EFFECTS OF TRUMP ECONOMIC POLICIES

10 June 2024

Trump economic policy would be to cheapen the dollar, lower interest rates, and weaken the Independence of the Fed. What would the effects of such an American policy on the economy?

1. Introduction

An American policy aimed at cheapening the dollar, lowering interest rates, and weakening the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) would have far-reaching implications. This policy approach could affect various sectors of the economy, international trade, and the financial markets.

2. Impact on the Dollar

- Cheapening the Dollar: A weaker dollar makes American exports cheaper and more competitive abroad but increases the cost of imports. This could help reduce the trade deficit but might lead to inflationary pressures domestically.

3. Lowering Interest Rates

- Economic Stimulus: Lower interest rates typically encourage borrowing and spending, stimulating economic growth. This can be beneficial during economic downturns.

  

- Inflation Risk: Prolonged low interest rates can lead to higher inflation as demand outstrips supply.

  

- Savings and Investments: Lower rates reduce the returns on savings, potentially hurting retirees and others who rely on fixed incomes. It can also lead to a search for higher-yield investments, increasing risk-taking in the financial markets.

4. Weakened Independence of the Fed

- Monetary Policy: The Fed’s independence ensures that monetary policy decisions are made based on economic conditions, not political pressures. Undermining this independence could lead to short-term politically motivated decisions that might not align with long-term economic stability.

  

- Market Confidence: Investors place a high value on the credibility and predictability of the Fed. Weakening its independence could lead to uncertainty, volatility in financial markets, short-term crash up (sic, up) of the stock market, but longer term a loss of confidence, especially among international investors.

5. Potential Outcomes

- Short-term Gains: The policy might produce short-term economic gains, such as increased employment and growth, due to cheaper exports and higher domestic spending.

  

- Long-term Risks: The long-term risks include higher inflation, increased debt levels, potential asset bubbles, and reduced trust in the U.S. financial system. Over time, these risks could lead to economic instability and a loss of global financial leadership.

6. International Implications

- Global Trade: A weaker dollar can lead to competitive devaluations as other countries try to protect their export markets, potentially leading to trade tensions and currency wars.

  

- Emerging Markets: Countries with debts denominated in dollars could face increased repayment burdens, leading to financial stress and instability in these markets.

7. Conclusion

While the policy of cheapening the dollar, lowering interest rates, and weakening the Fed’s independence might offer immediate economic benefits, it poses significant long-term risks. These include inflation, financial instability, and loss of market confidence. A balanced approach, considering both short-term needs and long-term consequences, is essential for sustainable economic health.

Glossary of Terms

- Dollar cheapening: Reducing the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.

- Interest rates: The cost of borrowing money, usually expressed as a percentage.

- Fed’s independence: The ability of the Federal Reserve to operate without political interference.

Further Reading

- Federal Reserve Independence

- Impact of Exchange Rates on Trade

- Monetary Policy and Inflation

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GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, VOTER SATISFACTION, PUBLIC POLICY

18 February 2024

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/GDP-per-capita-Nominal.png

https://youtu.be/azRGcWhJqi8?si=2ZTDEc3rC7fy_eiG

... this week, Joseph "hello my friends" Wang answers the very point we, as native peoples, are concerned about....

In pt 3, (he always prepares three points, he is a brilliant analyst of weekly markets) he talks about countries that use mass immigration to continue raising their GDP, though this may NOT raise the living standards of their populations, lookedat on a per-capita basis.

Well hello-oh you Anglo-saxon countries, what will you do about declining public goods and services, and consequent civil unrest and lack of respect for, and trust in, the country's institutions?

He doesn't explicitly get into what it means for native peoples' (we the poor bloody, long-suffering, hosts!) satisfaction with life, nor the inevitable consequences for public policy, but you know very well what he's getting at (in a completely apolitical, data-driven, analysis of course...).

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DESPAIR AT THE FUTURE OF THE WEST

4 December 2023

Just to watch our foolish leaderships throw away what were once good hands. Fills me with despair. 

What can we do with our elites except remove them, how to do that? You judge a tree by its fruits. I don't want their media, their propaganda - I pay for and judge the meal in a restaurant, not the chef!

