THE EMERGENCE OF RUSSIA

16 June 2024

THE EMERGENCE OF RUSSIA

1. The Origin of the Slavic People and the Eastern Slavs

- Early Slavs: The Slavic people emerged in Eastern Europe around the 5th century AD. They were originally divided into three main groups: Western Slavs, Southern Slavs, and Eastern Slavs.

- Eastern Slavs: The Eastern Slavs settled in areas that are now part of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. They established early tribal confederations and laid the foundations for future states.

2. The Vikings and the Kievan Rus

- Viking Descent: In the 9th century, Viking traders and warriors, known as Varangians, began to travel along the river routes of Eastern Europe. They traded, raided, and eventually settled in the region.

- Formation of Kievan Rus: Around 882, the Varangian leader Oleg seized control of Kiev, establishing the state of Kievan Rus. This state united various Slavic tribes under a central authority.

- Expansion: Kievan Rus expanded its influence from the Baltic Sea in the north, through Kiev, to the Black Sea in the south. It also maintained significant trade relations with Constantinople (Byzantium) and the Middle East.

- Golden Age: The 10th and 11th centuries marked the peak of Kievan Rus's power, with the adoption of Christianity in 988 under Prince Vladimir the Great, aligning the state culturally and politically with Byzantium.

3. Genghis Khan, the Mongols, and the Golden Horde

- Genghis Khan: In the early 13th century, Genghis Khan united the Mongol tribes and embarked on a series of conquests that created one of the largest empires in history, stretching from China to Europe.

- Mongol Invasion of Rus: In the 1230s, the Mongols, led by Batu Khan (Genghis Khan’s grandson), invaded Kievan Rus. By 1240, they had destroyed Kiev and subjugated the region.

- The Golden Horde: The western part of the Mongol Empire, known as the Golden Horde, ruled over the Russian principalities. The Golden Horde collected tribute from the Russian lands and exerted political control, influencing the development of Russian states.

- Moscow’s Rise: During the Mongol period, Moscow grew in power and influence. By the late 14th and early 15th centuries, Moscow began to assert its independence, culminating in the defeat of Mongol forces at the Battle of Kulikovo in 1380.

4. Synthesis: The Evolution of Russia

- Foundation: The early Eastern Slavs laid the cultural and ethnic foundations for future Russian states.

- Kievan Rus: The Viking influence and the establishment of Kievan Rus created the first significant East Slavic state, integrating Slavic and Norse elements and establishing crucial cultural and political ties with Byzantium.

- Mongol Rule and Moscow’s Ascendancy: The Mongol invasion and subsequent rule by the Golden Horde drastically altered the political landscape. The period of Mongol dominance saw the rise of Moscow, which eventually emerged as the new centre of power, leading to the formation of the Russian state.

Glossary of Terms:

- Varangians: Norse traders and warriors who settled in Eastern Europe.

- Kievan Rus: A medieval state founded by the Varangians, centred around Kiev.

- Golden Horde: A Mongol khanate that ruled over parts of Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. 1Ine of four appanages created by Genghis Khan

Further Reading:

- [The Primary Chronicle](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/basis/primarychronicle.asp) - Fordham University

- [History of Kievan Rus](https://www.britannica.com/place/Kievan-Rus) - Encyclopedia Britannica

- [The Mongol Empire](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Mongol-empire) - Encyclopedia Britannica

Read More

MOSCOW HAS NOT BEEN SACKED

24 June 2023

Putin has always treated Prigozhin like a wayward kid brother and now lets him off the hook and slink away to Belarus, a less well structured state where he Prigozhin could do real damage - Belarus is almost as important to Russian security as Ukraine.

In a Western democracy, Prigozhin would be under lock and key by now.

Imagine if Prigozhin had reached Moscow and begun looting. Reminds me of those few hundred crusaders who got into Constantinople and sacked it before being beaten away. Or the military who challenged de Gaulle back in 1962 over his decision to liberate Algeria.

People are pointing out how weak Russia is north of Ukraine and a push by Ukraine would give a Kievian army access to the M4 motorway and Moscow, as had Wagner. Well, many have gone in (over 50 invasions, helps understand Russian security concerns), Napoleon the best known, the Germans tried it, history is that few have come out in one piece, so Kiev en route to Moscow is a bit fanciful ... but increasing surprises in the world today ... I'd not have imagined Moscow would let Prigozhin get this far, it sows doubts about the governance of Russia frankly.

===

A coup attempt - to denounce and decry as a coup would be a classic tactic of Putin's enemies. But attempted coup it was, though Prigozhin has denied trying to topple the govt, saying he had wanted to object to a decision to disband his militia as well as demonstrate the weakness of Russia’s domestic defences.

