Friday, 21 March 2025

THE ART OF THE DEAL. DO TRUMP'S BUSINESS TACTICS APPLY WHEN TRYING TO REACH A GEOPOLITICAL SETTLEMENT

21 March 2025


1. Top Ten Tactics in Business Negotiations
These are classic tactics used by the stronger side to control the negotiation process and steer it toward a favourable outcome:

1.1 Anchoring High

Open with an ambitious position to define the frame.

Forces the weaker side to negotiate downward from your terms.

In geopolitics: e.g. “End the Fighting - The Must be an Immediate Ceasefire.”, "There must be a Territorial Status Quo - No Further Advances can be Tolerated", "Keep Ukraine out of NATO and Limit its Military", "Sign This Minerals Deal / Hand Over Your Power Stations and The US will Protect You".

1.2 Minimise Objections ("These Are Just Details")

Dismiss key concerns as minor technicalities.

Builds urgency and downplays complexity.

Trump often uses this: "We’ll get it done—no problem."

1.3 Project Confidence and Optimism
Assumes the deal is inevitable and success is certain.

Psychological pressure on the other side to not be the one who “derails” progress.

1.4 Control the Agenda and the Timeline

Set the pace and structure of talks.

Speed does benefit the better-prepared party.

Trump may say, “We want a deal in 30 days—let’s get it done.”

1.5 Divide and Conquer

Split up the other side’s internal factions.

Exploit differences between allies or interest groups.

Classic in geopolitical deals: e.g. Trump has used NATO divisions to push the idea that some states (like Germany) aren’t paying their share, creating splits over how to respond to Russia.

1.6 Use of “Carrots” and “Sticks”

Offer incentives, but also threaten consequences.

“Agree now and sanctions ease. Refuse, and we double down.”

Except Trump doesn't have any sticks, and there is little that Russia wants from him other than an enduring peace settlement.


1.7 Create a Sense of Scarcity or a ‘Last Chance’

Pressure to agree by suggesting the deal window is closing.

“This is your only chance for peace—don’t miss it.”

1.8 Control the Narrative/Public Perception

Shape media and diplomatic messaging.

Make refusal seem unreasonable or dangerous.

Trump might leak to media: “Russia's refusal proves they don’t want peace.”

1.9 Framing Concessions as Generous Compromise

Position minimal concessions as major goodwill.

Pressures the other side to “match” your “generosity.”

Eg the pause in attacks on each other's energy infrastructure is actually no concession at all.

1.10 Repetition and Consistency

Repeat key messages until they become accepted truths.

“Ukraine needs peace. We are offering peace. Russia refuses peace.”

2. Limits of Business Tactics in Geopolitical Negotiations

2.1 National Interests Are Non-Negotiable

In business, everything has a price.

In geopolitics, some things don’t: borders, sovereignty, ideology. This is a really hard one for the West to understand.

2.2 Domestic Political Constraints

Leaders must answer to parliaments, factions, voters - not to shareholders.

A deal that looks good on paper can be rejected by political realities.

2.3 Security and Trust

States deal in security dilemmas and have long memories affecting Trust.

Russia remembers every broken promise, from 1990s NATO "not one inch East", to 2008 Budapest "Ukraine and Georgia will join NATO", to 2015 Minsk I and II, to March 2022 Istanbul, to the Belgorod incursion on the eve of this ceasefire ; Ukraine remembers Crimea.

2.4 Face and Prestige Matter

Saving face, especially for strong leaders, is vital.

Business negotiators can walk away quietl - countries cannot.

2.5 Multilateral Complexity

Geopolitical deals often involve coalitions, not just two parties.

Business logic can fall apart in a cats cradle of conflicting interests.

3. Conclusion: Trump’s Style – Business vs Statecraft

Trump’s negotiating style—high pressure, optimistic framing, ‘art of the deal’ - works well in real estate.

But geopolitics is not a Manhattan property deal. The other side may prefer ruin to humiliation.

Business tactics help, but must be embedded within diplomatic conflict resolution, realism that recognises that some goals are non-negotiable, and the art of the geopolitical deal especially requires an understanding of historical grievance.

[End]

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