfulness, careful study, a passionate desire to understand. This is a beautiful work. (Sheldon H. White, Chair, Department of Psychology, Harvard University).

About the Author

Jordan B. Peterson is a clinical psychologist and Professor at the University of Toronto and was formerly at Harvard University. He has published numerous articles on drug abuse, alcoholism and aggression.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

Self-consciousness means knowledge of individual vulnerability. The process by which this knowledge comes to be can destroy faith in individual worth. This means - in concrete terms - that an individual may come to sacrifice his own experience, in the course of development, because its pursuit creates social conflict, or exposes individual inadequacy. However, it is only through such conflict that change takes place, and weakness must be recognized, before it can be transformed into strength. This means that the sacrifice of individuality eliminates any possibility that individual strength can be discovered or developed, and that the world itself might progress.

Individuals whose life is without meaning hate themselves, for their weakness, and hate life, for making them weak. This hatred manifests itself in absolute identification with destructive power, in its mythological, historical and biological manifestations; manifests itself in the desire for the absolute extinction of existence. Such identification leads man to poison whatever he touches, to generate unnecessary misery in the face of inevitable suffering, to turn his fellows against themselves, to intermingle earth with hell - merely to attain vengeance upon God and his creation.

The human purpose, if such a thing can be considered, is to pursue meaning - to extend the domain of light, of consciousness - in spite of limitation. A meaningful event exists on the boundary between order and chaos. The pursuit of meaning exposes the individual to the unknown in gradual fashion, allowing him to develop strength and adaptive ability in proportion to the seriousness of his pursuit. It is during contact with the unknown that human power grows, individually and then historically. Meaning is the subjective experience associated with that contact, in sufficient proportion. The great religious myths state that continued pursuit of meaning, adopted voluntarily and without self-deception, will lead the individual to discover his identity with God. This "revealed identity" will make him capable of withstanding the tragedy of life. Abandonment of meaning, by contrast, reduces man to his mortal weaknesses. This makes him hate life, and work towards its elimination.

Meaning is the most profound manifestation of instinct. Man is a creature attracted by the unknown; a creature adapted for its conquest. The subjective sense of meaning is the instinct governing rate of contact with the unknown. Too much exposure turns change to chaos; too little promotes stagnation and degeneration. The appropriate balance produces a powerful individual, confident in the ability to withstand life, ever more able to deal with nature and society, ever closer to the heroic ideal. Each individual, constitutionally unique, finds meaning in different pursuits, if he has the courage to maintain his difference. Manifestation of individual diversity, transformed into knowledge that can be transferred socially, changes the face of history itself, and moves each generation of man farther into the unknown.

Social and biological conditions define the boundaries of individual existence. The unfailing pursuit of interest provides the subjective means by which these conditions can be met, and their boundaries transcended. Meaning is the instinct that makes life possible. When it is abandoned, individuality loses its redeeming power. The great lie is that meaning does not exist, or that it is not important. When meaning is denied, hatred for life and the wish for its destruction inevitably rules:

"If you bring forth what is within you, what you bring forth will save you. If you do not bring forth what is within you, what you do not bring forth will destroy you."

A VINDY DAY - ALL ABOUT VINDALOO

Cape 27 September 2021
Here is a little peek into the history of Vindaloo - a classic dish that has strong European influence. 

It took elements from the Portuguese and English cuisine to create something uniquely Indian. It is an Indianised version of a popular Portuguese dish Carne de vinha d'alhos (the Portuguese version of Boeuf Bourguignon or Irish Stew with Guinness if you prefer) in which meat is marinated in wine vinegar and garlic. 

It made its way to India in the 15th century along with Portuguese explorers. Carne de vinha d'alhos was a dish that was usually carried by travelers and sailors. It had liberal use of vinegar and garlic and can be preserved. Indian cooks of Goa used local ingredients like palm vinegar, tamarind, black pepper, and spices. With the introduction of chilly to the Indian cuisine by the Portuguese, it adapted itself to a fiery rich curry. The British took up Vindaloo and made it their own and it became an integral part of Indian cuisine.

Kerala Style Beef Vindaloo

Vindaloo became popular in Goa, Konkan, and Kerala because of the Portuguese and Anglo Indian community. Cochin was a one-time Portuguese stronghold and their influence can be seen in the local cuisine. This dish is a must among Christians and the Anglo Indian community of the region, for special occasions and celebrations. 

Vinagiri irachi has the spicy kick of black pepper and the earthy flavor of mustard, fennel, fenugreek, and cumin. Chilly powder like kashmiri is preferred for the colour rather than heat. Black pepper was the spice of choice for generations in Kerala cooking. 

Goan Vindaloo uses the pungent liquor feni but the Cochin recipe uses a milder local coconut vinegar. A small piece of drumstick or Muringa trees bark is also added as meat tenderizer. 

There is no tamarind, tomatoes or vegetables in vinagiri curry and can be made with both beef and pork. There is also liberal use of coconut oil and curry leaves.

http://kichencorner.blogspot.com/2019/10/kerala-beef-vindaloo-anglo-indian-recipe.html


Sunday, 26 September 2021

WOULD THE PEOPLE OF NORTHERN IRELAND VOTE TO STAY IN THE UNION?

Cape 25 Sep 2021
Of the 18 MPs elected in 2019 in Northern Ireland to the UK Parliament, 9 nine are Irish Nationalists, 8 eight are Unionist and 1 one is unaligned.

7 Seven of the Nationalists won't take up their seats at Westminster as they don't acknowledge the legitimacy of British rule.

All 5 five of the border constituencies returned Irish Nationalist MPs. 3 Three of the 4 four Belfast constituencies elected Irish Nationalists.

But is the union is on the way out?

Those 9 nine nationalist MPs got 37.7% of the vote and the 8 eight unionists 42.3%. With the unaligned with 16.8%, reckon 65% of their supporters would vote to stay in the U.K. and even 9% of Sinn Fein Fein voters and 35% of SDLP voters would vote to remain in the U.K. i.e. there has been no change in the percentage of NI voters who would opt for a united Ireland in the past 40 years. 

Seems it's not going to happen anytime soon.