Sunday, 20 October 2024

THE FUTURE UNDER TRUMP

20 October 2024

The day of the Donald - how America ducked oblivion

Europe

Sean Foo in his prog this week, states the blimmin obvious: the only way europe can survive is if it turns back on the nordstream pipelines.

He goes on to say, rather optimistically, that this would have as a consequence a rise in the energy costs for china and thus bring european goods, relatively speaking, into a more competitive position.

Hmmmmm ... first of all, try persuading russia to undo all its re-architecturing, and in the face of what must be extreme bitterness towards the EU, start re-supplying europe with cheap energy. 

I don't think so.

America

America, on the other hand, looks like under trump might concentrate on increasing the output of its manufacturing sectors, ie rebalance away from financials, which did well over twenty years of cheap money, into production of goods. 

How did China lift those hundreds of millions out of poverty? 

Nixon's 1972 visit to China re-opened diplomatic channels. Then it was under Carter in 1979 that Deng Xiaoping got agreements for economic cooperation between US and China.

The deal was that corporate america could invest in china, where labour costs were very much lower, and in return, china could sell to the american middle class. (China also insisted that foreign companies had to partner with a local and that there must be technology transfer.)

The result was that America lost its manufacturing base, gained the deplorables, switched into consumerism and financials, and lost its IP advantage 

An American recovery

And now under trump will hack the problem with massive tariffs, to encourage the outsourced to in-source back into american manufacturing, if they want to sell to the world's greatest consumer market.

So this might be the way that america retains its top spot as World No. 1 Hegemon, leaving europe and china in its wake, not in physical ruin by war this time,  but in financial ruin by tariffs. (Trump doesn't like making war, it's so bad; he prefers to ruin competitors by making deals, it's so good).

Trump, grandpa of the nation

This article takes absolutely no account of the rise of the BRICS. Doesn't look at the effects of a trump win or massive sanctions on the markets. Doesn't consider the situation where america has lost its top spot, but will not be replaced by china alone, but rather a West v. The Rest; or a more pluralistic world Order with no dominant grouping..

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