And if we don't, if we can't get them out of office? What I think about is the real value of my savings - whether inflation and currency collapse, or deflation and stagnation, my savings accumulated over my working life are worth less and less.

The only bright spots have been beating the index (so what? It's real returns that count), and gold (up 6% this year). Plus living in a decent, stable, affordable society, albeit as an outsider.

But the downside is continued destruction of my purchasing power, my culture and my sons' community where they live, drifting into govt.s of control, plus other strengthening foreign centres of power are going to take advantage of Europe and the USA more and more.

UPDATE 5 DECEMBER

It is not you and I that are going to change the world, we've had our chance.

Now it is the turn of the milleniums and gen Z.

But what will they do? Re-invent the past? Throw it over? 

Or perhaps they think they've done it with this Woke nonsense. So we will have another generation to wait?

As those the initiative is with the West! The Russians are rolling in while we make our plans. The Chinese have caught us all up in their web of Belts and Roads. The Americans won't be coming to the rescue any time soon, they've given their horses to the gypsies!

NATO is a paper tiger, Europe is like the Holy Roman Empire before Napoleon invaded, all chocolate box armies and parliaments of stuffed shirts.

You and I saw through this parody years ago! 2008 was it!?

UPDATE 6 DECEMBER

I can confirm from the macro-economics side of my life that companies making alcoholic drinks see their sales rise in times of depression, doubtless more drug abuse too, food abuse, 

declines in the mental and physical health of the people.

So we can expect higher suicide rates too. 

As a result of "the decline of the West". Indeed, we see all around us the decline of western peoples' living standards and the health of the nations.

In fact, a bit of reflection on the ticker-tape of history, the rise and fall of great empires, we see we are in actual historical fact witnessing the usual doom loop. 

Elites are manipulating governments to enrich themselves, 

they are making war on foreign elites thinking they can expand their power and wealth by pillaging their neighbours,

and through standard soothsayer media they spread propaganda at home and abroad to cover this up and keep the populus on board.

The decline is not just material, it's also in our values, which includes our faith in our system of government, ie in democracy itself. This is what happens, and it is entirely predictable, it is what links are past and our present to our future.

“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

We need to be far more doubting of govt news channels, far more discriminating of who we listen to, and more trusting of our own judgements. The aren't quick fixes to these kind of problems and we should not be brow-beaten by governments into believing that there are - it takes a 20 year long haul to effect profound radical change after which we can expect stability and peace, at least for a long while, during which education and new knowledge & understanding develops, and material wealth increases starting from the treasure taken by the New Empire from the Old.

                           This is the circle of history.

It takes tough times for the hero promising  redemption to emerge. But to get into this sorry state it requires the weak man or men or gov.ts - this is the prerequisite of the strong man, who is the hero. Myths - many cycles of history condensed into a story - going back to the Greeks and doubtless before tell us this story. The hero starts out weak as he has not yet developed his powers. Then through a series of difficult trials with his adversaries he develops strength and skills. He then uses these to overhaul the system and bring peace and prosperity to his people.

Meaning that from all this Mess and Injustice we can expect populist leaders to step forward, wanting to force through tough ideological cleanup programmes of action on root causes. Only outsiders can clean up this mess, the power elite will never voluntarily let go. Outsiders from within or without.

How will these new leaders seize power? They will do it in the usual way: by inciting the populus - mainly younger people who are uninvested and despairing and think they are bullet-proof - to take to the streets.

We can see that the elite won't give up power and wealth, it is the height of naivety to imagine that radical reform can be voted through the Ballot Box, so what else can the people do? 

It is only utopian reform or rebirth that can deal with the final results of greed. Greed that is satisfied in the fiscal process. The people stay happy with welfare and propaganda, while the elite purloin the wealth of the country through corrupt and mediocre politicians. But eventually, it comes to a point where there's so much mess and putrification that it needs radical change. This change can be brought about from within or from without. 

Which is better - radical overhaul from within, or radical overhaul from without? The former is revolution. The latter is war or migration.

"Without" meaning on account of internal weakness, a country gets taken over and becomes part of someone else's empire, a rising empire. 

That's history, it is a circle with knowledge and technology as the only straight lines of progress. 

Knowledge from which our elites understand sweet nothing. 

History from which our elites understand sweet nothing.

