10 June 2024
1. Summary of EU Election Results
The recent EU elections have resulted in significant shifts within the European Parliament:
- Far-right Gains: The far-right National Rally in France, led by Jordan Bardella, achieved a historic victory with 31.5% of the vote, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call for fresh legislative elections.
- Centre-right Dominance in Germany: The CDU/CSU emerged as the leading party in Germany, benefiting from the weaknesses of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition.
- Overall Shift to the Right: Across Europe, right-wing parties made substantial gains, continuing the trend observed in previous elections.
2. Economic and International Policies
a) Economic Policies
- Fiscal Conservatism: Many right-wing parties advocate for reduced public spending and lower taxes. This approach aims to stimulate economic growth through private sector investment but might reduce social welfare programs.
- Economic Nationalism: Policies promoting local industries and limiting foreign competition are likely to be emphasised. This can involve tariffs and other trade barriers to protect domestic jobs and industries.
b) International Policies
- Tighter Immigration Controls: Right-wing gains suggest a push towards stricter immigration policies, focusing on border security and reducing the number of immigrants.
- EU Skepticism: Increased influence of Eurosceptic parties could lead to challenges in EU integration policies, with potential for more countries questioning their commitments to EU regulations and agreements.
3. Effects of New Policies
a) Economic Policies on Europe's Economy
- Growth vs. Social Stability: While tax cuts and reduced public spending could boost economic growth, they may also widen economic inequalities and reduce funding for public services. This can lead to social unrest, especially in economically weaker member states.
- Trade Relations: Protectionist measures might protect local industries but can provoke retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, potentially leading to trade wars that could harm European exports.
b) Foreign Policy Attitudes on Relations with America
- Strained Transatlantic Relations: More nationalist and protectionist policies in Europe could lead to tensions with the United States, especially if trade barriers are erected. This could impact NATO cooperation and other strategic alliances.
- Diplomatic Shifts: Eurosceptic and nationalist parties may seek to reduce reliance on the US, possibly fostering closer ties and more conciliatory attitudes towards other global powers in particular China or Russia, shifting the geopolitical balance away from America and towards greater European independence.
Conclusion
The recent EU election results indicate a significant shift towards the right, with implications for both economic and international policies. The adoption of conservative fiscal policies and more nationalist stances could lead to economic growth but also potential social unrest and strained international relations, particularly with the United States. These developments will need careful management to maintain stability within the EU and its global partnerships.
Further Reading
