UKRAINE UPDATE JAN 2025

16 January 2025

NATO was set up to secure Europe from Russia and Germany. Has it fulfilled its mission? Not really. NATO provoked this war by breaking its not-one-inch-east promise at the end of the cold war. NATO rejected Russia’s reasonable security concerns, welched on Minsk, sabotaged Istanbul, and for three years refused to talk to Russia. In 2008 it promised that Ukraine would join NATO and in 2014, NATO supported the coup in Kiev, despite strong advice that this would lead to war.

As to Ukrainians themselves, most did not support NATO membership in 2014. At the time of the coup, only 20% of Ukrainians supported NATO membership, so NATO’s actions lacked democratic support in Ukraine and were not wanted.

NATO made no attempt at finding a peaceful settlement to its conflict. Minsk was not implemented, Istanbul was sabotaged, offers of talks were ignored, RAND was commisioned to offer detailedadvice on how to weaken Russia, western publics were brainwashed with russophobic propaganda.

NATO failed to defeat Russia on the battlefield, sanctions failed to collapse the Russian economy, and diplomacy failed to isolate Russia.

As to global alliances and restructuring, Russia has strengthened its alignment with China and shifted its economic focus towards the East, we now have BRICS+ whose purposes include protection from a bullying West.

The biggest losers from this war are the people of Ukraine who've endured the greatest suffering, suffered the heaviest casualties and seen their country devastated.

But Europe is not far behind. It too has faced significant defeats - loss of security, economy wrecked, political overthrow by the populists, reduced to geopolitical irrelevance.

Long-term, NATO’s (America's, for the globalist neocons bear unique responsibility for The Defeat of the West)  approach has entrenched an East-West divide that will endure for decades, Russia has turned away from Europe and the West and towards Asia and the East.

Bibliography

https://youtube.com/shorts/zozFJVU4Thc?si=s3Hs5tSonAqJwhjM

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THE PERILS OF ESCALATION WITH RUSSIA

15 January 2025

The Perils of Escalation with Russia

https://youtu.be/rq4J8kXvWfA?si=z-IKsxUcRkTWdXAg

The article warns of the risks of continued Western escalation in the Ukraine conflict, highlighting the potential consequences of misinterpreting Russia's threats and capabilities.

1. Escalation Misconceptions:

The West’s pattern of dismissing Russia’s deterrent threats has led to complacency, with many viewing Putin’s nuclear rhetoric as mere bluff.

However, escalation dynamics are unpredictable and non-linear, with deferred pressures potentially leading Russia to act decisively in the future.

2. Conventional and Nuclear Risks:

Russia’s development of advanced weapons like the "Oreshnik" hypersonic missile allows for powerful, calibrated responses without resorting to nuclear weapons.

While nuclear use remains unlikely, tactical deployment is not impossible and poses significant risks.

3. Russia’s Growing Military Strength:

Contrary to expectations, Western support has prolonged the war, allowing Russia to transform its latent power into tangible military capability.

Russia’s efficient production of artillery, access to critical resources, and partnerships with allies like China and Iran have bolstered its war-making capacity.

4. Ukraine’s Weakening Position:

Ukraine faces critical manpower shortages and strained resources, making institutional breakdown or capitulation more likely over time.

Russia’s resolve, driven by perceived NATO threats to its security, remains stronger than Western assumptions of imperial ambition.

5. Western Strategy Flaws:

The West lacks "escalation dominance" over Russia, undermining efforts to coerce Moscow into favorable negotiations.

Current strategies risk backfiring, further eroding Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

6. A Call for Policy Shift:

The article advocates abandoning attempts to negotiate from a position of unattainable strength.

It suggests that accommodation with Russia, though unpalatable, is the most practical and moral path to ending the war.

Prolonging escalation will only worsen Ukraine’s plight and force the West to confront harsher terms later.

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