Saturday, 24 July 2021

GO LONG DEFENSIVES IN VACCINATED MARKETS, LONG CYCLICALS IN JAPAN & EMERGING

To Bank of America global investment strategist Michael Hartnett, there have been three distinct phases to describe market action over the last eight months. 

The first is what he labels the reopening rally, started on Nov. 3 by both the U.S. election and the reports of vaccine effectiveness. That boosted stocks and credit, steepened the yield curve, weakened the U.S. dollar, and led to cyclicals outperforming defensives.

The next phase was the inflation boom, started on Feb. 16 by blowout U.S. retail sales. That led to commodities rising, yields surging, cracks in the technology sector, and value stocks outperforming growth. 

The third phase was what he calls "peak growth/policy," starting on Jun. 16 by the Federal Reserve as well as easing signs from China. That led to a yield curve collapse, bonds outperforming stocks and commodities, the dollar rising, and defensives outperforming cyclicals. 

So what to do now? He says own defensive quality in the second half, as it is both a hedge against peak policy, and peak profits. He advises going
  long defensives in what he calls the vaccinated markets of the U.S. and Europe
and
  long cyclicals and reopening plays in markets with vaccine upside, in Japan and emerging markets.

Wednesday, 21 July 2021

EAT WITH THE BOSCH, SLEEP WITH THE BRITS

The UK is France's new neighbour and France would do well to remember this. And we are not just neighbours, we are relatives.

And when another of France's neighbours was trying, for the third time no less, to burn their house down, who was the neighbour that came to the rescue and put out the fire?

Well, hmmmmph, that other neighbour is having another go. Best to take a long spoon to the talks about "integration".

Eat with the ..., sleep with the ....

TRADERS GET COLD IN THE AMYGDALA

Today's Wednesday.

Wednesday, 21 July 2021

You'd have needed a degree in crowd psychology to have been able to predict Monday and Tuesday on the LSE.

The herd of investors (they're not really investors, they are traders) got cold in the amygdala at the thought of covid running out of control over the summer and shutting down the economy, abandoned their positions, and ran for shelter in the dollar bunkers. They sold up and moved to cash, the safety of the dollar, which enjoyed a bounce.

And then the very next day, yesterday Tuesday, FOMO and they all rush back in!

Sunday, 18 July 2021

CONSPIRACY THEORISTS

Normaly, you want to explain something, you have your cause-effect timeline as your plan and proceed left-to-right.

A conspiracy theorist does it all back-to-front. They take the thing they want to explain, then do a right-to-left, picking back through history from the myriad factoids, those that suit their perverse argument.

Anyone can do that, but it's weird and unhelpful.


REVOLUTION OR EVOLUTION?

All these revolutionaries are the same - utopianists as much as religious extremists (eg caliphate builders).

They begin operations in the same place: your past.

They aim to wipe the past and your memories, clean.

Then they have a nice clean greenfield site on which to construct The New Society. 

WHO ARE INDIE SAGE?

18 July 2021
Independent SAGE - "Indie-SAGE" they like to be called, borrowing the name of the official advisory SAGE and its name-remit, it's more friendly - link to the official source, SAGE, of independent scientific advice on how to deal with emergencies to government through SPI-B (SAGE). People on "Indie SAGE" are essentially behavioural scientists and some also sit on the official SAGE and make their case to government directly here.

They also face the public, through innumerable tie-ins, like trades unions, newspapers, internet.

It is in practise impossible to separate the data that describes a situation, from the policy for managing the situation. Data, policy and operations are intertwined.

What precedes policy, what conditions policy, are your beliefs and values, ie your politics. Behavioural scientists study the behaviour of people in mass society. In this situation, it is virtually impossible not to hold a Marxist view of society: we are born into "society" and conditioned by our membership of the class to which we belong. After following the social rules on what to think and do, what is left is our personal sphere of freedom.