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WHEN WILL THE FED PIVOT?

4 October 2023

Of course , America will never default on interest payments, which currently make up about 40% of tax receipts, but with a 32 trillion dollar debt and a higher for longer or even higher, there will be effects on the value of the currency ... maybe not now, but in a year or two's time

So that is one thing that would worry other sovereign governments wondering where to put their surpluses - is the dollar safe ?

another point they will think about is the illegal sanctions levied on Russia and the confiscation of its treasure. Particularly given America's a hard line attitude that if you are not with us you are against us so for example where does this leave India and how certain can China be that it's one or two trillion dollars of American government bonds will not be confiscated?.

Growth is not going to be enough to keep up interest payments without printing let alone pay down the debt. But this just means currency debasement, as I say maybe not now but within a couple of years.

To fight inflation - which doesn't in all seriousness look like it is really going away the current CPI says 3.7% but if you use volcas method it is more like 11.5% - hire interest rates are needed also to support the value of the currency and ensure that the extra billion of borrowing can be absorbed.

And yeah higher interest rates will destroy the system - higher interest rates mean higher corporate refinancing costs and lower profits, plus now we are a year nearer to the refinancing cliff than we were when the fed started raising

And higher interest rates mean credit costs to customers increase and this will cut back spending, ie lower revenues in the first place. If spending falls then firms will start to lay off workers. In fact rising unemployment is the last domino in the signals that we are entering recession.

So what is the fed to do? Surely given a choice between protecting the system or protecting the currency, it will choose the system. This would mean we are talking about the famous and long anticipated pivot - QE and rates back to zero, expand the credit supply but at the cost of still further debt. Increased credit an inflexible supply of raw materials will just provoke inflation again. And expanding the money supply for a fixed supply of inputs and goods, may restore demand, but it is like adding water to your wine it waters down the value of the currency, it debateses the currency. 

No wonder governments with a surplus are selling U.S treasuries and buying gold they are moving away from financial assets and into hard assets These Are the safest in the coming crisis.

But now comes the 64-million dollar question. When will the fed start printing again? Will it be when the system shows signs of destroying itself - for example a market crash? Or will a more determined and subtle Fed let everything descend into semi-chaos before cutting rates and starting QE? Hasn't the last year or two been about the Fed bolstering its tools, in the form of higher interest rates and lower money supply, in preparation for the next (the last? Yikes!) crisis and recession?

More cynically still, more realistically perhaps, just consider the matter from the point of view of supply and demand. The supply is pretty much infinite as we have seen - the govt does not balance its budget, it just spends more and more and more, regardless of tax receipts. For this reason, the US Treasury requires 1.5 to 2 trillion dollars of extra debt every year for the foreseeable future.

The demand was from the fed itself as it was practising QE. Also the banks were major buyers - hundreds of billions - but last year both stepped away and now this left hedge funds as the major buyer. Hedge funds can use cash-settled futures contracts on US government bonds for various reasons, such as hedging their portfolio risk, speculating on interest rate movements, or gaining exposure to the bond market without owning the physical bonds extra 2%.

Next in line after the Fed, the banks and the hedge funds, come pension funds and insurance companies. These funds are conservative in outlook, and yet as was revealed last year in the UK's liability driven insurance crisis, in fact these pension funds invest in equities; while insurers go for fixed income - but corporate bonds rather than treasuries as the upside spread of maybe 2% is more than the downside risk. But after these potential buyers, who? No-one,so expect bonds to drift higher.

From the point of view of supply and demand then the supply is pretty much infinite while the demand appears to be evaporating in conclusion we can say that it will not be the fed lowering rates that determines the cost of money it will be instead the market and the direction seems to be up on yields which without fed intervention i.e restarting QE would destroy the bond market.

And yet QE results in inflation and eventually currency debasement.

Surely the Fed knows this! I strongly believe that the real and true strategy of the Fed, and it's only choice since raising rates beyond a certain point will destroy the bond Market and thus equities and financial assets and the economy itself. is to burn off the debt through inflation and currency debasement. 

If you believe this then you'll believe that despite Powell's rhetoric, the Fed will have to pivot, ie print to buy up the excess govt bond issuance. So you'll want to put your money into hard assets such as precious metals and commodities and not leave it in equities, you'll want to avoid endebted or low-yield equities.

