Showing posts with label #Housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #Housing. Show all posts

Tuesday, 19 November 2024

EXPECT 4.5% MORTGAGE RATES

19 November 2024

If you are thinking of buying a property, or having to re-mortgage after your 2 or 5 yr fixed rate expires, expect higher mortgage repayments.

From all I can work out, it looks like the BoE bank rate could be settling down from 4.75% today to a terminal rate of 4.25% in the second quarter of next year.

So there are hopes of Bank of England base interest rate cuts.... But this isn't the same as your mortgage rate., oh nooooo !

You'll be on a fixed-rate deal (2 or 5 yrs), and fixed rates move with swap rates, not the BoE base rate.

How are swap rates worked out?

"Fixed-for-floating swaps" is a deal where party A receives a variable interest rate linked to the BoE base rate over a period, by paying party B a fixed rate. 
Then party B adds on its costs and profit margin and that's what you, party C rhe mortgagor, will pay.

So the fixed rate reflects where market participants A and B expect BoE interest rates to average over the course of their agreement. 

As a result, swap rates tend to change when interest rate expectations change - expectations rather than actual interest rates.

The five-year swap rate has climbed from 3.75 to 4% since the Budget – despite the recent 0.25% interest rate cut to 4.75% BoE base rate.

Remarkably, more than a third of mortgagors are still paying rates of less than 3 per cent, thanks to cheap deals secured before rate hikes began. These are almost all due to expire over the next two years. 

This means that for the country as a whole, average mortgage rates are going to increase next year – even as the base rate falls further.

As the chart above shows, the Office for Budget Responsibility OBR forecasts that average rates will keep rising to 4.5 per cent by 2027, and stay elevated all the way to 2030. According to the BoE, the average household rolling off a cheap deal and having to remortgage, will see repayments increase by a quarter, or £180 a month. For an unlucky 400,000 mortgagors, payments are set to increase by 50 per cent or more.

So we need to put that in our budget spreadsheets. Locate your expected purchase or remortgage date on the graph above and then put that number in your spreadsheet, less any first-time buyer discount if applicable.

Tuesday, 8 October 2024

BRITAIN'S FIFTY MOST DESIRABLE TOWNS

8 October 2024


SUMMARY


1. Overview

A study by Savills, using census data, compiled a list of Britain's 50 most desirable towns. Factors considered include residents' job profiles, educational qualifications, health, and house prices. The South East dominates the list, with Harpenden in Hertfordshire ranking first.

2. Key Findings

Top towns in the South East: Harpenden, Cobham, and Beaconsfield lead the rankings. These towns attract wealthy families due to their proximity to London, good schools, and strong housing markets.

Northern standouts: Wilmslow (Cheshire) and Altrincham (Greater Manchester) show that not all the hotspots are near London. Wilmslow climbed eight spots from previous rankings.

New entries: Hurstpierpoint (West Sussex), Hitchin (Hertfordshire), and Bath made significant jumps in rankings.


3. Top 5 Towns

1. Harpenden, Herts: Well-educated population, excellent transport links, average house price £913,000.


2. Cobham, Surrey: Highest average property price at £1.4m, popular for its cafes and countryside.


3. Beaconsfield, Bucks: Pandemic-driven demand for larger homes, average price £1.17m.


4. Chorleywood, Herts: A village offering rural living with easy access to London, £1.1m average price.


5. Amersham, Bucks: Thriving market town with countryside appeal, £717,100 average price.



4. Other Notable Areas

Gerrards Cross (Bucks) and Berkhamsted (Herts) are popular commuter towns.

Hale (Trafford) and Altrincham (Greater Manchester) are standout northern entries, with thriving high streets and great schools.


5. Conclusion

These towns represent affluent areas with a high quality of life, appealing to families due to strong schools, desirable housing stock, and proximity to major cities.

Would you like more detailed information on any specific town from the list?

DETAIL

Would you like more detailed information on any specific town from the list?

Available on request - leave request for specific information or the entire article in the comments space.



Saturday, 14 September 2024

THE FOUNTAINHEAD BY AYN RAND

14 September 2024


Seems like we are on the brink of war. Not that you'd know from the MSM. Misinformation and pressure to conform dominate.

Hopefully reason will prevail (forlorn hope).

