6 October 2024
Here is Joseph Wang including geopolitics in his markets weekly report (and seems to be taking sides even, from the point of view of the investor, though he does say he's saddened by these developments in the Middle East).
The main point he is making is that Israel sees this as a "generational opportunity" to expand its territory and the window will likely be closed by the next presidential election. So if they're going to do anything they will do it now. "Now" means in the next couple of weeks!
Markets Weekly 4 Oct 2024
But he doesn't actually go into what might be the effects of an all-out war between Israel backed by America, and Iran, on asset prices.
So in summary, here's what analysts, reading from previous wars, are saying we could expect:
1. Short-term sharp decline in stock markets due to global uncertainty and market fear.
2. Oil price spike leading to higher costs, inflation, and pressure on corporate profits.
3. Sector-specific effects: Energy stocks may rise, while tech, consumer, and industrial sectors could face declines.
4. Safe-haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries would likely see inflows, while equities would experience outflows.
5. Long-term recovery in asset prices, especially stock markets, is possible, but would depend on the length and scale of the conflict and its impact on global trade and energy supplies.