Further, you'll want to believe that in some way after burning off the debt, there will be recovery and the US will keep its top dog place!

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WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE UK ECONOMY - PT 1

What concerns ordinary people, and therefore politicians, about the economy at the moment is inflation and mortgage interest rates. What they want in general is financial stability, economic growth and social peace.

While governments dream up tax and spend programs, central banks are supposed to keep the economy ship-shape as concerns stable prices for consumers, employment and productivity for producers, and currency exchange rate and reserves for traders.

The opposite of financial stability is breakneck change. Decades of excessive govt, commercial and private sector debt, has been achieved by tremebdously cheap money and vast increases in the money supply. These spending sprees have devalued our currency, heated up inflation, central banks have responded by shrinking credit availability and raising rates at speeds never before seen.

We cannot expect economic growth when the factors of production like supply, wages and taxes, go up; while demand falls. Plus poor productivity from underinvestment, high divi payouts with too much defensive industry, and not enough learning  innovation and technology. Plus housing is way too expensive compared to wages so excessive investment in bricks misallocates capital.

And finally, peace on the streets depends on equality, equality in the distribution of assets which seems to be 95-5%; and the shareout of profits between capital and labour.

If those goals can be shared and agreed, if the problems and requirements can be addressed with strategies that are seen to be fair, then we might have a bit less conflict, a bit more pride, frugality and hard work, and then maybe more harmony in our society and less greed and anger.

We need serious programs from serious politicians and competent central banks.

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STUDENT LOANS

University students are the very lifeblood of the UK economy. 

This govt under johnson is splashing cash around to many millions of worthless types, like there is no tomorrow, which there may well not be; it is letting thousands more worthless types scramble up UK beaches every week to join their friends in luxury hotel accomodation, at my expense, while awaiting their passports.

And you mean to tell me the govt makes these kids pay for a world-beating education? And pay again in higher tax take? And pay again and again in housing costs inflated by reckless monetary policies, in order for these students to provide a prosperous future for us all and intelligent home-grown talent for generations to come ?

How does education help a country? The level of education is measurable. It is a leading indicator of a country's success relative to other countries. Because an educated workforce opens the door to science, innovation and technology. Technology, in turn, is the bedrock for a competitive economy. So in cause-effect chains, begin by educating your children and your workforce. The effect will be greater productivity through mass-scale application of scientific discovery, which is called technology. This results in a world beating, export-led economy.

I am a believer in a small state with low taxes, but charging individual youngsters for an investment in this country's future is not going to make us great.

Education is a common good. You cannot foresee those, amongst a rising generation, generation Y, will go on to produce world beating ideas, technologies and leadership. If you cannot pick winners at school, you must educate all and not restrict education to, or encourage only, only those who can pay. Student loans squander our future and the futures of our kids. 

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BRACE FOR INTEREST RATE RISES

10 October 2021

Petrol - isnt this where fears of inflation started? There's all you need to take your kids to school, we are told, it's in the country somewhere, just not in the right places. So it's only haulage.

Later, we are told it is a multitude of small, short-term issues, of which panic-buying fuel is but the latest, and once we're through we'll be in global-Britain times enjoying our prosperity, power and independence to the max.

But will we? As it feels as though the situation is worsening, with bad surprises flying in every week. And for the causes, don't look local, because these are global supply chain problems. Of course.

Looking at why the army is being sent in and why temporary visas (as it is only a short-term problem) are being issued (and already extended):

working conditions, pay, red tape, laziness and over-sensitivities, many drivers quitting because of the lockdowns, not training up new HGV operators, and not women, Brexit causing many to return home, giving a shortage of 100,000 drivers. That's a lot and you do wonder what the RHA has been doing - all asleep in their cabs!

We are talking about logistics for retail food and fuel, but that's not all. What we are talking about is shipping costs, and gas price rises and a drop in sterling, we're concerned about inflation and interest rates, tax rises both 2.5% NI (yes, 2.5%) and local authority tax rises, and ultimately how all this joins up to the medium and long term as concerns the EU FTA, the break-up of the kingdom, and beyond that to recession, debt-collapse, climate change, migrations, the rise of China.

