BRIEF HISTORY OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

1 September 2024

A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

1. The End of the Cold War, Initial Cooperation, The Birth of NATO Epansion (1989-1999)

- End of the Cold War: The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the end of the Cold War. This period was characterised by a brief optimism for a new era of cooperation between Russia and the West, with hopes for Russia’s integration into the global economy and security framework.

- Initial Cooperation: During the 1990s, under President Boris Yeltsin, Russia sought closer ties with the West, focusing on economic reforms and integration into global markets. The West, in turn, provided financial aid and assistance to support Russia’s transition to a market economy. Cooperation on nuclear disarmament and arms control was also significant during this time.

- NATO Expansion: However, tensions began to surface as NATO expanded eastward, incorporating former Warsaw Pact countries and even some former Soviet republics. The first idea was generated by President Clinton in 1994 and officialised in a document written by Brzezinski in 1997 for NATO expansion explicitly including Ukraine. 

Russia viewed this as a threat to its security and a violation of verbal assurances from Western leaders (notably James Baker, Secretary of State under President George H.W. Bush), "not one inch East") ie that NATO would not move eastward. This issue laid the groundwork for growing distrust between Russia and the West.

2. Growing Tensions and Russian Resurgence (2000-2014)

- Putin's Rise and Assertiveness: Vladimir Putin’s rise to power in 1999 marked a significant shift in Russian foreign policy. Putin sought to "make Russia great again", in today's parlance, ie restore order and pride after the chaos of the 1990s, to reassert Russia’s influence globally and to reverse the perceived decline of the 1990s. Under his leadership, Russia became increasingly critical of NATO’s expansion and the West’s influence in Russia’s neighbouring states.

- 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit: At the Bucharest Summit, U.S. President George W. Bush discussed the aspirations of Ukraine and Georgia to join the alliance. NATO did not extend a formal Membership Action Plan (MAP), but the summit's final declaration included a significant statement: "We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO." Angela Merkel, German Chancellor, observed that Russia would see this as a declaration of war.

Georgia War and the Rose Revolution: In 2008, Russia intervened militarily in Georgia to support the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia after Georgia attempted to reclaim these territories. The CIA and other government agencies had historically provided significant support to Georgia, especially after the Rose Revolution in 2003, which brought the pro-Western Mikheil Saakashvili to power. This support included military aid, training for Georgian forces, and intelligence-sharing, aimed at strengthening Georgia's defense forces and assisting its integration with Western institutions such as NATO. The West condemned Russia’s actions but took no direct military action.

- Ukraine and the Orange Revolution: Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution, which brought a pro-Western government to power, was another significant point of contention. Russia viewed Ukraine as a key part of its sphere of influence, part of its "near abroad", and was deeply opposed to its potential integration into NATO and the European Union.

3. The 2014 Crisis, the Minsk Accords, and Escalation (2014-2021)

- 2014 Ukrainian Revolution: In 2014, Ukraine experienced a significant political upheaval when President Viktor Yanukovych, who was pro-Russian, was ousted following mass protests. The West supported this revolution, Victoria Nuland was present on the ground and is recorded in conversation 10 days before Maidan discussing who she would like to see as the new President. Maidan was triggered by Yanukovych’s decision to reject an EU association agreement in favour of closer ties with Russia. Russia, however, identified this as a Western-backed coup that installed a government in Kyiv hostile to Russian interests.

- Annexation of Crimea: In response, Russia swiftly annexed Crimea, citing the protection of ethnic Russians and strategic interests, particularly the naval base in Sevastopol. This move was condemned by the West and led to the imposition of economic sanctions on Russia.

- War in Donbas and the Minsk Accords: Following the annexation of Crimea, pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region declared independence, leading to a conflict with the Ukrainian government. The Minsk Accords of 2014 and 2015 were negotiated to end the fighting and establish a framework for peace, including a ceasefire and political reforms in Ukraine, such as greater autonomy for the Donbas. However, this accord was not fully implemented, Angela Merkel has recently stated on the record that there was never any intention to implement Minsk and it was merely it was merely there to provide time for the West to arm Ukraine. 