This was an increasingly vitrioloc attack by a battlefield commander (more on that later) on his generals sitting back in HQ. Yevgeny Prigozhin considers he was deliberately undersupplied with munitions by envious armchair generals. 

From what I can understand, Prigozhin was deliberately slowed down in this military operation named by Russia named Operation Meat Grinder (sic - Russian military gave this  name, or adopted it) because the idea was that the Ukrainians would file into the Bahkmout trap and be annihilated - the longer they filed in the better for this strategy of attrition.

But of course the longer the strategy went on the more of Prigozhin's soldiers were sacrificed. There is one famous video of him standing in front of the bodies of 94 of his men killed he says because they did not have munitions in sufficient quantities to defend themselves.

On the one hand, you can argue that this is proof that Putin is not a dictator; but what is worrying is Putin's slack treatment of this insubordination, as though Prigozhin were a wayward kid brother. His whole approach to the war has been to try and spare the suffering, to spare the lives of his troops and also civilian lives in Ukraine.

So putting all this together, we get the impression of a rather too political or soft leadership - Putin has even let Prigozhin off the hook, aswhere we would have put him in gaol, as he is now off to Belarus where he may cause more trouble again.

While the pro-Russian chattering classes on telegram etc all rally round Putin, including Putin's harshest critics, we do come away with the worrisome impression that Putin is not fully in charge, not fully in control - this is worrisome to his people, but also to his allies. 

===

Strange that Ukraine's offensive and Prigordzin's coup both coincided and both required Russian weakness if they were to succeed.

Prigozhin has a massive energy behind a massive ego. This rant of his has been building since February.  Russian authorities allowed all that and seemingly didn't see the trek up the M4 coming. The Russians are so confident they didn't imagine others would perceive weakness.

The attempt failed because Prigozhin had no support and the authorities mobilised quickly to put it down without bloodshed.

So it shows how solid is Russia's present political system, but it also demonstrates a strength of democracy, that opposition can flow through institutional channels and not butt against them.

My memory of this short-lived rebellion will be Putin's speech comparing this with 1917 - must be said seemed a bit panicky.

===

It was in CNN 2 weeks beforehand... but of course no one in Russia reads the Western press, not for a moment.

What I would like to know is who organised this? Because Prigozhin, a figurehead, lacking military qualifications, relying on his generals, couldn't have done it on his own

But his generals didn't support him.

So he must have had outside help.

And yet no one in Russian Society supported him either.

So where did that help come from, I wonder... not that I'm paranoid or a conspiracist

We need Seymour Hersch on the trail.

Seems everyone knew what was going on except of course Putin

And that includes Prigozhin, aware he had no support, neither within Wagner, nor within Russian society ... if true what was he thinking about? What was he doing this for? Well, now he has given his explanation.

Read More

RUSSIAN AIMS AND STRATEGY

23 April 2022

🎉🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Happy St. George’s day🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🎉

It is the land power (Russia, the Rus, the Mongol Hordes of Asia) v. The sea power (formerly the UK now America) for position as World Hegemon No. 1. That's why America and Russia are always fighting. Many think it's China? No. It's the no.1 land power v. the no.1 sea power. That's the game.

 Russia could take in Iran & Pakistan, even Japan?, so Islam and Asia, and seek to separate the UK from Europe, while fomenting dissent along race woke etc lines in the US. Their plan. Seems mad?

The Russian homeland, home to four out of five Russians, is in the European Plain. The plain stretches from the Volga to the Yangzie and the Artic to the Caspian.  Russian Govt policy is mainly made for Moscow and St Petersburg, the homeland - it is in Europe, we are fighting Europeans v. Europeans, thanks America.

That boundary Europe-Russia, in East Europe, is the world peace pivot. If you control that, you control Europe and Asia and should be able to dominate the world.  It is 2,000 kms from Finland and the Baltics, South to Romania, and has Russia's natural geographic protective anchors, such as the Baltics, Suwalki, Carpathian, Volgograd, as well as nine gateways through these, gateways that Russia must protect from historic invaders. 

So, taking Ukraine and Moldova would reduce its patrol area from 2,000 to 600 kms.

If it lost Georgia it would lose the Volgograd Gap and potential access to the Black Sea, Caucuses and Caspian.

You'd think cyber and air today, but after the artillery come the tanks and troops. How will they get through? Think Napoleon or Hitler.

You could ask, why the need for natural defensive frontiers when you've got nuclear?

Ultimately, Russian govt authority and legitimacy comes from conquest and respect abroad, as well as - as for us - meeting the needs of the core popn at home (well, our govts used to..).

