PEACE AND PROSPERITY IN EUROPE

28 November 2024

Summary:

A recent conversation between Glenn Diesen, Jeffrey Sachs and Alexander Mercouris examined the political changes unfolding in Europe. 

The initial optimism surrounding the European project, as a region dedicated to peace and prosperity, has significantly diminished. The original objectives were to resolve continental conflicts peacefully and to use collective bargaining power to achieve greater economic and political independence. Peace from an EU that would "keep the Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down". Prosperity from unleashing and coordinating the powerful economies of Europe.

However, things have not worked out for Europe. It is currently facing several critical challenges:

War and De-industrialization: Ongoing conflicts and a decline in industrial activity have destabilised the region.

Socio-economic and Political Instability: There is increasing unrest and uncertainty within European societies and governments.

Excessive Dependence on the United States: Europe's reliance on the U.S. has grown, impacting its autonomy.

Diminishing Global Relevance: Europe is becoming less influential on the world stage.

Key Points:

Failure to Adapt to Multipolarity: This is the starting point to any understanding and resolution. While the rest of the world adjusts to an emerging multipolar global order by diversifying economic connections and adopting "multivector" foreign policies, Europe has not succeeded here. It has clung to bloc thinking.

Subordination to U.S. Interests: it has in effect been vassalised within the American Empire. European nations have subordinated themselves to the U.S., meaning loss of sovereignty or decision making power, leading to economic decline and political subordination. This has had knock on consequences in terms of an electorate that can see. Its representatives turn to america before turning to national needs, and a leadership that because its power has been so limited has only succeeded in recruiting politicians of mediocre ability.

Declining Rationality in Policy Decisions: European policies towards Russia have been counterproductive, knowingly placing the continent on a collision course with Russia.

Increased Security Dependence: The proxy war with Russia has heightened Europe's security reliance on the U.S., allowing Washington to impose bloc discipline.

Proposed Steps for Reversing the Decline

Reversing Militarisation: Europe needs to de-escalate military tensions and dismantle the militarisation of dividing lines within the continent.

Diversifying Economic Ties: To avoid over-dependence on any single state or region, Europe like any sovereign entity needs to diversify its economic relationships - this is the way to build national character, enhance competitiveness and increase political autonomy.

Regaining Political Independence: By reducing excessive reliance on the U.S., Europe can reclaim its sovereignty and rationality in policymaking.

Conclusion:

The Youtube conversation highlights a critical need for Europe to reassess its current trajectory. By adopting a 2040 Vision, with strategies, policies and programs that embrace multipolarity, diversify economic partnerships, and restore political autonomy, Europe could reverse its decline and in time regain lost sovereignty over its affairs and re-establish itself as a region of peace and prosperity.

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CAN GERMANY RISE AGAIN AND FREE EUROPE FROM THE AMERICAN EMPIRE

26 February 2024

Europe as a whole would have quite a lot to fear from a militarily resurgent Germany and yet how else can we build European independence?

This is about geopolitics, supply chains and innovation.

We need a NATO without America that shares the decisional and planning.

We need an industrial infrastructure that spreads out production so no home-industry could take over.

And we need a concerted innovation to produce better armements than America - if lil' old Russia can do it, why not big old western Europe ... preferable WITH Russia.

So this is what a 20-year strategy for achieving the goal of an independ Europe could look like. It's about organisation (E-NATO), planning (devolved) and production (rewired supply chains), with the gearing set by tremendous innovation (R&D, AI).

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WAR IN EUROPE OR A NEW SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

11 July 2023

Finland and Sweden joining NATO is good news for investors in American arms manufacturers and NATO, bad news for Finland and Sweden's taxpayers, and otherwise seems to be unnecessary unless you think Russia is planning to zip up its Western frontier this side of Eastern Europe ie back to pre 1991.

Doubtless the Americans helped along the collapse of the Soviet Union in many ways, not least by promising Gorbachez and Yeltsin it would not expand NATO "one inch East". But the Soviet Union was destined to collapse from the get-go as those in the Politburo truly and sincerely believed in Communism - collective ownership by the state and a fully planned economy - was the next step in human evolution. It wasn't and the Soviet Union collapsed under the weight of its own inefficiencies and attempt to reshape human nature.

Does Putin nonetheless want to recreate the empire of the Czar or the Soviet Union? My reading is that he is not interested in taking control of the fringe former Soviet states but rather he is interested in securing Russia's Western borders against further Western attack by neutralising in some way those countries where NATO wants to, or has, lodged its nuclear weapons.

Some of Putin's utterances that may help us understand his mind:

"We have every reason to assume that the infamous policy of containment, conducted in the 18th, 19th and 20th Centuries, continues today. They are constantly trying to sweep us into a corner because we have an independent position"

"If you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard. You must always remember this."

“The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

“Anyone who doesn’t regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains.”

This makes him a nationalist in the geographic sense of the Russian Federation, although he supports Russian ethnic minorities living outside Russia, in former Novorossiya for instance.

