UKRAINE UPDATE

23 August 2024

Would it be true to say that Ukraine has, if not abandoned, then at least refocused from the front line to Cusk? And what might have persuaded it to do so? 

You might also ask why it is continuing to shell the zaporexia nuclear power plant and is also continuing to attempt to bring down the Crimean Bridge. 

And then you have to ask why it is breaking Geneva conventions by taking civilians hostage, blindfolding them and tying their hands behind their back and chucking them into the back lorries as though they were carcasses of meat.

If you put those three points together you have to conclude that the Kiev regime out of desperation is turning to terrorism and indeed it is clear that Russia calls this a special military operation, SMO, because it is not making a war with Ukraine and its people, but just against the regime in Kiev. 

Given the above and that Zielinsky no longer has a mandate, it's also understandable why Russia has said that there is no hope in negotiations with the regime in Kev. 

Thus Russia is only now interested in a military defeat for the kiev regime. This was always one of three stated objectives by Russia (regime change, liberation, no NATO) and Russia might well have lured Ukraine into Koursk in order to finish the first job the Cusk region is just vast almost uninhabited step traversed by Rivers streams narrow roads filled with hills and forests and occasional hamlets and looks like ideal ambush territory for the Russian troops. 

Consider also that Russia has the necessary men, arms and supplies to achieve this, aswhere Ukraine has not enough to run the old and new fronts. In fact, there are just 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers apparently in Cusk... how long will they last? They are the best Kiev have and as they fall they are replaced with more off the main front line. 

So what will happen? I go back to my original point of two years ago... looking at a map, it seems that Russia is going to go and take Odessa - now rhat negotiations are canned why shouldn't it. And probably Transnistria, which is also of Russian vintage. 

It will destroy Ukraine's army, so the more troops Kiev sends to the front lines, the better for the Russian goal. 

It will devastate Western Ukraine to make sure the cost benefit analysis of this conflict is largely in its favour. 

And then it will integrate its new territories, leave the rest of Ukraine to the EU to rebuild at EU taxpayers expense since they have fully committed to support Ukraine. 

And Moscow will put in place a more realistic government in Kiev....another Hungary perhaps.