Thursday, 11 July 2024

UK ELECTION RESULTS 2024

11 July 2024


1. Labour's Victory and the Electoral System

- Labour's win is exaggerated due to the electoral system.
- Voters rejected the Conservatives but didn't fully embrace Labour.

2. Conservative Party's Decline

- Conservative support dropped to 24%, the lowest ever.
- The party now has only 121 MPs, a historic low.
- Support fell most in their defended seats.
- Reform UK's 15% vote share weakened Conservative strongholds.

3. Impact of Reform UK

- Reform UK gained 15% of the vote, winning five seats.
- The rise in Reform support, especially in Conservative-held seats, significantly hurt the Tories.
- Nigel Farage's campaign efforts eroded Conservative support further.

4. Tactical Voting

- Voters chose Labour or Liberal Democrats strategically to defeat Conservatives.
- Labour support rose by six points in Conservative-contested seats.
- Liberal Democrats saw a nine-point rise where they were the main challengers.

5. Labour's Vote Share

- Labour won 35% of the vote, less than previous leaders Corbyn and Blair.
- This is the lowest vote share for a majority government in history.

6. Voter Turnout

- Turnout dropped by eight points to 60%, the second-lowest since 1885.
- Sharpest drop in seats where Labour polled well in 2019.

7. Disproportional Outcome

- The election result highlights the discrepancy between vote share and seats won.
- Labour's exaggerated strength in Commons may spur debate on electoral reform.

8. Challenges for Labour

- Labour's stance on Gaza and its tenure in Wales cost support, especially in Muslim-majority areas.
- To maintain power, Starmer needs to prove his party's capability to handle their new responsibilities.

9. Comparison of Parties

- Reform had a 14% vote share but only won five seats.
- Liberal Democrats, with a 12% vote share, secured 71 seats.
- This discrepancy underscores the disproportionality of the electoral system.

10. Conservative support fell most in their defended seats

1. Meaning of "Defended Seats"

- Definition: "Defended seats" are constituencies currently held by a party that they are trying to retain in an election.

2. Support Fell in Defended Seats

- Impact on Conservatives: The Conservative Party experienced the largest drop in voter support in constituencies they were defending.
- Reason: The disappointment with the results of 14 years of Tory rule was more significant in areas where the Conservatives had previously been relatively strong.

3. Contributing Factors

- Competition from Reform UK: Reform UK gained significant support, particularly in Conservative-held areas, weakening the Conservative vote.
- Voter Fatigue: As above, voters in these constituencies were likely more dissatisfied with the incumbent Conservatives, leading to a greater shift away from the party.

4. Electoral System Impact

- First-Past-the-Post: This system amplifies the loss in defended seats, leading to a significant reduction in the number of seats held by the Conservatives despite the overall vote share.


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