TOP PICKS IN FRONTIER MARKETS

Top Pick in the Frontier Markets

HSBC bank says Vietnam is its “most preferred” frontier market. A frontier market is one that is more developed than least developed countries, but too small, risky, or illiquid to be classified as an “emerging market” economy.

HSBC says the Southeast Asian nation is “more investable than many think.” Its positive factors including an accelerating inflow of foreign investment, a government focus on infrastructure development, structurally increasing purchasing power, and strengthening banks.

“Profitability, attractive valuations, strong balance sheets and market reforms point to the likelihood of a multi-year bull run.” Inflation is low, the currency is stable and corporate earnings are healthy.

HSBC disagrees with the common perception that Vietnam’s equity market is too small, pointing out that it now has 11 stocks with a market cap of more than $5 billion. It had only two in 2015. Trading now runs close to $1 billion a day.

The government has passed new laws that should reduce restrictions on foreign investors and put Vietnam in line for upgrading to emerging-market status. Covered warrants and other developments are helping overseas investors gain exposure to companies at their foreign ownership limits.

The potential for elevation from frontier to emerging-market class will make Vietnam much more of an investment play for international funds. Saudi Arabia was so reclassified early in 2018. Investors began pricing in that upgrade well ahead of the announcement.

Vietnam’s stockmarket is on the cusp of breaking out to new all-time highs. It has been consolidating below its 2018 and 2007 peaks for the last couple of months and retested the highs a few days ago.

Investing in Euro

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DAVID DAVIS IN DEFENCE OF ALEX SALMOND

https://youtu.be/AJjZPRTEZN8

This post covers three subjects:

The career of David Davis;

The case against Salmond and the Scottish Crown Office attempt to gag hi.;

A new law preventing people living in Scotland from speaking freely in their own homes.

David Davis, 72, is from York and South London and grew up on council estates in a one parent family. His A'level grades were not good enough first time round for a place at University so he joined the Territorials (unit 21: artists) to get money for a second run. He obtained an MBA from a Provincial uni.

Yet he was elected to parliament at the age of 39 and became the Minister for exiting the EU. What a guy!

He had pushed for a two-step referendum on Europe. First asking if people wanted to renegotiate and then putting the deal to the people. 

But he was also the guy that let the EU impose their timetable and failed to do any economic assessments of leaving.

In spite of this really brilliant speech, and her being found guilty of misleading parliament, voters will still keep Sturgeon as First Minister. 

No-one in England has any idea what is really going on up in Scotland - the wokeness, the collusion between SNP, civil service and crown prosecutors.

The Crown Office in Scotland (the Crown Prosecution, the Attorney General in the States) is currently (19 March 2021) attempting to remove Salmond's testimony from the Internet with legal action threatened against the Spectator and Guido Fawkes. It's an attack on democracy. Here is the spectator comment.

I can't believe the latest bill just voted through. You can no longer say what you think in your own home. This must get Davis' goat too.

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THE EU IS ON THE ROPES

At the national levels, most reasonable people wait patiently to be vaccinated, but the EU and its net of national officials is driven by spite.

Thus, decisions are made and reversed, and there is much argument and muddle.

This is the third muddle in as many months - they closed the border within Ireland, they ruled the vaccine unsuitable for the over-65s, now they say it causes thrombosis. Each time, emotion is overcome and facts prevail.

But each dither costs tens of thousands of lives and billions of euros.

The Commission is raw and bitter at Brexit. Its heartfelt plan for a US of Europe is proving, after 70 years, to be a utopian illusion. The Brexit rejection has wounded their self-love. The UK streaking ahead has made them very afraid. Muddle after muddle is confusing them. They are reeling.

I think Brexit has bewildered the Commission and Barnier.

As with mixed-up people, conflicting objectives - one rational, one emotional - cause upset and indecision and turning in a circle. It is a form of denial and an expression of an immature ego.

Eventually, the EU will get real or it will collapse. You have to face and accept Brexit. You must work with your neighbour. You need to see and deal with this pandemic.

Wake up ! Get real !! Deal with life !!!

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FEEL SORRY FOR THE EU

Look, feel sorry for the EU. After accusing Britain of snaffling their supplies, then advising against the AZ for over 50s, now they say this AZ vaccine causes blood clots.

They are hurt by the

UK leaving them and they are scared by covid and the vaccine and they are as usual hopelessly split on all major issues of the day.

They are overrun with emotionalism and cannot get anything right or hold the line on a single decision of any importance.

They are a nursery full of babies all throwing their rattles out of the pram at the same time.

They lost an important stabilising influence when the UK left. 

Feel sorry for their peoples', but worry about all the mutants that can now start emerging from the continent,  some of which may have the capability of overcoming our newly-primed immune systems.

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ASPERGER'S

David Byrne. As an older adult, he realised he had Asperger's, stating that music was his way of communicating when he felt he couldn't do it face to face.

His father used his electrical engineering skills to modify a reel to reel so that his son David could make multi track recordings. 

