WILL RUSSIA QUIT SYRIA
CURRENT GEOPOLITICS AND MACKINDER’S PIVOT OF HISTORY
16 December 2024
While we talk about the rush to a multipolar world and the end of block politics, reality is we have numerous conflicts. In this article, I will argue that these are best viewed as approximating to one long joined-up front line between America and its allies, and the Rest of the World. From Ukraine, through the Donbas and Crimea and The Black Sea, the Caususes (Georgia, Armenia, Azabaijan), Syria Lebanon Israel Jordan Iraq, the Caspian Sea, Iran, Central Asia (the Stans), Afghanistan, Pakistan, China.
Seen this way, of course Russia will want to stay in Syria and of course Iran will develop the nuclear and whilesodoing will need Russia's protection from Israel.
This is best understood by going back to that famous Glaswegian, Halford Mackinder and his heartland analysis from 1904:
"Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island;
who rules the World Island commands the world."
Later summarised in 1919 thus:
"Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;
who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;
who rules the World-Island commands the world"
- Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality, p. 150
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
John J. Mearsheimer's Realist thinking derives from this, as Mackinder argues that while democratic ideals focus on freedom, equality, and self-determination; it is geopolitical realities - particularly geography and strategies for resource control – that shape the power dynamics and actions of nations.
We could naively suppose that democracies would prioritise idealistic goals of freedom, democracy, the rule of law, but neglect the strategic imperatives of geography and power and so by focusing solely on ideals, democracies risk being outmanoeuvred by those – call them “ruthless cynics”, call them “authoritarian regimes” - exploiting the geopolitical realities.
I don't think Mearsheimer would agree for a moment! And we see every day ruthless and cunning planning coming out of Israel and America.
What we see rather, is alliances developing emperor strategies for regional and world domination, more specifically USA preventing Germany or Russia or China from dominating the Heartland. The goal is for America to retain its hegemony, its territories, global stability on the trade routes, stability in oil prices and supply, and the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Mackinder contrasts maritime powers – Holland, then Britain, now USA - with land-based powers – Hapsburg, Russia, China (previously with the Silk Road and now BRI, but today developing a powerful blue-water navy).
Sea power was always the dominant in history, but the rise of railways and land-based infrastructure since Mackinder’s writings, increased the strategic value of the Heartland. For example the economic value of Russia's grain energy and mineral wealth, Taiwan's chipsets, and China's rare earths as well as China’s being the world leader in manufacturing.
Mackinder found solutions (solutions which are unfortunately ignored by the West). He proposes creating a preventative geopolitical buffer or Security Architecture, with a balance of power agreement. This would include sophisticated limits on military assets in Eastern Europe and verifiable checks and balances. The purpose would be to prevent domination of the Heartland by Germany or Russia. But instead of an agreement, we have George Kennan’s strategy of containment.
