HAS THE WORLD CHANGED SINCE 24 FEBRUARY 2022

6 February 2025

The Decline of the West,

by Oswald Spengler

SUMMARY

It might seem obvious, but it’s worth stating clearly: we’re entering—indeed, we’ve already entered—a completely new world. Consider the following points:

1. Western Preeminence Diminishing

Since 1492, the West has dominated the globe. After five centuries of unrivalled influence, that preeminence is now fading.

2. Conflict Returns to Europe

Europe is no longer at peace. We’re witnessing a renewed era of nations fighting within Europe—an upheaval few foresaw.

3. Superpower Confrontations

For the past 80 years, there has been no direct military confrontation between superpowers. Yet today, America is at war with Russia and seemingly heading toward conflict with China.

4. Cultural and Value Systems in Flux

Setting aside DEI as a possible short-lived phenomenon, we see our traditional Greco-Roman, Judeo-Christian, and Enlightenment heritage—emphasising individual rights, secular governance, and the rule of law—challenged by Islamic values, which are just as diverse and equally valid but derived from the Qur’an and Hadith, focusing on community, religious morality, and social justice.

5. Shifting Atlantic Alliance

For 80 years, Europe and America stood as equal partners in an Atlantic alliance. Now, Europe increasingly feels like a vassal to an American empire, reliant on a waning NATO umbrella. The bitter, decades-long (potentially centuries-long) rift with Russia leaves Europe dealing with a “cesspool” in Ukraine right on its doorstep.

6. Russia’s Pivot to Asia

Historically an Asiatic power that aspired to join Europe since the 18th century—echoed in Helsinki 1975, Gorbachev’s “common European home,” and Putin’s early attempts to partner with NATO and the EU—Russia now finds itself pushed out of Europe. Through what many see as the West’s own shortsightedness, Russia, with its abundant energy, food, and mineral resources, is driven into the arms of China, a formidable rival to the West. Where Russia might have become an enduring friend and economic partner, it is instead cast as an adversary.

7. Rise of Multipolar Power

It’s not that the West has simply lost power; rather, the rest of the world—once colonised or overshadowed—has caught up. Now we no longer hold a singularly dominant position; power is dispersed among many centres. Exploring how this came about and where it leads us is another grand story worth telling.

DETAIL

It might feel pretty obvious, but it still needs to be said and understood that we are entering - and are already in - a completely new world. Just consider the following.

The most obvious and topical is that the West has dominated the planet since 1492, but is now losing its preeminence after five hundred years.

Another enormous change is that we are now fighting each other in Europe, Europe is no longer at peace.

Furthermore, there have been 80 years with no military confrontation between superpowers, but now we have America at war with Russia and seeking conflict with China.

As to internal social cohesion and putting aside DEI which looks to be a passing phenomenon with the return to merit-based equality, our values drawn from Greek, Roman, Judeo-Christian, and Enlightenment legacies, promoting individual rights, secular governance, and the rule of law, are being challenged by Islamic values, similarly diverse, equally valid but different, originating from the Qur’an and Hadith, emphasising community, religious morality, and social justice.

Another big change. We've enjoyed 80 years of the Atlantic Alliance, but as where this started off with Europe and America as equal partners, we now feel we are vassals of an American empire and that the NATO umbrella and America's interest in Europe is on the wane, leaving us with a bitter relationship with Russia that will endure decades, and maybe centuries, huge economic consequences and the cesspool that is Ukraine bubbling away in our midst.

Another massive change is that Russia, which is an Asiatic power who wanted to belong to Europe since the 18th century and going right up to a Helsinki, 1975 and Gorbachev's "common European home", and Putin, who initially wanted Russia to join NATO and the EU but was rebuffed, has now, with its abundant supplies of energy, food and minerals, and entirely through the West's fault, been driven out of Europe and into the arms of China, a very serious competitor to the West, which includes Europe of course. Russia is now our adversary and our enemy, where once it could have been an eternal friend and economic partner. Instead of shutting down NATO after the cold war, it, NATO, found a new role, under american leadership, re badging the former pawns of the Soviet empire.

In sum, it's not so much that the West has lost its power, but more that the rest of the world that we colonised has caught up with us and is overtaking us, so that where once we were the pre-eminent power, there are now many centres of power.... How that came about and where the world is going is another great story worth the telling.