EUROPE NEEDS ITS OWN COLOUR REVOLUTION

22 December 2024

Worst case for Europe is economic collapse, best is military defeat in Ukraine.

But that would change if a security architecture were negotiated with Russia.

That needs a position of strength. Meaning balance of power. Which requires a European arms industry. To be free of America requires 20 years of peaceful co-existence with Russia. During that 20 years, while Europe transitions to a bigger shell, Europe is vulnerable to Russian and American bullying.

It is quite a dilemma! Agreeing to no NATO in Ukraine, regime change and territorial concessions would be humiliating to the existing elite....but defeat on the battlefield is worse as on top of a resoundingly humiliating defeat, they'd also lose all possibility of shaping the defeat.

To me, the West is near the end of its rope. A smart and cunning Europe would switch sides, block America and start working with Russia and China too.

We don't have such clever manipulators, only technocrats, administrators of the empire running things in their provincial outposts in Britain, France, Germany...

We need our own colour revolution. Oust the current regimes, make the people see what is going on. 

We need our own colour revolution. We need to oust the current regimes in our countries in Europe.

We need to negotiate with Russia, negotiate a shared future.

This sounds delusional, right. It could never happen.

But could the West win in Ukraine? And go on to defeat China? Pay off its debt and reverse its decline? That sounds even more delusional.

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France has just been dropped to double AA by SnP and Fitches with Moodys to follow, and if it goes into single A, likeky in the near-term, the investment funds will not, by their mandate, be able to buy France's debt.

Next year it has 320b€ to finance. Its interest rates are above Italy and Greece. The ECB will buy its debt to hold down interest rates, Germany permitting. A third of government expenses are operating expenses. Taxes takes 55% of GDP. We saw Argentina. We've just seen Brazil.

Leading economists in France seriously argue that the only way to manage public debt is to raise taxes. 

So if this continues, peace to Bayrou new PM, the colour revolution in France is likely to be started by the middle classes.

So in summary, how to bring peace and prosperity back to Europe? It will take a colour revolution by the middle classes.

Our leaders were selected for their abilities to make jolly good provincial governors.

From history, we know The West has had its day. It's got plenty of time to decline in, if it made some reforms it could prolong its departure.

But we can be totally sure that in France if they try raising taxes, the middle class will take to the streets. Already, those with money or spirit are fleeing. Many set up in tech areas of the States.

The alternative is to continue down the road to being a colony, with all the governance, economic, structural, and so on problems that follow. It's not sure that many people appreciate what it means to be a colony of a bigger power. We live it everyday, but can we step back and see what's happening to Europe in context?