THE PERILS OF ESCALATION WITH RUSSIA

15 January 2025

The Perils of Escalation with Russia

https://youtu.be/rq4J8kXvWfA?si=z-IKsxUcRkTWdXAg

The article warns of the risks of continued Western escalation in the Ukraine conflict, highlighting the potential consequences of misinterpreting Russia's threats and capabilities.

1. Escalation Misconceptions:

The West’s pattern of dismissing Russia’s deterrent threats has led to complacency, with many viewing Putin’s nuclear rhetoric as mere bluff.

However, escalation dynamics are unpredictable and non-linear, with deferred pressures potentially leading Russia to act decisively in the future.

2. Conventional and Nuclear Risks:

Russia’s development of advanced weapons like the "Oreshnik" hypersonic missile allows for powerful, calibrated responses without resorting to nuclear weapons.

While nuclear use remains unlikely, tactical deployment is not impossible and poses significant risks.

3. Russia’s Growing Military Strength:

Contrary to expectations, Western support has prolonged the war, allowing Russia to transform its latent power into tangible military capability.

Russia’s efficient production of artillery, access to critical resources, and partnerships with allies like China and Iran have bolstered its war-making capacity.

4. Ukraine’s Weakening Position:

Ukraine faces critical manpower shortages and strained resources, making institutional breakdown or capitulation more likely over time.

Russia’s resolve, driven by perceived NATO threats to its security, remains stronger than Western assumptions of imperial ambition.

5. Western Strategy Flaws:

The West lacks "escalation dominance" over Russia, undermining efforts to coerce Moscow into favorable negotiations.

Current strategies risk backfiring, further eroding Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

6. A Call for Policy Shift:

The article advocates abandoning attempts to negotiate from a position of unattainable strength.

It suggests that accommodation with Russia, though unpalatable, is the most practical and moral path to ending the war.

Prolonging escalation will only worsen Ukraine’s plight and force the West to confront harsher terms later.