- Continued Tensions: Under the new President, laws were passed to outlaw the Russian language, Kiev began shelling the Donbas and Ukraine was able to build its first army.

So despite the Minsk Accords, fighting in the Donbas persisted, with over 14,000 deaths primarily among civilians. Russia continued to support the separatists, while the West imposed further sanctions on Russia and provided limited military aid to Ukraine. 

These sanctions, however, had unintended consequences: while they were intended to weaken the Russian economy, they instead led to economic resilience in Russia, which adapted by strengthening domestic industries and forging new trade partnerships, especially with China and other non-Western countries. Meanwhile, Europe, particularly Germany, faced economic challenges, including energy shortages and rising costs, due to its reliance on Russian energy.

4. The 2022 Incursion into Ukraine

On 21 December 2021, President Putin published a framework for resolving the dispute and invited the West to negotiate the west did not respond.

- Objectives of the Russian Incursion: On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a Special Military Operation into Ukraine, citing three primary objectives:

  1. Protection of Russian Speakers in Donbas: Russia claimed it was acting to protect the Russian-speaking population in the Donbas, who, according to Moscow, had endured eight years of shelling by Ukrainian forces, resulting in 14,000 deaths. Russia portrayed this as a humanitarian intervention.

  2. Insistence on Ukrainian Neutrality: Russia demanded that Ukraine remain a neutral state, explicitly rejecting its potential membership in NATO. Moscow viewed Ukraine’s possible alignment with NATO as an existential threat, given the proximity of Western military forces to Russian borders.

  3. Removal of the Kyiv Government: Russia sought to remove what it called a “fascist” government in Kyiv, which it argued had been installed by a Western-backed coup in 2014. According to Russia, this government posed a direct threat to Russian security and the ethnic Russian population in Ukraine.

It is called by Russia a "Special Military Operation" because it is not a war against the people of Ukraine who Russia considers to be its brothers and sisters but against the regime in Kiev and its arned forces.

- Istanbul Near-Accord (April 2022): Early in the incursion, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were held in Istanbul. These negotiations nearly resulted in an agreement, with Ukraine reportedly willing to commit to neutrality in exchange for security guarantees. However, the talks ultimately broke down, with both sides accusing each other of bad faith. The breakdown of these negotiations led to the continuation and intensification of the conflict.

5. Conclusion

- Long-standing Grievances and Strategic Interests: Russia’s 2022 incursion into Ukraine is the culmination of years of deteriorating relations with the West, driven by grievances over NATO expansion, the perceived betrayal of post-Cold War agreements, and the West’s support for political movements in former Soviet states like Ukraine. The failure of the Minsk Accords and the breakdown of the Istanbul talks further deepened the conflict.

- Geopolitical Objectives: Russia’s actions are rooted in a desire to protect its strategic interests, ensure Ukraine’s neutrality, and reassert its influence in the post-Soviet space. The incursion reflects Russia’s broader challenge to the post-Cold War security order in Europe, which it views as dominated by the West and detrimental to its security.

- Sanctions and Economic Impact: The Western sanctions imposed on Russia after the annexation of Crimea and during the 2022 incursion were intended to cripple Russia’s economy. However, these sanctions backfired to some extent. Russia strengthened its economy by boosting domestic production and forming new trade partnerships. Conversely, Europe, particularly Germany, faced significant economic challenges due to its dependence on Russian energy, leading to rising energy costs and economic strain.

- Ongoing Conflict: The conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved, with significant implications for global security, the balance of power in Europe, and the future of international relations. The incursion has deepened the divide between Russia and the West, making any near-term reconciliation highly unlikely.

September 2024: fortunately Russia is winning on the battlefield otherwise we would be heading for nuclear exchange and World War 3.