29 August 2022
The "unprovoked invasion" is being revealed as one scenario anticipated by western planners of this conflict, when Kiev stepped up its bombing of its Donbas back in 2021 and then intensified further in January and early February 22,
With Russian acquiesence to Ukraine's joining NATO, or an outright proxy war with Russia as the two possible results; defeat for Putin and his replacement by a western sympathiser was expected in either case.
(who would also incidentally - this is my guessing so probably seems madly misjudged - give access to China from the North, completing China's encirclement ... this bit is my guessing, but it makes sense if you see China as the major threat to American hegemony).
But things didn't turn out that way, alas. The utter disaster for the West is lapping, the tsunami is on its way, we are heading into a multi-polar world, perhaps a world in two camps, the global North, the global South.
For example, the West is choosing recession over inflation - this choice is the result of years of outspending your income and topping up from the printing presses, but this war has brought the forces of decline to a head.
The political leaderships cling to their original assumptions. While the technical advisors - military leaders, economists and central bank officials, and also I'd guess foreign office officials responsible planning the war but also for soft power - these domain advisors have the data picture and the assessments that flow logically and objectively from this data, but the politicians do not update their assessments and plans : the Western leaders still want to weaken Russia and presumably still believe they can overturn the Putin govt. What is blocking the thinking of our leaderships?
UK's Conservative party has a great opportunity to choose a peace negotiator, but instead is choosing another war monger!
The court of public opinion suffering from the sanctions will sooner or later see through the stupidity and injustice of their Western governments and in a democracy should unblock the leadership and rod through the new realities.
It does look like a far far greater humiliation for the West is on the way than were even the humiliations of Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
If you're looking for peace, justice and stability, and longer term prosperity, then surely you would update your vision and aims and methods, from the data your technical advisors are presenting to you, and choose compromise and co-operation as more economical, more efficient and more effective in advancing "the public interest"?
Imho, it is the role of Europe through the international institutions to explain this to America. If America wants to keep its position in the world, it needs to change its mentality.
Too commonsensical? Too much to expect? Then America, strategic danger to the planet, press on with the war, to your ultimate destruction.
The worry is that America will take the planet with it.