Contrast this with a true Conservative, who thinks we are born free and consent to join the group while it offers us protection against anarchy and dictatorship. We enjoy maximum freedom to do as we please, which we agree to exchange a part of for this protection.

Furthermore, a Marxist has a vision of a society that is social, equal, diverse and fair. That's really quite different from a Conservative, who abhors the nanny state (read "dictatorship of the people"), with all its tentacles damping down freedom and competition.

So, long story short, Indie SAGE are to be welcomed, they bring a lot of interesting evidence, conclusions and policy recommendations; but we can hear them coming from afar, in their big red Marxist boots!

Tuesday, 13 July 2021

FORWARD TO NEW NORMAL

Seems like we are on the way to understanding and living with this bug. We are more confident now and responsibility can be passed from State to the Individual, at lest for prevention.

Much remains to be done: complete the vaccination program, optimise Test and Trace, improve treatments (improve vaccines, hospital procedures, long covid convalescence ...), plan for future 'virus wars'.

Attention should go to rolling out the programs to countries outside the G7. The WHO could help coordination.

Friday, 9 July 2021

COVID FOR TRAVELING TO ENGLAND

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-for-people-travelling-to-england

https://www.find-travel-test-provider.service.gov.uk/test-type/green

Tuesday, 6 July 2021

ADVICE FOR COMMENTING ON MY BLOG

Some guidelines for commenting on The Thaiger | Thaiger
The blogging business has changed. A LOT. 

One of the big changes the more traditional news platforms are struggling with is the two-way conversation between news publishers and readers/viewers. Not only do readers now have the ability to engage with the publishers, they frequently do. That’s great. 

But with this engagement there is also a commensurate responsibility for people leaving comments. As the publisher is bound by certain responsibilities and legal guidelines, so too are the people joining in the conversation.

I want the comments section to be a useful and engaging platform for debate and discussion. I understand that some people can end up using the space as their own personal platform, at least, that's what happens on the newspapers I read. I will discourage this where commenters overwhelm the space. Instead, I'll encourage as many people to get involved to share their opinion and commentary.

Or maybe I won't.

Whilst providing a few common-sense guidelines, I still encourage active and robust debate on important topics.

Rules for comments section…

• Argue, disagree or debate with other commenters, but don’t attack them personally. That includes me!!!

• You can, at the moment, include links in your comments. You can also quote other sources and copy/paste some text if you wish.

• Be careful when posting anything that could be construed as libel against brands, companies or people. You will leave us all open to litigation.

• When posting alternate facts to those which are published, please provide a source of your information.

• From time to time I will edit or delete comments as part of my responsibilities as a publisher. Continued abuse of the comments section will end up with the user being blocked.

Keep in contact with LivingInTheAir by following my Facebook page.

Keep reading future posts by following LivingInTheAir.

FREEDOM LOVING OR RISK AVERSE?

The Terrifying Truth Is That Millions Do Not Want Lockdown To End

I was vaccinated in Feb and Apr, caught covid in May one week no symptoms worth recording.

Sure, I'll wear a mask in crowds out of respect for others, and as a sign that they should too, but otherwise it's carry on camping.

The risk of transmission, the risk of serious symptoms if you do get it, these risks are very small now in a vaccinated society.

We are born free and agree to join society for some protection, we give up some freedom in return, and maybe some very risk-averse folk would sacrifice all their freedom for a totally safe environment, managed for us by others.


But not me.

CASE IN POINT

The film 'The Magdalene Sisters' shows us how we can become tame, enslaved. There is a powerful scene where the incarcerated 'immoral' women, having been subjected to years of drudgery, are outside in the garden. 
Someone accidentally leaves the gate open and your heart misses a beat. "Run Run" you want to shout at the screen. 
The women look at the open gate but they don't leave. Aïe! 
However much they may be intrigued by the prospect of freedom they are incapable of escaping. By then they're imprisoned, not just in body, but in mind too. 
 
The same thing is happening to many in our society now after a year and a half of enforced restrictions. People are afraid. 

