RUSSIAN AIMS AND STRATEGY

23 April 2022

🎉🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Happy St. George’s day🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🎉

It is the land power (Russia, the Rus, the Mongol Hordes of Asia) v. The sea power (formerly the UK now America) for position as World Hegemon No. 1. That's why America and Russia are always fighting. Many think it's China? No. It's the no.1 land power v. the no.1 sea power. That's the game.

 Russia could take in Iran & Pakistan, even Japan?, so Islam and Asia, and seek to separate the UK from Europe, while fomenting dissent along race woke etc lines in the US. Their plan. Seems mad?

The Russian homeland, home to four out of five Russians, is in the European Plain. The plain stretches from the Volga to the Yangzie and the Artic to the Caspian.  Russian Govt policy is mainly made for Moscow and St Petersburg, the homeland - it is in Europe, we are fighting Europeans v. Europeans, thanks America.

That boundary Europe-Russia, in East Europe, is the world peace pivot. If you control that, you control Europe and Asia and should be able to dominate the world.  It is 2,000 kms from Finland and the Baltics, South to Romania, and has Russia's natural geographic protective anchors, such as the Baltics, Suwalki, Carpathian, Volgograd, as well as nine gateways through these, gateways that Russia must protect from historic invaders. 

So, taking Ukraine and Moldova would reduce its patrol area from 2,000 to 600 kms.

If it lost Georgia it would lose the Volgograd Gap and potential access to the Black Sea, Caucuses and Caspian.

You'd think cyber and air today, but after the artillery come the tanks and troops. How will they get through? Think Napoleon or Hitler.

You could ask, why the need for natural defensive frontiers when you've got nuclear?

Ultimately, Russian govt authority and legitimacy comes from conquest and respect abroad, as well as - as for us - meeting the needs of the core popn at home (well, our govts used to..).

As crises go, this one is more interesting than the debt 2008 crisis and coming liquidity; much more intetesting than covid; Woke is a distraction and a Big Yawn; but I wonder what comes next ... any ideas?

America is pushing Russia to the edge. Will it go nuclear?

It's true Putin has reduced countries to rubble when he can't get what he wants but in previous cases it has had little to no repurcutions on his own country whereas deploying nuclear missiles would be disastrous for him aswell and he may be crazy ( I dont think so, as above), but surely not suicidal.

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CAN YOU IMPOSE NEUTRALITY ON INDEPENDENT COUNTRIES?

23 April 2022

Why is Russia in perpetual insecurity?

Putin is treated to madman or throwback to Soviet or czarist (caesar) times, but careful examination of the geopolitical, demographic, economic and social constraints show how he perfectly rationally interprets a country's - his country's - primary need for security.

As the West seeks an adequate response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine, it is useful to understand what Vladimir Putin thinks he is doing, and why. Understanding Putin is not to apologize for him, but understanding is important in any negotiations.

Finland invaded. Sweden twice. France. Germany twice. The Turks through the Crimea.

Why Russia is so big?

It is because it is mainly flat open steppe and tundra, with no natural defences that would normally make for a border. It means one power - the Rus, the Mongols - can come to dominate this central asian plain and on to the central european plain. Russia is the heartland of Asia although its home territory, where 80% of its people live, is in Eastern Europe.

The world's weak spot is the east european border where the Russian land power meets the European (formerly British, now American) sea power. How can one power protect itself from the other?

From Russia's point of view, its natural defences - the Baltics, Suwalki Gap, Carpathian Mountains, Volgograd Gap - are also home to independent nations and so tantalisingly out of its reach, unless - for reasons of its own survival - it moves by force to take them over.

For example, taking Ukraine and the Transnistra (Moldova) would reduce the border it has, a great expense, to protect, from 2,000 km to 600.

Another example. Losing the Volgograd (Caucuses) would mean losing access to the Black Sea, Crimea and the Caspian.

Another example. When the Baltic trio got independence in 1999, Kaliningrad (Konigsberg) - a wedge-shaped piece of land along the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania - was almost cut off, access is via Belarus and the Suwalki.

Do you think NATO parking its tanks on Russia's "front porch", its "near abroad", was a good idea if NATO's intentions were purely peaceful? What of promises to respect the neutrality of the 14 former Union republicks in 1991? What is your opinion?

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