As crises go, this one is more interesting than the debt 2008 crisis and coming liquidity; much more intetesting than covid; Woke is a distraction and a Big Yawn; but I wonder what comes next ... any ideas?

America is pushing Russia to the edge. Will it go nuclear?

It's true Putin has reduced countries to rubble when he can't get what he wants but in previous cases it has had little to no repurcutions on his own country whereas deploying nuclear missiles would be disastrous for him aswell and he may be crazy ( I dont think so, as above), but surely not suicidal.

Read More

CAN YOU IMPOSE NEUTRALITY ON INDEPENDENT COUNTRIES?

23 April 2022

Why is Russia in perpetual insecurity?

Putin is treated to madman or throwback to Soviet or czarist (caesar) times, but careful examination of the geopolitical, demographic, economic and social constraints show how he perfectly rationally interprets a country's - his country's - primary need for security.

As the West seeks an adequate response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine, it is useful to understand what Vladimir Putin thinks he is doing, and why. Understanding Putin is not to apologize for him, but understanding is important in any negotiations.

Finland invaded. Sweden twice. France. Germany twice. The Turks through the Crimea.

Why Russia is so big?

It is because it is mainly flat open steppe and tundra, with no natural defences that would normally make for a border. It means one power - the Rus, the Mongols - can come to dominate this central asian plain and on to the central european plain. Russia is the heartland of Asia although its home territory, where 80% of its people live, is in Eastern Europe.

The world's weak spot is the east european border where the Russian land power meets the European (formerly British, now American) sea power. How can one power protect itself from the other?

From Russia's point of view, its natural defences - the Baltics, Suwalki Gap, Carpathian Mountains, Volgograd Gap - are also home to independent nations and so tantalisingly out of its reach, unless - for reasons of its own survival - it moves by force to take them over.

For example, taking Ukraine and the Transnistra (Moldova) would reduce the border it has, a great expense, to protect, from 2,000 km to 600.

Another example. Losing the Volgograd (Caucuses) would mean losing access to the Black Sea, Crimea and the Caspian.

Another example. When the Baltic trio got independence in 1999, Kaliningrad (Konigsberg) - a wedge-shaped piece of land along the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania - was almost cut off, access is via Belarus and the Suwalki.

Do you think NATO parking its tanks on Russia's "front porch", its "near abroad", was a good idea if NATO's intentions were purely peaceful? What of promises to respect the neutrality of the 14 former Union republicks in 1991? What is your opinion?

Read More

THE ORIGINS OF RUSSO PHOBIA

27 February 2022

 A great presentation and question and answer session with Tom and John Measheimer. 

https://youtu.be/Nbj1AR_aAcE

One. On the origins of Russo-phobia. 

This argument from John is quite American centric. If you live in Europe, you might have a different perspective. 

But I would say from the American perspective that the dislike of Russia goes back past the Monroe doctrine to Woodrow Wilson's talk in 1916.

 And from the European point of view, you have to go all the way back past the centuries and see that the threat is almost ingrained and instinctive as it originates in a nomadic people living on the euro Asian plateau, poor steppes land, and always moving westward. These were migratory invasions, I would imagine, as perceived by the Europeans of the time. There was also Tamerlane, Genghis Khan, Marco Polo, the mongol hordes, and Josef Stalin was from Georgia.

 Two. On the other point about the part played by nuclear weapons. 

I would say that Russia and Putin see themselves as truly under a real existential threat. If Putin fails in his Ukraine invasion, surely he will be replaced, and even if he succeeds the sanctions are likely to put a lot of pressure on those who formerly supported him to get rid of the dictator. We saw in the eyes of his security council this week a lot of fear, of course, but enough to stop an assassin?

If Ukraine fails for the Russians and the States wins again, this would be fatal for Russia, surely? There's the threat of a colour revolution at home. There's the Russian power elite losing control. There's potentially a breakup of Russia itself. 

 So surely in this situation where the very existence of Russia or of Putin is threatened, Russia would play its final card and quite possibly launch a hypersonic nuclear tipped missile on Washington. They travel at 25,000 miles an hour, they are virtually undetectable, and they would take 15 minutes from launch to destroy the White House.

  Three. This brings me to a final and rather wild thought. 

If Russia ceases to exist as a country and is in some way or other taken over by democratic liberal forces, where does this leave the pivot to Asia? China would wake up with a new neighbour. Nato would have a new purpose as it would be able to encircle and menace China, this time from the North.

Putin himself explains russo-phobia by saying that the West fears Russia because of its size:

https://youtu.be/MOkl2XgZlw0

Read More