We are being offered back our freedom but many are struggling to take it.

Sunday, 4 July 2021

MERCANTILISM & CAPITALISM

What Is Mercantilism and How Does It Compare To Capitalism?


The colonies could only trade with the England, the mother country.

You may have seen the word "mercantilism" floating around in the Trump-era news. But what is mercantilism, and why is it still relevant?

The answer is trade wars, Brexit and the UK nation's fight with the EU (Germany's empire).

1. What Is Mercantilism?

Mercantilism is an economic philosophy built around exports and trade.

A mercantilist economy tries to increase its wealth by maximizing exports and minimizing imports. This school of thought teaches that there is a limited amount of wealth in the world and all nations compete against for it. Exports make an economy richer because they bring money in. Imports make competitors richer at the economy's expense. It's a zero-sum game.

The logic of mercantilism makes trade a zero-sum transaction in which exporters have an advantage over importers. To increase their wealth and power, mercantile nations rely on tariffs, outsize trade leverage and military power to maximize their trade balance of payments. They want to ensure that the nation remains a net-exporter.

As a school of thought mercantilism is highly associated with specie (gold and silver coins) currency. This is because specie, or "hard money," economies have a fixed amount of currency in circulation. Unlike fiat currencies (digital and folding money), the more gold an economy spends the less it has. This aligns with mercantilism's belief that trade and wealth are fixed resources for which nations compete.

This belief is one of the theory's greatest weaknesses. It is by definition impossible for both parties in a trade agreement to be net exporters. As a result, mercantilism depends on a relationship in which one nation wins and the other loses. This relationship lends itself either to an involuntary trade relationship or to trade wars in which both nations mutually ratchet up tariffs, at first anyway.

Mercantilism dominated economic thought in Europe from the 16th through the 18th centuries. During this era, European nations often used military power to ensure markets for their exports, as a mercantile trade relationship is almost always a net-negative for at least one trading partner and because mercantilist nations often saw military and economic power as inextricably linked. It entered its decline as a dominant philosophy in the 19th century.

2. Why Is Mercantilism Relevant today?

Mercantilism is President Donald Trump's foundational business belief upon which he conducted U.S. trade negotiations. It is also the EU's upon which it built its Fortress Europe. So it is interesting to see Global Brexit and how this clash of philosophies will develop.

A mercantilist "loses" the money that it spends importing foreign goods and materials. A strong economy is one that runs a trade surplus. Money spent on imports enriches foreign competitors at the expense of the nation's businesses and workers. And thus, misnomered Free Trqde Agreements will be unequal since the empire will use its larger market power, there will be tariffs to slow down purchases of foreign products and  favour domestic production.

This is mercantilism, and it is at odds with global trade.

3  What Is Capitalism?

Capitalism is an economic philosophy built around competition and productivity.

In capitalism, most property and tools of production are held in private hands. The government may produce a range of goods and services for general consumption, but this role is typically limited. The default position for a capitalist economy is that, unless otherwise specified, a given product or service will be produced and marketed by private individuals using privately-held wealth.

Under capitalism, prices are set by competition in the free market, largely the result of supply and demand. When demand increases relative to supply, producers will create more supply or up their prices. When demand falls, market prices will adjust down.

The logic of capitalism is built around productivity and the idea that wealth can increase over time. This was the idea that Adam Smith introduced. Modern capitalism descends from Smith's theory that a nation's wealth does not come from its holdings of currency but from the sum of goods and services that it produces. What's more, this pool of wealth can grow over time. By increasing productivity a nation can produce more goods and services and increase its total sum of wealth.

4. What Is Comparative Advantage?

Comparative advantage is in many ways capitalism's answer to mercantilism.

This is a theory of international trade which teaches that trade and wealth are not zero-sum competitions. Rather, comparative advantage holds that trade partners can both increase their net wealth even though one will necessarily run a trade deficit against the other.

