26 July 2022
Mercurius is right when he says (https://youtu.be/V9dS-eb7qmI) that all the warning lights are flashing in Europe (collapse of the Euro...see next post), in Ukraine likely to be the most disastrous of all American foreign policy Adventures), the American economy (( the impossible choice between deep and long recession and hyperinflation and destruction of the currency) and why on earth would America want to start a new conflagration with China?
From the history book, in 1971 ambassador George Bush proposed dual recognition of Taiwan and the PRC as a way to keep Taiwan in the UN but both sides rejected this. Even so, Nixon in his 1972 "week that changed the world" visit to China and meeting with Mao Zedong, kept up recognition of Taiwan. Nixon was a strong anti-communist and the purpose of that visit was to pull China away from Russia. Nixon was then swamped with Watergate.
It was Jimmy Carter - not known as America's strongest president - who in 1979 dropped Taiwan and recognised China as the sole representative of the Chinese people. ...without any good reason as what could China have done then, as now, other than grumble?
The next American initiative was when Clinton welcomed Deng Xiaoping to America in 1979. Surprising to us today, the main or the most important outcome of that visit was Deng's warning to America (sic) that it, that Carter, should not appease Russia, or seek not to offend Russia, because this would just encourage Russia's world hegemonic ambitions.
This opened both countries to closer trade relations and led to get China's admission to the World Trade Organisation in September 2001 after 15 years of negotiations. The economic growth that came from China selling into America middle-class resulted in its position today as as the world's second largest economy by GDP.
But should we be seeing the subject of pelosi's visit to China as America calling China's bluff and how this flouts the first rule of diplomacy vis-a-vis to China - your bluff will always be called by the Chinese? Because maybe it's more about America ending its policy of "strategic ambiguity" (where relations between countries and Taiwan continue, though not officially; and an official future status of Taiwan is never discussed) and acting independently and on its own initiative.
Given the rising level of threat, America doesnt want to be seen simply reacting to Beijing, as though Beijing determines American foreign policy.
Inaddition, Taiwan is important to America, not just for its advanced microchip factories, but as a longtime ally, with Japan and South Korea, in East Asia and thus to Americas containment policy towards China.
As remarked by John J Mearsheimer, America will not accept any competition or constraints or threats of any kind in any region of the world.. not even from the Solomon Islands.
So this trip is more about America's "splendid isolation", which could actually qualify as a peace role!!!
Yes, America sailing a frigate through the Taiwan Straits and now sending the house speaker to a supposedly neutral country is provocative. As is China threatening the security of the American speaker of the house. And obviously America is not going to let Chinese ultimatums decide its policy or Freedom of manoeuvre.
Getting serious for a moment, can you imagine America's reaction if Pelosi's plane were shot down or even if it were prevented from entering Taiwanese airspace? So what can China do and given hostilities between America and china it would not be surprising if this president recognised Taiwan.
There are plenty of good reasons to co-operate with China, from climate change to trade, but these are all shared benefits.
I read that there is a 1933 Montevideo Convention which establishes the conditions for "statehood," : defined territory, stable population, functioning government, and some independence over foreign policy. Taiwan meets them all. Plus the popular vote in Taiwan is for independence and there is no one unless sent by the PRC in Taiwan supporting reunification.
So what is holding America back from recognising Taiwan if it isn't Beijing opposition?