We can imagine low interest rates and high inflation, followed by high interest rates and recession. If high-wage, capital is going to replace labour and put those low-wage often immigrant, workers on the dole, at taxpayer expense.

It's a lot for Boris to think about (we are getting into a cult figure status).

Can we see what's happening through this glare of more and more short-term problems? Saunders is interesting

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/09/brace-interest-rate-rises-warns-bank-england-rate-setter/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr. 

Oil prices have reached a three year high, $80 a barrel, and climbing thanks to output disruptions and this high demand. Traditional oil companies are selling out and investing in green, adding to supply problems and green is much more expensive. Germany is now back to relying on coal and on Putin!

Then there's the construction sector where more than one in three businesses can't get the materials, goods and services they need within the UK. How will a young person rehab the flat they've just bought? What effect on the target of 300,000 housing starts?

The gas surge closed two of the UK’s big industrial fertiliser plants in a completely unexpected and inflationary surprise, showing graphically how everything is connected to everything and everywhere there are knife-edges,resulting in more govt takeover in the "market" economy and state aid and yet more borrowing.

Food prices and staples. Commodities. Is this the start of a new supercycle?

So now we have inflation at 4 per cent for the short-term, plus a possible base rate rise early next year, possibly even this year 2021. America same same. Plus if we enter the land of 5% inflation there will be the threat to stock markets, not just imminent tapering.

Still, no significant upturn in unemployment nor  substantial corporate distress. Only inflation, supply difficulties that threaten the economic recovery (which is already faltering).

And what about the jobs of those coming off furlough? Will they want to back to work? Will employers have work for them? Given the worsening outlook.

Only worries and questions. No real answers. Yet everyone is talking of recession. And the Prince of Norway offers the UK help with food and fuel. That's quite humiliating.

Sort out the short term, the central bank needs to say no interest rate rises medium term, but the long term is surely out of the hands of management or politicians.

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PETROL SHORTAGES : THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT

Petrol - there's all you need to take your kids to school. We are told it's in the this country somewhere, just not in the right places. So it's only haulage.

We are told it is a multitude of small, short-term issues, of which panic-buying fuel is but the latest, and once we're through we'll be in global Britain-times enjoying our prosperity, power and independence to the max.

But as you say, will we? As it feels as though the situation is worsening, with bad surprises flying in every week. And for cause, don't look local, because these are global supply chain problems.

Looking at why the army is being sent in and why temporary visas (as it is only a short-term pb) are being issued (and already extended):

working conditions, pay, red tape, laziness and over-sensitivities, many drivers quitting because of the lockdowns, not training up new HGV operators, and not women, Brexit causing many to return home, giving a shortage of 100,000 drivers. That's a lot and you do wonder what the RHA has been doing - all asleep in their cabs!

We are talking about logistics for retail food and fuel, but that's not all. What we are talking about is shipping costs, and gas price rises and a drop in sterling, we're concerned about inflation and interest rates, tax rises, and ultimately how all this joins up to the medium and long term as concerns the EU FTA, the break-up of the kingdom, and beyond that to debt-collapse, climate change, migrations, the rise of China.

It's a lot for Boris to think about (we are getting into a cult figure status).

More short term problems, but even these, can we see any better? Oil prices have reached a three year high, $80 a barrel, and climbing thanks to output disruptions and this high demand. Traditional oil companies are selling out and investing in green, but that is much more expensive. Germany is relying onxoal and Putin!

Then theres the construction sector where more than one in three businesses can't get the materials, goods and services they need within the UK. How will my son rehab the flat he's just bought? What effect housing 300,000 starts?

The gas surge closed two of the UK’s big industrial fertiliser plants in a completely unexpected and inflationary surprise, resulting in more govt takeover in the "market" economy and state aid and yet more borrowing.

 So now we have inflation at 4 per cent for the short-term plus a possible base rate rise early next year. America same same with the threat to stock markets from tapering.

 Still, no significant upturn in unemployment nor  substantial corporate distress. Only inflation, supply difficulties NI rise to threaten the economic recovery (which is already faltering).

And what about the jobs of those coming off furlough? Will they want to back to work? Will employers have work for them? Given the worsening outlook.

 Sort out the short term, the central bank needs to say no int  rate rises medium term, but the long term is surely out of the hands of any one country.

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