What I know is that everywhere he went he picked up pieces and made things. You couldn't stop his mad creations from fragments of his reality. It is a special skill and an obsessive focus, unconcerned with other people. It's  more a difference than a disease. 

My best friend in Qatar was Asperger's. Very sharp. The sharpest knife in the drawer. But only one knife for one meat. I took him by the shoulder of his suit and directed him across the fast roads. A highly addictive: an alcoholic who didn't drink any more; a smoker who didn't smoke; 20 cups of coffee a day; 20 cans of coke.

WHAT IS ASPERGERS?

It's at the shallow end of autism. So troubles with interacting socially.

https://youtu.be/B0jMPI_pUec

https://youtu.be/O52jAYa4Pm8

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JETHRO TULL

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_kRzeRTRJOWwDPnF5kMuMBU4dLIUByQs14

https://youtu.be/hAt1b21S97k

And the most famous:

https://youtu.be/B0jMPI_pUec

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IS DISCUSSING SKIN COLOUR RACIST TALK?

I can't see anything wrong with speculating on the colour of the next one's skin, or you may chat about whether its hair will be red, or will it have big ears like Charles? Nothing wrong with that.... anyone who says to the contrary has just got the dirty journalist mind of a little racist looking to plump up hits

.... no?

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ONE NATION TORYISM AT ITS BEST

The SNP has corrupted political life in Scotland. The system is fine, the personalities have corrupted it. 

"Levelling-up" of the economy is a positive response to address the root cause of regionalism. 

Levelling up socially socially is also needed to recognise and treat the extent of delinquency amongst the people of Scotland in certain districts (such as Glasgow). 

We can say two things: areas of high delinquency (drug abuse, poor health, low educational achievement, sub-standard housing...) are also areas of high support for the SNP; the SNP are in power and have been for ten years but have been focusing on independence instead of tackling the real problems of the people. 

Hence the injection from Westminster of big money directly into the heart of these communities to redress the root causes of the economy and the people in fact. 

This is bottom-up, practical One-Nation Toryism at its best. 

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WHY HAVE GROWTH COMPANIES TANKED?

WHY HAVE GROWTH COMPANIES TANKED

The "growth" is growth in earnings. Tremendous growth in earnings were and still are expected.

Analysts mostly value companies using the idea that if you can sum all future earnings, you've got the value of the company.

Except as £100 today is worth more than £100 next year you should apply a discount to those earnings to know what they're worth in today's money. 

And that discount rate is linked to ... inflation (up inflation, up interest rates, up discount rate).

So suddenly those companies are worth less.

But hey, not 25% less! And hey, this inflation everyone fears ... there aren't any signs and won't be for a couple of years if at all, according to the Fed.

Inflation comes from squeezing the output gap - post-covid, stimulus-inspired increase in demand will mean pressure on supply, pushing up prices.

So sounds like markets have been freaked and cool-headed investors would not be so panicked.

We'll see next week ... 

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I'M JABBING, IM JABBING

JABBING, I'M JABBING

The vaccine gets your immune system ready so should you encounter the virus you have a much better chance of overcoming it. It reduces the symptoms, hopefully to zero.

You may still be carrying some virus so in theory could infect others. But chances are vanishingly small. There's not enough data yet to answer this, nor how long immunity lasts, but the UK has been vaccinating since 8 December 2020 and six million people almost have had the jab.

My guess is immunity lasts at least five months, because that is what they've found with immunity after fighting off a real virus attack.

And of course, no long covid with the vaccine. Long covid puts 30% of those hospitalised, back in hospital within five months and kills an eighth.

The lesson as I see it is to get on and vaccinate all residents and once you get to 70%, you can consider the threat over, herd immunity reigns, and can then re-open the economy.

But! Attention mutant strains!! Even when your own people are vaccinated, be strict with new entrants by insisting on proof of their own vaccination and a PCR test or equivalent.

Once the vaccination program is up and rolling, next steps are to get the workforce ready for work and to upgrade the infrastructure, especially the tourist infrastructure. Everyone's dying to go on holiday, but the competition is rude :

Top holiday destinations for 2021:

1. Maldives

2. Mexico

3. Thailand

4. Turkey

5. Spain

6. USA

7. Malta

8. Portugal

9. Mauritius

10. South Africa.

Not to mention your neighbours, especially Vietnam.

Now, all this takes enormous sums of money. Care on how it is raised as - believe your creditors - it must be repaid if you are to survive as a sovereign state.

There are no short-cuts, no point in trying to be clever or partisan, just get on down and dedicate yourself to the welfare of the people, hi-so, low-so, not-so, north, south, central, everyone included please. It's for your own good.

Good luck everyone! See you all soon my friends!!!