Unfortunately, seems the West would lose and morally imo deservedly so.

So anyway it was with great interest that I read The Fountainhead in summary the first thing to say is that it's from 1943, written in the midst of world war by a Russian born American writer. 

It's a work of philosophy and fiction. 

It has not aged a bit, on the contrary as we've got more and more individualistic, the book has gained a bigger and bigger following.

The central character is Howard Roark, an individualistic and innovative architect. It explores typical arty pre-occupations of creativity, integrity, but adds in a struggle between individualism and collectivism which is fascinating because we in the West are going through that transition, losing our freedom and being ground down in the mass society that was just starting out when this book was written.

Roark, the hero, is a guy with a vision and principles, he won't compromise his artistic integrity in spite of pressure to conform to conventional norms.

I've done a couple of Blog posts on books around this theme of pressure to conform - one is the psychology of crowds a book from 1925, other is Jacques Ellul on propaganda from 1962. And I'm going to do The Manufacture of Consent from 1988. 

Holding contrarian views bordering on the dissident at times, wrt this war in Ukraine and Palestine, means fighting off the nonsense they feed us in the MSM.

Anyway, here is this creative genius driven by the desire to design buildings that reflect his own ideas, rather than pandering to popular tastes or government diktat. 

After the 1917 revolution, the Soviet government sought to reshape society, including how people lived, in alignment with socialist ideals. Pre WW2 public housing architecture was strongly influenced by these new political and social ambitions.

Kommunalka

I will here digress on this Soviet idea of communal living aka Kommunalka.

Kommunalka means communal apartment. These were large, formerly private apartments that were subdivided to house multiple families, HMOs we'd call them except Kommunalka had shared kitchens, bathrooms, and hallways. The kommunalka was seen as a way to break down class distinctions and promote socialist ideals by encouraging collective living. This form of housing aimed to create a communal lifestyle - privacy was minimal reflecting the government's goal of fostering collective identity and equality.

If you think that was bad, bear in mind that Rand was writing 20 years before the start of mass council housing build in the UK.

Ayn Rand

Philosophy

 (Alissa Zinovievna Rosenbaumis) is an Objectivist, it's her own school of thought. She was a Russian-born American (1905–1982) So she grew up in the formative years of communism in the Soviet Union. She promotes the idea that "reality exists independently of consciousness, that individual rights and rational self-interest are paramount, and that the pursuit of personal happiness is the moral purpose of life". 

Ie the real world is real and not something cooked up by propagandists, we are individuals entitled to freedom and have individual rights (this is before the "invention" of human rights after the last war), we should stay rational in our dealings with the real world and not allow ourselves to be swamped by pressures to conform, God is dead and it's up to us to find our own values and purpose and way in life, and so we should keep our sense of individual responsibility and not succumb to collective, lemming-like mentalities, attitudes or phobias. 

So, rational self interest and integrity and strength of ego. All very inspiring in today's stressed-out, war-torn, group-think, Western world.

Conclusion

Gorky Park

Ayn Rand was not an architect, anymore than author Martin Cruz Smith was a Russian spy. While she wrote The Fountainhead and made its central character Howard Roark an architect, Rand herself did not have formal training or a career in architecture. 

But what she did do as an author was to conduct extensive research on the field, including studying architecture and speaking with professionals, in order to create a realistic and informed portrayal of Roark’s profession.

Ayn Rand was not a dissident in the traditional sense, but she was highly critical of the Soviet regime and its ideology. Born in Russia in 1905 as Alisa Zinovyevna Rosenbaum, she experienced the Russian Revolution and the rise of Communism first-hand. She actually witnessed the confiscation of her family’s business and the widespread repression of individual rights (now "human rights") under the Soviet system. It is clear that her strong views were the result of this experience and translated into her philosophical views and writings.

Rand emigrated to the United States in 1926 at the age of 21 and became an outspoken critic of collectivism, communism, and the Soviet Union. Her works, especially The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged, promote individualism and capitalism, in contrast to the then collectivist ideals of the Soviet regime (Russia is a different place today and the subject of another post on this blog). As we've seen, Rand used architecture as a metaphor for individualism, creativity, and integrity, themes that are central to her philosophy of Objectivism. Roark's character represents her ideal of a person who remains true to their own vision and principles, even in the face of societal and government pressure.