GO LONG DEFENSIVES IN VACCINATED MARKETS, LONG CYCLICALS IN JAPAN & EMERGING

To Bank of America global investment strategist Michael Hartnett, there have been three distinct phases to describe market action over the last eight months. The first is what he labels the reopening rally, started on Nov. 3 by both the U.S. election and the reports of vaccine effectiveness. That boosted stocks and credit, steepened the yield curve, weakened the U.S. dollar, and led to cyclicals outperforming defensives. The next...

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EAT WITH THE BOSCH, SLEEP WITH THE BRITS

The UK is France's new neighbour and France would do well to remember this. And we are not just neighbours, we are relatives.And when another of France's neighbours was trying, for the third time no less, to burn their house down, who was the neighbour that came to the rescue and put out the fire?Well, hmmmmph, that other neighbour is having another go. Best to take a long spoon to the talks about "integration".Eat with the ..., sleep...

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TRADERS GET COLD IN THE AMYGDALA

Today's Wednesday. Wednesday, 21 July 2021You'd have needed a degree in crowd psychology to have been able to predict Monday and Tuesday on the LSE.The herd of investors (they're not really investors, they are traders) got cold in the amygdala at the thought of covid running out of control over the summer and shutting down the economy, abandoned their positions, and ran for shelter in the dollar bunkers. They sold up and moved to cash,...

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CONSPIRACY THEORISTS

Normaly, you want to explain something, you have your cause-effect timeline as your plan and proceed left-to-right. A conspiracy theorist does it all back-to-front. They take the thing they want to explain, then do a right-to-left, picking back through history from the myriad factoids, those that suit their perverse argument. Anyone can do that, but it's weird and unhelpful. ...

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REVOLUTION OR EVOLUTION?

All these revolutionaries are the same - utopianists as much as religious extremists (eg caliphate builders). They begin operations in the same place: your past.They aim to wipe the past and your memories, clean.Then they have a nice clean greenfield site on which to construct The New Society.&nb...

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WHO ARE INDIE SAGE?

18 July 2021Independent SAGE - "Indie-SAGE" they like to be called, borrowing the name of the official advisory SAGE and its name-remit, it's more friendly - link to the official source, SAGE, of independent scientific advice on how to deal with emergencies to government through SPI-B (SAGE). People on "Indie SAGE" are essentially behavioural scientists and some also sit on the official SAGE and make their case to government directly...

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FORWARD TO NEW NORMAL

Seems like we are on the way to understanding and living with this bug. We are more confident now and responsibility can be passed from State to the Individual, at lest for prevention.Much remains to be done: complete the vaccination program, optimise Test and Trace, improve treatments (improve vaccines, hospital procedures, long covid convalescence ...), plan for future 'virus wars'.Attention should go to rolling out the programs to...

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COVID FOR TRAVELING TO ENGLAND

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-for-people-travelling-to-englandhttps://www.find-travel-test-provider.service.gov.uk/test-type/gr...

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ADVICE FOR COMMENTING ON MY BLOG

You can'tThe blogging business has changed. A LOT. One of the big changes the more traditional news platforms are struggling with is the two-way conversation between news publishers and readers/viewers. Not only do readers now have the ability to engage with the publishers, they frequently do. That’s great. But with this engagement there is also a commensurate responsibility for people leaving comments. As the publisher is bound by certain...

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FREEDOM LOVING OR RISK AVERSE?

The Terrifying Truth Is That Millions Do Not Want Lockdown To EndI was vaccinated in Feb and Apr, caught covid in May one week no symptoms worth recording. Sure, I'll wear a mask in crowds out of respect for others, and as a sign that they should too, but otherwise it's carry on camping. The risk of transmission, the risk of serious symptoms if you do get it, these risks are very small now in a vaccinated society.We...

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MERCANTILISM & CAPITALISM

What Is Mercantilism and How Does It Compare To Capitalism? The colonies could only trade with the England, the mother country.You may have seen the word "mercantilism" floating around in the Trump-era news. But what is mercantilism, and why is it still relevant?The answer is trade wars, Brexit and the UK nation's fight with the EU (Germany's empire).1. What Is Mercantilism?Mercantilism is an economic philosophy built around exports and...

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