JABBING, I'M JABBING

 วัคซีนทำให้ระบบภูมิคุ้มกันของคุณพร้อมดังนั้นหากคุณพบไวรัสคุณจะมีโอกาสเอาชนะได้ดีกว่ามาก  จะช่วยลดอาการหวังว่าจะเป็นศูนย์

 คุณอาจยังคงมีไวรัสอยู่ดังนั้นในทางทฤษฎีอาจทำให้ผู้อื่นติดเชื้อได้  แต่โอกาสเป็นไปได้น้อยมาก  ยังไม่มีข้อมูลเพียงพอที่จะตอบคำถามนี้และภูมิคุ้มกันจะอยู่ได้นานแค่ไหน แต่สหราชอาณาจักรได้ฉีดวัคซีนตั้งแต่วันที่ 8 ธันวาคม พ.ศ. 2563 และมีผู้คนราวหกล้านคนเกือบจะมีการกระทุ้ง

 ฉันเดาว่าภูมิคุ้มกันคงอยู่อย่างน้อยห้าเดือนเพราะนั่นคือสิ่งที่พวกเขาได้พบกับภูมิคุ้มกันหลังจากต่อสู้กับการโจมตีของไวรัสจริง

 และแน่นอนว่าไม่มีโควิดยาวกับวัคซีน  โควิดยาวทำให้ 30% ของผู้ที่เข้ารับการรักษาในโรงพยาบาลกลับเข้าโรงพยาบาลภายในห้าเดือนและคร่าชีวิตคนที่แปด

 บทเรียนตามที่ฉันเห็นคือการเข้าไปฉีดวัคซีนผู้อยู่อาศัยทุกคนและเมื่อคุณได้ถึง 70% คุณสามารถพิจารณาภัยคุกคามที่เกิดขึ้นภูมิคุ้มกันฝูงขึ้นครองราชย์และจากนั้นสามารถเปิดเศรษฐกิจใหม่ได้

 แต่!  สนใจมนุษย์กลายพันธุ์ !!  แม้ว่าคนของคุณจะได้รับการฉีดวัคซีนก็ตามให้เข้มงวดกับผู้ที่เข้ามาใหม่โดยยืนยันหลักฐานการฉีดวัคซีนของตนเองและการทดสอบ PCR หรือเทียบเท่า

 เมื่อโปรแกรมการฉีดวัคซีนเริ่มดำเนินการแล้วขั้นตอนต่อไปคือการเตรียมพนักงานให้พร้อมสำหรับการทำงานและการอัพเกรดโครงสร้างพื้นฐานโดยเฉพาะโครงสร้างพื้นฐานสำหรับนักท่องเที่ยว  ทุกคนกำลังจะไปเที่ยวพักผ่อน แต่การแข่งขันนั้นยากมาก:

 จุดหมายปลายทางยอดนิยมสำหรับวันหยุดปี 2021:

 1. มัลดีฟส์

 2. เม็กซิโก

 3. ประเทศไทย

 4. ตุรกี

 5. สเปน

 6. สหรัฐอเมริกา

 7. มอลตา

 8. โปรตุเกส

 9. มอริเชียส

 10. แอฟริกาใต้

 ไม่ต้องพูดถึงเพื่อนบ้านของคุณโดยเฉพาะเวียดนาม

 ตอนนี้ทั้งหมดนี้ใช้เงินมหาศาล  ดูแลว่ามันถูกเลี้ยงดูอย่างไร - เชื่อเจ้าหนี้ของคุณ - จะต้องได้รับการชำระคืนหากคุณจะอยู่รอดในฐานะรัฐอธิปไตย

 ไม่มีทางลัดไม่มีประเด็นในการพยายามทำตัวฉลาดหรือเข้าข้างเพียงแค่ลงและอุทิศตัวเองเพื่อความผาสุกของประชาชน  hi-so, low-so, the not-so.  กรุณารวมทุกคนด้วย  รวมคนเหนือคนใต้คนกรุงเก่าสยาม.  ด้วยค่าใช้จ่ายของคุณ  เพื่อประโยชน์ของคุณเอง

 โชคดีนะทุกคน!  เจอกันเร็ว ๆ นี้ครับเพื่อน !!!

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WHICH WAY FREEDOM OR SECURITY?

FREEDOM OR SECURITY?

At this stage in the debt cycle, the government directs the previously independent central bankto print money, without issuing collateral, which it then distributes directly to citizens.

(Previously, the central bank was buying financial assets under QE programs.)

This means the government can organise and  control people's lives directly. It can play an even bigger part in people's lives. It is a controlling force. That is its nature.

I see the driver here as debt. It is debt that is giving the government the power to control our lives. Covid is a profoundly important trigger.

I dont think exiting covid will return freedom as much as we hope, because the debt pile is that much bigger, giving government the power to direct society (which is us) as it politically chooses.

This is why Boris' government is not so partisan. We think an election brought down the red wall. Actually, it was a move to a more inclusive and totalitarian society. I dont see Labour as The Opposition, they are quite tame supporters of The Government.

In a nutshell, get rid of the debt-dependence to see a return of freedom, which is what Angl-Saxon culture values over continental security.

And final point: obviously the government cannot withdraw money from this troubled economy through taxes or cost-cutting, so to restore some freedom, that only leaves hyperinflation to burn off the debt. I cannot see right now how that will be engineered ...

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