Personally, I am a realist who believes that the peace is kept by a balance of power; and thus someone who thinks that peace and security in Europe can be obtained by our negotiating a fresh security architecture with Russia, for Europe, rather than conducting a war which the West unfortunately cannot win. 

Defeat of the West in Ukraine was - and still is for many - once unimaginable, in spite of all the historic precedents from Vietnam onwards. This is because Nationalism, or the fight for survival, is the strongest force in politics. Should either side have to face defeat, ie its very existence or world primacy is threatened, there would be consequences that today for most people are unimaginable.

We in the West can either accept that risk of nuclear war, or we can refuse to take that risk and instead step back and negotiate a new security architecture. The benefits that would flow to Europe and Eurasia in almost all domains of human endeavour would be absolutely immense.

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EVERYDAY THE WEST LOSES MORE GROUND

I guess you'll have read that Sweden has agreed to send its poor bloody Kurdish refugees to Turkey for presumably torture and execution, in the order that Turkey can lift its veto on their joining NATO. Predictable.

And after America went trying to drag Iran and Argentina out of purdah in order to take their oil, they have effectively as I understand it told him to F off and are applying to join the club of BRICS.

Every day the west loses more ground.

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EVERY DAY THE WEST LOSES MORE GROUND. DECOMPOSING FRENCH MACARONI

29 June 2022

Have you seen those pictures of Emmanuel Macron running after Joe Biden like a schoolboy and pulling at his sleeve?

Since doing so very badly in the legislative macron has lost a great deal of kudos in the country. it has come to be realised that he was always trying to do things and always restarting his initiatives and talking but without getting results. It's pretty easy to criticise Macron, but are Johnson and Scholtz doing any better? I don't think so I just wish that there was a plan for Europe to "take back control" and kick out the Americans.

I do follow affairs in France, which may be of less interest to you, but here's a few shared subjects I noticed: the heads of commonwealth meeting held in Rwanda -  Rwanda is french-speaking, from its days as a colony of Belgium - Johnson chose the meeting there to show off his French and humiliate Macron? 

And also at that same meeting, they welcomed two new members, both former French Protectorates: Togo and Gabon (ex Senegal, Senegambia). 

And then there was Mali where a few months back, the French army was replaced by Wagner, a humiliation by a bunch of gangsters that seize power in a coup.

Macron, big big problems right at the start of his 5-year term, lame duck president already, not good for Europe. He was supposed to be making a special push into Africa and yet these four countries that were in Frances backyard I have now switched to Anglo-Saxon. 

We are witnessing decomposing French macaroni.

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EUROPEAN STRATEGIC COMPASS

8 April 2022

WIP Here is a negative review of a positive development

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/04/06/ultra-remainers-mobilising-prepare-ground-rejoining-eu/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/european-union-unveils-new-strategy-become-global-power

"European Union Unveils New Strategy to Become a Global Power

by Soeren Kern • April 3, 2022 at 5:00 am

The goal is "strategic autonomy" — the ability for the EU to act independently of, and as a counterweight to, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — in matters of defense and security.

The key component of the Strategic Compass is the development of a so-called EU Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC), a military force able to intervene in "non-permissive environments" anywhere in the world.

The RDC is to become fully operational by 2025 and commanded by an institution called the "EU Military Planning and Conduct Capability." (The term "capability" is a politically correct substitute for "headquarters," as in "military headquarters.")

The push for Europe to achieve strategic autonomy from the United States is being spearheaded by Macron, who, as part of his reelection campaign, apparently hopes to replace former German Chancellor Angela Merkel as the de facto leader of Europe.

The danger is that many of the pie-in-the-sky policy proposals in the Strategic Compass will divert and drain resources and finances from where they are actually needed: NATO.

A logical course of action would be for EU member states to honor past pledges to increase defense spending as part of their contribution to the transatlantic alliance. That, however, would fly in the face of the folie de grandeur — the delusions of grandeur — of European federalists who dream of transforming the EU into a geopolitical "great power." "

Gate stone Institute April 3rd

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A NEW EUROPE

This guy has seen politicians come and go and must have had difficulty framing politicians typical short-term thinking in a bit of historical perspective.

Putin has got as far as he's going to get - we just need to tidy it up into a Minsk-3 and sweep some stuff back under the carpet.

But the Americans block everything with their aggressive warmongering. We, on the other hand, do not need to be America's draft animals.

China and America are both dying embers. But not Europe. The UK could link up Russia's near abroad, talk nicely to Putin, and create a proto-European confederation, that would work on bottom-up democracy (cf EU dictatorship) and could modernise Russia in exchange for sharing its natural riches.

That would solve so many problems and realise so many dreams for everyone. Not least a post brexit UK with a global voice.

I agree it is a tall order, but it is a direction.

Otherwise, we remain america's chorus girl -that describes Blair and Johnson - castrated by America and docile cheerleaders of America's interests. But not ours.

Our interests are for a strong Europe. America is in decline, China will never make it as its demographics mean th quite soon the majority of Chinese will be over 65.

That leaves Europe....but we are far from ready ... we don't have a clue.

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