Under comparative advantage, each nation specializes in what it can produce better or more cheaply than its trading partners. This increases the net amount of goods and services produced within the trading bloc, increasing the overall wealth among those nations.

Comparative advantage holds that the lessons of a free market apply on a global scale. Among individuals within a free market economy, competition will generally drive them to work in fields at which they're best. The same holds true of nations. Without artificial barriers to trade, each nation will produce more of what it's best at, enriching everyone.

5. Example of Mercantilism

Let's say 'Empire' takes a classic mercantile trading posture toward 'Nation.' Under this philosophy, Empire will try to maximize the amount of money it collects and retains from foreign trade. It will view every dollar spent on a Nation product as lost because that dollar went out to another country.

As a result, Empire will erect trade barriers such as tariffs, regulatory hurdles and outright embargoes designed to reduce imports from Nation as much as possible. At the same time, it will try to export as much as possible to Nation, often by subsidizing export firms and clearing regulatory hurdles. Empire doesn't want Nation to erect the same kind of tariffs and obstacles that it erected because it wants trade to flow only one way.

Since this is an inherently unfair trading relationship, Empire will typically have to use political, military or outsize market pressure to ensure that Nation's markets stay open while Empire keeps its markets closed.

6. Example of Traditional Capitalism

Nation has a capitalist economy. This economy will look much like the one readers are familiar with in most western states.

Most goods and services in the marketplace of Nation will be produced by private citizens. Those citizens will own their own capital, the money and resources used to produce goods and services on the market. They will decide what to produce and how much of it based on perceived needs in the marketplace and will set prices based on supply and demand.

The government of Nation will have some role as a market actor. Since this is a market of individuals incentivized by profit, the government will typically have to exercise significant oversight to prevent abuses. This will involve regulation to prevent predictable or repeat problems. The government will also typically provide desirable goods and services that the free market doesn't tend to efficiently provide on its own. This will classically include education, police and fire protection, and possibly health care.

7. Example of Comparative Advantage

America trades with Vietnam in a hypothetical relationship.

As a high-skill economy, American companies are excellent at producing valuable products and services, but not cheaply. Even a minimum wage worker in the U.S. is expensive by some global standards. Most workers in the country, given the nation's education and business infrastructure, are extremely expensive.

As a developing economy, Vietnamese firms are not as good at producing high-skill products but can produce large volumes of work quite cheaply. Most workers in Vietnam can work for a small fraction of the cost of a U.S. employee due to a combination of skill, availability and currency.

In a clothing-related trade deal, American companies could import shirts from Vietnam. This trade deal would allow U.S. firms to design patterns and the technology for printing them, to take advantage of the U.S.' skill advantage. It would allow Vietnamese firms to mass-produce the physical garments, to take advantage of Vietnam's inexpensive labor pool. The result is that both markets increase their total wealth: Vietnam gets a net trade surplus and American consumers get more shirts for less money.

8. Is Capitalism Better Than Mercantilism?

Capitalism and capitalist trade theory is generally considered both more accurate and more stable than mercantilism. Mercantilism has two core problems that have made it an unreliable form of economic theory.

First, as noted above, mercantilism relies on inherently unfair trade balances and trade practices. Mercantile nations depend on being able to erect barriers in their own economies without their trading partners doing the same. In the long run this is an unstable situation, because peer nations rarely willingly concede to economic subservience. For this reason mercantilism has historically been intertwined with trade wars and military adventurism.

Second, also as noted above, mercantilism relies on an archaic and inaccurate view of wealth. This is a school of thought wedded to gold standard philosophy, one in which wealth is measured by currency and is a zero-sum quantity.

Modern economics considers currency a measure of wealth rather than a form of it. It is how nations interact with and trade their productivity, but the real wealth of nations is measured by the goods and services that currency gives access to. This is a fluid sum. As an economy grows through population and technology, it can produce more for all of its participants. This positive-sum reality of wealth undermines the core tenet of mercantilism