13 August 2022
THE ISSUE
Nancy Pelosi, leader America's House of Representatives, has just returned from a controversial unofficial visit to Taiwan. Lithuania is sending a delegation to Taiwan on a 5 day tour and Taiwan is about to open some sort of office consulate in Vilnius.
Why would anyone want to cut the beard of the Chinese dragon?
As a matter of identity, the people of Taiwan, in polls, self-identify as Taiwanese, and have chosen the Republic of China ROC to govern them.
Aswhere China - the present govt at least, the PRC - identifies them as Chinese.
That's because the PRC's wish is to extend its jurisdiction as executive authority to include Taiwan - easy to understand the strategic logic, but is it "right"?
Can you be Scottish and British, or is it Scottish or British? It's about who has the legitimacy to govern you, ie who can make the rules, by majority vote of all the representatives, that you accept as legitimate.
Diplomatically, any second party country unwilling to choose unambiguously between "One China" or "One China One Taiwan" (no comma) could sidestep the question of who is the first party by setting up offices for trade and local diplomatic relations under the name "Taipei" - Taipei the city is not a country with a frontier and a government, but local diplomats could represent local people, maintain relationships at a local level and shape future trade and relations. This is the solution chosen by all countries except Lithuania, and China has overlooked this.
So instead of continuing with "strategic ambiguity" (which recognises Taiwan without saying so), why did Lithuania "cut the beard of the Chinese dragon" (cf "poke the bear in the eye with a sharp stick"); and, as Lithuania is a member of the European Union, what are the consequences for China and the EU?