FRAME
1. Let’s take the French interpretation of liberal democracy as a guide: Liberty - Equality – Fraternity, to give us a reference frame for understanding and appraisal, why not.
2. This is a deal made from the work of economists and model-makers, so you can be sure it will never work out as planned - what might go wrong? where is the risk analysis?
3. I understand that every country should pay off its debt, live within its means and improve its productivity, but this is a purely economic model and this is a purely economic deal - this is the "Liberty" part. What about the political and social dimensions – the “Equality” and “Fraternity” parts?
PROBLEMS
1. Germany is facing a labour shortage that threatens its economic stability, particularly in industries like healthcare, engineering, and technology.
2. Kenya is a fast growing country that has yet to organise itself properly. This shows in corruption and electoral fraud, social conflict from 18% unemployment, poverty, land disputes especially in the Rift Valley best known for safari, tribalism there are 20 main tribes and massive gender inequality a warning as to the attitudes of these male migrants, but not religious conflict it seems - Kenya is 70% Protestant, 20% Catholic, 10% Muslim.
"SOLUTION"
1. The recent deal signed with Kenya allows 250,000 skilled and semi-skilled workers to migrate to Germany helping its problem of skills shortages.
2. Kenya gets employment opportunities for its youth, half the pop.n is under 25 and at least a fifth unemployed. There's a huge informal sector, estimated at a staggering 80% of the economy, hence why Germany will take unqualified IT specialists.
3. It also transfers the problem of an inadequate education system to Germany.
CRITIQUE
1. This deal is most likely the result of years of study and negotiation and I wonder in the first place whether it takes account of the reality of the much-degraded German economy today.
2. Having said that, Germany has a lot of experience from draining the talent of EU countries.
3. The bit about returning illegals is probably just a sweetener for the public.
4. Pending restructuring of its political economic and social systems, it probably suits the Kenyan leadership to bus out the most able and doubtless radical of its youth whose education is unmatched to job availability, leaving the remainder I should think to run the tourism and hospitality sector. There is "Silicone Savannah" strung out on the new Chinese-built highway between Nairobi and Mombasa, but it offer too few opportunities to the graduate class.
5. All this is technical stuff but surely the main problem is, it doesn't take account of the feelings of the German public post 2015. And nor do the models take account of the future needs of the Kenyan economy.
RADICAL ALTERNATIVE
1. Germany is grappling with an ageing population and declining birth rates, its need for foreign labour is undeniable. But without "fair trade" and without addressing the concerns of the peoples of Europe on immigration and integration, what is best for the economy according to the technocrats, might be at odds with the wishes of the people. The rise of the AfD with the possibility of an eventual day of reckoning is evidence of this gulf between elite and people.
2. A sustainable deal that is in the long-term interests of the peoples of both countries would take account of equality and justice, within and between countries (Equality), and take account of the wishes of the host population (Fraternity).
3. What Germany could do is take the unqualified but experienced in the healthcare, engineering and technology sectors, on 2 to 5 year work visas with 90-day location reporting and position chipset inserted in jugular to check you've read this far, do vocational training on them and put them into productive positions ... but then at the end of their mission return them to Kenya, no ifs no buts (as in the ME).
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